Wolf Moon Monday: Markets Tremble, Raising Sons

You ready, Lupus

No, not the disease.  We’re talking the Latin word for “wolf” because according to the Clan of the Cave George Tribe’s neolithic Tree Hedge out back, tonight is the Wolf Moon.  (First full Moon of the year.)

As always, we are guided by the two-bit A.I. as to how Wolves, bulls, and bears might “mix it up:”

“Wolves are more likely to attack cattle than bears, but the outcome of interactions between the two species depends on a number of factors:
Prey
Wolves are opportunistic hunters that prefer natural prey like deer and elk, but they may also prey on domestic animals like cattle. Young or newborn calves are especially vulnerable.
Number of animals
The number of wolves and bears involved in an interaction can affect the outcome.
Age, sex, and size
The age, sex, and size of the animals in each species can affect the outcome.

That’s not an especially insightful view (for the market today) except to mention the bulls and bears will be operating under the astrological influence of Moon.  And Full Moons do make people crazy.

Science Direct article (2006) citing work of Yuan, Zheng, and Zhu says that yes, indeed:

“Stock returns are, on average, 4 bps lower daily (about 5% annually) for the 15 days around the full moon than for the 15 days around the new moon. Using a 7-day window, stock returns are, on average 6 bps lower daily (about 4% annually) on the full moon days than on the new moon days.”

And so with the Full Moon, high volatility may be anticipated.  Or not. (Remember, we don’t do advice.  More like a market gadfly infestation.

From the Smote Dept.

On our Peoplenomics.com subscriber site, we crank out well over a dozen charts, twice a week, that look at markets from our (slightly teched) perspective.  Which are based on several economic notions not widely appreciated, yet we hold as dramatically impacting market outcomes.  To wit:

  • Aggregated Markets:  Which is based on the notion that there is “only so much money in the World” as any given time.
  • Computational disintermediation:  E.G. computer-based trading transforming traditional patterns due to the reduction in the use of intermediaries between producers and consumers, for example by investing directly in the securities market rather than through a bank.
  • Ebbinghaus effects.  Which we will explain in more detail in our report a week from Wednesday.

There is, of course, also our 85-DMA (day moving average) which the market closed under on Friday.  And today, we are set to continue down until (perhaps) Retail Sales (Wednesday’s data coming up) may help staunch. And, ideally, fuel a rally from “lower than here” to back over the 85-DMA (Aggregate) from here.  Following?

If you don’t have the “chart translation plug-in” installed in your cerebral cortex (of the occipital lobe, if you’re looking) the outlook based on early Futures pricing looks like the Wolf will begin with a big bite of Bull the open:

If you look closely, notice the 85-day trend line (red – there on the far right).  Historically, long-term major market directional changes tend to “gel” around this point which is adjacent (overhead) to the 50-DMA and (below) by the 200-DMA.

It tends toward being a Bounce or Bust axis.

Not only does “market fear” kick in (generally) in this vicinity (which can spur additional selling) but we are confronted today with two (more subtle Ebbinghaus-related) “breaking of Index whole/round numbers.

Thus, expect dynamic tension to grow as the S&P breaks below the “even” 5,800 level, and the techs bust under 19,000. Fear (and loathing in Los Angeles) is likely to drive lower.  Why, even A.I. is hip to this:

“”Fear and Loathing in Los Angeles” is a phrase often used to describe a chaotic and extreme experience within the city of Los Angeles, drawing inspiration from the title of Hunter S. Thompson’s famous book “Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas,” depicting a drug-fueled, wild journey through Las Vegas; essentially implying a similar sense of excess and disorientation happening in Los Angeles.”

Pre-fires, of course. But now on Jet A.

Different manners of “seeing Future” are, of course, in play beyond some of these simple psychologically-anchored concepts.  There’s an Andy view, a G.A. Stewart view, a Clif view, and a Farsight approach.

Regardless, the weekend here was spent in contemplation of “What next?”  As a colleague raised a dandy question:  “Has enough material burned in the L.A. fires to life enough weight off the San Andreas to get ground moving?”

