3 (1) (i) Down? A Useful (Old) Roadmap

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Without trying to sound prophetic, we are expecting the market to put on something of an early rally, since the stock market decline caught a lot of people (but not us) by surprise.

You’ll remember a while back; we offered this potential roadmap of where things might go?

Well, yeah, that’s right.  We explicitly tabled this outlook two and a half weeks ago in UrbanSurvival Inflation’s Still the Problem: Sucker Rallies and Sillyticks.  And here we are on the verge of a decisive breakdown this week.

Before we update the chart (and outlook) a comment on the “gambler’s streak” many people have.

Gambling Addiction

Bitcoin is still in the mid $16-thousands this morning and it’s really about all you need to know about market bubble collapses.  The speed at which they happen gives plenty of time for hype.

As you know, both the Aggregate (stock) Index we keep, and the price of BTC peaked on the same November 8th day in 2021.  The BTC decline from $68,000 levels to present demonstrates the optimism and denial of investors.

In order to “get the life of your dreams” there’s an ugly secret, You need to know with some confidence what will be happening in markets two weeks from now.  If you don’t have a handle on that, you’re better off paying down debt and parking money in an FDIC box until you can learn how to know what’s coming.

One of the biggest investment stories of the day is this one:  Life-Insurance Payouts Hit Record $100 Billion in 2021 – WSJ.  Important why?  Because insurance companies make money via long-term investing.  And when they have to pay off on a lot of insurance, it means they have to sell assets.  Things like stocks.  Now look around you…

Another big dynamic to consider is revealed in Covid deaths skew older, reviving questions about ‘acceptable losses’.  The psychological battlefield is getting crazy – and perhaps deliberately so – because as we set up the story yesterday, the majority of people dying “of Covid” have been vaccinated.

But besides the partisanship angles to this, there’s the ripple into future as dead people won’t be claiming as much Social Security when the fund has to go on self-sustaining mode when the (named by liars) “trust fund” wears out.

These are just a few of the “Big Picture” fundamentals you need to track and understand the gearing for.  We’ll touch a few others (pending rail strike and so forth) in a moment.

Point so far is not (another) Ure happy dance (“told you so!“) but rather to alert you that we will be in position this week (or really good news or bad) to move violently in markets.

Which Gets Back to Point

The early futures today have our Elliott wave view looking like this:

Clearly, the addition of the lower trend channel should give you more hints about what goes on around here:  “Seeing possible market futures” is not a science so much as an artform.  Because it’s a synthetic vision of future based on Elliott wave, trend (regression) channels, and a host of technical indicators including on-balance volume, differential stochastics, and differential parabolic SAR’s and the MACD and… well, you get the idea.

At this level of play, yes, it takes in a huge swath of data, but equally important is how the data is used in context because that matters most.

Put another way, if you believe in anything, your odds of being good at trading become automatically impaired.  Money doesn’t care what people believe.  It just does what it’s doing and a steely-eyed view (like spotting the whole crypto bubble as a manic society-wide Ponzi scheme) is a prerequisite for success.

Even now, however, there is still a bullish case, but it seems likely to fail over the next two weeks.  But we shall see.  Don’t believe anything – just trade the market and that means the tape.  Everything else is irrelevant, though likely more morally defensible.

During his visit, my consigliere and I were talking about “small trader” types, and he has one acquaintance who reliably pulls $750,000 a year out of a smallish (under $30,000) trading account.  His “trick?”  He has built his own set of trading rules and they work.  Really, really well.

Everyone wants a shortcut, though, and that’s why people with no knowledge of Ponzi schemes, programming, or utility values keep jumping right into the Next Big Thing.  Becoming Losers in the process.

Digital Loser Watch

Shocked by this?  U.S. crypto exchange Bitfront shuts down – CGTN

Even more perplexing is how – even now – after losing more than 76 percent from the top last November – the Coinsters and Cryptocons are still singing praises of digital tulips.

Astounding.  All we can do is point out the facts at the roadside:  The New York Times Is in the Tank for Crypto – The American Prospect.  Oh, and what’s this? BlockFi, 8 Affiliates File For Bankruptcy; Point Out FTX Exposure As Reason Behind Collapse (ibtimes.com).

