Before we get into the jobs report (just out) and the latest madness that seems to travel the G20 circuit, a word – or three – about personal trading.
Although we don’t offer financial advice, either here or on the premium content Peoplenomics.com site, we have evolved a fairly interesting view of the markets.
The main feature of it is that many “investment professionals” would hold that you’re either in, or out. Thus framing investing as a binary (two-state) choice.
However, it is not. There are actually three states possible: Long, Short, and Cash. This matters at times like this because the charts have not yet painted (for us, anyway) a sufficiently clear channel to get us to our projected highs in August (21-24).
(Continues below)
That said, we think a short-term bottom is close, yet when the market popped +200 on the Dow for a short time Monday, we took the profits (the doorman got his $10-bucks out – e.g. the online trading firm) and went to cash.
Given how the market performed Thursday, that was a near genius-level move.
That said, our “thinking bias” is still to the upside for late August, but we still have plenty of time to continue the current pullback for another week, or longer, and the overall health of this pig is not particularly inspiring.
The bothersome part (which weighed on my sleep last night) was the ADP Job (creation) report that showed there was zero, zip, nada, nicht goods creation employment increase last month. It was all in Services.
Let me offer you some cheap education.
Go read “Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper No. 158. “A Shopkeeper Economy” by Daniel P. Murphy Darden School of Business, University of Virginia (2013).
“This paper investigates the properties of an economy populated by shopkeepers who monopolistically provide differentiated services at zero marginal cost but positive fixed costs. In this setting, equilibrium output and wealth depend on consumer demand rather than available supply. The “shopkeeper economy” is compared to a standard production-based economy in which wealth is a function only of labor supply and technology. I demonstrate that the existence of producers who face only fixed costs provides a counterexample to the notion that “supply creates its own demand.”
That may seem a little high-falutin for a summer Friday with only how many hours till “Miller Time” but rest assured, in the longer term of events, such balances truly matter.
Now with the foreplay out of the way, off to this morning’s job data from the Feds and we will specifically inspect the (estimated into existence jobs) data to get a sense of how much is substance (goods) and how much is hype (services)…
Job: Still Good – But Really?
Remember to think QOJ – quality of jobs as we read the hot-sheet from the Labor Department:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 222,000 in June, and the unemployment
rate was little changed at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
today. Employment increased in health care, social assistance, financial activities,
and mining.
Household Survey Data
In June, the unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, and the number of unemployed persons,
at 7.0 million, were little changed. Since January, the unemployment rate and the
number of unemployed are down by 0.4 percentage point and 658,000, respectively. (See
table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.0 percent),
adult women (4.0 percent), teenagers (13.3 percent), Whites (3.8 percent), Blacks
(7.1 percent), Asians (3.6 percent), and Hispanics (4.8 percent) showed little or
no change in June.”
Now on to the Labor Participation Rate: 62.8% up from 62.7% previous month – generally considered bad/wrong direction.
The
U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force was up to 8.6% from last month’s 8.4%
And those “estimated” jobs in the CES Birth/Death Model: 102,000 jobs were “estimated into existence” with the biggest bumps coming in leisure and hospitality (+82K) and Construction (+23K). Yeah, adds up to more than 102K, but some sectors (like education and health services) dropped. The details here if you need something to drill this morning.
All in all, the most meaningful view may be derived from trying to understand the new H.6 Money Stocks report because from that we can at least delude ourselves into pretending to make “judgments” about how much paper is chasing how many shares.
G20 Crazies
Like direct action by some anarchists is going to stop the Global Economic summit in Germany?
Whenever I see such demonstrations (or got cause in the mace back during the anti-war demonstrations of the early 1970’s) I’d wander away asking “What did these people EXPECT to happen?”
Seemed to me to be a reasonable question then – and now. During the antiwar years, sure, it put the topic on TV, but the body counts and arriving coffins were doing that, too.
Fast forward to the G20 stupidity and what? Like tossing a few Molotovs is going to deter the rich from their plans of continuance of the paradigm? Pah-shaw…hardly. Might bail out the collapsing news networks for a week, but besides that?
People in mob settings aren’t known for clear-thinking with the best, balanced outcomes in mind. At least mobs in Hamburg, Ferguson, Baltimore, Paris, or any other I’ve seen. Seems all about the fight and the pseudo-leaders who ascend the hill of violence. Isn’t so much about the smart, clever, correct, and beneficial now, is it?