I reminded him of the insufficiency of data on this point, instead pointing him at SoCal precip levels which are (albiet loosely) associated with earth movements (ne quakes).  I sent him this short ChatGPT summary:

“While heavy rainfall in Southern California can influence seismic activity, it is typically a secondary factor. The primary driver of earthquakes in the region remains the movement of the Pacific and North American tectonic plates. However, under specific conditions, rainfall-induced changes in crustal stress and pore pressure can act as a trigger, particularly for small-scale seismic events or in areas with faults already near failure. The extent and significance of this relationship depend on factors such as fault system characteristics, local geology, and the intensity and duration of rainfall.”

But, the “how much weight removal question” is still open and of interest. Because the mesial vectors of force likely exert asymmetrical impacts due to gravity bias, but we’re sure you remember that from your post-doc in seismology, right?

Fire Forces

…and additional vectors, then:

We will know more as the wind models for the next few days are reported.

Headline Scroll: Expectation Setting

Biden and Netanyahu are talking again about a Gaza ceasefire.  Even as JD Vance predicts hostage deal before Trump’s return to White House.  Good for global moods, perhaps, but likely of little impact on markets.

An “army of True Believers” is how this sounds to us:  North Korean POWs in Ukraine decline South Korea asylum. Which matters because in warfare, the mindset of soldiers can triumph over war materiel; hence we question if NATO forces are as “mentally tough.”

Canada’s dick-tator is talking about Trumperian real estate negotiations: Canada says ‘everything is on the table’ to Trump’s tariff threat. Our money is on Trump – if Biden doesn’t spend the last few cents before leaving office.  (Will there be an artifact audit?)

And one last “look at the sky” in Mars and the 2025 Wolf Moon meet in the sky.  Though we’re more interested in how the Bulls, Bears, and Wolves will get on in markets shortly.

Around the Ranch: Grown Up Kid’s Books

My buddy the Major and I have been trading “book notes.”  Along the way, citing recommendations to pass on to our sons.

His son, by the way, is now an official Lt. Col following the pinning ceremony weekend before this.  While talking about this, he made an interesting observation that we never have fully understood.  “Why is it that the 2nd. Lt. collar bars are gold, while the 1st Lt. bars (a higher grade) are silver?”  Yep – sounds back-asswards to us, but isn’t that the .mill way?

Yeah – we knew it, but just never tasked neurons to “solve for why” on that one. Now, though, we’re in “active wondering” mode.

With the pinning, The Major’s family now features an inverted command structure.  Mrs. Major was a Capt. in the medical corps.  So, she salutes The Major. (Well, in his dreams, anyway.)  And the Major salutes his Lt. Col. son now…  (I can’t get Elaine to salute me, even though she was a Spec. 5 and I was a civilian equivalent O4…”Get over it!” I think were her words…


There’s a biblical teaching (Proverbs 27:17) that says “As iron sharpens iron, so one person sharpens another”.  Masons are keen on this one.

Hence, we’re starting to compare notes on what we are working to “teach” and “pass on” to our sons.  Turns out he sent me an excellence (four page) refresher summary of David Goggins’ book “Can’t Hurt Me.”  (Amazon, alone, has sold more than 100,000 copies of this. It’s a great book.)

My suggested read for “the col.” was Cal Newport’s Deep Work because it can be used so effectively by super-busy (or ADHD) people (like me and son G2) to both focus and get all the other (monkey-motion) aspects of Life handled.

One of my colleagues recently did a review of my The Millenials Missing Manual” a while back and it got a favorable review.  That was written to pass on a lot of father-son life lesson framing ideas. So that may be worth a read.

The Major recommended I read the book “Jesus, Buddha, Krishna, and Lao Tzu: The Parallel Sayings.” Sounds like it’s worth time and study, so it’s on the list now.  Hardcover is on sale and the Kindle version is just $7 bucks, which I think I can handle…

Monday bottom line? I wanted to throw out for community comments “What are the best books for fathers to pass on to Sons, once they are on their own in life?”  Ought to ferret out some worthwhile study materials.


Best-laid plans?

A month or so back, I told you about planting perenial clover in front of our “180-room.”  This is the room we head to daily at 4 PM to sip wine and watch the wildlife around here.

