Replaying 1929: Business, Financial, and earth change news

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Time Monks: A Quake Warning

With the volcano(es) blowing up 800 miles south of Santiago Chile today, causing ash and problems in next-door Argentina,  plus the earthquake earlier this week centered about 100-miles east of Tokyo, our friends in predictive linguistics are concerned about short-term data values going to the idea that 'more quakes may be coming'.  They offered this advice in a rare between-reports update sent to their subscribers yesterday:

"Well, probably a very good time to go lash down everything moveable, and really examine your surroundings for what could shake loose if shakes started. Further, remember that in environments which you cannot control such as offices, look for triangular shaped voids which will be created when ceilings fall in on such things as FILLED file cabinets, and bookcases. Also note all exits, and be aware that stuff falls, and humans habitually do *NOT* look up... might be a good time to practice, eh? Oh, and a personal at- work/travel earthquake kit will have water in a stainless steel container, some quick energy calories, a small flashlight, and such medicines or other necessities to see you through 36/thirty-six hours. Needs to be small, and quickly reached."

Not that these are things that a careful person wouldn't already be doing, but they are looking at how the earthquake and volcano are related to each other on the globe.

 

The Tokyo quake was about 35 N/141 E  while Chile was going off around 45S by 72W.

 

Curiously, a mainstream reference that caught our eye on the MarketWatch site on Wednesday which hits on another linguistic meme we've been tracking for some time; the idea of a 'global coastal event'.  The MarketWatch headline reads: "Gathering Storm: The threat to coastal communities, including in the U.S., is growing."

 

In modelspace, I'm told that the GCE is not likely until late winter / early spring of 2009 and that the Myanmar event was not the global event because its effects, while horrific, were localized. 

 

Nevertheless, there's enough coming in around earthquake language that if Elaine and I lived in either Nevada, California, or the Midwest around the New Madrid areas, we'd be making sure, just on the outside chance of something.  And the Pacific Northwest in particular.

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Now a short detour into the weird. Want a highly speculative piece of the puzzle?  This is way 'out there' stuff,  but it struck me as damned peculiar and maybe relating to pending events, so here goes:  Some dots to connect:

 

What happened up north of Houston this week?  A huge sink hole opened up in Daisetta Texas.  Apparently, this has something to do with oil drilling in the area.

 

Not that sink holes are that rare.  Smaller ones pop up all overs the place.  Take Prescott, Arizona, or the sink hole that blocked traffic on I-70 in Frederick, Maryland a couple of weeks back.

 

But what makes the Texas sink hole an attention-grabber is that just two weeks before the sink hole developed, there was a UFO sighting reported over Baytown, Texas, barely 30-miles from where this week's Texas sinkhole developed.

 

I don't know about you, but this is a little close to be passed off as entirely 'coincidental'.  Especially when we have (purely anecdotal) reports that UFO activity increased in Southeast Asia prior to the 2004 tsunami, and appear more often ahead of other major events.

 

A person could speculate all day about this stuff Are the UFO's trans-dimensional/outside of [our] time tourist doing before and after picture taking?  What were they doing over Baytown two weeks and 30 miles away from this week's big sink hole 

 

What about the UFO sightings in the Stephenville, Texas area --  Do they mean something, or are they portents?  While the local press reports that "Unidentified Flying Objects not new to North Texas,"  I can't help but wonder if the risk of some large 'natural disaster pending" won't have a link of some kind to Texas as well as the obvious hot spots like the PNW, New Madrid quake region, Nevada, and California. 

 

Crawford is just 65 miles from the Stephenville Lights sightings and the president's daughter Jenna Bush is getting married there tomorrow. 

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Another tidbit to ponder with the Jenna wedding at hand:  We've had many references to "wedding interrupted" by an earthquake in modelspace.  But, is this the wedding weekend and does that mean a BIG QUAKE tomorrow?

