A short discourse today on the linkage between a good, hard sweat – while working out at manual tasks that require no higher brain function – and clearing of the mind. Which led me to a “Novel Crackpot Theory of CV19” (NCTCV19).
Part – The First
First, on the sweat-mind link.
I’ve noticed many times, that when I’m doing “mindless work” old (and sometimes buried) anger or thought-stubs about past wrongs (and people who were out to “do me bad”) come to mind. I reflect on them, notice how they are still “hanging onto me,” bless them, and let them go.
A previous “Ure Crackpot Theory” (UCT) suggests a LOT of what we call “aging” is more like “swimming through the goo of life” in a psycho-spiritual sens ). This type of aging is the product of confusing our own drama with the dramas of other people’s lives.
Over time, enough “bad drama” (the “confused” think of it as karma) sticks to you. Slows your “normal progression” and in doing so, leads to?
Aging! (Point #1, set aside on a warm plate).
Point #2 is that IF you can “set aside” everything at this level, you might delay aging plus enjoy a moment – or two – of “enlightenment.”
The “ocean absorbed by a drop water” experience. Is it possible that stress, such as induced by those “clingy” low-level “hassles” that lurk deep in memory can zap! the efficiency of exercise induced chemistry? Like DMT? You know…DMT – the so-called “spiritual molecule,” right?
Which gets us to asking “Are there useful insights that may arise directly from a sweat-lodge type workout (easy in East Texas when the humidity is high!) either during or just after exercise?
Maybe. (Point #2 – set aside on another warm plate.)
Cooking-Up a Crackpot CV-19 Theory
While in “sweat lodge mode” today, two things kept welling-up to consciousness that had no business being there.
The first “ingredient” was CV-19 viewpoint offered early-on in the pandemic by The Major’s Wife. She (if you have a great memory) you’ll recall, is a PhD. in a particularly difficult part of emergency/intensive-care medicine. Top-notch thinker. One of her suspicions has been that CV-19 (like many other viruses) would drop down over the summer as the heat came up. Not so far, though… over 14-million today…
The second “ingredient” was a phenomenon I noticed while director of various private vocational schools from 1986 through 2005, or so. I ran some pretty good-sized “direct-response” media campaigns. The largest of which was about $500,000 a year. Lots of daytime television. “Call now, lines are open…”
I noticed there was a decrease in response rates (i.e. higher cost per response cost seeking potential students) from about mid-April to the end of May. After that, the cost-per inquiry went back down to “normal.” Costs also went up from Labor Day until really cool fall weather arrived. Double dromedary cost curve.
The response rates also varied by climate zone. I consulted a school in Las Vegas. Their “spring and fall holes” were bigger: Earlier in spring, later in fall. Made sense, because only at gunpoint would people go outside very long from May to October except for necessities!
In Seattle and Portland, the “holes” were right to into summer – smaller “holes.”
Of course, no one but a numbers-driven sales and marketing guru would have noticed it, but that was Ure, once-upon-a-time. The difference was statistically striking: 30-40% swings on any P&L-impacting items (marketing costs) get my immediate attention.
Let’s Cook Up Some Theory!
Into a large brain, stir: Bits of (Aging/experiential trust in self) and season with (post-exercise) change in brain chemistry.
Combine with: “Expectation of declining virus spread rate in high heat) mixed with observational data from multiple major market “ad cost per-response” data studies.
Simmer (for one sweat lodge-length workout) and reduce to something acceptable to serve the public:
Ure’s Crackpot CV-19 Theory: Suggests that due to historically high use of air conditioning systems, humans no longer experience large “summer virus burnouts). This theory implies that humans will be more likely to see virus moderation of spread when outdoor activities are engaged in widely. (The “double-dromedary curve” periods, spring and fall…)
Modern Comfort-driven Humans do not DO extreme temps. The theory postulates that there should be a statistical correlation between TSW (time spent watching) as in television and CV-19. When TSW is high, it infers that people are indoors. When TSW is low, the inference is people are outdoors. Exercise, bike riding, taking sun (vitamin D, right?) and more. People seem healthier when both “in motion” and being outside. Instead of indoors in clouds of virus micro-exposures.”
Crackpot theory, right?
