Three Times Tuesday may sound like cranky-old-man math. But it’s really a reference to three clock points today that could drive the future. Or at least give the markets an excuse to have another nervous breakdown.
Clock Point One: Oil.
Oil prices are one of those market indicators that can make a perfectly good rally look sick before breakfast. When oil goes up sharply, markets often go down. Especially when the price increase comes courtesy of people shooting at one another.
Earlier, Brent crude was up 17 cents, while West Texas Intermediate was ahead 67 cents. Not exactly the kind of move that should crater markets. Although, given the state of the world, it doesn’t take much to make the trading algorithms reach for their medication.
So we move along.
Clock Point Two: Jobs.
This one’s a little squishier. (Zat a word? It is now.)
The Labor Department’s JOLTS report arrives at 10 AM Eastern. Job Openings and Labor Turnover. A bureaucratic name for finding out whether employers are still hiring people or merely rearranging the survivors.
Are markets doing a sell-the-rumor routine ahead of the numbers?
Meh. Possible. But unless the report delivers a real surprise, I doubt it’ll be the day’s main event.
Which wheels us around to…
Clock Point Three: Elections.
The biggest of the three, and the one most likely to produce several hundred million words of analysis before anyone knows anything useful.
Fortunately, I can lazy-through the whole business by turning the…
News Compressor: ON
Executive assessment: Three developments dominate the international news this morning, plus one domestic circus.
Americans are voting in consequential midterm elections. The United States has struck Iranian targets while peace diplomacy continues. Russia and Ukraine are hammering away at energy infrastructure ahead of another round of negotiations. Meanwhile, global technology shares are discovering that AI investment requires something more substantial than enthusiasm and a PowerPoint presentation.
BlinkLab scan disposition: Sixteen Inside Pages items from a screening pool of 47 distinct story clusters.
Which doesn’t matter nearly as much as it sounds. The point is to get a sufficiently clear picture of planetary crazy to guide coffee consumption, blood pressure, and the occasional investment decision.
AMERICA VOTES — The Third Clock Point
Americans vote today for all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and a collection of governorships. Inflation, the Iran war, immigration, and President Trump’s policies are among the campaign’s main arguments.
More than 57 million Americans have already voted early, according to election trackers. Competitive races from Texas to Alaska could determine control of Congress.
Direction: Entering decision phase.
Which really means we’re entering the billable-hours phase for Constitutional lawyers.
We’ll snooze through the returns tonight. We follow elections the same way we follow professional football: only the final scores count.
And we expect a great deal of psychodrama before the games are in the book.
IRAN — American Strikes Complicate Peace Talks
American forces have struck targets around Iran’s Qeshm Island and the Strait of Hormuz, even as Qatar continues efforts to mediate an end to the fighting.
Brent crude rebounded above $106 after Monday’s sharp selloff, demonstrating once again that the difference between peace optimism and war panic can be measured in dollars per barrel.
Direction: Escalating militarily. Tell me you ain’t surprised.
Set a stopwatch. Watch for retaliation, shipping incidents, additional American operations, and announcements from the Qatari mediators.
All the fun shit.
UKRAINE — More War. Duh.
Russia has reported additional strikes against Ukrainian power infrastructure. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones have reportedly damaged a Russian refinery at Yaroslavl.
All this comes ahead of another round of U.S.-brokered negotiations scheduled for November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi.
Direction: Escalating operationally.
Our suspicion? Neither side wants to arrive at the bargaining table looking weak. Which means the shooting may get worse before the talking gets serious.
The Europeans, meanwhile, have enormous political and economic stakes in the outcome. Whether their leaders are managing those interests wisely is another question entirely.
AI INVESTMENT — Remember When We Said “Not Enough Subscribers”?
Now arriving, kiddies: the bill.
Global technology shares are under pressure as investors reconsider the staggering cost of AI infrastructure, the timing of eventual profits, and the amount of financing required to keep the machinery growing.
