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Mid-session Friday...

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A Bit Longish this morning - sorry - much to cover...

Where's My Damn Rally?

There's not much different between idiots and economists, because although the economist may be more schooled in math, the old saying is that "God looks out for drunks and idiots."  There was no mention of economists.

Although I went short earlier this week with the S&P in the 1,327 area, the S&P has continued its decline and my trade is "upside down" about 8½ percent since I use leverage - not be satisfied to have the casino beat me financially senseless slowly.  If I'm gonna get a beating, let's make it a big one.

Still, I present for your consideration my view of how all this should work out, in coming weeks though like a mentor of mine in horse race handicapping once instructed me "Horses don't read the Racing Form."  Turns out, so far at least, the markets are being a little  lexdysic (sic) here, too.

As this crude model (and the linkages are not as tight as I've drawn then) shows, if there is anything approaching optimism out of Greece, the markets should do a huge bounce off a key long-term trend line from here, or you might as well start buying Mac & Cheese now since it would means Wave 3 of the massive cyclical economic Depression is getting serious and financial life on Earth is on the way out.

Thus motivated (can't have Fleet Street, Wall Street, and Hamptons real estate all collapsing in a heap till after elections) I expect that Greece will come up with new elections talk and/or some kind of a muddle-through to at least hold things off for a while longer.  Right now there are so many bears out there (new prophets of doom are showing up hourly at the ranch asking how to write depressing prose) that the Bulls have only to breathe lightly on their cash registers to run to recent highs and maybe new highs.

So this morning - Angela Merkel of Germany is calling-out the Greece president/chief double-sprecher, who - for obvious language barriers - she doesn't seem to understand.

Yet other headlines suggest that the end of the world is not quite here.  A Spanish bank (Bankia) say its share pop an amazing 25.88% and this is why I have placed a red area on the EU collapse fears which should allow US marts to move up at least for a while.

Still, I have only a tiny fraction of our net worth in paper assets, not even enough to make a down payment on a new car, since the bulk of our money is in the asset classes which make sense.

Where to Park Your Money?

Speaking of which, you may remember that in 2005 we bought an adjoining chunk of land to our 13-acre homestead out here in the East Texas outback, since (as I have been preachifying to Peoplenomics readers) paper-denominated assets are dangerous, easy to manipulate, and I tend not to trust people I can't look in the eye.

So here's the thing:  I got our new property tax assessment on this 14.5 acre piece which has a cost basis of $26.734.  Well, the County now says it has an assessed valuation of $39,910 and - judging by local land prices out here in El Sticks - I'm guessing it might sell for $55,000 were I such a damn fool.  Which means - round numbers - that the property has doubled since about April of 2005.

A little comparison shopping now: If you go over to Yahoo Finance, you look up and see that the Dow Industrials May 17 of 2005 closed at 11,205.  A lousy 11 percent gain.  Yuck!  If you had needed your money at the bottom (April 2009) you would have gotten a 40% haircut, too...

Just so you don't think I am "cherry-picking" the data, the S&P 500 closed May 17, 2005  at 1,173.80.  A whopping 11.1654455614 percent gain.

My point?  Yes, owning property is a pain, but if you buy the right property - which I was pretty careful to do, even after taxes (less than $100 a year out here in the dingle-toolies) my raw land purchase has been a hell of a fine investment compared with, oh, say a pile of paper.  Especially if you count up the risks of paper, trusty purported "experts" (remember Madoff?  MF Gotawaywithit?). 

True, unworked, land doesn't produce anything but until a global flu pandemic or whatever kills a half billion people or more, seems like putting retirement funds into useable (desirable) land makes more sense than putting it in paper, much of which is only useful on the morning jaunt to the throne room.

NATO and G8 Weekend

The Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) has a pretty good story (w/vid) about the temporary flight restrictions around Washington and Chicago this weekend for the NATO & G8 meetings with lots of .mils and .money people coming from all over.  Like there's not enough to do flying in crowded, restricted, and already redlined (in the case of DC) airspace, already, toss in this.

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Pilots (like Ures truly) go through a ritual before flying anywhere, which includes a weather briefing and TFR (temporary flight restrictions  check) and even when flying under Visual rules, we're almost always using the FAA's great "flight following"

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Side Note:  That near-miss with a "something" over Denver this week is still no known.  I hear the odds of it being a drone are low and odds highest that it was most likely an R/C hobbyists gotten carried away - 2000 feet above ground level...but ear is still to the ground on this and the whole UAV's is comin' problem.  Read: "10 things you don't know about drones."

Prediction:  FAA public affairs will likely find Overzealous R/C driver and issue a reminder to radio-controlled hobbyists next week or the week after.

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Back to point (NATO/G8) which we got off of at the last turn: Officialdom is apparently planning to block public use of cell phones locally in ChiTown during the NATO conference, which on the one hand might be defensible since social media is flash-mob prone.  But, on the other, where's the FCC to to sure public's need for emergency services - especially by people who have given up landlines and are cell phone only - during this media fiasco? 

So here's my suggestion:  If you have any kind of a health condition (heart, lung, diabetic, etc) have you thought about leaving Chicago for the weekend of all this turmoil?  Bet'cha once you get out to some of the less fortified areas outside prince Emmanuel's city-state you could actually find reasons not to return...

