Housing is Hot

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Denver and San Francisco were the hottest of the Hot in this morning’s S&P Housing report just out:

New York, April 28, 2015 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released for February 2015 show that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com.Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ housing blog: www.housingviews.com.

Year-over-Year
Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites saw larger year-over-year increases in February compared to January. The 10-City Composite gained 4.8% year-over-year, up from 4.3% in January. The 20-City Composite gained 5.0% year-over-year, compared to a 4.5% increase in January. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 4.2% annual gain in February 2015, weaker than the 4.4% increase in January 2015.

Denver and San Francisco reported the highest year-over-year gains, as prices increased by 10.0% and 9.8%, respectively, over the last 12 months. It was the first double digit increase for Denver since August 2013. Seventeen cities reported higher year-over-year price increases in the year ended February 2015 than in the year ended January 2015, with San Francisco showing the largest acceleration. Three cities — San Diego, Las Vegas and Portland, OR — reported that the pace of annual price increases slowed.

We did find this chart revealing:  Housing prices have now clawed their way back to 2005 levels in the 20-City Composite view.

Earlier this morning, the market was set to fall more from yesterday’s decline.

While our Trading Model, over on the Peoplenomics™ side of things has been consistently bullish, we will know a lot more once the market gnaws through this morning’s housing data, tomorrow’s Fed waffle, and the other worries that seem to preoccupy people’s conversation.  Like the arrival of social chaos…which could be why even a solid housing report didn’t lift the futures to the plus column.

Baltimore Burning, The Historical Rhyme

While Baltimore schools are closed this morning due to the rioting, there’s a much larger question that is unanswered:  What’s driving it?

The rioting following the Freddie Gray funeral has resulted in the National Guard being called in and we have to wonder, what with Ferguson being just over the event horizon, how many more cities will be struck this year.

The problem is the lack of spontaneity to it all.  In fact, as a note from colleague Grady at www.nostracodeus.com points out..

UPDATE: Sunday I thought it odd that ‘looting’ had shown up in the indicator words. Then Monday afternoon/evening, in Baltimore, gangs are looting stores.

Sunday’s Indicator words: War, Quake, Battle, Earthquake, Aircraft Carrier, Assassination, Pollution, Looting

A search of the term “Baltimore gangs” brings interesting returns, such as this one.

We’ve been tracking an interesting meme on the Peoplenomics side; specifically that there are some possible parallels between the 1921 market break (rough an analog to the Housing Bubble implosion and subsequent recover) and where that rhyme would place us today.  (Late August of 1927, if you don’t subscribe).

With this in mind, we can peruse the events of 1927 over here, beginning with “Al Capone‘s Chicago Outfit earns a yearly income of $108 million.”  Corrected for inflation, you’re in Cartel-sized revenues.

Remember, during the 1920’s gangs had tremendous power and influence because they had money.  When prohibition finally ended (1920-1933) a good part of government action was driven by public disgust (and fear) over the activities of hoodlums.

Today’s gangs are different, smarter, and able to use social media tools and some news awareness to exert power over large areas.

I would offer that the recent reports of DEA officers partying with drug cartel supplied hookers and such is a symptom of a rhyme of history today.  The drug-funded gangs are showing their influence in many places, not just Baltimore.

Strategically, it’s a tough one:  First because there are legit abuses of police power and abuses of rights and wrongful deaths.

But the larger problem is that the influence of gangs is growing among the young and I’d lay a LOT of that at the feet of Hollywood which has fantasized drug-action-anti-establishment roles for profit.

The answer – and it worked with booze in the last Depression – is to acknowledge that people want their chemical outlets.  So let them have it, tax it, and control the situation.  Without it, the US is likely to continue on a path of downward spiral until the bankruptcy of current policies becomes clear, and it had with the repeal of the 18th amendment in 1933.

Organized crime (which is what gangs are)  fills a void which government should be bright enough to recognize – and when drug money mixes with politics, it’s a volatile situation that can close down whole cities.  That government policies don’t address the real problems of glorifying crime and other state-builders, is evidence of either negligence, or something worse.

Participation.

Government has become so wrapped up in “protecting its own” that it can’t fix what’s obvious.  In my book, that’s participation at a fundamental level while playing out a charade on the surface.

Race to the Bottom

Meantime, we notice that 1.4 million have now been designated “victims” of the earthquake last weekend in Nepal.

So here’s the question:  Is that problem about the same size as Baltimore, now?

