The Solution No One Wants to Talk About

Tired of hearing endlessly about the Ceiling and the Shutdown? Well, there really is a solution no one talks about but it’s a very ugly and messy one. Many times in the past, we have referred to our purely hypothetical Directorate 153 as being a kind of Central Command for a shadow government which really drives US sociopolitical operations. Envisioned as being an outgrowth of the Cold War, when the US was at a long-term strategic disadvantage in policy implementation, due to the longer duration of Soviet and now Federation (State Duma) committee plans, our hypothesized Directorate at least gives the West a somewhat equalized footing on the timeline; one less subject to political breezes that blow through Washington in the wake of each election. This morning, after a cup and a crumpet, we’ll consider what we do best around here:

Interplanet Janet’s Rally – Change Point Weekend

She travels like a rocket with her comet team, and there’s never been a planet Janet hasn’t seen…”  That’s one of the lines in the Schoolhouse Rock episode which I mention this morning because I loved the rally yesterday.  OK, so a little later than I expected, but the bottom line here is this:  The prospect of a new Fed boss who’s going to make Ben Bernanke’s helicopters look puny could just push the market on to new highs any old time.

Maybe it’s just a coincidence, but the latest Money Stocks report from the Fed shows M1 up at an annualized 8.3% for the month recent three months and similarly, M2 is up 8.2% for the three months, so maybe Led Zeppelin should rename word the song printing a stairway to heaven…

But, before we go there, the troublesome 1,690 line on the S&P remains and it’s best captured in Forbidden Zone’s “Bim Bam Boom” in terms of how it all works out.

As long as I have my world’s first EconoJay  (e-J) hat on this morning, here’s a song to play which summed up what we figure will be Interplanet Janet’s Fed policy in a nutshell.

Now, this is where things get interesting. I don’t think the prospect of buying a stairway to heaven (or printing it, either) will work, so Ures truly waded back in to his next wild-ass short side trade at the market highs yesterday.

NO!  This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.  This is a crazy man barking at the moon, but is there a chance that the market could briefly venture over that 1,690 level today and touch back down on Earth before the close?  We should know in a week or two who’s more irrational: me or the markets.

Budget Follies Will Decide

I should play poker with John Boehner sometime…and hopefully, if we ever do, he should bring a big bankroll with him because I’m gonna get rich off off him. 

Why?  Lousy poker player.  Obama called his bluff and Boehner folded…so this morning more talk is expected, but Boehner, who’s quickly losing support of the Tea Party wing for being to accommodative on the debt ceiling is also basically handing over the GOP’s future in 2016 by not hammering on the reality of what’s going down.

The issue, as I’ve tried ever-so-gently to explain is compound interest…and nothing more.  All Boehner would need to say is “Our Country is Blowing Up and the American people will not see their home foreclosed, the job-jacks to India, and then bless this administration’s bankrupting the US dollar to boot!”

Boehner won’t have the balls to get down and call it like it is.  Nor will he point out the heresy of claiming poor on budget and then having shock troops enough to turn away veterans from the Memorial while allowing pro immigration promotion at virtually the same time.

Nor, will he say the boondoggles which Faux News has been rolling out, are mostly at the feet of Fearless Leader not actuarial science.

Still, the government remains shut down, and despite the Interplanet Janet blastoff to the markets, I wouldn’t be surprised by a first stage burnout when people figure out that gravity (and pernicious debt-driven inflation) are not so easily fooled.

But for this morning, we should see a few more of the people, some of the time as futures are pointing to an effort to achieve orbit.  My money says it may look like Sputnik, but remember, the first satellite was up only 90-days. 

The markets should be so lucky.

With public confidence in both the poker player in chief and the inarticulate budget-aware realists cratering, polls are showing a high level of distrust and disgust.

It’s one thing to say the markets can “climb a wall of worry.”  It’s entirely another question when we ask “Can markets climb an asylum wall?”

More to the point, when was the last time a market staged a serious rally when 60% of poll respondents said to fire every member of congress?

Look for video later this morning as truckers plan to Ride for the Constitution.  And to be followed Sunday by a Million Veteran March at 9 AM at the National World War II Memorial.

Enough is too much and potential is high that this will be a change point weekend.

More After This…

 

JP Bleedin’

So, how does it feel to post a loss of a third of a billion plus?  Might want to ask the execs at JP Morgan which took a $7.2 billion legal hit this quarter.  Meantime, where there’s a fail, there’s a sale, as we say around here.  So word’s out this morning that JPM is looking to sell its commodities biz

Always ready to snap up a deal, I’ll call a couple of buddies and I’m sure we could make an offer.  I’m thinking about a $1,000 in cash and the seller to take back a note with no recourse to buyers.  Want in? LOL….  Oh, did I mention the no liabilities for past transactions clause?

Mideast Killing Fields

There’s so much murder and mayhem going on in the Middle East these days it could provide many lifetimes of storylines for someone like Joseph Wambaugh.  Here’s the latest body count:

Syria:  190  Number of civilians executes says Human Rights Watch.

Iraq: 42:   Number of people executed in a “clean up the streets” campaign following sectarian violence.

Also related:  the dynamite-paid Peace Prize has gone to a chemical weapons watchdog groupWiki fact check:

Dynamite was invented by the Swedish chemist and engineer Alfred Nobel in Geesthacht, Germany, and patented in 1867.

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Coping: SimOfTheDead and other WuJo Implicates

We have a longish discussion of WuJo this morning, one with many reports, some interesting speculations, and even some directions for additional research, so let’s get after it, shall we?

