Working Sideways, Rally to Come

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Although it is not a hard-and-fast rule, there is oftentimes something of an upward bias to markets in the period leading into major holidays.

So, with the Fourth Of July three or four day weekend just ahead, it’s no wonder that I find myself somewhat long the market, waiting for the Big Move to the blow-off highs of July/August we’ve been predicting to show up.

There is some sense that the market is climbing a wall or worry, the more realistic outlook is that it’s climbing a “wall of cash…”

(Continues below)

 

What is meant by this is simple.  There are two factors which are driving the market onward and upward in our view:  The Federal Reserve slopping cash on the market the same as you’d slop strawberry jam on  a PB&J sandwich.  It’s hard to put on too much jam, or for that matter, too much cash.

Still, we will see how the “monetary sandwich” is coming when the weekly Federal Reserve H.6 Money Stocks measure comes out this afternoon.  Short of a revelation about testing ANS brakes on money-creation, the paper-hangers are one reason for the upward mobility of this pig.

The other reason is a little more subtle, but not much.  We are almost to the end of a quarter – June 30th – and for the unfortunates of finance whose compensation depends on hitting performance benchmarks on a quarterly basis, this will be when a higher market will – for some – mean higher paychecks.

And if there are pension funds still putting in money on a quarterly basis, rather than monthly (or on-the-fly) that would help goose things in coming weeks, as well.

Now a lot of people may be under the mistaken impression that the market sold off yesterday.  And while that’s true – if you look at the singular Dow Jones Industrial Average – when you look a bit more deeply on an aggregate basis – which is our stock & trade – the market actually went up yesterday.

The rise yesterday was due mainly to the fact that the NASDAQ increased more than the Dow went down.

Whether our latest hare-brained trade will work out remains to be seen, but 9-1/2 trades into the year, we don’t have any complaints.

For now, the futures are about flat.  The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing number about 10 AM Central may be of interest, though I expect it to firm which may move the market up a bit…but mainly this is a slow week.  Holiday is still more than a week off, there is only minor news next week,

Even the week after will be a bit dry.  That’s because the June Employment Report won’t be out until Friday the 7th which we’re sure suits the party-goers to the Hamptons just fine.

I will try to wake up from my morning nap around 10 to see that KC Fed number, but this is one of those “dog days of summer*” when I’ve lightened up on the coffee early so as to not have the kidneys interrupt nappy-time.

[Literary Critic Note:  Although various computations of the dog days have placed their start (and it’s a Sirius matter) anywhere from 3 July to 15 August and lasting for anywhere from 30 to 61 days, we beg to differ.  Around here, we use damn near any trite phrase handy in our feeble efforts to make the droll business of market-watching seem interesting.  Most times it’s not.  So we beg your forgiveness for such literary trespass.]

Tropical Sprinkler Cindy

While our friends in the mountain country of Arizona suffer through another day of heat warnings, and people down in the Valley of the Sun are thinking of renaming the Phoenix metro area The Surface of the Sun, our house guest Cindy will be dropping by the neighborhood shortly.

As of this morning, it looks like we will get two inches of rain and we will be unseasonably cool for another week, or longer.  Won’t see 90 until a week from tomorrow at the earliest.

The rain, however, is a mixed blessing.  If you happen to run  beef cows this is like money falling from the sky.  A four-cutting (of hay) year is a marvelous thing agriculturally.  It’s also dandy if you sell power equipment parts.  Because people like me will be mowing longer and more frequently than usual and that’s always good for business.  Parts in particular, since every so-often a fence post will jump out and hit the mower deck.

Not to be fooled, I’m going to the eye doc next week.

We now return you to the asylum.

Drudge and Putin?

About the dumbest headline I’ve seen in a long while: “FEC Dem eyes widening Russia probe to Facebook, Drudge, foreign companies.”

Since America doesn’t seem to have anything else to do, the Trump-bashing by the snowflakes, the looney left, and the uninformed voters does remind us of one bit Reality often overlooked:

The Trump-bashing is largely a product of Desperation Media which – which has been featuring such late-breaking news as a certain television host farting in 2010.

