A Long Wave Look Ahead

by

The long – and larger – cycles in economics is our focus today.  Sure, a few stories off the wires with our (occasionally) acerbic remark.

But with the buzz of the presents wearing off, and perhaps still smarting a bit from our discussion of the economy’s “elevator to nowhere” problem (mythical growth versus inflation adjusted quality of life metrics, this is a good time to pause and reflect on “What next?”

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46 thoughts on “A Long Wave Look Ahead”

  1. “threatening TikTok ban ”

    Recall early this year when .gov and the parrots were singing TikTok/China is stealing our data… espionage using keystroke logging…

    “TikTok is an urgent threat to national security” – Congress

    Now TikTok is OK. People somehow reconcile the flip/flop in their brains like choosing between butter or margarine.

  2. ATL: all is well here, sad to have left, glad to be home (in nearly equal measure). Our 21.25 YO TomCat is pleased to have in/out privileges restored and, when awake, is hanging with Mrs. E (glued to her actually). New old waterfowl flocks include small fast dark hued fellas that sound like an alternator belt ready to blow. That when letting loose for low level murmuration. 50F on 12.28.24. Marvelous!

    Are you ready for some football? Uhm, not really. It’s so nice and quiet here though … I already miss the Little Master. My Grandson was a treat every morning. All the silly sleepies snorked through the best time of the day. Babies are astounding after the overnight rest.

    The first 2-ish hours of our escape drive was in daunting soupy fog. Snowcover melt was feeding an inversion and … nothing like >60mph in a 100-200′ accordion of visibility. To our great surprise, when descending into the Mississippi River Valley the fog snot lifted. I was thrilled. Then round Madison, WI then … the Chicago metro area.

    It _is_ good to be home.
    BR, Egor

    • The stock foglights Ford sticks on the Expedition look like glorified dome lights. They are white (not clear or amber) and they glow instead of shining. To be fair, they probably started out as clear. They are all plastic, with untempered plastic lenses — in short, junk.

      I measured one of the lamps and found a suitable replacement — Hella, Mercedes OEM, with glass lenses and a proper foglight pattern (with a sharp, flat cutoff.) I adjusted the Expi fairings to accept the MB lights and allow access to their adjusters, and used ½” hardware cloth to build stone shields. Finally, I replaced the clear bulbs with H-3 Optilux units.

      A few months later, the lights paid for themselves. I was driving from Traverse City, MI to Goshen, IN in the middle of the night, hit super dense fog outside Cadillac which stayed with me almost to Kalamazoo. Even the semis were driving under 30. Running just parking lights and fogs (technically illegal in many places) I had good vision and was not overdriving my lights at 50.

      The foglight swap is a mod I strongly recommend for anyone who drives the coasts or around the Lakes areas, and has lights made by your vehicle’s manufacturer. There’s a reason the high-end carmakers use Marchal, Cibie, and Hella as jobbers, rather than make their own.

      • I forgot to mention, the Mercedes foglights were nearly 40% cheaper, new, from Amazon, than Ford’s aftermarket clones (and hundreds cheaper than OEM Ford…)

  3. “health drink”

    Here’s a goodie.

    The people over @ loyal think they can make our dogs live longer and by extension us with something coined “LOY-002”. But living longer only ensures dying in the nuclear radiation or being kidnapped and experimented on by space aliens so longevity may not be worth it.

    loyal says:

    “Early next year, Loyal, a US biotech start-up, is confident that it will bring LOY-002, a daily, beef-flavoured pill, to market that could give dogs a minimum of one extra year of healthy life.”

    The story goes one dog year = seven people years.

    From loyal :

    We’re helping dogs like yours live longer and stay healthier as they age.