A numbers of readers took the time to comment (thank you) on the events this week which seemed to describe a “teleportation” event.  If you missed yesterday’s column, she (thought) she’d shut down everything in the living/media room and come to bed, only to awaken a few hours later, luxuriating in the comfort of the bed, only to open her eyes and discover she was still in the living room. 

Reader Dan picks up the trail from there?

Does Elaine recall around what time she thought she came to bed but didn’t?

Last (also Wed- G)  night my wife and I had a brief time-slip wujo moment ourselves.  I think it was around 11:20 pm Eastern because we had just watched the weather forecast on the 11pm news:

I was in the kitchen getting some water.  I use a water filter pitcher and filled my glass from it.  I turned around to take my glass out to the living room and my wife asked me to fill her glass before she went to bed.  I went back into the kitchen, opened the fridge but the pitcher was missing.  I looked in the sink and it was there, having just been filled with more water but the lid was still off and the pitcher was just sitting there full of water.  Okay, I must have filled my glass, decided that the pitcher needed filling, put it in the sink, filled it, but just left it there in the sink without replacing the lid.  Mind you, no alcohol or any other things consumed last night, and I routinely stay up until after midnight so I was definitely not too tired yet.  I was just about to pass it off as a slip of the mind albeit something that is not common to me but then my wife exclaims “what happened to my phone?”

I went back out to the living room to see what she was talking about and she said she was getting ready for bed and set her phone down but now it is gone.  She went into the bedroom and found it on the bed next to the nightstand but did not recall going in there to place it there.  This had occurred at the exact same time as I had apparently filled the water pitcher.

So in summary, sometime around 11:20 pm Eastern both my wife and I took action on an object, moving it somewhere, without having any recollection.  And we did it at the exact same moment.

As soon as I realized that, I chalked it up as a Wujo moment and made a mental note to write you about it.  Well, after reading Elaine’s experience, I can only wonder if it happened around the same time?

It was really strange, and I asked her about the possibility that she might have gone through one of those “abduction” experiences that we read so much about on the net. 

Two points: First she admitted that she had an odd sore on the inside of her lower lip, something that didn’t seem like it was a normal (as in bite your lip) kind of experience.  First, because she doesn’t bite her lip and secondly because of what she said about it…

“I was going to mention it, too, now that you asked, but I talked myself out of it…you know…don’t want to make too big a deal about it.  And besides, it has gotten better (less painful) as the day’s worn on…”

The other oddity that persists:  She’s extremely uncomfortable just talking about it such that even trying to remember details about it makes her uncomfortable.

Next time it happens, I’ve made sure that Elaine knows what the immediate follow-up will be:  Run to the bedroom and see if the bed there – the real one, one the tactile/dream-state version – feels like it’s been slept in and is warm.  That would have been a useful clue.

And though she’s too polite to mention it, in going over the details with her (for the umpteenth time) she pointed out I was in error reporting that she woke up in the media chair with the comforter on it (the west chair).  She’d awaked with all that tactile stuff in my chair, the east chair and it didn’t have anything on it…just a leather recliner.

Barring a reoccurrence, not much else to say about the case now but it goes into our files as an unsolved mystery.

A WuJo Puzzle Solved!

The good news now is that at least some of the mystery behind some of those “hum” stories is starting to peek out due to some diligent detective work by reader Cris.  If you hear “the hum” or the sound of “heavy machinery, almost like a diesel running at night” read this one for sure:

I’ve been hearing this for years off and on; a low hum that seems to come out of the very ground and I put it in the unexplained category until a few days ago…..

I was checking the upstairs toilet for leaks (there were none) and turned away after I thought the tank had filled….. No sound of running water for at least a full 60 seconds when: the hum began.  I happened to look in the tank, saw ripples and pushed down on the float….
The hum stopped and I could turn it on and off at will by pressing on the float!  Once the tank overfilled it could no longer be induced to make the noise.

A mundane explanation for a VERY spooky sound.  The delay was long enough that you would not think having just flushed.  Very common valve assembly of Asian manufacture,
Cris

And this might explain some of the sounds in other areas, too (thinking the Windsor or Taos hums, too):  Could it be that a larger but similarly designed valve is being used at a local waterworks and it’s seating allows for some hum-inducing vibration?

Something to check on, next time you hear it in the middle of the night.  Get up wit the flashlight and check the loo….

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Waiting for the Big Distraction

The heat is on in Washington where headlines questioning the omniscience of the Obama administration are popping up all over the place.  For one, there’s the matter of the GOP digging in on the debt ceiling, although admittedly, Obama may win on this one when the GOP caves in, which should (predictably) happen in the final hours going into next week.

And the rabid right is making the most of it with one writing “Democrats to America: We own the government!”  Another decries how inarticulate republicans are, while the bloviator-in-chief notes Obama’s approval ranking and questions how repubs can question how they’re losing…

One of our well-connected sources called from the low-rent district of “203-land” to bemoan the obvious:  Actuarial reality is that America’s debt monster is anything but solved and appointing Janet Yellen to the Fed won’t change any of the hard physics of compound interest.

Sadly, the brief respite in debt growth claimed by the administration’s apologists is more attributable to falling interest rates and debt growth will go absolutely crazy when rates begin to rise.  The same for the mis-named “shutdown.”  Looks good on paper now, but when the back pay comes through…

But we have other problems as well:  For one, TechDirt is bemoaning the quality of the Affordable Care Act website and “We paid $634 million for the Obamacare sites and all we got was this lousy 404…”

What’s more, a growing chorus is beginning to wonder “If the system doesn’t work, how can people be penalized?”

