Breaking Data
Two numericals to stir into your morning coffee. First is the report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis that says incomes were going up nicely in January:
“Personal income increased $116.5 billion (0.6 percent) in January according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $101.4 billion (0.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $29.6 billion (0.2 percent).
Real DPI increased 0.5 percent in January and Real PCE increased 0.1 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.
The other is the Census snapshot of January International Trade:
“Advance International Trade in Goods The international trade deficit was $65.5 billion in January, down $3.2 billion from $68.7 billion in December. Exports of goods for January were $135.7 billion, $1.4 billion less than December exports. Imports of goods for January were $201.2 billion, $4.6 billion less than December imports.
Advance Wholesale Inventories Wholesale inventories for January, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $672.4 billion, down 0.2 percent (±0.4 percent)* from December 2019, and were up 0.6 percent (±0.9 percent)* from January 2019. The November 2019 to December 2019 percentage change was revised from down 0.2 percent (±0.4 percent)* to down 0.3 percent (±0.4 percent)*.
Advance Retail Inventories Retail inventories for January, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $660.5 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.2 percent)* from December 2019, and were up 0.3 percent (±0.7 percent)* from January 2019. The November 2019 to December 2019 percentage change was revised from virtually unchanged (±0.2 percent)* to down 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)*.
Virus Crazies – Staying Rational
This morning harks back to the MBA days and a course on STQM: Statistical Total Quality Management. It was where I learned to look at the data and then make rational decisions based on the data.
It’s easy to be misled by “virus data.” Given that this morning we have 83, 704 confirmed cases and 2,859 (we assume confirmed) dead, what are these numbers inferring?
Several important things. First, the data seems to be settling down into a mortality rate of around 3.41%. HOWEVER, that’s only among confirmed cases.
There are so many “unknowns” in all that that we really can’t be certain of mortality yet. The disease is just “getting legs” as it goes global. Lower than SARS, though, by a lot, so far.
Second point is the number of new cases (as of this morning) was growing at a daily rate of around 1.7%. That’s between the Chinese low reported and their high – which was around 5-6% before their methodology was changed.
The Big Hidden Variables in this are enough to drive you mad.
That’s because there are so few test kits (less than 200 for the state of California has one report). Not only that, but the efficacy of the test (reliability, repeatability, and uglies like that) are only estimated at this time.
This last point is critical, because while there are certain cases of people reported “getting the virus” and then “recovering” -only to be found with the virus again, we have this 13-foot high question mark: Is that because the tests are flaky and may report active anti-bodies after a case, OR because the case is active and shedding, again?
Near as I can figure it, no one knows.
With this data in hand, we can only pencil-out some initial projections of where this leads 5-days out, and then further (in 5-day increments) into the future.
Yes, globally 6,256 bodies is a fair-sized stack.
BUT, when you consider world population, that means the odds of dead from this in an N of 7.6-billion is? 8.231578947368421e-7. In other words, take that 8 and toss 7 zero’s ahead of it. Think 8.23 X 10 to the -7 power. (Wikipedia will explain engineering notation over here, in case you forgot how it works.)
If we project out even further, the numbers do become more worrisome. By 17-months out, the number of people dying worldwide will just equal the number of people killed globally in auto accidents annually. 1.25 million die annually, yet people still drive.
One way of looking at COVID-19 is it evens the odds between riding the bus and driving…
How To Prep
The simplest, most direct way to prep is? Have a month, or more, of food and water for each member of the family. Something we have advocated for since we started this site in 1997.
Second thing to do is get any general health issues addressed. Elaine will have her second of the two-part pneumonia vaccine shots next week. Mine was done in January. See your doc. We noticed COVID vics are getting pneumonia as the exit path…
Third step is to get some vitamin C and use it. Read two articles to understand why. First one is over on The Daily Health Post under the time “Vitamin C Kills Almost Every Virus Known to Mankind.” This doesn’t mean it will stop COVID-19,. but it’s an inexpensive bet to place.
Which then gets to the cytokine storm odds where the body gets so zealous in fighting the attacking virus that it starts to attack useful organs and such. Which is why you might want to read “Vitamin C and Immune Function” because here’s the key part from where I sit:
“Vitamin C deficiency results in impaired immunity and higher susceptibility to infections. In turn, infections significantly impact on vitamin C levels due to enhanced inflammation and metabolic requirements. Furthermore, supplementation with vitamin C appears to be able to both prevent and treat respiratory and systemic infections. Prophylactic prevention of infection requires dietary vitamin C intakes that provide at least adequate, if not saturating plasma levels (i.e., 100–200 mg/day), which optimize cell and tissue levels. In contrast, treatment of established infections requires significantly higher (gram) doses of the vitamin to compensate for the increased inflammatory response and metabolic demand.”
If you want to go further, see your healthcare practitioner or PCP (primary care physician). But the data suggests to me a series of simple inferences: Be generally healthy, take half a gram (500 mg) of C per day, and get a pneumonia shot series if you’re a senior or healthcare worker or first-responder.
And, since 1.25 million people die each year in traffic accidents, the analog in infectious disease to “Stay off the Road!” in traffic is avoid unnecessary public contact.
Be sensible about all your risks in Life. 39-people died of dog bite related outcomes in 2017 (and 74% involved pit bulls). While we expect US deaths will appear shortly, it’s likely to be a few weeks before we get anywhere near dog bite deaths.
Remember, I can still fly and airplane and ride a hog. But, at 71, where is the “stupid boundary?” You are your own insurance company!