Climate Change is a Hoax, III
As we’ve been telling you, here comes a “shock report” that says virtually ALL CLIMATE CHANGE is due to jiggering the data!
“EXCLUSIVE: Study Finds Temperature Adjustments Account For ‘Nearly All Of The Warming’ In Climate Data…”
Gosh, don’t you hate it when we turn out to be right?
One reason? We actually look at the data – like this month’s continuing decline in sunspot numbers reported by the Space Weather Prediction Center’s Solar Cycle Progression:
How hard is it to look at a damned picture? Maybe if your eyes have been Gored, well then, sure…
Still, if we’re not getting through, this story out of Oz(tralia) might convince you:
“Sun might plunge into ‘deep solar minimum’, which could cause part of Earth’s atmosphere to collapse: SCIENTISTS suspect the sun is on the verge of a “deep solar minimum”. It’s about to shower us with rays so intense that part of our atmosphere will collapse.”
Go read, then send me a thank-you for NOT bullshitting you with some crooked climate ruse to pimp web traffic like the fake news media do…
I’ve been touting Robert Felix’ sites for more than a decade – to the skeptics who just can’t think independently. But check this link from Felix www.iceagenow.info site (bookmark it): Coldest in 110 years in southeast Australia. But hey, don’t look at the facts…
Family axiom for Millennials who may have missed it growing up: “If you’re just honest you’ll usually end up being right. But it may take a while…”
Crowds – addicted to drama and misled for profit – don’t part with delusion easily. Just how our brains are wired (stupidly) we suppose…
California: One Upping Bankruptcy
Pardon their PC wording in this but did you see where “California Closer to Creating Sanctuary State”?
What the media calls “undocumented immigrants” are largely illegal aliens…but worse (and PC disease is bad enough), the law enforcement unions and police chiefs of California think this is a bad idea and the damn legislature is ignoring the people who have to cope with the blowback!
Just between us sheep, may this a stealth economic development plan. Sure…
With record heat in this weekend, no growth in manufacturing jobs in the country to speak of, California needs a new growth industry besides building 50 bathrooms for the unlimited number of genders and hybrids coming down the road.
So maybe the deal is for California to morph into the first Spanish-speaking state (ESL for Everyone!) and that will open up the path to an insanely liberal future federal government in DC to requiring bilingual everything for the whole country.
But, of course, you know what that means?
California seems destined to become America’s remix of Quebec…and Canada made a whole economy out of bilingualism for a pushy minority bent on marketing their viewpoint (and imposing it on everyone) along with their language.
(Mental clarity as a second language, anyone?)
Bend over and kiss your melting pot goodbye. Thanks, California…
Wait!!!! Maybe Puerto Rico and California could merge their balance sheets!!! Have Goldpersons -Sacks bundle and package it. Then sell it to college endowment funds, life insurance outfits, and pension funds.
Hell, what could go wrong?
And so, as the sun comes up over the tall pines in the Texas outback, we have again solved all the world’s problems.
Tequila for breakfast! ¡Arriba, arriba! ¡Ándale, ándale!
You haven’t solved any problems at all George. All you have done is take the name of fake news in vain. Shame on you for shining a light in the darkness … you truth teller you! Wickedness, pure wickedness I say.
Guilty as charged! More tequila, bro!
@ Don_in_Odessa
You can’t change solar cycles.
A few poor people can’t save a crumbling empire.
I can’t stop my hair thinning.
I am really getting tired of trying to NOT see news on a video screen everywhere I go.
I think about the best anyone can do about lots of things is to surf the waves as they roll in. Surfing gives you an exciting ride, you mostly stay above water and you can steer to avoid rocks and piers.
Perhaps even better is after surfing, when you can grab your preferred adult beverage (or other option, because no driving on the beach) and BS about the waves and anything else your mind spills out…
You got any more tequila?
Agreed, except my dear wife of 46 years refuses to allow adult beverages or other similar distractions anywhere near my mouth these days. I suffer the life preserver of the symbolic surf board of the George Ures of my small world as the only imbibement I am allowed in these very sobering times.
George, good call on the tequila. BTW. Was thinking about the environment. Sort of the big picture.
Suppose only 3% of published scientists thought human induced climate change was real, instead of the exact opposite — wouldn’t that call for one to go a bit slower? To be a bit more conservative until way more facts came in?
Now, let’s move the context. Say 3% of all reputable engineers said the town’s dam will fail. Would one continue to top off the water? Now say 50% said it will fail? Now say 97%?