Well, the answer here is simple:  Read Kafka!  Wiki it!

During 1914, Kafka began the novel Der Process (The Trial),[124] the story of a man arrested and prosecuted by a remote, inaccessible authority, with the nature of his crime revealed neither to him nor to the reader. Kafka did not complete the novel, although he finished the final chapter.

And it’s here that we find the delicious irony of a Thursday morning:  Just as Kafka didn’t finish his novel, so too ‘Merica seems to be in a terrible rush to finishing the final chapter without filling in the blanks along the way.

Amazingly, the stock market is buying it:  Futures this morning are up 123 on the Dow which should about finish off the “Princess Janet” rally.  Like fans of Kafka, who seemed not too bothered by the holes in “The Trial” fans of Yellen are happy that easy money and keep on printing is the route ahead.

Besides, the holes in economic thought are probably just those damn actuarial realities that an East Texas curmudgeon keeps mentioning.  That and the mistaken belief that there are jobs left to puff-up with again.  The reality of automation’s contribution to structural employment won’t been seen until too late.

In the meantime, the Janet Express should drive the S&P back to 1,700 and maybe new highs  just as soon as the GOP caves in.  If it doesn’t happen?  Well, cue the Big Distraction and let’s grab some more powers once reserved to the States and try again, shall we?

More after this…

Jesse Ventura in 2016!

Already a Facebook site trying to get him on the ballot in all 50-states.  I, for one, would vote for him.  And if Hillary runs?  Can I vote twice, please?  Hey…maybe if I could lose my proof of citizenship, ya think?

Middle East Roulette

Our first spin of the Big Wheel of Life landed on Saudi Arabia where the powers that tent are looking for how to deal with the US burying the hatchet with (instead of in ) Iran.

Our second spin came up Triple Zero…but that turned out to be a typo, so it must have been Tripoli where the prime minster was held by rebel gunmen  for a while, then released.  No accounting for how that works…if this was any kind of ‘Merican gang, he’d have been dropped and popped, but maybe there is a different code of honor there.

Our third spin of the Big Wheel came up “6” which I can only assume means the six soldiers who were killed this week near the Suez Canal which is starting to look like its own little craps table.

“Big Shooter Coming Out?”

Speaking of gambling,  the odds and such: We have to comment on the blessedly lousy aim of our scheduled “Murder Cycle/Outrage” case which came along one day behind schedule, showing up in Wheeling West Virginia, of all places.  Turns out that although 15-20 shots were fired, no one was hit but the would-be killer who was taken down by  security officers.

And, in terms of a better date match, a curious “open carry” report came out of Green Bay…but no harm was intended there, seems.

We’ve set an alarm to mention this cycle when it comes up again in March of next year, or so.

Climate Disaster,  Big, Ugly Winter?

Despite there being a government shutdown, thanks to the hard working people at NOAA who track such things, the monthly solar cycle update is out, and it continues to show the current Solar Cycle is in epic fail mode.  I mean seriously colder sun…

Now, this is not meant to send you scurrying for the dust bunnies under the bed, or anything, but please think through what a return to a Dalton Minimum would be like.  I suppose I could suggested a petition to the White House to name this the Ure Minimum when it is eventually realized as having occurred, but I haven’t seen petitions get much done there, so I’m thinking it may not be worth the effort.

Nobel Dreams

Still, while I wait for my Nobel Prize in Mental Clarity (a prize they haven’t seen the wisdom of awarding yet, but what do you expect when dynamite money hands out “peace” prizes, right?)  I should mention the Nobel Prize in lit to Alice Munro.

We have an arrangement, I think:  I haven’t read any of her books, but I doubt she’s read any of mine, either.  Fair’s fair.

Buzz Word of the Day

Cyberchondriac:  Someone who self diagnoses on the web.  Although yes, your voice dropping into a falsetto could mean low-T… or it’s time to call 1-800-genderbend.  Operators are standing by, this is a free call.

Licensing Beggars

Sounds like something out of India (OK, without deliberately maiming kids so they make more money) but if you ever doubted my contention that ‘Merican’s lifestyles are being systematically flushed down to old crapperoo, here’s proof as Middle Township, New Jersey wants to license pan-handlers.

In order not to be confused with Kafka, the permit is free.

Backassward Edjumacation

Used to be that students would go to school to learn, and come how to do their writing (as in homework).  But Madison Avenue Mike’s find of morning in the NY Times is a story about how kids are being sent home to watch video lectures and then come to school to do their homework there

Amazingly, it seems to be working.

Lonesome Planet

One of those oddities around the net is the notion that the planet Venus just sort of showed up at some point in our remote past, swept into our solar system, caused a calamity on Mars and finally took up station in its present orbit.  All stuff of internet lore and we could argue the science of it all day long.

But look this morning at the NBC Science story about how a lonesome planet – without a Sun – has been spotted and this means that yes, there may be orphaned planets out there waiting to be captured and in the process, yes, they could cause Velikovsky-sized planetary calamity.

Truth of Chinaquenses

We’re please by a report from reader Roaming Ron, that UrbanSurvival is once again available in China:

Hi George,

As I had to report last time here UrbanSurvival was blocked, I’m happy to report now I found out coming back to China for some months to stay yesterday that some Liberalization’s coming here luckily: I can (and so everybody else here) access your site again.