    Our products focus on preventive care, addressing the underlying causes of a range of age?associated diseases to delay their onset and reduce their impact.

    https://loyal.com/

    Scientists explore longevity drugs for dogs that could also ‘extend human life’

    Researchers say drugs may be able to increase lifespan by extending health and thus shortening the rate of ageing

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2024/dec/26/scientists-explore-longevity-drugs-for-dogs-that-could-also-extend-human-life

  4. (“Change in the Oval will not fix the Housing problem any time soon. Homelessness in the US reaches record high as housing costs bite.”)

    around here the elderly.. a woman sold her home because she couldn’t afford the utilities.. low income renters cannot afford the cost of rent in low income households..
    its the failing of the legislators that don’t live in the real world..

    • “its the failing of the legislators that don’t live in the real world”

      Sure they do, thats why they are cranking up the H1B visa issuance as soon as orange jesus takes ofc.

      New New Delhi will be Ure new name of Ure hometown. Drs Gupta, Gupta and Gupta will be handling all Ure medical needs at VA Hosp..all of em. Never mind that the drugs that they will be prescribing shorten Ure lifespan by years. Ure replacements are ready, willing and able. Best part ? These guys & gals cook some awesome meals..https://youtu.be/3e-T2iA7H-w?si=eLBgzDlHwi5GpUUB

      Crackers – OUT!

      MochaLattes – IN!

      VP fraud musk wouldnt have it any other way.

      • (“Sure they do, thats why they are cranking up the H1B visa issuance as soon as orange jesus takes ofc.”)

        now that there is some funny stuff lol lol lol..no they don’t….. they think they do..
        that’s what made the short lived show 30 days only last 6 episodes ..they took someone out of their comfort zone.. couldn’t use any of their resources.. none of their contacts they had to find a job get a place to live without their contacts or financial resources … only one contestant was able to make it..the rest failed..it lasted 6 shows..
        now I have had my share of traumatic life experiences.. and I don’t have a clue what others That are experiencing are dealing with..last year I gave out t-shirts be kind everyone you meet is experiencing issues that you have no idea what they are dealing with..like the can man.. he lived under bridges and in dumpsters.. the local police would see his walker by the dumpster they would pound on it and yell can man are you in there then take him for a pancake and an egg ..the garbage men collected cans so he could cash them in for food.. the stories he told me were bad enough I doubted I would be able to survive..
        our legislators have people tossing money at them..the daily struggles that the average person deals with is non existing in their world..
        my sister her husband gets military retirement and social security plus another income of my sisters in Seattle washington..their monthly income is over half of our combined yearly income..she has the golden goose healthcare .. their yearly deductible is so low its nothing..she doesn’t have a clue..now I can tell you I don’t have a clue what her husbands been through.. he was ranger for what thirty years been in so many police actions around the world.. he has seen crap I will never understand or have any knowledge of..
        our legislators have people throwing millions at them.. their children won’t be put in the front lines and like the pedo. can do pretty much what he wants and not have any laws that he has to worry about..
        the legislators even went so far as to pass the law saying that they don’t have to be subjected to follow any of the laws they pass..
        They get A $1.2 million to $3.3 million allowance
        Members of the House receive a $900,000 annual allowance for a staff as well as a $250,000 budget for travel and office expenses, paid for entirely by taxpayers. Each senator, on the other hand, gets a budget close to $3.3 million based on figures from the Congressional Research Service. Again, certain companies do offer lavish pay packages and perks to employees so it may be a bit hypocritical to pick on Congress for this one point. However, I’m not aware of any business out there where all employees equally get at least $1.2 million in expenses at their disposal.
        I was shocked when one told me they get a card to use for their expenses..
        the other day someone made the comment that George was only announcing pessimistic news..no he’s reporting the real world..the world that most of us live with on a daily basis..our members of congress have the majority of the year off..they would cry if they had to actually punch A time clock..or if they had to actually vote and finish during the year..eco Rand Paul tried to get Congress to read the thousand page bills and discuss them Just like they teach every kid in school…he was laughed off the floor.. they will give you as many pages of excuses as to why they don’t need to read them as there are pages in the bills..they don’t write them …a team of lawyers writes that crap ..