This is “sticky content” (if you’ll pardon the word choice) for the low information voters.  The rest of us have lives and don’t sign petitions orchestrated by the Obama government in exile, Soros Inc. or whoever is paying the lefties under the table.

You do know what GTFU means, right?  (Hint)

More Is Less

We’re not the only ones on point: “Michael Moore: Dems have ‘no message, no plan, no leaders’.”

But then we hold these truths to be self-evident.

Pelosi’s Product Pull Date

House loser Nancy Pelosi is running out of time.

But she’s really had a pretty good run.  Says here since 1989 she has raised something like $22.6-million for her various campaigns, spending $20.9 million.  That’s on top of $560 raised for louse house democrats.

When you dig into her past support you’ll see a lot of healthcare, lawyers, and union support.  All yesterday’s news.  Healthcare is a financial nightmare – and going up 25% next year on top of this year’s load, lawyers are facing the prospect of swamp drains, and unions?  Hell, with the exception of Letter Carriers and UPS drivers, who’s left?

Spinning Anti-Trump

The NY Times piece is headlined “:Trump turns Iowa Rally into a Venting Session.”

Makes it sound bad, but a more honest headline might have been “Trump talks straight with the Base…:  Which is still refreshing in flyover country.

They focused on the Left’s immigration hot-button instead saying Trump was crafting legislation to bar new immigrants from receiving welfare for at least five years.

Here’s a revolutionary thought:  Since most of American have roots going back generations how about under the Equal Protection clause we all file for back welfare not paid our families in the 1800’s?  With interest, too…. I’m mean equality is equality, is it not?  Why should new arrivals today get the free ride our ancestors did not?

Oh, whoops.  Forgot myself.  Equality isn’t equal…just keep repeating that.

Love to see hear the government-in-exile spins this one…and sadly we probably will.  The media-left will make sure of that…

Speaking of Which: Losers

CNN rolling with “Trump: ‘I just don’t want a poor person’ in Cabinet.”

What the CNN reporter apparently missed is this thing called pro sports.

The way that works is pretty simple:  If you want to win a Super Bowl, you get the best athletes you can find.  They’re expensive but they win.

Same thing is (or ought) to be true in government.  If you want success, bring in winner.  If you want political correctness, and are willing to flush American down the financial crapper to get there, then sure, staff up with losers.

No Super Bowl rings in that approach, but Reality’s a bitch.

We are SOOO Screwed

World population to hit 9.8 billion by 2050, despite nearly universal lower fertility rates – UN.

15 thoughts on “Working Sideways, Rally to Come”

  1. Mr. Ure,
    There are so many things you could comment on, but I was wondering if you could share your thoughts on the recent collision with USS Fitzgerald?

    AMTV has a less than 8 minute video “What they’re not telling you about the USS Fitzgerald” by Chad Boukzam. There are many suspicious circumstances revealed; the largest being how can a US warship carrying cruise missiles not “see” a merchant ship about it’s own size coming.

    One thing I picked up on is the Navy said they were searching for seven “missing” sailors. Everyone on that ship knew where those sailors were. When their compartment was penetrated the Captain ordered the hatch sealed to save the ship.

    Fredrick Kohler

    • Sorry, this was on the Peoplenomics sight.
      The extreme short version is the destroyer was hit on the right/starboard side.
      The destroyer was the give way (burdened) vessel, the container ship was the stand on vessel to whom the destroyer had to give way
      Except they didn’t
      We would not go long the captain’s career if this was an investment decision. Or the office of the watch or the ExO

      • If you want a good conspiracy theory, consider that the Fitzgerald was in stealth mode, able to project its radar signature to where it really isn’t and that this fact is classified. We know the movements of the freighter were erratic. With today’s technology, I don’t think physical visibility means much these days. If somebody really was on watch, reported a ship that was not visible on radar, as captain what would you do? Or, if you had a radar image and the watch reported no ship was there? Perhaps somebody on the Fitzgerald was screwing with the freighter.