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Coping: Thursday at the Wujo

I’m a reasonable guy and all, but when the WuJo stuff starts happening in my own home to a highly reliable wife, it leads to a very big WTF moment.  Here’s what happened.

I woke up this morning and trying to catch up on sleep sort of half-snoozed until 4:30AM.  At which time I hear Elaine ask…

Are you awake, George?

I admitted I was and that I’d be getting up in a minute or two and sorry if I woke her with my tossing about.  And then she related this bizarre story:

Last night, I come to get bed and I got all snuggled in.  A dozed off for a while, you know, how you will sometimes when going to sleep?

Anyway, I was enjoying the comfort of the bed, feeling the covers, feeling happy and safe when I – for some reason – opened my eyes.

I was shocked!

Somehow I had been transported back into the living…a light was on, the TV was on, the audio says was on, and there was a show on at very low volume.

I have no idea how that happened.  But I was in one of the leather recliners, I had a comforter, but it felt different than the covers that I’d felt only a few seconds before.

It bothers me….”

Questioned further, she couldn’t recall any of the specifics about the “going to bed process.”  You know…what was the last show on TV?  Do you remember turning off the light?  Did you click off the audio system?  Do you remember touching the remotes?

No, but even THAT is weird.  I did all those things again and it was just like I had done them earlier..and it just….you know…bothers me!”

I was going to ask her if she remembered anything else being odd – had there been any odd lights around as she dozed off the first time?  I’ll also follow up on how similar the comforter in the leather chair (side-by-side media chairs) felt to the covers in the bed…that kind of thing.

It is possible, even likely that what she experienced was simply dozing off in the media chair, and projecting that she was in bed?  Yes, and I’d venture the odds on that are 80 percent – or better.

But the part that concerns me is the feeling after the fact of being “bothered” by it all.  So here in a while, when she gets up, I’ll ask her to note if there are any new cuts, bruises or wounds that weren’t around last night.  Although the odds are a tiny fraction of one percent, this is the kind of thing that is sometimes reported around “abduction” cases, especially the feeling bothered part, so it I’ll keep you posted on any follow-up.

Around the Ranch:  The Left Mag Oddity

Elaine’s story was not the first odd thing that happened yesterday. I had posted Peoplenomics early and made it down to our hangar where our old Beechcrate lives.  In order to be ‘legal’ to take Elaine with me flying, I need to maintain currency which means – under VFR flight rules, three full-stop landings in the last 90 days in the aircraft type and category.

Since I hadn’t touched the plane for 92 days (since our big Connecticut trip) I decided to bring down the air compressor, top off the tires (they lose a tiny bit of air sitting, and since we’re going up to Branson for our annual confab with Robin Landry and to compare notes one of these days, I thought a perfectly clear, crisp, fall morning would be ideal…

Everything went fine, of course.

I did three of the nicest short-field landings I’ve every done.  And to give you an idea, I “borrowed” a satellite view of the airport off Google and I sketched in the approach, braking area, turn-around, taxiway, and so it again route.

To do three landings with 600-foot (and less) rollout after being “hands off” for 90+ days seemed pretty good to me.  The first one was 10-degrees of flaps, the last one (about 450-feet worth) was full flaps, and the final one was two notches.

Because I’m still catching up on things from our road trip, I only had six landings in the simulator, but with the vortex generators, the trick is to come in at an approach speed where the stall warning is just coming one, since the “break” to the stall is about 6 MPH under that…no bounces and I was mighty pleased with myself.

But back to the weird part of this.  I noticed on my last go-round of the pattern that the engine was not “turning up” like it should be.  It was only making 2,250 RPM and usually it was 2,450 or higher, even during an aggressive climb.  I leaned it out, slightly, which brought it up to 2,325, or so, and landed.

So here is the weird part:  Every pilot before take-off goes through an extensive checklist which is called CIGARS:  Controls, Instruments, Gas, Attitude, Run-up, and Safety.

In the Run-up there are a couple of things that take place:  You apply the brakes full on.  run the engine RPM up to 2000, then click the ignition two clicks right to run on the right mag only, then two clicks back to it is running smooth. A difference of more than 75-100 RPM can be a sign of plug or mag issues. 

Then you do it again, only this time it’s one click left and then one click back to the right to check the other mag.  After pulling on carb heat, to make sure that’s working right,  you’re set to complete the  S part of CIGARS (door secured?  Seat belt tight?  Any loose objects in the cabin?) and off you go to announcing your departure with something like “Palestine traffic, Musketeer7912-lima rolling for takeoff on runway 18, staying in the pattern…”

So how did the mags get over onto the wrong (single mag) spot after twice around the pattern?  I have no clue, but I remember thinking at the time when I sourced the problem on the ground after deciding to go ahead and land rather than go through the low engine power checklist, since the first rule of piloting is “First, fly the airplane…”  And if you’re ready to chop engine power and land anyway, the right thing to do is come in a tad high so you’ve got plenty of room to land even if the low RPM issue goes to zero.

Still…the question lingered all the way home from the airport:  How did that mag switch get turned like that?  It’s not one of those things you screw up on, and the odds of the switch being “split” and falling off to the single mag position is about zero.  Hmmm…

Phone WuJo?

Reader CM reports an oddity of the WuJo stripe, only it involved phones…

Hey there George,

I got a good one….

We have a large house and we have two cordless telephones one for each end.

In February my wife complained that one of the phones was not recharging properly.

after swapping out the battery with a new one and that not helping, I opted to buy a new phone.

The new one was delivered and worked great for about two weeks…..then it was just gone.

