Back to the 85 DMA? Housing, Philly Fed, Drought – Why People Die

Welcome to the post-Fed world.

Oddly, tax rates haven’t changed yet, the air breathes about the same, and the usual aches and pains of aging still chased me out of bed. And as if life isn’t gamble enough on its face, how about this?

Bet on the 85 DMA?

First look at early futures, after bleeding off more than 600 points following the Fed, showed a Fibonacci 0.618 bounce was trying to organize. Fine, can’t get worked up about that.

There are four measures that may “put a shoulder to the wheel” as the year unwinds, though.

Let’s start with Housing.  Because in the “all-things-are-linked” world, when the borders were closed, synthetic growth began to waver.  You know about syn-gro, right?  The magic border medicine that kept the EU from falling apart by importing enough migrants to boost demand for everything.  Here’s how closing border flows is working its way through life.

Our second indicator is the Philly Fed report. Let’s see if we can “tease some cheese” out of this data sandwich…ready?

Current Indexes Remain Positive

The diffusion index for current general activity fell from 47.4 in August to 37.8 in September (see Chart 1). Equal shares of the firms (45 percent) reported either increases or no change in current activity, and 8 percent reported decreases. The new orders index edged down 1 point to 29.2 this month. Over 44 percent of the firms reported increases in new orders, 15 percent reported decreases, and 40 percent reported no change. The current shipments index remained unchanged at 27.7.

Unemployment filings are in the “still low” region – we should be able to see the AI nubble burst when these numbers change week-on-week.

Keep an eye on Drought because that turns a recession into a depression.  And you can almost smell the dust bowl of ’27 warming up in the ENSO data.

And about that?

The CPC Official ENSO outlook, which synthesizes multiple models from North
America and abroad, indicates El Niño will continue to strengthen through the end of the year (Figs. 6-8). During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 75% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950 (+2.5?C or more for a 3-month RONI value). With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies).

Southwest Weather: Additional flash-flood warnings, rescues or road closures are plausible across portions of Arizona and New Mexico as the Four Corners moisture episode continues. Odds: 72%. Three people, including a child, died after being swept away by floodwaters near Newcomb on the Navajo Nation in New Mexico.

61 large fires under suppression and more than 8.5 million acres burned year-to-date. And still, no rain in the forecast here in the “dust forest.”

News Compressor: ON

The Fed delivered the surprise (that wasn’t): a 25-basis-point hike to 3.75–4.00 percent, its first increase in more than three years, while signaling another increase remains possible this year.  CME FedWatch tool is showing 53 percent odds of another one higher.

War, Oil and Hormuz: Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz deteriorated sharply. Preliminary tracking counted only three commodity vessels Wednesday, versus 12 Tuesday and a recent average around 17, although vessels operating without AIS make the absolute count uncertain. Take home:  Triple A diesel pegged at $6.3956 versus year-ago $3.7075 levels.

Yeah – I know  72.5 percent inflation.  Make America Pay Again?  Did I get that wrong?

Saudi Arabia is meanwhile offering additional crude through Oman while working to restore its damaged East-West pipeline. Crude prices eased, but the larger energy problem is migrating toward diesel, refined products and LNG.  Care to guess what the next targets will be?

Russia, Ukraine and Sanctions: Russia launched another substantial missile/drone attack across Ukraine, including energy infrastructure, while Ukraine reported another strike against Russian refining capacity. Separately, Congress passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, sending it to President Trump. Its secondary-tariff provisions could reach major Russian-energy customers including India and China; India has already warned of damage to U.S.-India relations.

AI and China: OpenAI announced regular disclosure of serious unexpected or unauthorized model behavior after documenting six incidents. Separately, U.S. and Chinese security specialists proposed nuclear-style safeguards for military AI, including human control over consequential cyber operations and an incident hotline.

Circle Taiwan war odds as in China, Xi Jinping called for a larger advanced-manufacturing sector as the country’s economic emphasis continues shifting away from property and toward industrial production and exports.

Next

Rates: Watch short Treasury yields and the dollar through the next 24–36 hours. Continued strength in both would indicate that the Fed move is becoming a durable repricing rather than yesterday’s shock. Odds: 74%.

Energy: Saudi workarounds may prevent crude from immediately retaking its highs, but diesel, gasoil and LNG remain the more troublesome inflation signals. Odds: 79%.

Russia Sanctions: A presidential signing or concrete timetable for the Russia/Iran sanctions legislation is likely within 72 hours, followed quickly by Indian efforts to obtain exemptions, quotas or implementation relief. Odds: 82%.

Expect an uptick in UFO Hype

A Pentagon legal waiver reported this week permits certain current and former personnel bound by secrecy agreements to disclose UAP-related national-defense information through designated government channels. The development is an official-process story, not evidence establishing extraterrestrial or paranormal origin, and it fell near the edge of our scan tooling, not one specific overnight development.

In the works of Heckle Fish “There’s always a book…”  (Lord Hecklefish Moriarty, to you, human.)