Big City Water Question

Speaking of social behavioral economics, here’s an interesting note:  You know that fluoride in water makes people more docile, right?

So here comes this note about the FedGov lowering the standards for levels of fluoride in water.  Question is…will this make or allow people to get more cranky and irritable as the fluoride levels come down?

As long as we’re fixing up a perfect storm for summer, why not an end to anti-depressants, too.  I can think of nothing better than a good cancer scare story to make even more people angry and unpredictable this summer.

Yep, fire hoses at the ready…

(Hey!  Wait a minute!  Is civil disorder a stealth economic stimulus package?)

Tearing Down the Bricks

Here’s further evidence of the revolution in online shopping that is making it possible for people to make fewer and fewer trips to stores:  UPS earnings are up 14% in the latest quarter.

I’d hold back on investment in commercial real estate for a while longer till the trend slows down…

Iran Still Running the Clock

Significant to Ures truly that Iran is already starting to use an elastic clock when comes to nuclear talks.  This morning, their leader is claiming the economic sanctions are already “collapsing” and state-run media adds this bait…

“If the opposite side shows serious determination,” a final deal will be possible within the next few months.

No, not few, TWO.  Language matters and you can see the set-up for more stalls while the centrifuges keep spinning.

          

Ever wonder how many people are “branded” in ‘Merica?  Think it’s an unbranded brand?  Wrong…

8 thoughts on “Housing is Hot”

  1. I would venture that the appeal of a “gang career” has much to do with the dissolution of the family unit and its moral support and boundaries, and with the complete lack of job opportunity due to software/robotics and the global deflation.

    Per my kids, a lot of the issue is that people are convinced that lots of money will make things better – hence they gear their lives for this. This is what their friends tell them their career choices are based on, and they tell me that ‘making lots of money’ is honestly the goal of most of their generation.

    I would lay this at the feet of Wall St. craziness, lack of a knowledge of history and a lack of honesty and integrity in society – none of which are taught in school, and little of which is taught by family. Gang life appeals with structure (lacking in family), boundaries, clan and opportunities. Similar to Al Capone and their ‘family’ life, but without the nuclear family and basic morality visible as a counterpoints.

    And BTW – my subconscious has been exerting the whole “quake meme” and an “eruption meme” over the last few weeks too…

    • You forgot the Hollywood Bankster, Highly Organized Crime,(but I repeat myself),nexus. How many Hollywood movies end with “denarius ex machina”? IOW how many times do the good, bad or ugly guys end up with the Halliburton case full of FRNs??The message of course is obvious:cold cash can resolve all of life’s problems. The brainwashing has worked, probably beyond all PTB expectations. The world still reaps what it sows.

    • Agreed, somewhere the lack of certain foundational structures are behind these fiascoes:

      1) Attack on religion: this is where most people get the morals, character, integrity teaching AND strength in something bigger than themselves OR their government. This teaching leads to respect for self, respect for others, and living for a larger society than themselves.

      2) Attack on families: Gov passed laws in 60’s so that single women would go to the gov for bennies that they cannot get while married. Once the women started getting bennies, the men were no longer appreciated in the home (they were needed, but they were no longer valued). Now we have hordes of single mothers raising children in fatherless homes. Look at the woman who ‘facially spanked’ her teenage son for participating in the riots in Baltimore. Single Mother of SIX children!! In the OLDEN days, a woman would not DARE get pregnant outside of marriage because she would instinctively and wisely know that SOMEONE would have to support her children. Yes, this woman works, but I can bet you she is also getting bennies!

      3) For profit prisons: Nice little captive slave trade going on there.

      4) Laws only applied to lower and middle CITIZEN classes to fill the for profit prisons. Many criminal prosecutions take many black men off of the street and out of their families’ lives. HUGE increase in White collar crime which goes completely UNPUNISHED!!! HUGE increase in ILLEGAL ALIENS crimes which not only go unpunished but unprosecuted AND they are released back into the American citizen population to harm again.

      5) 25 year unlawful immigration: Massive illegal immigration IGNORED by Federal and State governments so as to keep wages low and also to hire the illegals (WHO MOSTLY manage to stay married and in family units) while the wife collects all the bennies as the laws are written that you cannot ask their citizenship status or marital status, so they step right up and actually OUT BENNIE the American citizen. Which leads to more massive illegal immigration which takes jobs from the American citizen. Why don’t you ever see the HUGE construction and Housing industries which trade on the stock exchanges, EVER go to any neighborhood school and try to recruit and hire American citizens for the millions of jobs in construction and housing these last 25 years? NO enforcement at the Federal and State level for hiring illegals. OUR borders are breached and no one in government gives a damn.