Do we have public health statistics or studies linking weather, behaviors, and human health? Yes, some. In fact, a quite-recent article (from PubMed.gov) seems on point. “COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020” informs us that:
“During January 26-February 10, 2020, an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease in an air-conditioned restaurant in Guangzhou, China, involved 3 family clusters. The airflow direction was consistent with droplet transmission. To prevent the spread of the virus in restaurants, we recommend increasing the distance between tables and improving ventilation. “
Ure’s Crackpot Theory? As temperatures go up, virus risk may still go down. But, thanks to “modern progress” the reduced propagation-effect may be masked by nearly universal air conditioning. And that MAY mislead researchers who are having a hard time coping with the apparent (but not real when a/c use is figured) lack of virus seasonality.
Something to think about, since next weekend at this time, the world will have more than 15-million cases. We may passed 14-million this weekend, well-ahead of our forecast.
Part- The Second:
Prepping Weather Forecasts: Background
As we continuously remind readers (nag!), if you’re going to have a useful brain you have to feed it all the time.
Our daily “brain food” (digital composting) is to read a half-hour (or more) daily from books and sources that are well off our beaten path.
When you figure out that PDFDrive.com has a ton of .PDF and .EPUB docs on almost anything imaginable, you can simply load up .PDFs onto your computer and have the computer “Read Aloud.” Right-click on some browsers and off you go, into the new topic while doing some of that mindless work in Life. Sweeping shop, building something, etc…
Warning: DO NOT UPGRADE TO “NEW MICROSOFT EDGE.”
As of today’s column, “the new” MS Edge will not open and read aloud from a “regular .PDF file stored on a local drive. Non-Chromium Edge did that.
Microsoft keeps talking about “it’s coming” but (looking shocked here) it’s late. We learnt long-ago: Don’t trust anyone with software until a) it’s delivered and b) it’s been wrung out.
Life’s too short to beta test without compensation. It’s a techno-ego sucker’s game. *(Care to ask how I know???)
Prepping and Weather
Sunday morning is the most important part of my “weekly planning” because it’s when I look at the weather as a pilot (ASEL, thanks) does. Look 10-days out, look at some different models, and run out which projects in your agenda fit best on which days. Then plan 3-4 days with declining probability of being “right!”
If the project involves physical work and the “feels like temp” will be in the 80’s at 7AM Sunday, versus mid 80s after the column is done Monday, then guess how that plays out, right?
Prepping sites tend to ignore the weather. After all, there’s not an easy way to monetize it. And the half-ass “prepper sites” are all about monetization and few are really written by people who’ve spent a night in the woods.
Besides, Davis Instruments doesn’t make a go-bag weather forecasting kit. We do love their products (and the company_) for that matter, and have since our sailing days.
A Few Weather Basics
First and foremost is Temperature. There are “seasonal averages” and you should have a good idea what these are where you live. Most people, being brainless social media stooges couldn’t give you the Average December high and low for where they life if their very lives depended on it. Seriously!
Then comes Precip. Cold and wet leads to hypothermia. Bad stuff. What kind of clouds bring rain?
Our Favorite Weather Tools?
Are the ones carried between the ears.
The Wind Rules:
The wind rules may be RIGHT-HAND or LEFT-HANDED.
It depends whether you want to face the weather or back to the weather. Northern hemisphere.
If you face the weather it’s the Right Hand Rule. Facing the wind square-on, point straight out from your right side. The dominant low pressure center is likely out there somewhere.
If you like back to the weather (which I always found drier in the rain!) it becomes the Left Hand Rule. Back squarely to the wind, point straight out with your LEFT HAND and the low pressure is likely out there somewhere.
Low pressure centers tend to have counterclockwise rotations. On a boat, a starboard tack (northern hemisphere) should avoid a troubled voyage.
Books On Weather
Preppers, as a rule, are “cash-heavy” and “brain-poor” in a lot of regards. Marketer’s Delight!
A natural byproduct of living in an information (with lots of fiction) world. A nice way of saying people like to believe they can “buy their stairway to heaven.”
T’ain’t necessarily so.
Weather forecasting (like firecraft, practiced in the rain) is something you don’t really master until you’ve done it – consistently – to the point where everything is a natural reaction.