    • Watched a bit of Clif’s videos posted by Steevo.
      The compulsion to buy paper towels and toilet paper just washed over me. OMG.
      I did a quick check on the prep supply sites looking for signs of panic buying. Nothing. No shipping delays, and lots of sales on.
      I’ll cruise by the grocery store. 5 PM on a Saturday is a good time to scope out runs on inventory.
      Record rising tension, but no one is buying.
      I miss Clif’s PM forecasts.

      • Grocery store traffic was heavy, but not unusual with New Years coming up fast. Grocery carts were heavily loaded. I saw a lot of Hispanic families with $200 – 300 carts.
        Noticed several people wearing masks. One guy wearing cargo shorts and hiking boots had on this velour rainbow flecktarn pattern camo mask. I couldn’t figure out if he was a newbie prepper, or if it was a lifestyle statement.
        The beloved house brand paper towels had taken a hit, but there were still plenty, and TP looked freshly restocked. No evidence of any runs on anything else in particular. This is the same very large grocery store that was completely ransacked on Covid Panic Saturday. No panic in motion at this time.

  6. Hmm… a notice today in the mail.. natural gas rate increase a d a notice for electrical rate increase hmm
    there is a water and sewer increase in January as well..hmm

  7. Oh, yeah… Sorry… another one I forgot:

    6) If ET is so advanced, why does his tek look only a little past ours? It should look more impressive — or more subtle. But, no; it looks like our own Sci-Fi writers dreamed it up. Very derrivative. Why are there no tricorders buried in ten million year old sediments? Are they so good they never lose or misplace anything? I doubt that, since we we seem to know their ships crash fairly often to hear Boppin’ Bob Lazar tell it. So. they ain’t perfect. No evidence, besides the occasional crashed ship? So are they more or less dangerous than Aeroflot or Garuda?

    • Really WRR ?

      They traverse clear across the solar system/galaxy/universe – only to Crash over Earth?????????????????????????

      Think that thru again..

      They dont crash…they are shot down with particle beam weapons/radar weapons at direction of bad guys(et).
      I call em the space nazi’s, and the miserable Mimminu (Grays).

      *See congressional record regards testimony about
      Crash Retrieval Program – using Ure tax receipts to pay for damages/injuries for team members. Think they would get radiation suits..hmmm

      Top o pyramid guys are very well endowed Mentally – their unique Gaze enables the illusions” they put in Human minds; painful,paralyzing, and or designed to trick you into seeing god”..robes, old white guy, silvery hair, talks inside Ure Head.

      Tis why I have been harping on Mental Engagement and Meditation for so long..Teach youse what the Pleiades

      Occupants are turned over to BGet’s, some tech is shared back with us…cheap shit like velcro, transistors..

      • ..and why not? We bought Manhattan Island for $24 in beads and junk jewelry. “A trick or two with lepers, and the whole town’s on its feet!”

    • If they flew across the galaxy to get here they are a tad bit more advanced than we are..
      my guess is planets that can sustain life are a fair distance between each other..
      so..since we have morons in control ..my guess is..would they allow the morons to destroy the planet for a few numbers that they sold their soul for..or do like what has happened in past history..eliminate the threats.. soddom and gomorroh

    • (“If ET is so advanced, why does his tek look only a little past ours? It should look more impressive “)

      probably shocked and flabbergasted at the sheer stupidity of mankind.. what was it Christ said…in the parable of the sheep and goats..
      (“31 “When the Son of Man comes in his glory, and all the angels with him, he will sit on his glorious throne. 32 All the nations will be gathered before him, and he will separate the people one from another as a shepherd separates the sheep from the goats. 33 He will put the sheep on his right and the goats on his left.

      34 “Then the King will say to those on his right, ‘Come, you who are blessed by my Father; take your inheritance, the kingdom prepared for you since the creation of the world. 35 For I was hungry and you gave me something to eat, I was thirsty and you gave me something to drink, I was a stranger and you invited me in, 36 I needed clothes and you clothed me, I was sick and you looked after me, I was in prison and you came to visit me.’