Well, the deer apparently are SAG/AFTRA holders.  They are not showing up on time for perfomances without better comp plans.  The surveillance system caught ’em in the act after we were done with the wine, dinner, and off watching YouTube videos…

Looks like a yearling – maybe not old enough for his Deer Card, yet.

OK, Wolf Moon coming, blood in the Street.

Oh, and ShopTalk Sunday is here, if you missed it.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

30 thoughts on “Wolf Moon Monday: Markets Tremble, Raising Sons”

  1. Was just thinking about the fires and earthquakes in So Cal odd that the idea appears in this am’s update. I have been following Ethical Skeptic on X does very decent work on Pole Shift and weather dynamics. Have seen increased stories on the change of position of Sunrise/Sunset. The possibility exists for a major shift between now and perhaps 2030……..Hi-Grade Corporate spreads are trading like Fed gov agency’s – a massacre is coming ……..

    • I noticed the shift in sunrise/sunset positions a couple of years ago. 30 years ago the sunset was directly in line with the highway on our way to Wednesday evening services. Now it’s maybe 20 degrees left of the highway at the same time of year.

      • olfart wrote:
        “30 years ago the sunset was directly in line with the highway on our way to Wednesday evening services. Now it’s maybe 20 degrees left of the highway at the same time of year.”

        Hate to be the skeptic here but IF the sun had moved such a dramatic amount it certainly would be the talk of the town in every astro physics, geology, geography college and government department worldwide, AND among all pilots in the world … I have not seen anything to that effect pop up in any literature anywhere.

        The Magnetic North (and I assume South) have been a wandering about, more recently than in the past, in fact so much that some airport runways are now being renumbered (their numbers are based on magnetic north, not true north) but nothing even there that would indicate such a large move.

        I certainly hope such a move does not occur over such a short period of time since if it would obviously climates and growning areas worldwide would quickly change and massive worldwide famine would most likely occur.

        Stay safe!!

        • https://www.livescience.com/9231-earths-magnetic-field-shifts-forcing-airport-runway-change.html

          I was off a year it was 2011
          the young kids with NASA were really nice..they would send me photos one disk of the new positions ..A place I always wanted to see..one of the things on my bucket list was seeing both poles and doing a space walk..the kids at nasa did the next best thing.. they put go pro cameras on their gear and when they mapped the poles I was there live via internet it was an amazing adventure..then the kids in the space station did the same thing during a routine maintenance on the station.. amazing and oh so beautiful..
          needless to sat I am a fan of NASA.. so much in the ill library and tons of activities for the little kids..
          great news site.. one of my go to for news and sometimes cute drawings..
          https://antarcticsun.usap.gov/
          Then there’s the national Speliological society..
          https://caves.org/
          some of the man st beautiful places are beneath our feet..it was an activity I truly enjoyed when young..now I’m to old and fat to do it..but I do want to get a hundred feet of Bluewater 2 rope..

      • I’m not saying you’re wrong about the shifting sunrise/sunset in your area. Bear in mind the change seems to be local to you. Is it possible your local land is shifting. Perhaps a sinkhole under your house or town… or the highway. Are you near the Madrid fault? If you’re sure-sure you should move to avoid the catastrophe and stay off that highway.

        For a 3,500 year reference the Equinox at Chichén Itza has not changed. This is proof the shift is local to you.

        Equinoccio de Primavera 2025
        Mexican parties and events in Chichén Itzá

        https://www.zonaturistica.com/en/events-in/yucatan/chichen-itza/equinoccio-de-primavera

    • https://www.scribd.com/document/8986908/Cataclysms-of-the-Earth

      years ago there was a class I was taking this book and the Hab theory which has this book worked into its such structure.. was mandatory reading.. I keep both books right next to me along with the book on ancient Indian tribes of the south west.. the Jab theory is a more fun read..
      https://archive.org/details/habtheorynovel0000ecke
      now I had friends that worked on the ice.. for years.. was it 16 years ago while tracking the magnetic south pole the shift was bigger than it ever had been.. by several miles..
      I definitely suggest these books be read..then head to the museum of natural history..