Enormous capital commitments are impressive until somebody asks when the revenue will catch up.
Direction: Financial scrutiny intensifying.
Sobriety’s a bitch. Paper sobriety is worse than hooch.
Drilldowns on the Inside
While you’re waiting to be sickened by the election coverage, a few additional items worth a glance.
Alaska Senate dispute. Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan faces Democrat Mary Peltola amid controversy over another candidate sharing Sullivan’s name. Litigation and Alaska’s counting procedures could keep the political websites employed well beyond tonight.
Increasingly contentious. Or perhaps increasingly profitable for political clickbait factories.
California governor’s race. Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton are competing to succeed Gavin Newsom.
Wait. You’re not still reading this pabulum, are you?
Mail-ballot restrictions. Another legal fight over voting procedures has reached the courts, with judges continuing to referee what ought to be a fairly straightforward national exercise.
Still here? OMG.
War and International Security
Black Sea shipping danger. Attacks on commercial vessels have increased, while NATO is reinforcing surveillance around Romania and Bulgaria. Grain and energy transportation remain exposed to the consequences.
No Bayliner club meetups planned that we’ve heard of.
Taiwan reports Chinese maritime harassment. Taipei says Chinese coast guard vessels have challenged shipping and increased activity around the Pratas Islands.
Pressure increasing. With two, you get cruise missiles.
Gaza ceasefire remains fragile. Which is media-speak for saying that a ceasefire and an absence of shooting are not necessarily the same thing.
Worth a Mention
Southwest flooding emergency. Exceptional rainfall has produced flooding across parts of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Nevada, with deaths and significant damage reported.
Here in Texas, the local burn-ban situation has been changing, just in time for another half-inch of rain. Mother Nature apparently subscribes to a different calendar than the rest of us.
Monarch migration tracking. Attention, Jester! Our Winnipeg news-and-kneeler squealer may appreciate this one.
Researchers are using miniature solar-powered radio transmitters to follow monarch butterflies, including their movements through Texas.
Which got us thinking: Could we tag one on Meghan so we wouldn’t have to sneak a sly eye at the tabloids to find out where she’s wandered off to next?
Purely in the interests of science, of course.
Around the Ranch: The Major Arrives
The Major arrived from the Seattle area Monday.
Naturally, the thunderstorms and rain arrived right along with him.
After knowing the man since 1969, I suppose I should have expected that. Some people bring luggage. Others bring a weather system.
I promptly flipped him the HR dope for the Texas Forest Service, just in case they needed assistance with forecasting and rain-dance arrangements.
Tomorrow, actual antenna work begins.
Today will be spent gathering the parts for the antenna rebuilding project, sorting through what we’ve already got, and making sure we’re ready to go when the weather gives us an opening.
The Major and I have been talking about projects like this for more than half a century. There’s something reassuring about finally getting down to the nuts, bolts, wire, and actual work.
For now? More coffee. We have a long day of pulling antenna rebuilding parts together, followed by an evening of watching absolutely anything on television except election returns.
The politicians can count votes. We’ll count antenna parts.
Write when you get rich,
P.S. From the Proofing Monster: The Monster reports that this morning’s column survived inspection with only minor injuries. A few commas were rounded up, several dangling participles were ordered to pull up their pants, and the news was found guilty of impersonating progress.
The Monster also notes that while Washington will spend the evening counting votes, the Major and Ure will be counting antenna parts. One activity may actually produce a working system. The other will produce lawyers’ fees, television ratings, and a national shortage of blood-pressure medication.
Final editorial score: 9.3 out of 10. The missing seven-tenths? Probably hiding in the same coffee can as the antenna connectors. Write when you get rich. — The Proofing Monster
Ure: Do we get bonus points if the antenna tower collapses onto the music studio?
Proofing Monster: Only if the insurance adjuster gives it a standing ovation.
Ure: “Major, hand me the AK. You cut the power…”