 

With exclusive permission, here's a snip from the current HalfPastHuman Asymmetric Language Trend Analysis (link to www.urbansurvival.com  and www.halfpasthuman.com required):

"Within the Terra entity, the [wedding] sub set continues to grow its association with the [female personality]. The [wedding] of the [sister/female relative] is now associated with the [east coast] of the USofA, and further is indicated to be [interrupted] by [earthquakes]. We note that the [earthquakes] are *not* at the location of the [wedding], but are such that the [guests] will be [involved] with the [earthquake recovery], and are described as [spilling out] of the [wedding location] like [ants] out of a [fiery nest]. It will apparently be this image which will bring our first global mediastream images of the [female personality] as she will be in the background as a [wedding guest]. The data sets are pointing toward this [earthquake] as being the [first of parts] of the [natural disaster] which will be in place here in the USofA by the end of the year. The data is suggesting that a [combination/union/joining] of manifesting circumstances which are shown as being spread over the year will combine to form the basis of the [calamitous circumstances] for the [populace/USofA] by/through Fall. We have some preponderance of data sets pointing toward the [offshore] of the [northern west coast] of the USofA as being a [triangulated point] for the location of the [earthquake]. The [earthquake] is described as being a [lifting event], and [inducing (rolling) waves] which further are described as [altering hills] and [breaking dams] as the [waves] course [toward/to the east]. Further data suggests that the [earthquake] will cause [flooding] both immediately, and later in the Fall as the [aquifers] and [drainage patterns] of the lands have been altered. In addition, the [flooding] aspect/attribute set applies to the [earthquake] in that it appears as a [flood of earthquakes] rather than merely a single event. The data suggests so many [tremors] that it will be [academic] as to which to pick for the [earthquake] and which to pick as [aftershocks].

Hopefully, the model will be wrong.  But there's little cost associated with battening things down.  Hopefully, this read of the future will be wrong.  But, the linguistics have been correct often enough in the past that a mention and some bottled water seems warranted the day before a possible hot date.

 

Worse than Tsunami?

The Burma (Myanmar) death toll estimates keep climbing. Highest figure so far is 500,000 being mentioned.

 

Screaming Oil

Over $125 a barrel now.  Is the $200 spike an illusion, self-fulfilling prophesy, or supply and demand working themselves out?

 

Bucks for Buffett?

The headline "Stocks head for lower open after AIG reveals need for cash" could be important.  I wonder how some of the insurance companies would deal with a massive earthquake, or some other calamitous loss given the current market conditions?

 

BOT Improves

OK, so we're still going into debt by $58.2 billion in the latest reporting month but that is an improvement however slight.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total March exports of $148.5 billion and imports of $206.7 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $58.2 billion, down from $61.7 billion in February, revised. March exports were $2.6 billion less than February exports of $151.1 billion. March imports were $6.1 billion less than February imports of $212.8 billion.

In March, the goods deficit decreased $3.5 billion from February to $68.6 billion, and the services surplus was virtually unchanged at $10.4 billion. Exports of goods decreased $2.5 billion to $104.7 billion, and imports of goods decreased $6.0 billion to $173.3 billion. Exports of services were virtually unchanged at $43.8 billion, and imports of services decreased $0.1 billion to $33.4 billion.

In March, the goods and services deficit decreased $4.8 billion from March 2007. Exports were up $20.0 billion, or 15.5 percent, and imports were up $15.1 billion, or 7.9 percent.

Circular Paper Department

The president this week signed H.R. 5715.  One analysis I've seen says that this will empower the US Department of Education to buy up bundled student loans that lenders can't find other buyers for.  So, government is buying yet more paper...and that will support inflation in the higher ed sector where independent undergrads will be able to borrow and grant  up to $57,500 per award year's worth.

 

Curious Intelligence

Remember back when all those cables in the Middle East were being cut and there was speculation that it would be a precursor to an attack on Iran.  I don't like to go back too far in news stories, but I think this is an important "after action note".  According to a report, Egypt now says "No ships present when internet cable cut."