Roots of the President, Re-Re-Redux

We notice the Obama folks are in butt-covering mode (again) this morning trying (so far successfully) to fast-talk their way out of a 1991 publishing house promotional piece which says, in part, that Obama was born in Kenya.

Curiously (or is this predictably?) the MSM is jumping to the office-holder's defense with some, like ABC reporting "Obama's Literary Agent Misidentified His Birthplace in 1991."

Say what?  A presidential revelation (release of all original school records, student loan docs, draft card, social security card [he can get a new one]) might put a lot of this to rest...For all the talk these folks in DC have done about "transparency" I'm sure haven't seen it on this issue yet.  I can see .PDF layers well as the next guy. 

The Buffett Papers

While I'm working on my book about the end of the internet, please note that Warren Buffett is now buying up papers, like those 63 of Media General down in Vahginia.

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Ask yourself "How long can government let a free-running internet survive if it questions everything from the president's birthplace to whether foreclosures are legit, and whether paper money is corrupt and whether Washington's been bought by corporations using arm's length DC law firms, PACs and Super-PACs to do it?

I propose the answer is not "Forever."  The WB may have come to that, too.  One big T-attack and it could all be over for the internet ending in a near-miss for the rising of the global mass consciousness.  The excuses would be wrapped up in flags and such, but a licensed/controlled press - on the pretext of protecting government and not giving comfort to the enemy - would probably be thought to play, except amongst those cogent enough to remember "...enemies, both foreign and domestic..."

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Around here, we do try to live by the old eastern European folk wisdom: "Tell the truth (or near as we can get at it) and leave shortly thereafter."

Holder's Mixed Record

Right to Record

I've mentioned a couple of times that I was planning to get a DVR and have it running - ostensibly for insurance/safety purposes - next time Elaine and I head out on a big trip.

Now, the Justice Department has come out with a strong statement in support of the public's "right to record" so at least Eric Holder may not be doing everything bad.

Still, there's discussion that he could face contempt charges in the Gunwalker/Fast & Furious case.

I'm still trying to figure out whether it's just a nonstop spew of political jingoisms coming out of Russia where Holder's been calling for "cooperation" with Russian law enforcement.  WTH?  As your local nutjob I have to wonder what's to be gained from cooperation with a KGB-inspired pseudo-legal system that's already infiltrated (arguably saturated) with Russian narco-dollars?  Is this a junket to practice blather-speak to deflect and delay the Issa F&F probe's questions?  Hep me, bro...I ain't trackin'.

Stampeded and Panicked Dept.

The other day I was mentioning that a good part of the problem with the alarmist media may be coming from the fact that radiation monitoring gear has gotten so good.  Well, here's another ponder for you from our consulting assistant director of a reactor dude:

"Hi George,

Just FYI on the whole “let’s all be scared of low doses of radiation” thing. Yet another study showing no effects to elevated, but still low, doses of radiation:

Integrated Molecular Analysis Indicates Undetectable DNA Damage in Mice after Continuous Irradiation at ~400-fold Natural Background Radiation (Olipitz, et al).

Would you really evacuate Tokyo if they saw an increase in background radiation that clocks in far less than the dose you get from eating a banana?"

Absolutely NOT.  On the other hand, I wonder how long before the Japanese government bans imports of bananas now?

Great East Texas Quake - A Prequel?

I was too kind for letting the oil industry off the hook in Thursday's report, says Oilman2, who has property not too far distant from the quakicenter of that 4.3 early Thursday in East Texas:

"Just an FYI – the area the quake hit is between Timpson, TX and Highway 315, which runs from Mt. Enterprise to Carthage. This area is swiss cheese below 12,000’ due to horizontal wells and fraccing for natural gas. There is a natural gas fired power station on Hiway 315 about 10 miles from the quake. It is fed by the local natural gas wells in Panola and Rusk counties. The quake was 6600’ deep – and to me, that means simple settling of the disturbed deeper fractured rocks.

There isn’t likely to be some kind of “master research” into this, as the leases are very competitive. Most are owned by Chesapeake, Anadarko and other independents – and they do not share their information.

The troubling thing is that oil and gas RISE or float on water. Both oil and gas are always seeking the surface, and tend to follow water and fractures as geopressure forces them up. We are fracturing rock, in grossly uncontrollable fashion, to free oil and gas. Once freed, it will migrate. There are entire companies based on predicting migration of oil and gas.

Since 1 TEASPOON of oil or gas can foul 10,000 gallons of water and turn it poisonous – it doesn’t take much to kill an aquifer.

It would be interesting to see if these quakes were causing leaks in casing and cement in the wells around the quake. In a few years, it would hit surface aquifers if there are leaks. That’s why I find it troubling – in a world where the future is 90 days, little thought goes beyond the quarterly report. No thought goes into what this could mean to those in the area in the next generation.

Oilman2

All of which would be filed in our "no worries pile" (fracking ain't gonna quit and we need energy, except that the electronic coice phenomena sites are talking about quakes to come and remember that EVP report from yesterday's "Coping" section?  Try this one one for size from "Henry's human:"

"I just got a chance to see my letter to you in print on your site and my eyes caught on something interesting that you addressed today and that is earthquakes in Texas . As a person who is interested in earth changes I have been watching the USGS maps for almost ten years on a daily basis , so it's not new news to me. The other day while listening to one of my recordings there was an abrupt change of topic where they suddenly said.....earthquake in Texas between 8-9 magnitude.....anyone who does not live there should get the he'll out.....it will rip the earth open.