  2. RE: fertility rates

    I was fortunate enough in tenth grade (1962) to have one of the top biology teachers in country for that subject. She was part of a team writing a new text book, and we were beta testing.

    One reported test hit me so hard that I never forgot it. It was a closed society test using rodents. A small colony of mice were put into a large, cage in which the keepers put the same amount of food and water every day.

    At the beginning, the amount of food and water was a few times more than needed by the colony and the mice reproduced like crazy. There came a point when the population outgrew the available resources and the mice turned on each other with ferocity, even going so far as cannibalism. Disease also took a heavy toll until the population dropped to nearly its original numbers.

    The keepers cleaned up the cage and the process started all over again. The conclusion was that the same was destined to happen to humans since Earth is our ‘cage’. I am glad I won’t be here when the ‘cleansing’ goes down.

    • I totally agree with the concept of the periodic dieback. I’d expect 80-90% of the human population. I don’t particularly want it, but I see it as inevitable, and yes, I do have some serious studies in biology. It’s easier to see with microbiology and watching bacteria replicate in a closed system. I do think we may well be around or such things, and it’s well to live accordingly. Enjoy life, be kind, sleep well and trust the process. Do that which matters to you while you’re graced to be alive.

      • Keep in mind that the dieback comes from exceeding available resources. Only the nations whose demand exceeds its resources will experience the dieback.

        Ecuador is a net exporter of food and oil, and soon to be exporter of electricity. The USA has at least a $500 billion negative trade balance, including being a net importer of food. Remove arms sales and export of financial instruments like derivatives etc. And that number could easily double.

        Living in a country with 5% of the worlds population but consuming half the worlds resources is something most Americans are not aware of. When I ask Americans where they think this is going 5 years from now, they give me the rear view mirror answer. But America’s future is either a massive die off or a mass movement into what most Americans consider abject poverty.

        The boomer prayer, “Oh lord, let this sh*thouse stay together until after I die!”

    • Was that the John B. Calhoun Mouse Utopia experiment? I’ve watched that several times and he performed several like this. The problem was when they took “the beautiful ones” out and put them in another population of fewer mice that had not experienced overpopulation they still did not rehabilitate but remained in their regressive habits. They’d been too psychologically damaged.

      Seeing these videos makes me think we reached our plateau in the late 60s, psychologically. Like George has opined in his postings the current thinking of the previous administration was that the only way to kick-start our national growth economically and socially is to replace the original population with a new influx of outsiders. Unfortunately they don’t automatically come with an understanding of what being an American is as did previous generations.

  3. Thanks for the link regarding farting on air. I now know how the infamous and forgettable Megyn Kelly got her claim to fame.

    I’m surprised the FCC never investigated the matter.

  4. I’m not sure of your question: We live in the Second biggest GDP in America here in Texas as we would pass California if energy prices were more realistic.

    Maybe you are insecure and need your 239 people per square mile. We find 96.3 to be far less dense.

    But there’s a lesson in the numbers here: California is DENSE. Texas, less so.

    Least dense of all are people from Alaska, the Dakotas, Vermont, Montana and such-wise. In these areas, people get to think for themselves. Not join the local mob or speak another language to live.

    You decision to live in the barrel of financial roulette says you are willing to take chances and live in financially unsustainable conditions (https://www.mercatus.org/statefiscalrankings ) but to each their own.

  5. I digress from the topic of the day but I need your help from readership as I believe very intelligent workers visit here frequently. Have viewed on wall a digitally scanned copy&cut of the TOMB OF THE UNKNOWN SOLDIER for almost 20 yrs. and cannot make sense of it. Unable to up-load pic(maybe someone else can). Roman Characters displayed are Justice in the middle between Peace to her right clutching a dove and Valor to her left brandishing a broken sword. Justice is stepping on the foot of Peace??

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