The long – and larger – cycles in economics is our focus today. Sure, a few stories off the wires with our (occasionally) acerbic remark. But with the buzz of the presents wearing off, and perhaps still smarting a bit from our discussion of the economy’s “elevator to nowhere” problem (mythical growth versus inflation adjusted … Read More
Not quite the final column of the year, but 2024 is quickly heading down the drain. A few economic highlights remain. Like the International Trade figures (hang on a sec.). Then next week before the balls drop (ahem…) there’s the Dallas Fed numbers mid-morning Monday. BYOND (bring your own NoDoz). You’ll need to save your strength for … Read More
Early today, the Futures were pricing in a good-sized decline. Dow Futures at 7 AM Eastern were down about 170 and it looked like the S&P and NASDAQ were on similar pathing for four-tenths of a percent drops. Meanwhile, after hitting $106,490 Tuesday, Bitcoins had fallen to the mid $95,000’s. While the market continues to … Read More
Merry Christmas and happy Chanukah! There wasn’t going to be a column today, but the urge to write was running strong so here we are… We will pass on most (but not all) of the daily news flow. Plus we still have the rest of the week to get through… And, above all, we are … Read More
Is there a point, at which, markets can rise no further? A point where the “money coming out” of markets can’t be replaced by the number of new converts to the Church of Greater Fools? For now, it’s an open speculation. But one’s consideration of the “good times” ought to be tempered with some economic … Read More
Before rolling out today’s Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator, a discussion with a colleague over the weekend is worth examining. Because, you see, he is recently retired, multiple degrees, a world traveler, and far more. “You really ought to write a book,” I told him. Years ago, I’d sent him my Clube and Napier collection. … Read More
Reader Notes First: Coal in the stockings? Mega Millions jackpot surges to $944 million after no winner Friday – ABC News. So, off to the gas-mart today for another “Lotteries are for people who can’t handle statistics” visit. Someone in the USN may have a very bad day with the report U.S. Navy Shoots Down … Read More
George announces plans to “play Santa” for one lucky subscriber this coming week. As we will be giving away a whole website with hosting. This would make the perfect gift for someone interested in the link between genetics and diet. Why, done right, this could launch the lucky winner (who ideally would be “medically-minded”) into … Read More
Early this morning (like is 5 AM early for an attorney to call?) my consigliere was on the line. “Seen the Futures? Hearing reports that Biden and Harris were both rushed to the WH about 10:30 PM last night…” Yeah, well that is not likely related to the pending budget debacle which does threaten to start shuttering … Read More
Yes. Market dropped like a free-falling safe Wednesday. And yes, we had a nice 4-digit pop in the Lunch Money account. But this is a move we have been talking about for a long time. For example: Back on November 5th I wrote that: “Early futures were (predictably) up because the real close Monday was … Read More
The FOMC statement just came out. The simple take? “In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the … Read More
Want to build a counter to the Weapons of Mass Deception? Today we examine the Tower of Babel, and the role of conceptually extensible, functional, peer-to-peer social networks (without censoring middlepersons and dataware), In order to think a bit in guerilla terms about meaningful digital change. With $37 /$158 trillion of debt and climbing unsustainably … Read More
There are three very troubling observations in our data, today. The first is the outsized influence of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks on the indices. While “the Q’s” have been smoking, we are seeing telltale (long-lead time) speculations like Are the Magnificent Seven doomed to underperform in 2025? With the Fed meeting today, and a … Read More