I quickly clicked on the USGS and my jaw hit the floor because there was activity of the unusual kind in the area. They have not said anything further since that day. I did not know what to do so I sent a very brief letter off to the USGS on their contact sheet. I did not bother to explain anything and had no interest in their ridicule. I gave them the low down just as it had been given to me....in one sentence. Several days later I got a letter back from the USGS and my jaw hit the floor again as they seemed interested in the warning and were taking it seriously. And I have the letter to prove that I am not crazy.

Strange things emanate from the otherside......according to franks recordings that are found on sound cloud also under oldmanalien.....a meteor will hit the earth on June 15th and the earth will go boom. So who the he'll knows:)

Gotta say, a lot of this does sound a bit "out there" BUT in fairness, there have been some reasonable hits reported for predictive technologies of which EVP is one, though how it works seems to depend on the specific technique and who's using it.

Still, after I get a few ham radio contact reports done with my son today and tomorrow, I'll get the big ham radio tower cranked down (lesser moment arm in ground movement) and funny how Universe arranged (pretty much out of the blue) this week for my airplane to be moved to a private hangar instead of in the big/open/public hangar.

Don't know what to make of that yet, except moment/arm calcs in physics make the smaller hangar (stout shot steel) seem pretty robust....hmmm....more distractions from doing client / real work or not?

Deeper Thinking Dept.

Reader note on a news item from earlier this week:

"...but the money the West has pissed away on war-prepping could have given every head of household in North Korea probably $500,000 in cash,..."

 

Yes, that shows how much of a profitable venture it has been for the banks that fund such activities.

Not pissed away, but turned into banker profits."

Oh yeah - I forgot:  NOT!

Thank your lucky stars I'm a peaceful moderate.

Coping:  The Odd Intersection of UFO's and Gay Rights

A novel thought takes form.  But before we get there, let's me explain a bit about how it arises and what some of the important (read: possible) motivations for all the froo-haa about UFO's may be.  Let me begin with a note from a deep .mil type who is in a position to speak - freely - but without names, of course as you'll understand as you read this:

"Hi George,

See this?

Link to story: "UFO Amnesty: Ex-Army Colonel John Alexander seeks amnesty for military who Witness UFOs."

I personally know a few guys who might want to contact Mr. Alexander.

Here's the deal. A sizable number of current and ex-military had or still have access to special access programs. Entry into such programs and the ability to maintain that access requires periodic lie detector tests along with signing a 70 year non-disclosure agreement pertaining to all things related to the program. Comply, or win an all expenses paid vacation to Ft Leavenworth Federal Penitentiary in Kansas.

Anyone briefed into such a program who runs into UFO evidence is prohibited from disclosing said info as it might compromise the source - which could be a highly classified program and/or associated "national technical means."   [Dot mill buzz-term for our satellites, spy gear and secret reduced-gravity (GR) technologies which everyone who's done serious readings already knows about at some level anyway...even without talking to those silenced at Ft. Youdontwannagothere Kansas. - G]

Of course, observation while away from the classified program, such as hiking, while on leave or off-duty, and in an area dissociated from the special access program, is fair game. But anyone on active duty knows reporting such things can result in termination of their clearance, being passed over for promotion, or discharge from the service (and thus loss of their job).   [Quick! look surprised here!-G]

This particularly applies to pilots and aircrew, who can be grounded for reporting having a "potentially psychotic experience" while in control of or on duty in a military aircraft. Same thing goes for personnel manning military airport facilities, such as control towers and approach radar sites.

I'm all for amnesty! An unburdened mind is ultimately a pretty good thing, no?"

Since I've been hanging around Mr. Linguistics for 11-odd years shortly, you don't need to be a genius to know that our source might have something he'd like to become unburdened of...even  if it happened on non .mil time.  But, of course, we carefully note that he hasn't directly stated this and - since I'm a self-confessed nutjob (keeps official questions to a minimum) anything I write (and you happen to read) is just more from that borderland area between reality and outright fiction .  It's not a 'hard layer" after all.

So that's the first thing to be aware of:  Disclosure would be mighty damn interesting.

Now - in a Friday-morning mental workout frenzy...got this here email in the wake of my visit to Vicksburg MS and my discussion of how gay rights could be (in some parts of the country) the kind of issue that could divide family against family. 

He asked a very simple question:  Could breaking down the racial barriers between humans be part of a larger training program demanded by extraterrestrials, who could also demand Earth get over homophobia before being offered entrance into a wider federation of beings from planets other than this old rock?

Might it be - wondered the email - that before we get to disclosure and contact we first have to evolve to the point where we can put aside physical differences and co-exist on our planet before we're given the chance to go elsewhere.

Like even back to the Moon?

Something to think about for damn sure.  And - such mandated "training" might explain much of what else is so orchestrated about how we live and why we're fed physically and mentally as we are.

Counterpoint is a worry, though:  You do remember the Kanamits from the "To Serve Man" Twilight Zone episode (it turned out to be a cookbook).

