Drop by around 8:15 AM Central for the Case-Shiller Housing report update.
The balance of this week is full of “surprise risk” for markets. Housing today, a Fed rate hike tomorrow afternoon, and a GDP report for Q2 Thursday that could indicate the nation is already in Recession.
The Calendar Matters
The one data point most people (including a lot of market players) will underweight in their research is the Fed’s H.6 Money Stocks measure. Because when a countries National Debt to the Penny is up running in the area of $30,529,873,257,653.04, something is bound to break, sooner or later.
The Fed meeting – gaveling in today – will be looking at a lot of data. Some of it is real while some is delusional.
On the Real side:
- The Cost of Living continues to soar as Around half of older Americans can’t afford essential expenses: report.
- Not only that, but when you don’t have enough money, guess what happens? Difficulty Paying Bills Tops Pandemic High in US Census Survey..
- The coping tool is changing of habits – and this is set to go pin-balling through the economy like a steamroller. (Huh?) More Signs Emerge That Inflation Is Altering Shopping Habits.
This was fairly predictable – as the Fed faced a terrible choice: Do they unload the balance sheet (between financial storms) realizing they might cause the next one in the process? Indeed, if they had not raised and trimmed the balance sheet, the Fed could go bust, in a sense, if they were already carrying too much paper.
This sets up the first part of the vicious cycle. Seasoned economists are not surprised in the least. Like we’ve been telling you for more than six months, plan on a minimum of a Depression Lite (which Biden could screw up and turn into Depression Hard and Deep) in 2023. Sounds like a precursor to
What few people realize is that we may be in recession right freakin now and we could go over the edge this fall.
Cause and Effect Economics
When the bio war broke out in 2020, the Fed was handed a gift – a scapegoat. Part of the economy could be burned out (old assets destroyed creating fertile ground for redevelopment and growth) when Covid lockdowns came along.
Of course, no one could admit that, so instead we suffered through pointless deaths due to the government practicing medicine. Eventually, the disease weapon worked its way through the population and people began to unmask and rethink.
About here, it became important for the Fed to allow prices to go up. See, in long wave economics, when prices are falling, people hold their cash and stop spending. Reason is there is an expectation that lower prices will be along soon, and they can get more value.
The problem is that because of the initial drop in spending, successive waves of price collapse cycle through the eco9nmy and things just keep getting worse, prices fall, rinse and repeat. Meet the Vicious Cycle.
Inflation – like what we’re going through right now – is all part of the bankster class plan. Look what inflation has forced you into:
- You can’t save as much (if anything) because food and rent are through the roof.
- Housing – which had been the dream investment the past couple of years – has been cooling off. Remember my consigliere’s edict on this stuff. “Class C and Class B properties always fail first. The Class A office space is the last to bite the dust.”
- We are just cycling into the Class A collapse part ahead of Depression Lite (or Worse) when you read stories like Mark Zuckerberg sells San Francisco home for record $31M.
- This sets up the “normalcy bias.” Which happens because on the one hand housing sales (number of sold homes) has been dropping, but the prices keep going into overshoot territory. Wall Street Journal summed it up last week in U.S. Home Prices Hit Record of $416,000 in June as Sales Continued to Slide.
What many people fail to wrap around is that the U.S. Economy peaked in late summer of 2019. Since then, we have been in a decline if we count the absolute (ABS) number of people actually working.
Inflation perpetrates a fraud on people that few can comprehend. Best example is maybe sitting in the driveway. Your car has probably gone up in price like mad. But proportionately, the fraud is you still own the same percentage of equity. Which – if rolled over into a new hooptie – would cost at least as much – OR MORE.
Your personal balance sheet looks bigger, but your refrigerator looks more barren.
Stocks are in Long-Term Decline
Our “truth detecting” Aggregate Index hints the all-time highs may have been notched on November 8, 2021.
As may be seen, things are conflicted for now and the count can be argued a couple of different ways. Which is a Peoplenomics topic tomorrow.
For now, just realize that when the stock market is down in Bear country6, real estate has peaked (on a unit volume basis) and while prices are holding in class A properties, the bottom is already falling out down under.
Just a matter of time before things to get worse. Which will likely dispel the useless democrat control of Washington before (properly named this year?) Thanksgiving Day!
Things to Notice
This is a great time to chase the bag (of money) and stay your personal course undeterred by media bullshit stories that sound urgent and yet they are not actionable. Some notes on what’s crap and what’s keepers:
Keeper: Got your mega ticket? Mega Millions odds: With jackpot at $810 million, is it worth shelling out $2 for a ticket?
Robots are out to get us, dept. Chess-playing robot breaks 7-year-old boy’s finger during match in Russia.
Crap: How long have we told you social media is a marketing con game designed to piss away your life into a screen? A few are waking up: Customer Satisfaction With Social Media Platforms Is Slumping | PCMag
Keeper: Questions are being raised about whether beta-amyloid plaques really cause Alzheimer’s: his work shows Alz to be a kind of “type three” diabetes which can be largely treated by diet.We continue to recommend doctor Dale Bredesen’s work because
Biden Crap: FBI, DOJ accused of downplaying Hunter Biden dirt. Even more outrageous is US Sold Nearly 6 Million Barrels of Oil Reserves to China, Records Show. Looks to us like the Bidens are in China’s pocket.
More tea and then a housing update.
With an hour to the open stock futures are down 4-10ths of a percent on the S&P.
Write when you get rich,