Once you have basics of “which clouds bring rain” – which wind directions bring storms – and some of that, the real learning begins.
Depending on where you live? When I lived in the Pacific Northwest, Walter Rue’s “Weather of the Pacific Coast: Washington, Oregon, British Columbia” was as crucial to safe sailing and boat-handling as was the “Pacific Coast Pilot.”
Surrounded in Texas by a 1,000-mile “warning zone” – the continuous NOAA weather radars and lots of METARS to decode from [wherever] I admit to being complacent. But the book “ Weather in Texas: The Essential Handbook” by George Bomar (see Amazon – $22 bucks for the Kindlized version) has clawed its way up to the top of my reading stack. Weather is savory stuff if you have salt in your veins and dirt in your fingernails.
Read Old Books, Too
One of my spare time [whatever that is] reading projects is a wide and deep read into lost treasures of Texas. I have always been amazed at the ratio of people who will watch a series about some Oak Island Treasure on the one hand, to the number of people who will actually buy a good metal detector. Then use it.
Like a lotto ticket, if you don’t at least try, you’re going to lose for a certainty.
Maybe its OK for you, but I don’t need to go through life celebrating other people’s success because I’ve sat on my own ass, too much. Know what I’m saying?
One of the books currently being “consumed” is “Rainbow in the Morning” a publication [1926] of the Texas Folklore Society. In the chapter “Superstitions of Bexar County [Texas] “ by E.R. Bogusch, I found some of the most useful “observational weather tools” ever for this part of the world. This is “deep in the heart of…” stuff.
- “When wasps fly into the house, rain is coming…”
- “If roosters crow after dark, rain is coming…”
- “If cattle run around with their tails up, a storm is coming…”
- “If a storm passes away quietly, there will be more rain…”
- “If there is heavy thunder in September, there will be a good fruit crop next year…”
- “Seeds planted in the light of the moon will grow well above ground, but will form few roots…”
- “If the moon has a halo, the next day will be foggy or hazy…”
- “If the soot on the bottom of the coffee pot burns, there will be rain…”
- “When the sun sends its rays down through a dark bank of clouds, it’s drawing up water…”
- “When wolves howl, weather will change…”
- “Restlessness of geese indicates a storm…”
- “When the leaves of the peach or mesquite tree become rusty, rain is not far away…”
- “If snails crawl up the side of a house, rain is coming…”
Seems every county in Texas has an assortment of such tails. Here in Anderson County, it’s an established fact that if you see a turtle crossing the road, it will rain within 48-hours.
Crazy as some of these “old sayings” are, I have seen them work out to “be so” often-enough to make me a believer.
And that’s the hell of modern life.
We are very “well-instrumented” in the digital sense, yet the gradient sensitive minds are all calcified and a ton of ancient wisdom about “walking lightly on the Earth is gone.” Virtualized, online.
And we all do know a few things about data quantization losses, do we not?
Some things to think about.
Especially before Tuesday, when rain is due here. Bugs told me so.
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
COVID-19. Looking at the CDC chart in Table 1 over here, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm we can see that the number of deaths is decreasing even as the number of cases are increasing. On 4/18/20 we had a death number of 16,909 and on 7/11/20 we had a 348 number of deaths if my math is correct. This is a decrease of 16,561 in 12 weeks! Why isn’t this being reported? What does it tell us?
The virus, according to some reports I have seen, is mutating (over 200 variants?) which makes a vaccine more improbable.
Is the deadliness of the virus decreasing? We will see.
Increase in COVID is a Hugh rash of false positive tests. One lady after a week not sick a day was told she was positive while sitting in church on a Sunday morning. She told everyone around her, her family and co workers so they could also quarantine. On Monday she demanded a second test, told them they were ruining her life, her job and disrupting the lives of her family. A second test done within minutes showed negative. How many others are going through similar situations.
Yo G –
Report from the road rolls on.. left Colorado monument area and headed on up to Aspen. dem gov of this awesome state re instituted face mask regs. in public places..IMHO this clown of a governor puts the ART in RETARTED and WEAK..typical demoncrat.
Even the Mask manufacturers say they do NOT prevent/stop Virus.