The Ure UFO Postulate:

"Maybe Humans have been instructed to progress or die!" by off-worlders.  But could such commands also be designed to weaken us and make us easier prey, less vicious fighters, independent thinkers, and threats to an intergalactic Hive? 

Absent conclusive evidence, we must wonder are our Leaders (and military) also perplexed by the question:  "Are we being raised as children would be, or as lunch?"

The vast numbers of people who simply go missing every year argues for secrecy, non-disclosures, and the "You don't want to be a part of the planet-wide entrée do you?" case.

And are you sure the grays are not already in various chronicles of human history as giants, Nephalim, and such?  And what is it my doctor friends always tell me?  First do not harm - isn't that it?  Hmmm...

"Show Me the Love" Dept.

I didn't mean to sound any more pissy than usual on Thursday, but sometimes we just gotta "calls 'em like we see's 'em..."  And apparently, our mention that the public might be noticing the long on hype and bullshit stories in the MSM had the "ring of truth" to it...

"Aho George, The Media is much like the rest of the Establishment...they have made themselves irrelevant with their bullshit. The so called top end of our society is filled with cream puffs, talking heads with little or no substance. Put a hammer, a shovel, a rake or a hoe in their hands and they would be useless."

Another writes:

"Morning George,

It’s good to see you vent a little frustration at all the “hype”. Seems like everything we see or read these days is just hype and propaganda…

I have found it to get old really quickly and just get bored. Some people just need to shut the flock up for a while and focus on themselves and what is important to them. Maybe then communities can get back to taking care of themselves.

No one is ever satisfied with what is in front of them… family, neighbors, friends… they are always looking to the end of something (the world, the economy, the country, the lies) so they can watch it on TV and feel sorry for the one’s it affects. (which is never going to be them, right?)

I wonder if this is how the first part of consciousness waking up humanity is manifesting itself. It has to get people’s attention without causing a panic. The slow build up is just getting humans to all look in the same direction so that when the real show from universe happens, everyone will see it and say… holy shit – did you just see that?!  Because from that moment forward they will be realizing and digesting what universe wants them to digest.

It just sucks for those of us who are early risers (who woke up, ate breakfast already, went to work 4 hours ago and came home at lunch to see their eighteen year old kid still lying in bed asleep at noon) We get frustrated because we see the potential, but with nothing for them to go to and apply themselves, we are resigned to being patient and waiting for that day to come.

Society today is that teenager and patience is our lesson. Universe had to get some of us ready to help those that tend to wake up later in the day. So here we are left watching the slow pokes – I just wish some of us would calm down and be quiet for a while because no one really knows what is going to happen. We can only deal with what is in front of us on a daily basis. "

Yes (you're gonna hate this) Yes...and No. 

Yes it would be nice to wake everyone up, but No, being quiet just lets them sleep (even longer). 

This ain't a new problem:  It's been the same conundrum conundrum faced by every good reporter I every knew up through when I  walked away from it back 1983.  That decision came one evening (with a couple of large Cribari Vino Biancos) after covering the Wah Mee Massacre story in February of '83 that I got to thinking that maybe there's more to life than being a go-getter news director.  June of that year I did my last on-air newscast.

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It's a more common problem than you might expect among newsers and one I talked with my mentor (the late) BR Bradbury about over a half a Mason jar of moonshine he'd come up with somewhere after moving back to the Northwest (KJR after his LA days).  In one of those odd quirks of fate, he'd moved to a house in Kirkland just the other side of the greenbelt from us.  We were both shocked how Universe worked on that one.

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News is hard on people - especially on good people (like BR).  Just like being a cop is hard, or being in the military and pulling a trigger for a living.  Yeah, the job's got to be gone by someone, but some professions are hard on the soul by the nature of their subject matter.  Police beat is one them - social work is another.  Politics is a pathetic joke and incredibly superficial in comparison.

The hell of it is we don't pay people - in this society or any other I'd want to be part of - based on quality of their hearts, or for the emotional burdens they bear on behalf of the F'd/U society we live in.  T'ain't right, of course, that we don't and you'd think we could find a better way.  That's bugged people since the Stone Age, I suppose.

Which is why my beat is what it is now:  Periodic reality checks and business reporting because I still have a streak of gambler in me.  Rest assured, though if I get a whiff of something better, you can damn-sure bet'cha I'll let you know right away when I find it.

ET speculations aside, we've not got much progress to show for all the lives lived on this here rock; stuck on our outsides instead of our insides.

Oh well...next?

Violence Prone Neanderthals, 3

But, if you don't believe me about real mass murders like Wah Mee (and the reality of real dead people) I'm sure you'll enjoy the new version of Sniper Elite V2 which makes it onto the Popular Science website under the heading "My Three Hours with the Most Violent Videogame I've Ever Seen."

Maybe it's my nature to be sickened of violence, but are the gang-rapes mutilations, and beheadings in these games yet?  Or, come to think of it, do I really want to know?  I think I can suspise the answer.

To Flu or Not to Flu

Yes, that is the question, alright.  A couple of readers have asked me to comment on the latest rumor going around that goes to the idea that somehow there is a connection between troubles in the banking industry, Big Pharma, and a plot to turn loose a new and scarier kind of flu bug which when combined with the flu shots used recently would trigger a massive die off of humans.