 

Somewhere, in the back of my mind, there's a half-formed thought that those cable breaks were not all 'coincidental' and they might be part of some kind of back-channel message to that part of the world that would go something like: "If you think you can screw with the West's PTB, remember that we can put you in the stone age electronically just as you might be able to put us there by cutting off oil..."

 

West Beirut Seized

Hezbollah claims it had made a major advance in Lebanon, as things continue to heat up.

 

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Coping:  MainStreamMedia Control

Several readers have commented on the introduction of a new Net Neutrality bill in Washington as getting more/better coverage out of Europe than in stateside press.  Gee, gosh, how unsurprising is that?  This, boys and girls, is where Uncle George tells you the Three Conglomerates and their Goldilocks on the net...and how without corporate preference at a price, sites like this one will keep the candles of Freedom burning by encouraging people to assume nothing, question everything, and make counter-accusations.

 

Cost of Food

Keep an eye on this one:

"On May 1, 2007, the milk-feed price ratio was 2.67. What that means is that one dollar of feed was necessary to produce $2.67 of milk paid to the dairyman.

This week, dairy farmers got even worse news. The new milk-feed ratio is less than two dollars. As of Wednesday, May 7, 2008, it's 1.90."

Cost of Fencing

Going up - quickly says a reader:

"Checked with local farm store owner (Buhl, Idaho). This week price of those 4x16 fencing panels jumped from $16.99 (on sale) to $24.99 (new stock). Buy your fencing, shovels, axes, bars, roofing...now!!!! "

How to Fix The Economy

In one easy lesson suggested by a reader:

"Jobs created in SimCity and Grand Theft Auto now to be reflected in government employment data."

Reader Note

I appreciate getting lots of 'news tips' (link elsewhere on this page), but I'd sure appreciate it if when you send in a link you look at the data on the story.  Just as a for instance, someone send in a story about how "Wyoming sheriffs put feds in their place".  The person thought it was something we should be aware of.  Well, yes, we have been - and for more than a year!  So please, when you send in tips, please try to remember to look at the dateline because we're riding the wave around hear - the one that's building, not the last one ashore.  Thanks.

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Send snip and save notes to george@ure.net

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Peoplenomics.com    Accidental Extinction?

This week I'm going to place a number of major "dots" before you, suggest a possible meaning of the dots -- namely that an extinction level event is pending in a couple of year -- and then propose that we all just go on as though everything is dandy and everything will work out right in the end because lining dots up in just a certain way is no guarantee that it's how the future will really work out when it gets here. Instead, it's only one wildly speculative version of how the future could work out. As the time monks are prone to reminding me "George, if you can imagine it, that about assures us that your particular version of the future won't show up." After a preview discussion of this week's content, they suggested I send out sample sized bottles of Imodium AD in advance for readers of weak constitution, but I'll leave such frivolities to Big Budget Newsletters, although a shot of Jack at the end of this report might be comforting. Forewarned is forearmed - so to the dots!

 

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Better Living on Less Dough

There are lots of ways to save money on food, shelter, transportation, and such.  It just takes a little reading and one source of good ideas is  our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less.  Still just $10.

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Last week's report is here.    For back issues of this site, click here.  (Goes back to 1997!)

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I promised Elaine that I would unload some of my equipment, so if you're looking for ham gear, especially the older tube-type (EMP resistant) type, send me a note and I will send out the list of what I'm selling off when I get it together.    Click here to  Put Me On Ham Gear List

 

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Thursday May 8, 2008

Bummer Summary: It Really Is Worse

It's one thing for a lone nutjob in the woods of East Texas to tell you that the economy is worse than is reported by the MainStreamMedia.  So how do you handle it when MSM starts to headline "Hard numbers: The economy is worse than you know"?  How about "Don't make me think..." or "Pour me a shot, would yah?"

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We're sad to see the City of Vallejo is declaring bankruptcy.  Not that many others won't too, as the melt continues, although officially we're not in a recession.

 

Oh, and Tennessee is trying to buy 2000 workers out of their jobs. 