I refuse and only lift a bandana up upon entry to a store/public place – which I avoid mostly – due the “fight right” angry old men – passive aggressive pricks – really just old school marms – so sad to see such Weakness in American Male’s – No U R not Men ..anymore – more like nutless ole school marms.
If U are sooo scared of Virus – get a Draeger ReBreather w/full face mask – better yet just check in to a FEMA camp – WEAK!
In spite of the silly mask none sense,healthy people hiking/jogging/biking with masks on – hilarious.
Maroon Bells at sunrise was spectacular – met my 1st Mule deer & 2 baby deers, photographed a BIG Bear crossing a rock fall area – pretty cool. Aspen is really beautiful, really expensive with eye popping real estate prices – some of the most expensive ski resort real estate ECD has ever seen.. Heading down the the SLV – to do some serious trail riding for a couple daze – gonna get my cowboy on!
G- there are alot of Texans here in Aspen on vacation..a lot. Mostly Coloradians and Texans..
” Well, I woke up this morning and got myself a beer..the futures uncertain and the end is always near..Let it roll baby, roll..” Mr Mojorisen
https://youtu.be/kE32pvvaDT8
” Well, I woke up this morning and got myself a beer..the futures uncertain and the end is always near..Let it roll baby, roll..”
I started my winters supply of elderberry wine.. got all the ingredients.
I’m not to concerned about the end.. I will make the winter elderberry syrup to..one part elderberry juice one part lemon juice and two parts raw honey..
When considering anti-aging techniques, please give Dr. August Dunnings book, The Phoenix Protocol, a read. It’s not expensive at $15 for a paperback. It explains cellular level working and the how and why dry-fasting works. I’ve been reading it, and though some of it is over my head, I can get the gist of it. I’ve been trying to do this for a 5 day length, and it’s hard when you have a family with teens, requiring me in the kitchen cooking. I’ve not been exclusively successful, but for the most part, been doing as the instructions dictate. I’ve lost 10 pounds in a 7-11 day period. Please consider at least reading?
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B085DRTWBW/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o01_s01?ie=UTF8&psc=1
Might want to look at Dr. Mercolas post this morning about wearing masks. Interesting
“old (and sometimes buried) anger or thought-stubs about past wrongs and people who were out to “do me bad” come to mind. ”
I have found that dark thoughts have a tendency to consume ones soul.
The number one rule in this house is never get angry or concerned about an OOPS..they happen drop it fix the oops and move on.
My wife’s rule is to set aside twenty minutes in the morning for the negative.
Leave dead horse issues behind.
Firgive and Avoid those that did us wrong..
“The wind rules may be RIGHT-HAND or LEFT-HANDED.
It depends whether you want to face the weather or back to the weather. ”
OTFLMAO…. not that this is funny…BUT…. I read this report dealing with the theory about how dogs face when they are relieving them selves..the study suggested that they would align themselves with the magnetic poles… lol lol lol … I thought my god.. what idiots.. dogs like most animals align themselves according to what is more comfortable for themselves..our pooch cannot stand to have her face in the wind and if it’s a cold wind she hates to have the wind blowing on sensitive areas of her anatomy either . Lol lol lol .
“Ure’s Crackpot CV-19 Theory: Suggests that due to historically high use of air conditioning systems, humans no longer experience large “summer virus burnouts). ”
I’d have to see virus numbers from primitive regions before I bought into this, but consider me an encouraging skeptic.
Ever hear of Legionnaires’ disease?
It’s actually a bacteria, not a virus, and common, but concentrated in an air conditioning system, became bad news (BTW it is treated with tetracycline and quinolone derivatives.)
“Microsoft keeps talking about “it’s coming” but (looking shocked here) it’s late. We learnt long-ago: Don’t trust anyone with software until a) it’s delivered and b) it’s been wrung out.”
Ahhh, Duke Nukem Forever…
“Crazy as some of these “old sayings” are, I have seen them work out to “be so” often-enough to make me a believer.”
If they work out 65% of the time, that’s a better average than the NWS (y’know, the folks at NOAA who foist climate change as a State religion, and tell you we’re all going to die?)