What’s the prudent thing to do? Mike
Prudent thing to do: buy more tequila. (and the “exact opposite 3% number is bullshit)
Oops. Three percent (3%) is the fact.
https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
But, more importantly, I even allowed you 50%. It must be exhausting trying to stay doctrinally pure. Mike
When government decrees “consensus” you ought to be bright enough to know the fix is in
Eldon? F’n I remember correctly. Rimshot! :)
go out and start your car…wait 30 minutes and put your hand on the radiator….pretty warm! 220 degrees,that the motor is putting out,times 300 million people…no manmade warming!
Go put your hand in a volcano. Bigger effect
He might take that as a compliment Jon. Climate change won’t matter in a couple years. Clock is ticking. Lil over 2 years left. IF your not paying off debt and saving money now?? Then you’re the idiot.
It won’t matter who is right about climate when the world economy implodes.
The Don will be left holding the bag. Everything is unfolding as predicted before Trump won the Republican nominee.
:)
The big crash cometh.
Yeah, bs,best mike
yeah I believe in cycles how come I can’t get up and go to bed the same time every night instead it kind of progresses in oh well it’s an hour later I’m kind of thinking a hey this is not my plan it
Juss out here in the meltin pot Jon. Melt or git off d pott.
Jon, read the data! Jiggered!!!
George,
I almost hate to wade into the climate change debate…again. The true believers can’t be convinced otherwise no matter how much data you put out there. They just keep clinging to the lies about consensus, etc, etc. I don’t understand the psychology, but it has to be the same phenomenon as religious zealots and the like. I posted this a while back, but here it is again:
I am very familiar with the data. My views on this do not stem from my political attitude or anything of that sort. It comes from looking at the problem with a level head and making conclusions based on the observational data. The basic problem, like I explained above, is that science does not understand climate well enough to support the conclusion that any one thing is the primary driver of climate change. We’re decades away from that level of understanding or maybe longer. What we do know is that climate does change. That is undeniable. What is deniable is that we know why. There is far too much doubt about any of it to even possibly blame one single factor or consider international policy decisions.
There is no, nor has there ever been, a consensus on this subject among scientists. That is a false narrative. The models aren’t evidence of anything, their predictions are wrong and they don’t match the observational data. Not one dire thing that has ever been predicted about AGW has come to pass. Not one. There is no catastrophic sea level rise, no melting of polar ice caps, more catastrophic hurricanes or any other thing that has been used to scare the public. Many of the graphs and graphics that show rising temps and other metrics are based on ‘adjusted’ data or they start at certain years. For example, arctic sea ice is said to be at an all-time low. Well, that is partially true, if you start your record in 1979. What’s significant about 1979? The answer given is that is when satellite records began. Well, that’s not exactly true. If you read the 1990 IPCC report
and look at Chapter 7, Figure 7.20 you’ll see that satellite records actually go back to 1973. Also, we have reasonably good arctic sea ice records all the way back to the 1920’s. So, why start in 1979 and not 1973 or even the 1920’s? It’s because arctic sea extent in 1979 was close the highest it had been since records had been kept. It was much lower than today in 1973, the 1940’s and 1950’s. So, the question that must be asked is why would the data be misrepresented that way? The only obvious answer is to deceive the public by making a case for AGW that is not supported by the observational data. The observational data says that the statement that arctic sea ice is at a record low is false. Also known as a lie. I could go on and on with examples of blatant falsehoods stated about this subject. It’s almost a perfect crime because they know that most people will never trouble themselves to check the data and that even if they did they wouldn’t be able to comprehend it. Those who do speak out against it are branded has heretics and publicly shouted down.
The statement that there are no peer reviewed papers refuting AGW is also completely false. Everything that I say can be backed up by literally thousands of peer reviewed papers.
I’m providing a link to a repository of that information. I find it hard to believe anyone with a rational mind that takes the time to honestly read and absorb the information that’s out there couldn’t realize that AGW, as presented to the public, is false.
The climate alarmists are on the wrong side of science on this thing and on the wrong side of history. My fear is that it will take a long time for people to trust science again once they realize how it has been hijacked.
http://www.populartechnology.net/2009/10/peer-reviewed-papers-supporting.html
https://youtu.be/vIdTHFujDnI
Sonny please watch it this time
These 3 videos will answer over a 100 of your questions, son
https://youtu.be/SQx3nI8Z2zg
This one second
https://youtu.be/6HoOhTwEj-0
Sonny and this and this one thirdly lastly because it may be a little bit hard for you to comprehend
Jon –
I have been to China for weeks at a time in the last few years – and have had Beijing lung every time.