Never one to swallow conspiracies whole, I sent a note to our consulting PhD microbiologist who was kind enough to "take me to school" a bit since recombinant DNA technology was not part of the business/geek track in school:

"Hi George,

Seems like a variant on the usual "don't take the flu vaccination" internet talk. I bought into it 3 years ago & didn't get vaccinated. I either had the world's worst cold or mild flu. It was very unpleasant. My wife is a nurse & she gets vaccinated every fall. She did not get whatever I had, even though I had a raging fever & was hacking my lungs out. Our teenage daughter has gotten the nasal mist or shot every year for the past 5 years. The only vaccine NONE of us took was the H1N1 variety specific to the 09 outbreak. It was new & we felt potentially rushed, so not worth the risk.

The vaccines usually have 2 versions of influenza A virus & 1 version of influenza B. The shots use inactivated (AKA dead) virus. Dead viral genetic material cannot recombine. This is hard to explain for non-molecular biologists, but in a nutshell: the virus particles have to be able to infect human cells. When the virus hijacks the cellular machinery to make more copies of itself, recombination can occur. Dead virus cannot both infect human cells and take over the RNA/DAN/protein making machinery. It is impossible. The nasal spray uses attenuated (live, low infectivity) virus.

Recombination is such a rare event that even if a person had the nasal spray with all of the viruses mentioned in that article, or multiple doses of nasal spray with each different kind, the odds are that a person will get hit many times by lightning in their lifetime before even one recombination event would happen.

With wild (found in nature) flu viruses the viruses are both highly infective and alive. Hence that recombination is more likely.

That's why a person, bird, pig or dog getting sick with say bird & swine flu at the same time is risky & could lead to the dreaded recombination event that will wipe out a billion or so people. It is still a rare event, but more likely than with vaccines.

Probably every year there are hundreds to thousands of animals that do get infected by more than one strain of flu virus at the same time, but the dreaded recombination event still has not happened. The following is heavy on the high-context techno-babble, but it does discuss the rarity of likely recombination events with fully infective virus: http://jvi.asm.org/content/82/10/4807.full 

Remember, gene swapping, recombination events don't just happen randomly. Stretches of RNA/DNA must align perfectly & the human cell facilitates the swap. I apologize for not being able to be very convincing here, but my problem is the same as if you were trying to explain why shortwave radio can behave differently at night sometimes than in the day time, but a person didn't understand wavelength, frequency or a bit about the ionosphere. The right basics need to be present to have the conversation. If I started talking about reverse transcriptase, ribosomes proof-reading mechanisms in the way to truly understand what is going on, it would be like me speaking in tongues.

Anyway, if there really were a conspiracy to thin the population using influenza, it would be much easier for a nefarious group to make the deadly recombinations in a lab & release into a small, mobile population. Natural spread would take care of the rest. Hoping it would happen with legitimate vaccines would be a disappointing hope for them."

Hmmm.....that does make me feel somewhat more at ease, but just the same, I think again this year I will limit myself to shots only dispensed from the local adult beverage dispensary, as they seem to lower blood pressure a bit, and the Italian, French and California varietal seem to add just enough reversotrol and flavoring to accent most stews I cobble up to concentrate vitamins and deliver pre-patient comfort.

Friday at the Moose-Jo

Several readers have asked me to comment on a report out of Canada about a woman who ran into a moose (so thinking goes) and while it smashed up her car good and left her cut and bleeding, she managed to go to work and was shocked when co-workers pointed out the accident to her.

All of which leaves us wondering what the dickens was going on?  How can someone like hit a frigging moose and not notice that it wrecked the car?  So this alternate reality - thinning of the veils stuff - continues.

Oh - and my lifelong friend who's an ex-Army shrink dude says the number of reports of vivid dreams (he works with subtle-=energy training) is continuing to increase.

All of which sets up a weekend ponder:  Science has pretty well bashed and banished magick from the world ("It's all got a scientific basis," they'll say with a straight face...) but what IF as we cross the galactic ecliptic in the next however many months it is...we find out that magic is normal and what passes for science is just a poor attempt at explaining the magic of humans cocreating reality with Universe. 

Of course the students of quantum physics know this is the real case since the observer expectations change reality in so many repeatable ways as to not be funny...

And those who would look at things like Clif's work and jeer "See, predictions have been missed!" don't get it: The mere act of looking at the future changes it.

So as we await the next web bot run, the real question is not so much what's to be forecast that will occur, so much as I'm equally drawn to what dire events are expected, but then because the future has been "seen" promptly changes to something else-wise.

Ah, the art of grasping the thistle of time:  Hard enough to feel it - sometimes mightily so, yet soft enough not to collapse it into nothing.

Don't mean to make this morning such a long report - I oughta save it for working into my book.

The Weekend Ponder

From an email:

Only in America could the people who believe in balancing the budget and sticking by the country's Constitution be thought of as "extremists."

Over at the Strategic-Living website, SurvivalWoman and I have a new interview with a lady private eye which wonders "Are you Safe from Snooping Eyes?"  Answer if you're in a rush is no, but a damn interesting article on what's going on in the world of gumshoes these days.  Yup, we know people in all kinds of places...  SurvivalWoman piece on "Paracord for Function and Fashion" is good stuff, too, since I am one of those paracord-wearing guys when traveling, especially over the mountainous West.