      6) Huge increase in H1B visa holders, over stayer of Visas, outsourcing of our jobs, and complete unconcern for bringing in any one from anywhere to take away our citizens jobs.

      7) Massive legal immigration. 132 languages spoken in Dallas and many other areas. A worst case science project of a modern day tower of Babel consequence. Inability of people to not only understand each other which takes some form of communication but how long do you think it is going to take for these immigrants to understand, appreciate, or support the Declaration of Independence or the US Constitution?

      8) Dumbing down the masses. How come it is taking 100 years to figure out how to teach a kid the basics, reading, writing, and arithmetic, country and world history, foreign language, arts, and music, and science? What the ‘hell’ has happened to kindergarten through 12th grade? Why are 25% of young people not graduating from high school? Why is it that our gov will spend billions educating the illegals from kindergarten through college (yes, those programs exist in Austin right now), but the American citizens have to get student loans and go into debt?

      9) Criminal culture foisted on us by the entertainment industry. A criminal mental and spiritual attack daily from the tv programs, to movies, to video games. An onslaught of violence, degradation, porn, immorality, lack of integrity, low class and low mindedness, and just all out disgusting filth spewed day in and day out.

      10) Criminal FDA and CDC foisting Monsanto foods and chemical vaccine injections on the masses which neither are tested nor proven effective. Causing massive obesity epidemic, and all sorts of neurological and digestive issues not to mention the huge increase in asthma, dementia/Alzheimer’s, and asperger’s/autism spectrum disorders. It is like watching Rome burn while everyone is twiddling or is that fiddling?

      11) Endless wars…

      12) 99% of media (print, tv’s, radio, entertainment companies) owned by 6 corporations. They coordinate the spiel and propaganda never focusing on anything that improves anything. Filled with lies, deceit, while Rome burns.

      I am sure I have missed something, but this is a start. When one looks, one sees the onslaught and destruction that has been wreaked on this nation and the resulting chaos.

      We are no longer a government by the people for the people but we are a sold out country, sold to the highest bidder, getting propagandized by the media to support endless wars, heads up the UN Agenda 21 buts, trade agreements that will further destroy the sovereignity of the United States. A transformation of an unimaginable holocaust to our way of life is being forced on America and the elected leaders pat themselves on their traiterous backs.

  2. Awhile back I mentioned how I was tired of all the doomporn. It now seems for years The end is near and we some how keep stumbling along.
    IS it possible that this is what plugging into a galactic federation economic system looks like? That somehow this allows us to keep stumbling along while we are closing in on upgrading our economy wholesale. I see an awful lot of new tech happening that does not get much play. Advances in Nano tubes, new chemistry for CO2 and water equals Hydrocarbon Fuel, 3d printing, massive jumps in computing on the way, New cheaper distribution systems. Believe it or not we have a new way of making war that minimizes civilian and Soldier causalities it just burns resources. (Drones, Virtual internet conflict) All of this is coupled with a one world Government that you have to have in order to be in a Federation type space thingy. I never thought 5 years ago it would be legal to buy pot in the US but here we are. Anyway You just charged me another 40$ all electronically and I am pretty happy with the “Value” received.

  4. You mention fluoride: I have posted this before but it is important to keep repeating it. Fluoridated water mixed with green tea causes lowering the iodine in the body which can lead to low thyroid. Low thyroid leads to slower or lowered metabolism, depression, hair loss and many other symptoms, look that up on the internet. Bromated flour lowers iodine as well. Fluoride is a toxic chemical.

  6. These comments and this blog are an excellent illustration of a point I have been making for several years. When a bad decision has been made, every decision that follows will feel suboptimal. This situation makes competent, aware people feel crazy. America, there are no good decisions left for you because of all the lousy decisions already made for you at the highest levels of government and banking.

    America has exploited other countries for decades in its quest for wealth and empire. The PTB are now exploiting their own citizens, and the economy is so drained that the wealthy have even begun exploiting each other in their insatiable quest for more.

    Basically I see three choices were I there. Leave the country as your ancestors did, simply unplug and ignore the situation as long as you can, or find yourself some good chemicals to help you cope, which many already are, indicated by the levels of antidepressants, antipsychotics, alcohol and street drugs already being consumed.

    That’s how it looks after six years in Ecuador.

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