Singing the high praise of digital collapse is as good an indicator of stupidity as putting a Biden 2024 sign in your front yard.

And we continue asking “How will crypto clear when miners go offline?” Bitcoin Miner Aggressive Selling Continues This November (coingape.com)

Composted News

When you’ve covered news long enough, you’ll come to appreciate the really novel stories.  Like when I was covering the D.B. Cooper case in 1971, it was refreshing.  Because it was novelty.  Going through the headlines today?  Not so novel.  Fine detail-level changes, but the News Wheel keeps on spinning out the same old shit, mainly.  We here give it a spin and you’ll see what I mean.

Volcanos have been blowing up virtually forever.  So not much novel to Mauna Loa eruption: 10 pictures as world’s largest active volcano erupts in Hawaii except how close to people’s homes the lava will flow.

Presidential overreach has been a Founding issue and – looking surprised yet? – still is:  U.S. Supreme Court to hear fight over Biden immigration enforcement policy.

Voter fraud is another one of those perpetual stories, too: Allied stories like Arizona Secretary of State’s Office files lawsuit against Cochise County (ktar.com.

“Duck and Cover” age readers will find little new in present day wars and dueling propaganda machines:  Nato will not ‘back down’ in supporting Ukraine against Russia.  In the end, wars have evolved from killing people to building economies.  Progress? Is that what you call it?

Wait for Iran to flash, this is a useful historical context: Today marks the 75th anniversary of the Partition of Palestine, turned in 1977 into a day of solidarity with Palestine (wafa.ps)

And the Climate Clown Posse is on the march in (brain damaged) Europe:  Dutch Government To Seize And Close 3,000 Farms To Comply With EU Environmental Rules. If you don’t have gardening skills, you may not have a future.

Steee-RIKE!  Biden calls on Congress to head off potential rail strike | AP News.

OK, off to wait for the Housing numbers – we’ll update that about 8:15 AM Central.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

14 thoughts on “3 (1) (i) Down? A Useful (Old) Roadmap”

  1. “ The psychological battlefield is getting crazy – and perhaps deliberately so – because as we set up the story yesterday, the majority of people dying “of Covid” have been vaccinated.”

    You also have to take into consideration that a lot of doctors STILL “follow the fucking guidelines” (as Governor Jim Justice once said.) which, if you do the research, never seemed to be too bright.

    Which is why, (as of March)

    https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/pharmacy/28-states-have-legislation-to-promote-ivermectin-access.html

    And I have to say, I’ve never heard of an actual “Law” against using Ivermectin but rather, only an FDA Warning.

    Wonder how hydroxychloroquine is doing out there. Hmm?

    • “The human race, who’s genetic material the blues had been relying on to build themselves a more robust body frame, is hardly human anymore, thanks to the covid vaccines. Now I totally understand their haste and anguish” from I Anu

      https://youtu.be/68ugkg9RePc

      “Whats so funny about Peace, Love and Understanding?” -E.Costello

  2. Re: Composted News

    Folks,

    Debris all cleared in the streets of EU hq? Such dreadful riots in the heart of Brussels and violent outbreaks as well in Antwerp and Rotterdam following Morocco’s upset win over Belgium the other day at the World Cup. The European msm covered it in their pages, but as far as I can make out, only the Voice of America made mention (once) that the rioting hooligans were Moroccan.

    Speaking of heathen, the history books tell us that in 597 Pope Gregory sent Augustine to spread Christianity in Canterbury and rid the Angles of their Roman pagan gods. Today the BBC has published excerpts from the 2021 UK census. People identifying as Christian in England and Wales have dropped below the 50th percentile for the first time ever. Since the 2011 census, Christian counts are down 12%, no religion is up 13%, and Muslim believers are up 1.6%.

    Alright, back to the World Cup – England vs Wales on deck. Riot police at the ready?

    By the way, World Cup 2026 will be in the America’s…

    Inshallah.

    • Folks,

      With a nod to things heating up at the recent COP27 in Egypt, plans apparently are coming together for the WH State Dinner this Thursday. It will be held on the South Lawn according to publicized reports. Forecast calls for rain to have ended with Imperial temperatures ranging between 25 and 46 degrees F.