That oughta keep you busy for a while - and of course, we'll be back with more of our typically cheerful, how to face the collapse of the world advice at the regular time on tomorrow morning.

I'm gonna go watch and see if my expected rally can re-ignite itself off the housing numbers this morning...

Tuesday May 15, 2012

Big Rally Day

About here, Peoplenomics readers will be saying "Oh...got'cha..." on my latest move of both nickels in markets yesterday morning.  The S&P, NASDAQ, and other indices were up smartly in the preopen due to the bond sales in Europe.

If you're trying to figure the "long-chain molecule" I think it may go something like this:  Rates going up in EU bond sales increases the inflation expectations which, in turn, increase the price of gold, silver, oil, and other commodities and this them makes fractions of ownership in American companies look like they may go up, too...and a rally is what ensues.  Which I think is where we are this morning, except that leads to...

Inflation Outlook

Consumer price index report out this morning is stuck on "no movement:"

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The energy index, which had risen in each of the three previous months, declined in April on a seasonally adjusted basis and offset increases in the other major indexes. The gasoline index fell 2.6 percent in April and accounted for most of the decline in energy, though the indexes for natural gas and fuel oil decreased as well. The food index rose in April as five of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in April, the same increase as in March. Increases in the indexes for shelter, used cars and trucks, medical care, airline fares, new vehicles, and apparel all contributed significantly to the April increase.

The 12-month change in the index for all items was 2.3 percent in April, the lowest figure since February 2011. The index for all items less food and energy also increased 2.3 percent over the last 12 months. This is the first time since October 2009 that the 12-month all items change has not exceeded the 12-month change for all items less food and energy. The food index has risen 3.1 percent over the last 12 months, and the energy index has risen 0.9 percent.

I've always wondered why "seasonal adjustments" would matter in year-on-year numbers...I mean wouldn't one summer be pretty much like another...so what's to adjust?  See?  This is why I can't get a high paid government job:  I ask the wrong questions.

Spending Data

Even more interesting:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $408.0 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 6.4 percent (±0.7%) above April 2011. Total sales for the February through April 2012 period were up 6.6 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The February to March 2012 percent change was revised from 0.8 percent (±0.5) to 0.7 percent (±0.3%).

 

Retail trade sales were up 0.1 percent (±0.5%)* from March 2012 and 6.1 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Nonstore retailers sales were up 11.0 percent (±3.1%) from April 2011 and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were up 10.3 percent (±2.8%) from last year.

But I ask:  Does this look like a recovery?

Obviously, I need to get my eyes checked again.

Pervert

It's refreshing not to be on the receiving end of such labeling, for a change.  Seems Rebekah Brooks (former Murdoch employee) is to be charged (along with hubby) for "perverting the course of justice..."

America Going to Pot

Might want to sign up to volunteer next time a Minnesota law enforcement training program is held...seems they were giving pot to a volunteer to see what their reactions would be.  Volunteers?  Show of hands?

Paranoia Meds?

A lot of people have asked me if I think there's anything to a  supposed DHS whistleblower claiming a Reichstag type event is in the planning stage in order to enact martial law in the US.

Let us know how the Secret Service interview goes.

Digital Wallet

Our Canadian news analyst has been watching the wallet lately:

Digital wallets would be the next Big Thing...except for the problem an increasing number of us don't have anything to put in them.

Voting Day

In Nebraska.  Our reader there needed reminding. Texans go to the polls on May 29th...two weeks.

No. The words of the Canadian reader are not mine to apologize for.  I published his note as it reflects one side of a very important issue, just as this morning's counterpoint represents the other view. 

As I am sure you are aware, wars are fought at many levels and in case you have forgotten what's we're doing in the sandbox, zakat charged by the Taliban on opium is a serious and ongoing problem for the World and I don't read too much about the Muslim community denouncing the Taliban, though admittedly I haven't researched it too closely.  A fuller discussion of the subject may be found in "How Opium Profits the Taliban."

I'd also note in passing, that Islam does have, in its history, large scale wars of conquest, although formal US operations of today are admittedly more current, they are in size much smaller proportionate to population.  And it can certainly be argued that the Crusades of the 11th-13th centuries were a delayed reaction (payback) to these earlier wars of conquest.

While I'm none-too-pleased with US conduct in many respects, a read of the history of the scimitar reveals its roots were not in the USA and on a per capita (decapita?) basis, it was one of histories most horrific inventions.  All the parties, seems to me, have blood on their hands, so who is fit to lead?

Has there been universal Muslim outrage that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, too?   Renunciation of states not signing the nonproliferation treaty?  (*Including Israel, btw.) Sorry....who's fit to lead...seriously!

Monday May 14, 2012

Special Update:

As I mentioned to Peoplenomics subscribers a week or so back, one of the thoughts that crossed my mind while sitting under an old oak tree at the US Civil War Memorial in Vicksburg, MS was that it takes it a really, really big issue to divide a country against itself.  And I wondered then whether gay rights might be such an issue.  It's emotionally hot - feelings run deep - and that makes it something easily manipulated by amoral marketers on both sides of the political trough.