 

Recession?  I don't see a recession, do you?

 

Layoff notices going out to township workers in New Jersey.  Teachers in California.  Lane County Oregon workers.   Atlanta is talking about layoffs. Will HP layoff 400 in Oregon?

 

Still, this doesn't add up to a recession according to Council of Economics Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear who insists there's no recession in sight.  I wonder who does the grocery shopping in his family?

 

Nope, no recession....

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Tomorrow we get the balance of trade numbers. but don't hold your breath.  The world in the same position as before the past six months of financial crisis erupted.  It will probably stay that way until the end of June, giving the aware investor a chance to get gold and other items on the cheap with depreciating paper assets.

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With countries in the Middle East talking about dumping the Buck, where's the money to buy our lifeblood going to come from?  "Oil price holds near record highs" say the headlines, but with talk of a $200 spike sooner than later, we ain't seen nothing yet. 

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Next week the inflation numbers will come out, but don't be misled by these.  First, they are massaged using hedonics (e.g. chopped sirloin is about like a sirloin steak, right?) but worse, the numbers are a retrospective.  The numbers you should be worried about are the prices to come, not the prices that we a month or two back.

 

With the price of oil maybe heading for a spike, consider that $100 oil means $4.00 gas, so putting on our thinking caps, we come up with a $200 spike meaning AT LEAST $8 gas, and maybe $10.  And that's nothing:  Elaine's son who drives a delivery truck in Seattle called us last night to report that his fill-up was $100 for 22 gallons.

 

Wait till the price of all goods reflects the doubling of the transportation costs!

 

US News & World Report is asking "Can the Economy Survive $200-a-barrel Oil?"  The answer is "Of course..."  But our 'fine print" reads: "Of course you may not be able to afford food, you may not be able to go anywhere with a $12 gas spike, the electricity will be in rolling brownouts/blackouts, and there will be a shortage of everything needed for living...but yes, there will be an economy of some kind.  Taxes have to be collected..."

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Once again, almost like they are holding up the sign that says "Bomb Here", the Iranian oil minister says "Oil could soon his $200 a barrel."  Off in the background, Russia has signed on for sanctions on Iran.  Maybe because Russia is worried about fallout?

 

But wait, the Bush administration is pushing to get a civilian nuclear deal done with Russia which would make someone beaucoup bunks.  You're welcome Vlad...

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Oh, and just to complete the morning's bummer-summary: Wal-Mart says more shoppers are living paycheck to paycheck.

 

George's Bet: Fed's Going to Pass

Speaking of beholden to the golden, I notice the Bank of England has held rates steady.  That shades my bet to the Fed taking a pass at its next meeting.  Of course, this is just too damn simple, so expect endlessly mind-numbing chatter from the money honeys and their guests speculating this way and that.  Don't even go there with phrases like "As goes the Crown's, so goes the clowns..."  That'd be disrespectful.  And we're always respectful  of the elitists in charge.

 

Elitists...hmmm...what does that bring to mind?  Oh yes....

 

The Runs:  My Clinton VP Bet Stands

Some headlines are catching up to where we were yesterday:  Hillary Clinton is maneuvering for a VP slot.  If voters are dumb enough to make it 32-years with a Bush or Clinton in the White House at #1 or #2,   we have no business electing our own leadership. 

Corporations and the build-a-burger types (if you know what I mean) could save the lobbyist money and the voting machine hacks, and just announce who the next Anointed One is.  Of course, then the lack of content on the television would become obvious, so there is some bread and circuses angle to it all.

 

Last time I check, however, corp gov and the PTB are not royalty and this Great Nation wasn't supposed to be a Clinton/Bush oligarchy. 

 

Or is it?  With so many knighthoods handed out, maybe I ought to rethink that.  Of course the sitting George hasn't been knighted - yet - but Poppy was, and so was Alan Greenspan -- while serving as Fed chair!  Hmmm...OK, it is an oligarchy, then.... Which puts us on par with who?