        • Exactly.. I didn’t give the class much thought until I read the accounts of researchers then seeing the display of a mammoth… the Jab theory is the same book the cataclysm of the earth..but its a pretty fun read when the writer weaved the research being done into the plot of a decent syfy novel. worthy of reading.
          then considering the magnetic pole vortex phenomenon..

    • Clawsy. On that convergence and collapse of events in the quantum field. Here’s my observation. For you all today, Home gamers.

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=b89qOJ6D9Eo

      I’m expecting a 50% retracement anywhere along this bull cycle. Our multi year base is in the $65K range then a face ripper to ~$700K range will ensue (of course not without maximum FUD along the way).

      Got blockchain? Not advice, do your own homework.

      • The market will do its best to hurt the most ……I’m thinking 900 on the ES over several years – some more US catastrophes will ignite the liquidation of tons of 401k assets to live on and make mortgage payments on property that won’t see the light of day. Those holding digitalis will be wiped out as well. Hi grade corporates at levels close to Fed agency paper – where’s the trigger???? Over 40 yrs nobody in the fixed income biz would ever consider a hi yield junk fund or etf at less than 15%. Watch liquidity suddenly vanish …..

        • The story is 40 yrs of sales in the institutional experience fixed income markets which gives me a PHD based on experience – BD’s sell that which they need to get rid of – keep buying – be my guest – you will have nothing and be happy isn’t just a slogan….

        • Whats amatta Foxglove flowers/plants ?

          What chu takin bout, Willis ?

          I got all the Time and Patience in the World. Youse ALL will be coming to BCN in due time, as there will be no other options cept Central Bank Digital Coins – they will act like interactive Yellow Tags that Farmers use to keep track the Moosies.

          Obviously didnt Buy The Dip, so rogue ship in the financial seas youse all will be..

          * Blackrock, JPM, VGD will get their hands on the 401k’s under tRUMPS term…you can take that to the Blockchain .

  2. Almost forgot If Russia viewed the Ukraine activities as a threat of its borders and sovereignty what does Trump possibly think about his proposed Greenland plans – The neocons have their teeth in Trump ….. Russia, I suspect won’t allow it……

    • Classy See “the Louisiana Purchase”, and “Sewards folly” for precedent.

      Of course Greenland isn’t even incorporated? Wonder how much traffic’s via that hop unregulated?

      If foreign gubmint officialdom’s complacency and or aid/abet of Epstienian adventures involves removing said minor citizens from CONUS through (name you country). One would imagine that would constitute an act of war against US no? Through this lens I can see Trump and Musk are clearly trolling (actual) deplorables.

      Other option; If I was a Kanook, I would love the citizenship rights that are afforded to US after bearing witness to the True Dope Tyranny.

      Multiple choice. LOL. For entertainment purposes only.

    • Remember the War that most Americans forget, and rah rah Americans who claim our “Moral Superiority, try their best to forget … President Polk’s War with Mexico.

      Prior to that War the US LEGAL boundaries stopped at the Western Continental Divide since all we bought from France was the land that drained into the Mississippi and it’s tributaries.

      President Polk ran for President with one goal, HIS GOAL was to make the US a country that extended from the Atlantic to the Pacific, since NO PART of the US at that time reached the Pacifit. He spared no effort and worked to intentionally create a War with Mexico so that the US could seize Mexican land and extend it’s legal boundaries to the Pacific Coast.

      In doing that he engineered a number of events, which included sending John Freemont to California to organize the Americans who had moved there with the permission of Mexico, to REBEL against the Mexican Government, declare an independent country and then join the US.

      John Freemont’s so called “spontaneous rebellion” in California was anything but spontaneous but Freemont’s volunteers did succede in defeating the small Mexican detachment at the small agricultural settlement of Los Angelas and then drove south towards San Diego as a detachment of the US Army tried to fight it’s way west from Texas /and what is now New Mexico (they almost lost fwiw). They then declared California to be INDEPENDENT, (much like Texas did). (why to this day it is legally called the Republic of California)

      Voila with our invasion of Mexico, where we went all the way to Mexico City, after defeating the Mexican army we were able to secure a treaty with Mexico that ceded the Southwest to the US as well as the Pacific Coast all the way to what is now Seatle (though the Russians also claimed part of the Pac NW at the time, but had no military presence there, only a few scattered settlements).