We looked everywhere called it but no sound etc.,,,,,,, looked EVERWHERE FOR DAYS….

Finally I decided to buy a new one again……This all took place by early this summer.

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Yellen over Kohn: A Vision of What’s to Come

It’s a buzz. A vibration that permeates the soul that I haven’t felt in years. The last locks on a tumbler of an incredibly complex lock mechanism finally falling into place at last and revealing a graceful treasure within. Unfortunately, what is unlocked if the future, as a design comes into view; one that’s at once horrifying because of the magnitude of change it will be to the unwary, but – in a curious way – one that preserves America as a country while ceding the obvious: We aren’t the only country of power in the world, anymore.

Special Peoplenomics Subscriber Update

Although I don’t offer trading advice, I note that the “Wild-ass trade” that I described and entered into last Thursday is now solidly in the money. I took profits early, but still made a few bucks on the turn. I’ve been on the phone, what can I say. As of posting time Tuesday (about 3:05 PM EDT) here’s how the trade worked out:

Why We’ll “Stiff” China…

As we awaken from another restful night of slumber (waking to the economic nightmare unfolding on this side of the dream boundary in real life) we see that China is now expressing concerns about being stiffed on their $1.3-trillion of US denominated assets. So what else is new?

The truth is, China may talk tough, but there’s little they can do.  Oh sure, the US could have its debt rating fall as a result (and who knows how far) but that, paradoxically, would maybe be just the right medicine to force an incoming Fed boss (due to replace Ben Bernanke) into levering a rise in short-term interest rates here in the US.

I’ll outline the whole scenario in tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report (which may be posted early after markets close today).  But the short version is that a return to the 2009 economics lows and a Dow of 5,000 could result in the short term, but the long-term outcome from raising rates might actually save the country.  Remember: Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 and in cyclical economics, it’s time for a new world (monetary) order…and countries are likely to hammer gold prices in order to suck up enough yellow metal to buy into a new global SDR scheme.

Meantime, the 83% federal government has enough horsepower to ensure the arrest US Veterans at the NYC which is about as disgusting as you can get.  I was talking with my local freight delivery guy last night and he summed it up about as well as any comments I’ve heard so far:  ”These old boys took the Pacific back from Japan…and now they can’t gather at their own monument?  They ain’t gonna put up with that, for damn sure…”   Amen.

Meantime, there seems to be enough money to buy a $47,174 mechanical bull, reports CNS.

We can reliably report that government now owns both types, huh?

And as if that’s not enough, here comes a report that the Treasury has just “made up” $8.3 trillion in debt to replace $7.5 trillion worth being retired for a net increase of  $0.77-trillion.  Don’t ask me how that works in light of the supposed budget ceiling because I can’t explain it (or the Easter bunny) either.

The BIG RESET is Coming…

This is ugly, but pay attention here.  The phone range about 6 AM and it a my well-connected Wall St. Source (who must remain unnamed).

You know what’s going on here, right?  Everyone with two-cents worth of actuarial brains knows America needs a huge actuarial reset and there’s only going to be one way to get there.  We need to default, have a crisis, wipe out 50-80% of the market value, force money out of dead pools in bonds and get things rolling again…

Discussions with this source are at the core of tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report, but he continued on this morning’s point…

Meredith Whitney was right…and about the only mistake she made was that in the “heat of the sound bite moment, she didn’t correct a couple of her numbers and her critics creamed her for it….”

“But you’re saying she’ll be right?”

“The numbers may be different, but the kinds of effects she was talking about?  Sure,…different timeline of course…”

“What about all your fellow wealth managers who are screaming dollar collapse and touting gold?”

Look, everyone needs the crash and reset.  The German Constitutional Court is going to come back with their ruling that the OMTs (outright monetary transactions with German EU money)) are illegal, and that’s going to bury the Euro.  Everyone in the world is going to have to get into a new partially gold-backed systems of SDR’s and it’s out there in IMF working papers from 2010.

the budget impasse isn’t going to be solved, and you know why?  Obama is aligned with the tea party right now…the administration knows that not only the whole country but lots of state and local governments are on the actuarial skids and are about to blow up anyway…but the Four Horsemen (Pelosi, Reid, McConnell and Boehner) are all in denial mode and don’t see the actuarial reality.

But you go down this morning to your local Wal-Mart parking lot and ask people this morning “Is America’s economy in a sustainable position?” and I bet you 80-85% of people will admit it’s not.  We can’t have all these people in retirement making more than working people today…it just doesn’t make economic sense and it needs to be sorted out and it’s going to hurt…

That’s the Big Reset… and the people who think we’re going to roll right into hyperinflation are going to get killed…what can I say?  Every time a bunch of Americans get on one side of an economic issue they are almost inevitably wrong…why would that change now?”

In addition, my insider was pleased with the increase in volatility in yesterday’s trading action.  And even more interesting?  His outlook at the S&P could blow off more than 200 points between now and Christmas.

Whether he’ll be right, remains to be seen.  But with what’s ahead, his call about Don Kohn as a great Fed choice to replace Ben Bernanke is looking pretty interesting, given Kohn’s experience managing in crisis.  As to timing?  Let the markets drop some more, let Wall St.

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Coping: WuJo in the Gear?

Noting beats a second cup of coffee (*still spiked with some Kona roast from Hawaii eyes Hank K who’s been mysteriously quiet lately) than a fine Wujo report like this one from reader Tim:

George,

Recent wujo for your files.

Last week I participated in an annual fall festival at our hometown. The normally dry festival received lots of rain and was basically washed out until mid-afternoon.