 

Zimbabwe Meltdown

OK, Robert Mugabe didn't like the election outcome.  And the critics want new elections.  But now the country has become too violent for a poll say some.  This being the time of revolution and rebellion memes, let me guess...hmmm... what do you think comes next?

 

Terra Trembles

OK, so we have a couple of volcanoes going off in Chile and we had a 6.7-6.8 earthquake near Tokyo on Wednesday (US time).  Headlines, but wait till Q4 in the US...  Small earthquake in Iran, too.

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The UN says the Myanmar cyclone is a 'major, major disaster".  No, no kidding, kidding.

 

Am I Missing Something?

The headline "Saliva HIV test gives results in minutes" has me wondering about what's the new there?  OraSure Technologies has had an oral HIV test with 20-minute results on the market for four years now. My EMT son has been administering them for almost four years now, too.

 

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Coping:  Customer Loyalty & Branding Notes

As the number of humans in the world keeps growing, thanks to the tendency of people once fed to procreate at mind-numbing/ uncontrolled rates once fed, the way food is marketed in the world is bound to change.  We're going to run out at some point.

 

Wednesday, Elaine went into town and came back swearing to do virtually all of her grocery shopping at the Brookshire Brothers food store in Palestine.  You might ask "Why?"

 

The answer is pretty simple: They seem to have a responsible (e.g. grown -up) way of handling food.  While some stores are busy with specials, like get x-zillion pounds of this for that, Brookshire's seems more focused on the quality of the products than the run of the mill.  They do specials, like everyone else, don't get me wrong.  But it's how they relate to customers that matters.

 

To be sure, E is a bit spoiled: She was a QFC and PCC kind of shopper when we were in the Northwest, a Trader Joe's junkie in the Bay area and San Diego, and then a Whole Foods shopper in Boca Raton.  So you can see the pattern.  Quality and variety, organic and recycling really does make a difference to us.

 

But, what finally got E to nearly swear-off the other stores in town was the fact that Brookshire's is now selling recyclable shopping bags and actually encouraging people to use them.  The store help is all well briefed on the subject, too.  Elaine was informed that conventional plastic grocery bags would likely be history in just a few short years because of what they are doing to the environment.

 

Brookshire's is not the first.  I think the most 'hip' of all the stores and perhaps one of the few to jump from serving Hippies 1.0 to serving Hippies 2.0 customers like us was the Puget Sound Consumer Coop which has been selling great canvas grocery bags forever.

 

Beyond the grocery bags, though, Elaine found a little time to spend a few minutes to watch part of a video in the Brookshire's produce department of  some famous chef explaining about preparing high quality organic food.  Quality ingredients, portion control, balanced nutrition - all served up where she could do something about it right on the spot.

 

"I came back feeling inspired to cook again," she explained as I munched into a chicken with gourmet stuffing dish that magically appeared 45-minutes after she got home.

 

"Of yeah, well, keep shopping there," I encouraged in mid slurp.

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Elaine's description of her "branding" experience continued: "I looked around and they just have a lot more variety of most things - especially cereals and vegetables.  The only thing they don't have more of is ice cream and frozen pizzas..." 

 

She then held forth her new theory that there's a clue to the quality of a store  to be figured by taking the number of junk/fast food items  (add up the ice cream and frozen pizza items)  on the shelves, decided by the total number of items in the store.  Too much work for me, but I got the gist of it.

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While she was out shopping, I was spending 2-hours on the phone with Act! software's tech support department.  My emailing project to a handful of customers of a consulting client had hit the rocks - not that a small emailing to a group of customers for a survey hadn't worked, it just hadn't worked right.

 

Act!'s folks went through a connection with my computer, checking this and that, and then concluded that Act! 2007 would not work with my latest and greatest Outlook 2007 version and I would need to upgrade to Act! 2008 to make sure the software did what it was supposed to.  (If you're an IT geek, the Act! 2007 program doesn't allow setting the email port nu