      37 “Then the righteous will answer him, ‘Lord, when did we see you hungry and feed you, or thirsty and give you something to drink? 38 When did we see you a stranger and invite you in, or needing clothes and clothe you? 39 When did we see you sick or in prison and go to visit you?’

      40 “The King will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.’

      41 “Then he will say to those on his left, ‘Depart from me, you who are cursed, into the eternal fire prepared for the devil and his angels. 42 For I was hungry and you gave me nothing to eat, I was thirsty and you gave me nothing to drink, 43 I was a stranger and you did not invite me in, I needed clothes and you did not clothe me, I was sick and in prison and you did not look after me.’

      44 “They also will answer, ‘Lord, when did we see you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or needing clothes or sick or in prison, and did not help you?’

      45 “He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me.’

      46 “Then they will go away to eternal punishment, but the righteous to eternal life.”)

      What’s funny is a few years ago I read that they were getting strange signals from the black night …now were they I also read that it was destroyed..

  8. Good slow waking Saturday Morning George.
    While having my first cup I looked at the Chart Pak and the 4th Chart (was supposed to be the oscillator) is a repeat of the Chart Three.
    I consider the oscillator on of the better indicators, and sure others look for it too.
    Would you consider throwing up a Tuesday style add on, or pulling the report back and putting it in?
    Thanks and have a nice weekend.

    Oh, BTW.
    Elon and Vivek have a pretty hostile twitter war going with members of the MAGA world that think H1B reform should be a part of any immigration reform. Very Vulgar tweets flying. Trump and Vance staying silent for now. But is Elon pulls out of the MAGA alliance that could be the Trigger to knock the US market off the cliff.

    • Try now – not sure why that happened!!! But I revised and uploaded again.
      Would have hgappened sooner but 4 inches 2day of rain and satcoms up and down…

    • I’m not quite sure what’s happening with Elon and Vivek, but I do know that the H1B visas have been a political football for ages. In my consulting days, H1B holders were significant competition due to their much lower rates, but there were jobs that simply required someone with good American English and an ability to relate to the customers and their needs, along with requisite technical skills and abilities. An H1B visa is never supposed to be issued unless the company seeking one can illustrate(in good faith?) after advertising for the position in America, that such skillsets were not readily available from citizens or permanent residents. Obviously, such advertising was done where it was least likely to be seen by anyone interested, and so the visas were issued and cheap labor was imported for a few years. Better deals could be made if the company sponsored the visa holder for a green card. These visas were generally available only in the commercial sector and not usually for those requiring a DOD or DOE clearance. The situation was sufficiently bad(for American engineers) in the early 2000’s that I did other things with my life.

      I do believe that we should obey the letter and spirit of the law and only hire H1B visa candidates when an honest search for qualified Americans has failed to produce useful results.

      • …Problem is, we’ve been teaching stupidity and incompetence in ever-increasing doses, since the 1980s. Our “Liberal Elites” get the finest education, but haven’t the inclination to do anything which resembles work. The rest of us get a garbage education (unless we self-educate) and lose in the “opportunity game” because our piece of paper isn’t from the right school.

        Because of this, employers and industries which actually do stuff may be forced to seek doctors, scientists, and engineers from overseas. Once the domestic market is dry, employers won’t need to abuse the program — the only way to EVER fill them will be through the H1B program.

        Problems go away when you fix the causes. We have a habit of cluttering the discussion and obfuscating the true source of an issue. We do this for two reasons:

        1) It gives the talkers a chance to talk, and talk, and talk, and pretend to do something worthwhile while they further clutter the discussion and confuse the listeners.

        2) It helps the politicians in their quest to manage issues, but never fix anything. If you can’t tell them what to fix, they’ll never have to do more than simply “manage…”

  9. For Details on the ELON anger over the H1B mess go read Sundance on the Conservative Treehouse site.

  11. re: Long Waves
    feat: Ask Siri?