While setting up our booth in the pre-dawn rain, I placed a single key (with its distinctive PURPLE tag) inside the pocket of my rain jacket (a nifty Gear brand I picked up in the PNW). I zipped up the pocket to ensure the key would not get lost.

After the day’s event, the key disappeared. We looked everywhere for it.

Checked all pockets of all clothing, backpacks, foldable awning bags, etc… The key absolutely disappeared. Checked shelves, jewelry boxes, sidewalks leading to the house, multiple cars and trucks.

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Something in the Punch Bowl

Yes, this morning we’ve about to pick up the scent of something – and it ain’t Everclear – in the big punch bowl of markets.  This as the Chinese market dropped 0.71% overnight, Japan was down  1.22% (a glowing performance, huh?) while in Europe this morning, the free lunchers are down 1% in France, 1.11% in Germany, and 0.86% in the Unemployed Kingdom.

As I outlined in my wild-ass trade report for Peoplenomics readers last week, this could all get whipped up since today is when our 148-day (+/- 2 days) “murder” cycle hits, so don’t get all worked up if some kind of public outrage pops later today, too.

The good news, such as any of this is, might be that we have see a way ahead which could declaw the corporate tigers, return the world to something approaching financial  sanity, as well as allow the US a graceful exit from debt burdens.  The bad news is that it’s going to hurt – a lot – and the average lifestyle in America will suffer a bit…oh, a lot then, but at least there is a way forward which will be outlined Wednesday for Peoplenomics readers.

For now, my wild trade is looking less wild, and with every hour of downtime for the Obamacare online systems, confidence in the ability of government to do things right is waning.

Which means an “attention-shifter” would be just what the doctor ordered, so expect that to wander along and take center stage any old time now. 

Governments, as a rule, don’t like it when large numbers of people starting pointing and yelling things about the Emperor’s clothes, as such, and so – just to remind us who’s in charge – we need some drama to come in and make that point, again, and again.  So it’s now due.

Showtime in Libya, Mideast

Indeed, government does claim it’s getting things right, now and then, as might be posited to have been the case this weekend as a Libyan al Qaeda perp was busted out of country and renditioned by US Special Forces.

Of course, down in the fine print we read how this fellow, Nazih Abdul-Hamed al-Ruqai, is wanted for his alleged involvement in embassy attacks in Tanzania and Kenya that date back to 1998 which happened (check me on this, it’s early) 15-freaking years ago.

The little matter of sending US forces into Libya, a country with whom we are not presently at war, has SecState John Kerry preemptively saying it’s all right and legal and such, which – as you’d expect – Libya ain’t swallowing.

Then there’s the tarnish of SEAL Team Six street creds with a raid gone badly in Somalia.

Meantime, once-upon-a-time tourism destination Egypt is back in the blender this morning (on frappé by the look of it) as more than 50-people are reported dead amid rival demonstrations.

Laughably, the headline “Russia, U.S. Push Forward on Syria Meeting” sounds oddly hollow…like everyone who matters hasn’t heard the reports that a “Saudi black op team behind Damascus chem weapons attack – diplomatic sources…

Like the government pseudo-shutdown in the US, the global geopolitick this morning is just more theater.  Not good theater, mind you…just theater that seems to be trying to present the longest play in world history.  It’s already outrun the 30-Years War.  We’re at 46-years, if we start the performance from the 1967 war…

Somewhere along in here, you’re no doubt wondering “Gee, G, how come you didn’t lead with the latest on the government shutdown crap that’s all over the MSM this morning?

Well, Iron Butterfly, or Grasslicker, or whatever you call yourself, the real story of the day is likely that the whole Mideast brouhaha is heading toward a MuBro grab of the Suez Canal if you look closely.  When you start to read stories on Al Jazeera like “Sinai on the brink “
Can stability be brought to the volatile region that is home to one of the world’s most important waterways
?”  — we already know what the answer is:

No.

The West has a nappy-habit of seriously misreading and underestimating our enemies going back to Yamamoto.

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Coping: Monday at the (near) WuJo

A couple of interesting case reports to ponder as we look at how the oddities in Life roll past us.  Although, whether these are mere statistical improbabilities or outright WuJo events is something I’ll leave to your discernment:

George – longtime lurker – thx for the continuing insights and thought-provoking conversations.  I must comment on the found toys mentioned in your Friday column.

A couple of decades ago, Life dumped me out in the middle of the Mohave Desert.  I was in fact entering a time of my life I semi-jokingly refer to as my “convent years” but the Universe was setting me up for quantum spiritual expansion.  Some of my only friends out there were a pair of Ravens, and we began one of the most fascinating relationships I’d ever experienced.  I have stories about them that could fill volumes, but the reason I am writing is to tell you what happened when my precious 33 year old horse finally had to be put down.  I had him buried on my property and errected a simple monument to the great old soul that he was.  In working through my grief, I talked to my two Ravens about “Big Red the Wonder Horse”. 

The next time I walked out to the grave of Big Red, two objects were sitting on the fresh earth.  Two little well-worn toys.  One was a carousel horse with a little teddy-bear astride his back.  The other was a small matchbox-type semi-tractor….bright red. This was a remote area, no chance of children or anyone else coming to my property.   I have always believed these items were placed on Big Red’s grave by my Raven friends.  It gave me great comfort, and still does.

God Bless,

GoldilocksArizona

To my way of thinking is the a likely Wujo event…. next? 