Your generation has no idea of what things were like before the Clean Air Act and the EPA – but I can tell you that it was quite similar to China and Mumbai. We cleaned up our act, and things are better.
Being IN Houston, I can tell you that the air is just fine, especially when compared to L.A. Yes you can go down to Texas City or Deer Park and be guaranteed to get a nose-full – but what can you expect with some of the largest refineries in the country situated there?
Mexico City may be the worst I have been in – it is both raw sewage, trash and really bad air at altitude – yech…
But…this has zippo to do with climate change – this is a pollution issue. There are human induced climate effects, but they are dwarfed by a single large volcanic eruption such as Pinatubo. I think we are worrying about the paint when we should be worrying about the sagging timbers – deforestation, plastic pollution and sexual effects, etc.
I think reducing deforestation would have far more impact than anything else – not to mention trees are just plain nice to have and see and enjoy.
Cali? GDP doesn’t matter if the cash flow for the state is negative and bond sales are holding the entire house of cards up.
My issues with the EPA are simply over-reach and excessive regulations. Example? If I have a 100% biodegradable testing fluid that is completely non-toxic, I have to file the same reports as a company that uses radioactive testing fluid. Example 2 – the EPA does not need and cannot manage streams and rivers and creeks and rain runoff for the entire country – yet this is what they are attempting to do. There is no reason for this type of micromanagement, and it is terribly expensive.
If the petroleum age started around 1915, then we are right at 100 years into it and have used half of the available resource. If we keep happy motoring and BAU, then we will be near the post-petroleum age when you are an old geezer. So there is an end in sight for petroleum – but what comes next?
Jon will sell you an electric car.
Ask him where the manual charger is…
Jon –
Cual es tu problema? Es normal que muchos texanos hablan dos lenguas! California no tiene nada en Texas con respecto a varios idomas!
Please don’t lump everyone in the same basket my young friend – xiexie?
Regardless, English should be the primary language in this country. Everything else should be optional. Those of us wishing more can avail ourselves cheaply and easily to learn other tongues – whar? Es funktioniert in duetschland!
You are definitely at the brain warp stage. Get thee behind me, Satan.
Comment For jonny boi
A bragging liberal globalist republican with no respect for his elders.
ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM!!!
George you money guys are huge on cycles no?
Maunder Minimum? 400 year cycle? Mini ice age?
As the sun sleeps Cosmic Rays increase cloud cover, higher highs, lowerlows. Or jet stand a mess!
CRM Cosmic Ray Management aka Chemtrailing, has failed!
CR’s up 12° going up a further 19° by 2018?
Noticed the UV on the planet lately? Extreme to say the least?
The food shortages have begun, prices will be up 400% for a decade from reports.
The argument is over, three Sun pleads guilty!
Now as I recon we don’t have long before real chaos begins.
But I’m just simple folk tired of this wrong argument…
Meglamania jon
Hi Jon, sonny have you yet encountered a place for the use the old tell so technology worrying pull into it and you don’t have to plug into it have you come across one of those yet you know like with the new cell phones for you can lay it near the charging safe station and it charges it up do they have those with the with the Telsa car yet
You do remember me telling you everything will go to Crystal powered eventually that’s how the UFOs 1947 Got The Power from its to Crystal that’s how the body of the alien being is got his powers through crystals it didn’t eat didn’t breathe didn’t sleep it was the crystal technology are you starting to get a handle on what the future will be including all man to I mean he’s going to have to realize that to the Future isn’t Chris Align Technology mix with Organix and to be organic you’re coming from derivatives of all the natural things that we have so it’s all the natural things that we have but on this planet we don’t have all the things that the rest of the universe has so that’s where we’ll have to make we make it you make those complex things that are natural and other planets we have the ability to do that we don’t have to go there to do that we have the ability to create that out of thin air so speak
So you’re saying if the volcanoes and I all the other unmanned made things are happening and keeping us into a stable environment that all it takes is just a little bit from us to tip the edge over to where now we have catastrophic instances
How stupid can you be to let your wife drive a car that cannot even get 300 miles to a tank! Once again, not impressed, but go ahead, try again!
Global warming, is it natural or caused by man huge debate material with plenty on either side.
I am for solar , wind, alcohol, Bio fuels, but then I partially heat my house with coal, respect the past embrace the future.
As for growing your own groceries. since we as a species seem to build on what once was prime crop land yes green growing green buildings should be wanted..