    Folks,
    Leaving yesterday’s Chechen theatre behind, let us take stock of things at the home of the Bolshoi and surrounds. Moscow’s Pererva Street begins at the ring road surrounding the expansive Artom Borovik Park. The park was named after a Russian journalist and author of “Hidden War: a Russian Journalist’s Account of the Soviet War in Afghanistan”, 1992. He and a Chechen oligarch of Chechen and Ukrainian oil industry assets died when the latter’s private jet failed to successfully take off from Moscow’s international airport destined to Kyiv. Subsequently the oligarch’s brother continued the family business and even extended it to include Russian platinum resources along with Ukrainian representation of that digital global colossus which is headquartered at Cupertino, 95014.

    Yesterday Russian social media “Shot” published a report based upon events inside an apartment building on Pererva Street as officers forced suite yuletide season entry bearing heavy arms. Reportedly two of an unstated number of total non-Russian apartment occupants were killed. Subsequently pictures were taken as placement of articles of evidence were adjusted to suit camera viewfinder while clothing and banners bore Arabic script slogans. One beside a handgun said “I have Ahmad” while another said “Messenger of God”. Images of red canisters, gas cylinders along with Russian script-ammonia packages were also shown. The Russian media outlet advised that the apartment occupants were “terrorists” planning an attack on police. They were alleged to belong to “Vilayat Khorasan”.

    Searching “Vilayat Khorasan” (or ISIS-K) perhaps lately of northern Syria can translate to “province where the sun arrives from” according to “Wikipedia”. Apparently they are at odds with the governments in Tehran and Kabul. Khorasan dates to the Empire of the Iranians which peaked between 224 and ad 651. One imagines that their quarrels will require more time to resolve.

    Speaking of time, keep watch for Shop Talk Sunday following when the sun rises?

  12. Huge question George…
    did you once decide to grow mushrooms and how did it go..I love mushrooms in just about every meal..and got thinking..maybe before I go trying this is was it worth it and how did you do it..

  13. “Trump asks Supreme Court to pause law threatening TikTok ban…
    …Still, there’s a serious question about whether government can muzzle free speech and that has the potential to ripple into American social giants like X and Facebook as China would no doubt respond in kind.”

    TikTok isn’t free speech.

    Without researching, I strongly doubt either Farcebook or X are even allowed to exist in any territory which China exerts control.

      • Farcebook and Twit sniffed every post, public or private, grepped the ones from which they could generate income, and 86’d every one that didn’t agree with the political ideology of the assholes in the corner offices.

        TikTok does this, shitcans many fewer posts, but the assholes in THEIR corner offices are ranking officers of the CCP, and along with grepping billions of dollars of content, inject communist Chinese and anti-American propaganda to subliminally program their millions of U.S. users.

        IOW all the antisocial media platforms steal their users stuff and attempt to ideologically-program them. The difference is TikTok does so at the behest, and to the benefit of the CCP.

        I have no more problem with the technical aspects of TikTok than I have with any other antisocial platform. Mr. Trump is being sympathetic toward it because he ran circles around Biden on it, undoubtedly to the benefit of his campaign.

        That said, were I he, I would require that it be sold to an American entity and that its code be made open source, or it would cease to exist. Let a few hundred thousand American (and Swedish, Finnish, Russian, Belarusian, Canadian, and Aussie) LINUX nerds write the code, and keep it away from EVERY government…

        • @George Ure

          “I would concur so long as other existing American (socialist) media were held to the same – open source particularly of their filters.”

          Probably not going to happen…

          So, you’re saying we need to pool our resources and buy MySpace (should cost about $1.73 each) then goad a couple college nerds at Rose-Hulman or RPI (or some other top-shelf tech school nobody’s heard of) into opening it up and dropping the rewrite into Sourceforge? Then make a bazillion dollars, providing an honest social comms platform to the half-billion grandmas who’re currently on Farcebook?

  14. I will do that.. I will take photos of the instruction sheet..it looks real interesting… and email it to you.. I haven’t seen anything like it simple yet very well thought out. I was going to use an ultrasonic humidifier this uses gravity drip feed..

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