This isn’t Wujo, but it’s near and nice to read about pleasant experiences now and then…

Hi, George,
I had a good experience today.
A few weeks ago, I noticed that I had lost my silver ring.  It meant something to me as I had purchased it at a gift shop at the Grand Canyon last October while I was on a 3100 mile round trip motorcycle trip with my husband.  Yes, I rode my own motorcycle all that way, so the ring was a reminder of that incredible experience, so I noticed the angst from losing it, but didn’t really know where to start looking as it had fallen off my finger and that was that.  I did not expect to ever find it again.
My husband and I have honored our Father, we have taken care of my dear Dad now for over 8 years and with working and commuting, some of our own chores get behind.  Today, I had a chance to get some housework done.  I had let laundry pile up on my guest room bed so today I was folding it all to put it all away.
As I was folding and organizing, there at the bottom of the pile was my ring!  Wow!  That was a big NICE surprise.  I was kinda shocked.  I thanked God and kept folding.
Then, as I was sorting some papers from my car that had also landed on the bed, a white bank envelope revealed itself….and there was $41.00 in it!
Wow!  A second grateful thank God came out of my mouth and I was so excited to share these 2 finds with my husband.
I don’t know if it is wujo, but I think it is an excellent sign of a reminder to me, that as small as my concerns are, I have not been forgotten!
Sincerely,
Giselle (Austin)

Computer!  Send a note to Giselle and Hubby that they should consider their next ride was the Iron Butt Association ride.  The Big Tex Rally comes up on the 18th and 19th but registration for that is already closed…but maybe next time…I assume you know about the national motorcycle events calendar over here?

I’ll Stick with Data

Madison Avenue Mike has passed along a real gem here – an online test by the NY Times that let’s you see how well you can sense people’s emotions by “reading their eyes…”

Naturally, I took the test, imagining as I did, what the rest of the person’s face would look like to go with the eyes and then guessing from there…

I scored a (lousy) 18 out of 38 which means I ought to have a hard time understanding a person’s mental state via facing clues.  But that’s OK, since I tend to make up for it by having fairly acute hearing/auditory skills and understand externalities that drive people.

Given a glance into someone’s eyes, I’ll take their bank balance, age, and other data, rather than just let the “eyes have it” thanks.

Around the Ranch: 

Dealing With “Design” Matters

Elaine and I had a most interesting discussion on Sunday and it’s symptomatic of something which has been bothering me for a long time – namely the role of design versus the role of function when it comes to building things.

The conversation started when I remarked about the wood order that I’d be picking up, this week or next, to frame in, finish roofing, then wire, insulate, sheetrock, and finish the deck at the north end of our old mobile home (modular, if you insist) out here in the woods of East Texas.

I figured I’d need about 47 eight food two-by-fours and 10-sheets of roofing metal to make it weather-tight and some windows (which I’ve been scanning Craigslist for, but we may have to resort to Lowes on).

Somewhere along the way – about the discussion of the metal roofing – Elaine postulated that there may be some reason for modern roofing to be flat with ridges every 6-10 inches, instead of the old corrugated roofing which was simply a bend or roll every 3 inches, or so.

Carrying the thought further, she began wondering if the design change had something to do with how water is controlled coming off the roof and she mused a bit about how there must be some design aspect to the roofing metal that was non-apparent.

Marketing, is what it is all about, dear…” I explained.   I then extolled my viewpoint for a few minutes about how by having a particular design with ribs in the metal x inches and flat valleys, a big retailer like Lowes  would have a reason to stick with one brand of roofing metal over time…so that people like me who buy part of a project, and then come along later to finish it off, will still have access to the same material.

Another factor is likely building codes,” I proffered.   “By having the ridges in the metal every x inches, the metal would tell any idiot-level installer (I noticed the kitchen mirror) how to space out fasteners to meet building codes.”

Another idea I tossed out was that in the old days, corrugated was made one way, and flat & valley was rolled another…as machinery and dies to roll metal have advanced from the invention of “corrugated galvanized iron” which goes back nearly 200 years according to Wikipedia:

Corrugated galvanised iron (colloquially corrugated iron or pailing (in Caribbean English), occasionally abbreviated CGI) is a building material composed of sheets of hot-dip galvanised mild steel, cold-rolled to produce a linear corrugated pattern in them. The corrugations increase the bending strength of the sheet in the direction perpendicular to the corrugations, but not parallel to them. Normally each sheet is manufactured longer in its strong direction.

CGI is lightweight and easily transported. It was and still is widely used especially in rural and military buildings such as sheds and water tanks. Its unique properties were used in the development of countries like Australia from the 1840s, and it is still helping developing countries today.

File:Corrugated iron manual roller.JPGCGI was invented in the 1820s in Britain by Henry Palmer, architect and engineer to the London Dock Company.

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Saturday Housekeeping: Kohn in the Wings?

That “wild trade” that I put on Thursday was beginning to look like a turkey by late Friday and maybe that $100 lotto ticket will blow up…so we’ll scan the news this morning and look at signs and portents. And sniff around the Economic Stabilization Fund again, which may be back in business and manipulating US Markets. Did I mention key source whispered this morning that Donald Kohn might well be the next Fed boss, not Janet Yellen? Then there’s a question about Bitcoin which has come up, and then we go through the charts for the week which (damn!

“Land of Strange” (and the 50.8 Year K-Wave)

The specifics of the oddities going on in ‘Merica right now have become so widespread and pervasive that I’ve put on a most unusual trade in my personal account as of Thursday.  And by way of explanation, there is a special Peoplenomics report out this morning because this one wouldn’t wait for Saturday.  Subscribers can read it here.  And, if you’re not a subscriber ($20 for five months or $40 for a whole year) you can sign up over here.