If you ever saw the episode of “The Beverly Hillbillies” which featured the weathercaster versus Granny (and her cricket), then researched it, you’d have discovered country folk DID tell weather by the crickets, and that that is an unused (except possibly by the folks at OFA), but viable short/medium term forecasting resource. If researched, you’d discover most “folklore” weather forecasting “tools” have a basis in scientific fact, and the phenomena which validates the folklore (as a postulate) yields the same result, every time its specific conditions are met.
With that said, no botanist or geologist has come close to a working theory which encompasses both why and when maple trees invert their leaves…
I always figured it was foreplay…but when you get this old…..
“…but when you get this old…..”
What you use to do all day now takes you all day to do…
No.more jokes about being flash Gordon and you don’t have to give anymore apologies…
“the weathercaster versus Granny (and her cricket), then researched it, you’d have discovered country folk DID tell weather by the crickets, ”
We still do…for myself it’s not just the crickets but the locusts and the ant hill..locusts six weeks till first frost .. theres three trees a crab apple tree and two others ..when they start dropping their leaves tells me ho bad a winter is coming..
If you have 2 hours to spend to watch this video do so, if you don’t ,go ahead and put it in your favorites and watch it when you get time or parts of it this is pretty eye-opening if you want to know about the spirit world, the virus, the viruses to come, the pedos use of swimming pools and tunnels ,the future of coins, cash, credit, and crypto.and most of all who is watching you, https://youtu.be/YuHO4h54pjU
And OL’ REMUS has died, and this is his last report number 631 on June 9th 2020 when he gave his viewers notice that he was taking a two-week vacation.
http://woodpilereport.com/
“If cattle run around with their tails up, a storm is coming…”
No, if they’re running around like that it means the heel flies are after them and they don’t like it. Those things hurt! Time to do a little pour-on.
But, in the rain indicator category, if the cattle are laying down out in the open, all of them, in the middle of the day you can rest assured that some kind of front is coming through that may bring rain with it or a freeze. They can sense the change in the air as can we. We’re just usually more preoccupied with a whole host of other things to notice. Generally, though, if only a few are down while others are grazing the ones that are down are “digesting”.
Regarding you’re Point 1 up there, though, all I’ve got to say is “Yep….”
I have observed that when any of my 120 head herd raises their tail, running or not, it is advisable to not stand to close behind them and when they lay down anywhere it is because they are tired. Unless your Rusty, our oldest Bull. He’s always laying down, usually in the shade down by the pond.
One hot, cloudless August day, out in western Kansas, I was at a friend’s house, when his father announced that it was going to rain that day. He said it was because it “always rains 100 days after a fog”. A couple of hours later some clouds formed and it rained.
After moving further east, I had a job that started at 6 AM, and I got to see fog that later risers never knew about. Whenever that happened, I would count forward 100 days and write “rain” on the calendar. I was ridiculed until it started happening. In fact, it only missed once, when the rain was a day late. Another time, when there was light fog, I wrote “light rain” and that’s what happened.
Some were never convinced, though.
Facts are like that – easily overwhelmed by emotions and preconceptions
Institutionalized narrowmindedness…
Ive experiences cv-19 but that was before the hype. Prior to getting that fancy name and #19 on its jersey, it was reported as an “Influenza Type Illness” that was going around. Nasty respiratory infections with flu symptoms. It’ll darn near kill ya if ya didn’t keep moving. Plug up, otherwise.
WVA and southern Ohio had it at the end of last year, then disappeared for months … until those fancy tests came around.
I’ve worked in healthcare and met my wife back then, she’s an RN of more than 30 years. Knows her stuff and I ain’t stupid, at least she reassures me I’m not.
What we have noticed are discrepancies. Many of them. Testing, medications, recommendations, symptoms, treatments, cases, deaths and cause, PPE … and even a recent warning from the FDA about 59 hand sanitizers with methanol in them that COULD be toxic. (Wife knew, and we made our own hand sanitizer with alcohol and aloe gel. Smells nice too) but I guess the FDA just realized the potential toxicity.
A lot of all this doesn’t jive with what is taught in medical school or in those never ending “in-services” we all had to attend so corporate didn’t get sued over someone doing things wrong … read and sign the paper.
It’s kind of a cluster of crap. Yes, there is a virus but the brains behind it are small. Too many discrepancies.
Just sayin.