It's worth mentioning the concern again this morning since over the weekend, Newsweek came out with a cover picture of president Obama complete with a rainbow-colored "halo" and the caption lower left "The First Gay President" although many news outfits are asking whether that's quite accurate.

Still, as a half-century viewer of politics in America, there aren't too many things that could divide us against ourselves, though gay rights may have that potential, especially in the deep South where we've been traveling lately.

True, there's a new Gallup Poll out thisi morning that says the majority of Americans have settled on gay/lesbian rights as the "new normal."  But I'd wager a beer (or so) that if one were to overlay a "heat map" on the issue of gay rights today, the geographical similarity to the Civil War might become apparent.

And politics being the crass business of twisting voter's emotions this way and that, don't be surprised to see this become one of the few polarizing issues as we get deeper into the silly season which has the potential to trump the economy.

Depressing 2nd Depression Notes

We've been chronicling this "stealth Depression" since 1997 when it became obvious that we were on an unsustainable path.  (*See chart in the Coping section which follows the news part of this report.)  So it really comes as no surprise to see the headlines that California is now underwater to the tune of $16-billion thanks to too much government, failing pension returns, and the list goes on.

Alas!  When some calls this the worst recession since the 1930's they reveal two important facts:  a) They haven't been reading this site over the past 15-years where I've been something of a broken record on this stuff.  But the second thing they reveal (b)) is that they have no grasp of economic history.

So why are they holding office?

Tanks for Voting, Though

We can help but notice the uneasy calm out of the former Soviet Union (FSU) where Vlad Putin got out the tanks to send a message to Russian voters last week:  I'm back and in charge.

What's the old saying?  Tigers don't change their stripes often?  Or, maybe it's that one-time KGB strongmen didn't keep their roles in the New Russia by playing namby-pamby Mr. Nice.  Same power trippers, new packaging.

Spain Yields

The interest paid by Spain to borrow billions this morning has gone up a bit.  This as Europe wonders if Greece will split the sheets with the EU and strategists wonder how much dough Spain and the other basically broke EU members are going to cost to paper-over.

Dimon's Were Forever

...until the $2-billion blow-up over Thursday and Friday of last week.  Fast-forward to this morning and several excecs are out and the open question seems to be whether this was a big enough spark to cause an explosion (albeit in slow-motion) of the derivatives bubble.  JPMorgan's got something around $71-trillion of notional value.  True, only a small fraction of that could ever be realized (in theory, notes Ures truly nervously).  Even so, that's about 5-times the entire US Gross Domestic Product and how big a fraction does that have to be in order to cause panic in markets?

Freebie NBC Marketing Idea

Speaking of Mr. Dimon, here's a new marketing name for their Meet the Press show.  How about "Meet Depressed?"

Kicking Down Markets

So between the Russians snubbing the G8 meetings, the higher bond yileds out of Spain/Europe, the further collapse of gold by almost $20-bucks, the Newsweek cover, and trading mess at JPMorgan, what will markets worry about next now that a downside move of 1% is possible in today's trading, based on the futures?

Glad you asked.

Retail sales and the consumer price index come out tomorrow and that has the potential to drive the US markets down to the 1,325 (or lower) target we've been patiently waiting for.

Coping: With Canadians and Movie-goers

Got this pretty good email from a reader on the Far Side (or the border with Canada) which you might enjoy. 

You're not going to like this. The reason you won't like it is that you are on the inside and do not see what the rest of us see regularly.

 

I am next door in Canada. We are your good friend and we like you. Yep, someone really IS on your side. I am 67 years old.

 

For most of my life I have listened to Americans being told they are part of the 'greatest country in the world'. Over and over again, all your life, you have been told how wonderful you are.

 

Well, (Take a deep breath here) you were but, you seem to be on the way out. We are all humans.

 

Other countries have risen to prominence over the centuries and they have all faded (Greece comes to mind along with Rome et al). To this day I see, on U.S. channels, 'how we won WWII' movies and documentaries. But, your movie making propagandists seem to forget Britain, France, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, China and some I may have forgotten were also there.

 

We, also all poured our best young men and women into that one. I thank God my Dad, a Wireless Air Gunner, survived.

 

America is not the country it was after WWII. It seems to be poorly led and fading. Just as civilizations of power did before America's rise, (You're still up there, but wobbling) more and more laws, rules and easements are removing your balls and abilities.

 

The obvious loss of moral fiber within society is surely creating visible cracks in your country, which is now seen as weak by the middle eastern people, who are using your politically correct immigration laws to gently invade your country and prepare for the rise and takeover of Islam and Sharia.

 

This has been announced and publicized by members of the Islamic community around the world, but somehow doesn't get much mention in the USA. Islam is in the process of trying to take over the world, and looking in from where I am, nobody seems to care.

 

And so American, what will you do? Will you lie down and let the world walk in and take your country? [I am not advocating hate or violence here, but instead, a rebuilding]

 

The rebuilding starts with you, at home, practicing and teaching your children morals, fairness and integrity. That hard work pays off with a better life. That charity is something good. Lending a helping hand to your neighbor builds friendship and trust. This then is what America was and can be again, but you must build and maintain it.

 

Never forget: You aren't the only beacon of freedom in this world, but you are the brightest and we stand at your side.

That's both comforting but disturbing to read in black and white, isn't it?

As long as we're in Monday morning reality checks, how about this one...

