Our future is Fertilizer. Which takes a bit of explaining.
When I said, a week or so back, that the market was rotating into position where a “make or break” was due – and a visit to the bottom of an obvious trend channel becomes likely.
Today – and maybe carrying into tomorrow – we should find out. The market might be setting us up for a major ramp of food prices. The kind that cause rationing, and (God help us) government interference in more aspects of Life.
We can begin assessing future by inspecting commodity prices. Our kind of fundamentalism.
Factors that are driving this market down include?
- War in Ukraine could last years at the present run-rate. Imagine lucky Russia – a crossover between the US-Mexico border debacle with a side order of civil war. Schmeer of shortage and famine sauce, too.
- Commodities see inflation coming: Just this morning the price of gold (chart at bottom of page) kissed the $2,000 level. Silver’s over $26, as well.
- Two other commodity groups have us worried: Energy is going atmospheric with Oil being a major problem: West Texas skinned $130 a barrel but in Europe, a barrel of Brent was just a buck less than $140.
- Last, though not least, we see Copper – the “war commodity” (because you make shell casings out of brass, right? Well, except for the steel-jacketed 7.62 rounds made for the AK… On our backyard range here, we’ve yet to see the much ballyhooed “corrosive powder” blamed on such rounds. Could it be an early anti-Russian arms whisper campaign? We may never know. We just run a magnet through the brass bucket now and then to keep things sorted.
- Oh yeah: BTC was hovering around $38,520 earlier. Hard wallet hype aside, other people may be seeing government begin moving to wipe out free crypto competition. If that doesn’t work, war involving the Internet will almost surely kill the digital tulips off. Hard wallet hype – in a post-apocalytic setting like The Postman – ignores the lack of power. And that those of us with panels have built extreme security into their protection. But another topic for another morning.
Natural Gas IS Fertilizer
Take a lo9k at the chart for Natural Gas over on FinViz. Could be seen as a wave 1 up last fall. A bottom in early January, and is it possible there could be a large Wave 3 up to record highs ahead?
With Russia diddling with energy, there’s the matter of fertilizer for Europe.
While natgas in Europe could drive food “Muskward” we’re also picking up a lot of chatter in America’s mid-section. In stories like Indiana farmers see market volatility ahead during Russian invasion (indystar.com).
As slow and dimwitted as the Biden administration is, they may be dusting off the knee pads for Joe to go oil begging:,
As usual, stories coming on this topic will generally cheer on Brandon without mention that the OBiden administration’s inhouse Jihad against coal continues to be the reason America is no longer energy independent. Worse, their payback to major donors (hearing me?) by killing pipelines and dragging out any energy-related decisions, is a national disgrace.
Looks like this 2-hours before the open:
We might drop to the recent lows, but a bit of support (and maybe bounce) there seems a reasonable expectation. We’ll watch (from the sidelines) to see what the clown posse can pull out.
Thank Tech – and Blame It
Although we love our microwave, home recording studio, surveillance cams and drones and even speed controllers in our power tools, there really is a dark side to technology. Besides exporting jobs to China. Besides Clinton selling them supercomputers.
When a new technology comes along, it’s often because of war. The Gatling Gun was invented thanks to the American Civil (but not so much) War. Another example – a bit looser – is the Vickers Machine Gun. First of the belt-driven, it showed up in 1912 just in time for the First World War. The Maxim machine gun was the logical stepping stone from Gatling when first fired in 1884.
Sir Hiram Maxim’s machine gun fortune helped his some (Hiram Percy) set up the American Radio Relay League and the story of Hirma Percy Maxim makes a dandy read. Especially if you’re a ham radio op like AC7X and his son KF7OCD. Besides the ARRL, we also seem to remember that Hiram Percy Maxim was also the inventor of the modern silencer.
Few people are aware that “From 1902 through 1909, Maxim was largely focused on inventing, building, marketing, and selling firearm silencers. He also developed mufflers for internal combustion engines using much the same technology.”
Drones are the New Air Power
We’ve said how many times? “Leaders fight the last war, not the present one.”
It’s looking more and more like the Ukraine conflict is offering an in-Ure-face tech lesson as military affairs contributor warhammer notes:
“Just me, but… UAV tech is available open source. Strapping plastic explosives onto a remote controlled UAV with detonator inserted is not rocket science. Steering one into a tank or troop transport, particularly at night when visual detection is more problematic, is child’s play.
Ukrainians could deploy an unending, commercially procured UAV force, not just for attack, but for intel. As telecom towers are destroyed by Russian forces, UAVs could relay critical comms to friendly forces over secure channels.
UAV ‘swarm’ formation flying is a reality. Ukrainians could implement this tactic to confuse Russian invaders, distracting and intimidating them with various capabilities and displays. “
Forbes article last week is like drones 101: What Are Drone Swarms And Why Does Every Military Suddenly Want One? (forbes.com).
Prepping for Unclear Future?
Me? My B’s & C’s to talk about how people ignore the shit out of the OBVIOUS future? I still can’t figure in a terrorism and fake ID world why the FAA hasn’t required photos on either my pilot or drone licenses. I mean, gotta have a photo to drive or travel overseas – so why not for aircraft? (WTF? Been stumped on this one since 9/11 because it belies a desire to…what?)
When you see the future ahead, there are always aTON of things you can do to prep for it. Besides duck and cover.
Famine coming? Become an expert food producer, even if it’s in-city container gardening. Or, when the next “New Tech of War” is drones, get a commercial drone ticket. Internet collapse? Ham radio license, HF equipment and a digital interface. Seeing how this works?
Either you become a continuously improving, broad spectrum, highly adaptable human being, or you sit on the couch and wait to die.
There’s no damn point worrying on the couch about the future no matter how ugly it could get. Like Yoda said “Do or do not. There is no try.”
Yes, nuclear war is ugly, but it IS survivable if you are sufficiently away from ground zero. Read a good book on the reality of the unthinkable like Kearny’s best-of-class read here.
Skilling up is something to dedicate an hour a day to. Anything from watching YT vids to reading a book. Yada, yada…old man grousing at the kids of the world. Lazy phone freaks.
Short Takes and Flakes
Minor Covid Trucker’s rally: Convoy protesting Covid mandates does D.C. circuit.
Flakes ( but keeping it in the family): Prince Charles to help pay Andrew’s multi-million dollar sex suit settlement (nypost.com). The “crown dic ks” perhaps?
Flakes? Try a 50-car pile-up in Denver: At least 50 vehicles involved in six pileups on Interstate 25, temporarily closing northbound lanes in Denver – Greeley Tribune
Wildfires this time of year? 1,100 homes evacuated as firefighters battle Florida fires (clickorlando.com).
On that, off to fine tune the garden and deal with a passing cold snap here at Uretopia. 81 Saturday, 79 Sunday, and today the high will be 52. Almost Denver-like weather variability.
Friday or Saturday night coming we’ll likely see our last freeze of the year. Putting in the outdoor seeds seems like a project for the coming weekend.
Write when you get rich,