The old native american Chief passed away and left his son to manage the tribe. A bit unsure of his weather forecasting skills, and being a ‘modern’ native ‘indian’, he called the weather service for advice on how severe the coming winter would be. With modern advice in-hand, the young chief directed the tribe to gather wood for the winter. A month later, still unsure of his position, the young chief again called the weather service for advice. He was advised it was looking like a colder than normal winter was brewing. So the young chief sent the tribe out to gather even MORE wood for a coming bad winter. Weeks later the chief again checked in with the weather service. The weather service advised that this coming winter would be one of the worst we have ever seen. Curious, the young chief asked the weather forecaster how he knew this. The forecaster replied: “Don’t tell anyone this, but the local indian tribe has had very good forecasting skills in the past, and this year they are gathering wood like we have never seen in the past, so it is sure to be a terrible winter!”
Now before I am accused of being racist, know that I am part Chippewa indian and that this is an ancestral family story we have laughed about for decades.
Say, you don’t make fun of us people who “cut off the top of a blanket and sew it on the bottom” – which is (says rumor) how certain native peoples describe the lunacy sold as Daylight Savings Time, do you?”
I believe that’s exactly what daylight savings time is.. I dont change the clicks anymore I leave it at one time and adjust the appointment schedule
Make fun of you? Naw…. I just moved to Hawaii where we don’t ‘DO’ daylight savings time. Hawaiian Standard Time year ’round. Down here in the tropics we don’t need to ‘save’ our daylight…. we got plenty, thanks!
“Oak Island Treasure on the one hand, to the number of people who will actually buy a good metal detector. Then use it.”
I love the oak island treasure..
What’s funny though is when I was a little boy.. my first real interest in a buried treasure had th o do with an old hermit. He had a shelter at the local state park..the kids and parents would sit and listen to the story. He was a member of the local outpost in our local city. Anyway the story he shared was while he was on duty a report came in about a skirmish with a pay wagon heading to the forts out west. On board was twenty thousand dollars of twenty dollar gold pieces.. the bandits started fighting with them and a rider was sent to get help. They got there and they chased the bandits with the gold all the way to the local state park. After they conquered them and questioned one of the dying bandits.the dying bandit confessed that they had buried it in an old wash.
He spent his whole life searching for it.
Years later my brother in laws sisters husband that had heard of the conflict and chase went out with a metal detector at the lake where the bandits stole the money.. he had found a saber and parts of a rifle that he kept hanging on his wall..
After I got married I got a really nice metal detector and remembering the story the old hermit shared with everyone visiting the park.. would take the kids there to go swimming and i would go hunting.. I obviously never found it.. I did find the quarter I lost as a little boy. And outside apartment buildings was always worth a few bucks in change..old abandoned farms were fun to.. during the last depression farmers buried their wealth in jars in hog lots..
Having a metal detector is fun.. and if you hit the right spot quite lucrative..
Which state park in which state? (We would understand “no answer” lol)
I don’t mind sharing that story the odds are no one will find it.. I think the wash is at the bottom of the lake.. I did some farmwork for an old farmer.. pulling weeds in the beans and castrated bulls. At the end he went to pay me.. he found an old dirty paper bag on the floor of his old car.. he picks it up and tears off a little bit of the bag writes in pencil pay so and so x dollars and signed his name.
I thought oh my god I did all that work for this..asked my dad what I should do. He said we go to the bank..walked in and the head of the bank came out said I wish we could see more of these and had the teller pay me my money..
He supposedly buried cash in jars. After he passed on the new owner got an earth scraper and took layer after layer of the dirt. What he didn’t know is that wasnt his only farm.
Scandinavians use a sauna, native Americans use a sweat lodge. Profuse sweating expels toxins from the body that have no other path to escape, so it is good for you. Stay Hydrated!!
Personally, after my aerobic yard work sweat-out, I get in the shower with the nylon scrubber ‘buff pad’ and exfoliate all the sticky dead skin layer. What didn’t get sweated out got scraped off. It’s amazing when you get out of the shower and find your skin is literally ‘squeaky clean’.
good weather app
http://www.windy.com/
After reading all this I have to ask
Is anyone monitoring the Alaskan HAARP station?
Is it active now?
Would that help suppress COVID 19?
Just thinking
OR would it bump up rates?