"George,

The movie is the message?

Have you seen "Atlas Shrugged Part 1"? The opening scene is the year 2016, DOW under 4,000, Depression, and gas at $37.50 a gallon.

The movie was a silent release, short lived... But boy oh boy if the movie is the message from a visual cue to put a modern twist on an old book it sure leads on to ponder.

Especially since I subscribe to this theory to some degree that the movie is the message also. I was waiting for something like the "Adjustment Bureau" to come out for a long time and I don't happen to think all of the Sci-Fi blockbusters are completely made up. I think they are taken from some of the ancient texts from India and South East Asia where the whole notion of life here beginning out there is a staple I the religion.

But the DOW being below 4K was in another movie recently besides Atlas Shrugged Part 1, but I can't think of the name of it right now.

Oh and I wrote to you last year when I had broke even. Well I went and got all positive again and the individual stocks I picked have handed me my ass and I am back to being in the hole massively.

I don't agree with everything on the website www.senseoncents.com  but he had a small write up a little while ago about how more and more people are deciding to not play ball and leave the market all together. And for once... I am finally feeling that way. I mean hell, the whole market can't be up because of tablets and Smartphone's. That's just plain old' silliness and those who really manufacture things are whipsawed all over the place (DE, CAT, F, GM, etc.) including the material stocks who provide the raw ingredients (FCX, CLF, Etc.).

This all smells of total bullshit AGAIN even though we are over 13K in the DOW and 1400 on the S&P. When Doug Kass is starting to say the road ahead is up I really start to wonder.

So pissed at myself right now for being positive and getting whacked hard. FCX, DECK, CY, and CLF come to mid of recent pain.

Thanks for all your work."

About here, I will roll out the whole (ugly) truth of how lifestyle "feels" to us average 'Mericans right now:  Take the ratio of the S&P by the M2 money supply and this is what the BOHICA feels like, despite all the crap otherwished by DC'ites:

This chart says it all:  Shows you how since the "Roaring Twenties" analog (1998 minicrash to the 2000 market highs) America is replaying the Great Depression but with sand in our eyes, manufactured and thrown by people we (quite mistakenly) trusted to do the right thing.

They haven't, so our debt load is unsustainable, and the global outcome is now inevitable, sorry, it's just not apparent to most folks. 

I'm sure if you'd asked the average Roman about the collapse of Rome at the time they wouldn't have be able to articulate it, either. 

The Future "Road to Riches"

Elaine and I aren't ready to move into buying up a string of rental houses yet, but when we get further down the flush (when the market is down to the Dow 4,400 area (or lower, perhaps Dow 780 in 2015/2016 or in there) it will be the best time every to buy rental properties.  Already, you can find deals where a home can be picked up from banksters who don't manage homes any better than they do risk or bonuses, cheap enough to cash flow neutral from the get-go.

A reader noted a while back:

"You are totally correct that owning rental housing is the best way to get rich. In my 43 plus years in this business I have literally seen hundreds of people do it. However, I have seen hundreds fail at it, including myself. Like most endeavors it takes a particular set of manual and, more importantly, dealing with renter skills. The latter which I apparently lack. The best two days of my life were when I got rid of my last rental and my ex-wife."

That chart above may come down even lower than it was in the 1980's - and if it does, that might be a reasonable time for young people to get into housing again.  It's the advice I'm giving my kids:  Be saving up for a down payment now.

Fad Watch

Then there's this reader question:

"morning George. How will facebook make money? Do people actually click on these ads they see in any meaningful amounts? Who are these people and can they be counted on to continue clicking on ads.

I mean I dont get it. Back in the day this thing called google came about. I was like how can that make money who would invest in that. well I wonder an I wrong again with this facebook deal.

with face book I dont care if the sun is shining and the birds are chirping or what sally wore for work or what jim found while walking down the street. I dont care.

Who clicks on these damed ads I dont get it.

im saying fb is a fad and wil be gone in a short time. ofc I wrong about google"

I've been asking myself that, too.  On the ad response question, serious marketing gurus (like the guy I shave in the morning) plan on 1/2 to 1.2% click-throughs, so yes, lots of people click.  Big money - BIG.

But the strategic question is this:  Is the whole social networking "thing" a fad?  We you old enough to remember the CD Radio craze?  Go here and click down to " Web = CB Radio:  It's just a recipe" for details. 

That's what I'm better on in the long term.  All I figure I have to do is plot the ascension of FB and other socials and then lay in long-term shorts and count the money.  All fads and manias run their course.  You don't have to be a genius picking out the up and comers.  All you need to do is spot the biggies and then short 'em on the way down. 

Yeah, simple, huh?  But who was warning you (and everyone else I know) about the dangers of the housing bubble from 2002 when people looked at me like I had two heads?  No one wants to think a fad is over - people fall in love with positions - and it's as true with gold, housing, or the Iraqi Dinar scam.  It's how the  Ponzi's and the Madoff's of the world constant come and go.

Of course you know all that, but what we don't know is what WuJo reports we'll have tomorrow or what the CPI fairytale will be, so see you for more coffee, fun, sport, and amusement tomorrow!

As one reader noted about our reports (while noting that as the People's Economist this might apply to me...):

"An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today."

And with six-sigma confidence, at that.