      With that treaty signed Polk felt he had done what he set out to do … FULFILLED Tomas Jefferson’s VISION of a country that extended all the way to the Pacific … and did not run for re-election.

      In looking back in history the only mistake Polk may have done with his creating a War with Mexico to seize everything west of the Continental Divide was that he did not take the land along the Colorado River all the way to the Sea of Cortez thus giving the US a Pacific Ocean outlet in the Sea of Cortez in addition to obtaining the west coast from San Diego all the way to Seattle.

      From what I have read he apparently originally “thought” he was getting the Colorado River to it’s mouth but alas maps were bad in those days and he aparently later decided it wasn’t worth further War to obtain that extra territory since he was getting his main goal of all of California, the coast further north, and most of the inland parts of the Continent that were drained by the Colorado River.

      President Polk gets short shift in American History for his obtaining for the United States the second largest amount of land, after Jefferson’s Louisiana Purchase, ever obtained by the United States. Maybe he gets short shift because we did it by subterfuge and straight out military conquest, a dynamic in American history that people want to ignore.

  3. Your pages load differently now. A blank page is shown before being filled in.
    Not a big deal, couple of seconds, but just curious.

    • Same here. The blank pause has been happening for awhile. I chalk it up to an imperfect ‘life on the line’ and if it stops working, accept it stops working.

  4. (“Mrs. Major was a Capt. in the medical corps. So, she salutes The Major. (Well, in his dreams, anyway.) “)

    I am going to guess.. the Major is American born and bred…
    so..
    He’s the Rooster that rules the Roost…….
    She’s the Hen that Rules the Rooster…..

    the old saying I cad do whatever I want. Say whatever I want. ago anywhere I want.. just a second while I ask the wife… lol lol

  5. Last night after watching a herd of deer munching on a bale of hay on the tractor parked outside the house waiting to out go to the cattle this morning we caught the latest Why Files. The Quantum Apocalypse is here. Interesting but the ending really freaked Diana out. She’s been on the phone all morning checking on the kids. I withheld any witty observations until she calms down at least.
    Stay safe. 73

      • https://www.livescience.com/9231-earths-magnetic-field-shifts-forcing-airport-runway-change.htmthanks for that link..
        years ago I took care of the main scientist for the Apollo missions..he wrote a lot of the textbooks on quantum that were used in classrooms..at the time I didn’t have much interest in quantum..we would sit outside and have coffee during my break and visited about many things..his favorite saying..have you thought about it? what anything sit back and just think about the possibilities.. he would have been proud..I read his books and I have a deeper respect over quantum..
        so many have said we didn’t go to the moon..but I can honestly say..he wasn’t lying .. we went.now.did we fake a few photos to make our technology appear better..now that’s highly possible..a good sound stage..
        the guy in the satellite photo department was showing me how easy it is to fake photos and had put a sexy woman on a moon rock to show me how far technology has gone..

  6. I think the Internet has become a place where everyone is just trolling each another.

    “enough weight off”

    I thought about that but then remembered:

    “The law of conservation of mass states that matter can neither be created nor destroyed in a chemical reaction. For example, when wood burns, the mass of the soot, ashes, and gases equals the original mass of the wood and the oxygen when it first reacted.”

    – Apr 17, 2023

    Any weight from moisture or gasses from the burned material that float over the mountain range are being replaced by humans dropping water and fire retardant.

    That’s not to say God’s Judgement isn’t upon them. An EQ crack opens, the rains come, all evidence of human activity flows into the crack which closes forevermore erasing all evidence humans were ever there.

    And another thing!

    “Fire emits electromagnetic radiation that travels in invisible waves through space. When these waves hit a combustible material or a person, the radiant energy is absorbed and converted into heat.”

    Where are the radiation heads? They could finally get one right.

  7. No Worries Comrade Clawsy – Our Oreshnik Missile Systems can easily reach Greenland..rahrah sis BOOM Flash.

    And its gone..