      Those receiving an invitation from the President and Dr. Biden to that or other parties of the Christmas season apparently have covid19 screening regulations to consider. A negative covid19 test is required on the day of the event. Those not vaccinated must wear a mask says the “Daily Mail”. Belated shout out to Guy Fawkes Day fans.

      Let us return to matters of imperial measure. While Mr. Biden is scheduled for a Georgia Senator race fundraiser on Friday in Boston, (Is Boston in Georgia?) the WH Press Secretary won’t say if he will meet the Prince & Princess of Wales who will also be in Boston. Wouldn’t that be a lovely tea party to be invited to?

      • so what is the cost difference between the tomatoes? all you are focused on is the water used, a very narrow view point as if looking through an aperture.
        c-person why did you defect from the article and change the topic from the fucking Dutch government stealing the farms via very Questionable regulations imposed by said government.
        The new “green ” regulations are a tax upon the poor while those who write, push and enforce this bull cheese fly in their jets and sail the world in their luxury yachts, yet you eat the bait they throw you, WHY? please explain, in your words and not just another link from the deceivers.

  3. Did everyone fill their coat pockets with BF/CM deals?

    I bought some gold so expect a correction over there. I didn’t go all in so don’t expect a crash, just a 20 to 30% correction. LOL

    “until you can learn how to know what’s coming.”

    Yes, hit us with a book title so we can figure that out.

    COVID, still? How many years now??? You’ll chase your tail until the last day. Trump is still using the “investigating Saudi’s for 911” shtick 20 years later. 20 years is a long time, but goes in a flash.

    I posted the pic of the girl. The Trump’s testified to the Vaxx. Unless they lied. Maybe a needle didn’t go into the women. Perhaps she only sat still behind a partition for a few moments. Nobody will ever know.

  4. Nice assortment of Volcano pix from the Scotsman. I credit Ure nose Knows news! For some perspective on the geology of Mauna Loa (now Mauna [F]loa) you can see the shape of the mountain and historic lava flows of the last 200 years. Present flow is approximately where the old blue flow of 1843 is located.
    https://www.usgs.gov/node/278878
    Present concern is that the flow could cut ‘Saddle Road’… the major E-W highway linking Hilo side to the Kona side of the island. Detours around the coastal highways are longer.

    I’m located in the grey zone way out on the eastern tip of the island. The grey zone is the domain of Kilauea volcano, so the Mauna Loa flows will not reach me here. BTW- Kilauea summit caldera is presently active with lava lakes also, so we have two simultaneous eruptions happening now. And no, they do not interact. Truly separate volcano vents from deep down.

    • the boss and I seen some videos of that on tv last night.. they cut into her favorite show with a blurp on it.. WOW.. it looks pretty dramatic from the videos….

      • Cue Jimmy Buffet: “I don’t know where I’m a-gonna go, when the volcano blows”.
        Yeah, red hot lava flowing out of a mountain top always looks dramatic. But it is miles and miles away from doing any damage. Just making the most massive mountain on the planet a little bit bigger. How often do you get to see geology ‘in-action’?

  5. Boom, Boom ,Boom!

    and no I aint talikng about Fidelity Investments opening retail BITCOIN trading account this week..bbbbBBBOOYAH slavery loving “bitches”.

    No my fine feathered friends – talking dirty as it gets…Nuclear Detonations !

    http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ – created by Alex Wallerstien
    it allows display of casualties and fallout information and accounts for arbitrary hieght detonations. Just plug in the data and locations and GO.

    Been dropping nukes all over ME and kraine – “and another one gone, and another one gone, another one bites the dust..https://youtu.be/NVIbCvfkO3E

    For all U would be megalomaniacs – this is some serious fun.

    BOOM!

  6. obd,
    the Dutch govt is offering the farmers a deal that is way over the value of their farm, the farms aren’t being stolen, but continue your ‘victimization by govt’ narrative, it means you are too lazy to read the entire article, and insist that big bad boogeyman govt is out to get you!! The new green regulations are not a tax on the poor, but they may save a poor and a rich man from future starvation. Guess any kind of innovation and change is scary for those stuck in climate change denial.

    Reduced carbon emissions has enabled the Netherlands to become one of the world’s major ag exporters!

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