Around the Ranch: Why People Die

Yeah – not a very subtle topic, now, is it? But, as a series of dreams on Sunday and Monday night explained to me, there is a great deal more to be learned about how the Ontology is laid out. And especially when it comes to exchange of information — and the balance within that exchange.

This was all laid out in a 40-some page “mini book” on the Peoplenomics website Wednesday.
But, here’s the gist of the answer to that uncomfortable question.

People simply run out of story.

Yes, simple as that.

Well, except maybe for a few notes on what “story” is and what it means. Fair enough.
My best-ever (through 1973, or so) insight into how to be a really good news reporter, was to embrace the concept of “picture transfers” between humans.

That’s because – somewhere between our ears – is a graphics processor coupled to “text to graphics” coding that turns words we see, or hear, into fragments of pictographs.
Inside our “mind’s eye” is a booth operator who then assembles the pictographs into ideas which are processed – no one is certain how – into meaning. Joseph Campbell was onto a big piece of it (mythology) but quantum physics is staking out turf as well. Set that aside to simmer.

THE common denominator that is quickly materializing for me now, is that people who live longest-and-best, seem to be those who are driven by an internal collection of pictograms that comprises their story.

In the Peoplenomics piece, I explained that “intelligence” is more widely scattered than most people can imagine. And that humans are three-part constructs within the local reality. We’re made up of an animal – which is “taken over” by migrating intelligence somewhere between conception and birth. At which point, the “animal” pops out of the birth canal and Life is game on for that particular human.

Within this framing, by the way, the “animal” has two local sensor networks that orient them. The internal (to the body) network is the CNS – central nervous system – while the external network is the outward facing sensor array featuring eyes, ears, nose, mouth, and pressure-sensors all over the body, but with highest concentrations at fingertips, sex organs, and inside dentition. (Which works for dentists!)

Newly arrived (hence the PN report name “Visitor to Earth”) the freshly-minted human sets about life. Where the combination of locale, family, religion, and education begin conspiring to turn them into a useful local sensor-pack for the Universe to upload to itself (at or shortly after death).
Here in North America, the standard “flash ROM” of family, school, marriage, and so forth, results in everyone running around “with their own story to live.”

And this gets me to a very long point that I was originally going to send to a friend whose wife is taking the “slow exit from life” by way of Alzheimer’s.
Here’s where it gets interesting.

My wife, Elaine, has been slowly losing access to recent “recycles” of her memory (in other words, decline of STM recall), but she’s started to compensate by adding more “story” to her life.
Specifically, I came into the tiki-themed dining room a few days ago and there was a good-sized stuffed bear sitting in my chair looking out the window.

“What’s the bear doing,” I asked.

“Watching the deer,” came the answer. There had been half a dozen does and youngsters on an acorn and clover mission several times a day this week.
Earlier, in the living room, two very large stuffed bears were sitting on the couch. They were positioned so that they seemed to be talking. It’s “cute” but it also told me a great deal about life.
Elaine is “still here” and she is still creating and provisioning story.
And that gets us to three points to wrap up on.

First: I have noticed that when people with any kind of aging “evidence” begin to slide, it is often accompanied by them “going off planet.” I sometimes wonder whether they (seniors looking off into some unseen distance) are going somewhere that is “more interesting” than what is going on in their immediate vicinity. Could this have something to do with why social engagement seems so beneficial for people with cognitive decline? I can’t say, but there may be a story angle to this end of life area.

The second point is that from my initial research, it appears that information-exchange in the ontology is balanced and there’s a symmetry to how a high-information, multi-dimensional model seems to be structured.

Third point: Over the course of (coming up on) 78 years, it has become obvious in retrospect that the more storied people often seem to keep going longest. And that those who are able to maintain enough “agency” to keep writing their own “best life adventure book” seem to be granted an extra amount of time to keep working on their book.

That’s probably because at the [choose one]:

• Life Review Experience (LRE)
• Judgment Day
• Weighing of Souls
• Debriefing

…the balance of information is restored as information returns to Source.

Three More for the Road

1. Be an unlimited adventurer across all times, places, and spaces. Balance your “doergy” with your “thinkergy” and hold on to those lightning rods of unlimited power until your last breath. Because “thinkergy” and “doergy” are your total Energy.

2. Don’t watch too much television.  Because at the far end of life (check-out time) who wants to see how 1.9 million people watched the same episode of (whatever). I figure if there is an information-exchange model of the ontology, points will be knocked off for plagiarism. Hence our “live it yourself” orientation.

We somehow always knew that doing our own sailing, flying, construction, travels would all count for a longer and better Book of Life. 4K travelogues on YouTube are cool – it’s just likely that in “life-scoring” there’s a “points divided by audience” metric to capture dilution effects from indirect experience.  No looky-lou life!

3. And take comfort that in this “We’re all writers who are penning a great adventure” there is a reason sometimes that the “Good die young.”

Among us writers we call that “A Surprise Ending.”

George@ure.net