    ..about that dam “Moose and Squirrel”..we know where your Ure dark hidey hole is..besides as the Wave of NRG rolls around down thru West Coast – it seeks weak points in the plate…ya know like drill points..
    Dont look now ..7.0 in Japan…NRG should be arriving in a couple days..Alaska – Oregon/Washinton – Cali – around the North American Craton it will flow, like a nice Borscht, where it stops nobody knows..

  8. Alas, as with most things military, rank color for officers is largely based upon tradition, much of it established for the U.S. military by George Washington during the Revolutionary War. The metal officer rank has a European army heritage. The USMC and USAF carry that tradition forward. The Navy officers wear epaulettes with rows of strips for ranks below admiral (more strips = higher rank) and stars for rear admiral and above. Navy ‘dress’ uniforms also use the strip system on the cuffs of their service dress coat (equivalent to a suit coat) sleeves.

    See this linked explanation. Be prepared to be amazed. Hey, it could be worse! Some officer ranks were once determined by fringe color or fringe length.

    https://tioh.army.mil/Catalog/Heraldry.aspx?HeraldryId=15686&CategoryId=9170&grp=2&menu=Uniformed%20Services&ps=24&p=0

  9. Good Morning George and all of Your Readers.

    I clipped this para of your thought flow:
    Different manners of “seeing Future” are, of course, in play beyond some of these simple psychologically-anchored concepts. There’s an Andy view, a G.A. Stewart view, a Clif view, and a Farsight approach.

    I suggest there is an other view to consider and that all of your readers consider exploring. That is the Shaman’s view.
    And that they take the time and money to learn from the
    ancient Andean Shaman’s how to create a new future.

    They know how to Future Change. They are the only sure source who I know that can do this. They “Time Travel”.
    Your readers will question me. However, I am learning about this as we speak.

    I am doing their energetic workshop which is about six months of intensive training. Do NOT take on anything else if you do it. Instead imbed yourself in the experience.

    Go here to Alberto Villoldo’s website.
    The Four Winds Society.

    From one perspective the main course is very expensive.
    From another its a bargain. Its the result of thousands of years of research “in a nut shell.”

    Only go to the below if you wish to become an advanced aware human being…an advanced spiritual soul.

    The Four Winds

    https://thefourwinds.com
    Home – The Four Winds
    The Life-Changing Energy Medicine Program. Founded by Dr. Alberto Villoldo, The Four Winds Society offers the world’s most thorough training in Shamanic Energy Medicine combined with cutting-edge practices in nutrition, biology and neuroscience.Over the past 25 years, we have trained and mentored more than 10,000 students from all walks of life – scientists, construction workers, nurses …

    The Energy Medicine Training

    “The shaman and physician for millennia were the same person until the 19th century when they were split apart in the name of science. … The Four Winds Society offers the world’s most thorough training in Shamanic Energy Medicine combined with cutting-edge practices in nutrition, biology and neuroscience. … Alberto is part of the course …
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    The Four Winds

    https://thefourwinds.com › online-courses
    Online courses – The Four Winds
    We offer the most extensive courses in shamanism and energy medicine, who has helped thousands of students to lead successful lives and careers. Master Training Get your certification in shamanic practice, energy medicine and healing.

    One other thing for you to see and under right now is “How Each of You Have Become a Very Advanced Human/Soul.

    See this video by Jerry Gin!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHvGi3ZtoXI

    I send all my love to all of you.

  10. Marcus Aurelius on prediction:

    48. Don’t let yourself forget how many doctors have died, after furrowing their brows over how many deathbeds. How many astrologers, after pompous forecasts about others’ ends. How many philosophers, after endless disquisitions on death and immortality. How many warriors, after inflicting thousands of casualties themselves. How many tyrants, after abusing the power of life and death atrociously, as if they were themselves immortal.

    • Thanks for this.. I’ve been dipping into the book..dam that’s a good book..I believe I will use it for reference in the future.

  11. just posting this here in case anything comes of it:
    around 6pm CST started getting very sudden fatigue accompanied by mild dizziness.. still here at 10pm but the heavy wave of it has past. now that I’m clearing up, thought this feels just like really strong ‘earthquake tired’.

    or bad lunch. I suppose time will tell!

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