The last time I had such an intense sense about markets was 1987 and I put on an options trade the week before the mini-crash then (UAL puts, as I recall) and did just fine.  I am so moved again.

Crazy, Bumping Through Change

Although the stock market was looking to bounce up 24-points earlier, I’m skeptical that gains will hold through to the middle of next week.

For one thing, we had that ultra-high profile police chase and killing of the woman in the nation’s capitol Thursday.  An unarmed woman at that.  Any chance of a police state over-reaction here?  You might ask Alex Jones of Infowars about that.  It’s taken a while, but with the CBS DC bureau now headlining “Why did Capitol Hill Police Open Fire“?” the story may cross the great divide between new and old media.

Oh, and conspiracy theorists will find the killing all too convenient since the woman involved seemed to believe she was being stalked by president Obama…  There went a line of inquiry, will come the conspiracists rap, sure as the sun coming up.

But that doesn’t quite qualify for a fulfillment on the mass murder cycle of 148-days (+/- 2) that we’ve been tracking.  The center of that probability band comes along Monday. 

Not to be a nutter, but this has been a fairly repeatable cycle and one that definitely has my attention.

One thought on the Thursday chase is that it is a signal or kindling event, with more to follow by late this weekend.

Oh-Oh ‘Bamacare

Then there’s ongoing trouble signing up for Obamacare by calling in to their phone number 1-800-318-2596 which works out to 1-800 F(1)UCKYOU.  thanks to the flood of readers who send me the number and yes, it does remind us of the old saying about how “the movie is the message” or, in this case, perhaps the phone number.

But Beyond These Items…

We have and increasing level of polarization developing around the budget impasse and government shutdown, which will really begin to bite into the ‘Merican employment picture next week as government contractors begin to furlough hundreds of thousands of people because “ain’t no dough…

As evidence of the intransigence, we can see headlines on the right like “The Tea Party Patriots blew away expectations at last night’s tele-townhall on the Continuing Resolution with 104,000 participants for Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-OK).”

On the other side of the aisle, the lingo was just as passionate and emo-laden with Harry Reid saying “…Boehner’s job is not as important as our country…” and the White House defending use of the “gun to the head” emo-lingo to whip up folks.

Despite the hype (both side of the aisle) the basic functions of government continue:  Customs, FAA (including air traffic control) and TSA is still inspecting and the FBI is still chasing federal criminals and such.

Taken as a whole, these data points give us an outline of a country which is in an extremely vulnerable economic position.  And that’s what’s covered in this morning’s special (one day earlier than normal) Peoplenomics post.

A simple reduction of the headlines to practicum (hands on, what to do) offers than now may not yet be the time to be moving out of bonds into higher yield investment opportunities and that the nation may have another round of serious downside to go, and indeed it could be even worse than the housing bubble collapse of 2007- 2009.

This would be consistent with long wave economics, which posits that the 1961-62 period was the modern echo of the Great Depression, which really began with a series of four panics prior to 1929, as we recently discussed with subscribers.

As anyone can see, the midpoint of these would be 1911.25 (the beginning of Q2 1911) and when we add 50.8 years to that, we come to 1962.

Toss in another 50.8 years and we come to Q4 of 2012 which is when the crap should all have started hitting the fan.

However, it is here, as we all know, that the Federal Reserve began history’s biggest-ever print-through effort through quantitative easings, because I’m certain in the back rooms of the Fed, they can read the data even better than Ure’s truly.

Students of history will remember that in 1917 (in the 1900’s panic series) we experienced the Russian Revolution.  One is struck by the possibility – when reviewing the data – that revolutions tend to occur just after the midpoint of a Kondratiev Wave series of market breaks.

Thus, we would count the Russian Revolution of 1917, the Chinese (Cultural Revolution), and the currently evolving Muslim Revolution [labeled Arab Spring, but likely to evolve a new strong personality figure to lead a transnational move] as highly probable any time now, but before five years have passed].

We know who Lenin was, and the same for Chairman Mao.  The open question is who will the Muslim analog be, and what relationships will the West attempt this time around to co-opt, or to invest in future relations?  We can’t see it all yet, but it should be coming into focus in future headlines.

But for now, from a pragmatic standpoint, as the Peoplenomics special report this morning notes – capital preservation is critical.

Why Gold Dropped

A good analysis of the latest $40 nosebleed and instant recovery can be found over at Blanchard Online if you’re still wondering how/why that happened.

Madison Ave. Mike points out the King World News report that China’s going to pile up another 5,000 tons of the yellow dog, which may put something of a floor under prices.  Either that (or my bet here) the Chinese know deflation is really digging in and they plan to buy at the bottom, bad news for short term gold bugs but long term it should work out.

More after this…

BLS: Missing Data

What will be interesting to watch this morning is how the market deals with the lack of data from BLS this morning with the scheduled release of the monthly employment situation report buggered up by shutdown (politics).

Holding data hostage is poor form on the administration’s part, if you ask me. 

We’re left to ponder Time Magazine’s “Forget Unemployment, time to worry about mal-employment” report.

I’ve said for years that if a student goes to school and majors in something based on government job projections that if the jobs aren’t there when the student graduates, government ought to eat the failed student loan payments, but no one seems to follow this simple logic to it’s logical conclusion: class action in court.

Weekly Worry Wart Watch

Oh, where to begin?  How about with the report that Bank CEO’s warn of serious risks if the U.S.

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