Back to the STQM question What problem are you trying to solve, here?
Market Crash Greater Than 1929?
One again, the fear-mongering media (FMM) doesn’t understand STQM worth a shit.
While you can find lots of stories that begin to link 1929 to the events in trading this week, these people are years late to the party because group-think rules America.
We’ve been tracking the relationship between market bubbles and 1929 and hate to break it to you, but anyone who’s making a parallel to 1929 is being disingenuous.
Sure, there number of points dropped was larger than 1929. The Dow was around 380 at the top in ’29. So,, d’uh… a thousand points is bigger.
But percentage-wise? We haven’t even started the main part of the downslope. What’s more, in the next week, or three, we should get a nice, playable rally. From which one wild-eyed person who writes a lot may re-enter a short position. Here’s how I see it:
The top blue sloping arrow MAY be about where we are. Which means (if the replay is close-enough) a rally could development next week, or the one after. See where the upper (green) sloping arrow points?
HOWEVER, then another round of Corona-Panic and we could head down to the region of the lower of the blue arrows. running our of parts to make cars or no more UHD TVs coming in would drive that. We gotta have our toys, right?
In fact, I would not be surprised if we get something of a minor rally next week because we have dropped down (as expected) into the “red zone” where, if we cross lower, this almost certainly will be a larger crash and ensuing Depression than 1929.
There are two trend channels shown. We are looking at a possible close this week around the lower channel’s lower bound. But, in event of a strong rally, we could make a case for a move up to the lower bound of the upper trend channel. Wouldn’t that be golden?
And then, depending on how the future rolls out, re-shorting from there….the mind reels. Sweet dreams of short-term capital gains taxes to come.
But, don’t count your chickens before they crash…and no, this is NOT financial advice. Ravings of a lunatic so no, don’t do it!!! You’re sure to lose money!
To be sure, the Administration’s response is pretty moderate. Seems to me they haven’t run out where the death toll goes not next year, but the following years after that… In fairness, if you had the checkbook, where would you buy a fix for this crap?
Then again, if the dems were serious about stopping the disease – they’re not – they would seal-up our borders.
When we have a real border – so ChiComs and OTMs can’t come in that wide-open door (and they do) – THEN I will believe the bleeding-heart idiots are serious. Not before.
What’s more, they would not support the disease vectors called sanctuary cities and homeless camps. They would clean up their towns and rehab people, not just run for re-election on a “fix it later” tick.
Now, if they wanted to spend some of that $8-billion (money they don’t have yet and will turn around and take from you – and then Blame Trump, which is their whole shtick) on something other than grand-standing, wouldn’t that be great?
Don’t hold your breath. America’s been so dumbed down by left-wing educators, it’s to the point where everyone’s got a hustle on…and a crooked side-gig/scam.
E.G. – S.C. & Greater Fools
With the long-lead-in to real news out of the way (must be alive to win, though) we can begin formulating the next big “news dynamic” that should appear.
Earning Growth (E.G.) Look for this to crater because everyone went to China for the “free lunch” implicit in offshoring. Now, the bill has come due. We have virtually zero fallback.
Supply Chain (S.C.) This means that in short-order we should see the beginnings of the consumer supply chain drying up. Which makes a certain huge online retailer up at the front of the alphabet an interesting short… And then there’s the matter of when (what little we have left of) domestic manufacturing shuts down because of a lack of parts, what will that do to the National Debt?
And then in turn, the Most Humungous Question Of All (MHQOA): Who will be the Greater Fools who will buy and hold for the long-term?
Come on…at 71, you think I don’t want to make a bunch shorting this pig and not plan on wait around for 10-20 to make The Big Score? If you’re under 50, what lies ahead at the bottom of Depression 2.0 will be the chance of a lifetime to stack cash and hang up chasing the bag. Lucky you.
OK, off to work on breakfast and Peoplenomics. Have a great weekend and I think it’s prudent to have 3-4 weeks of food slowly accumulating for a potential quarantine months down the road. Not saying it will, just saying IF then you might want to have some comfort food stashed.
Only $26.24-billion of repo’s this morning, so further down seems possible, at least at the open.
Write when you get rich,
george@ure.net
George
Gregg Hunter has a screed out this morning that mirrors what you research on the Market. He mentions another researcher who you might wan to know about.
Go here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpQK3na5cuA
It looks like unfortunately your right on target! Congratulations.
would it be congratulations.. or OH SHIZT I WAS HOPEING YOU WERE WRONG…
I am hoping that it doesn’t happen on the fifteenth of March..
Unfortunately this may be the big roller coaster ride we have all been afraid of..
The Sooth Sayer intoned to Caesar:
Beware the IDES of March!
But to his Death he was deaf. As are many!
It is BO POLNY, a man of questionable character.
My opinion, only. May be right, may be wrong.
1) 1000mg of Vit C a day is better. 3000 is not too much when
fighting off a cold or the flu. 400 IU of Vit E is a “goes-with”
for Vit C. They work together.
2) 2000 to 5000 of Vit D is important.
3) Q-10 is VERY valuable.
4) “Trace elements” in a Vit pill is a Good Thing.
Field soils are depleted of trace elements.
5) Buy (and wash) local produce as much as possible.
Lots of our supermarket produce comes from 3rd
world countries with low sanitation standards.
6) I am not panicked, but I am concerned about the
idea of “Social-Financial Cascade Faliures” due to
the interdependence of supply, and the whole
“just-in-time” avoidance of stocking warehouses.
Cascade failures are VERY hard to re-boot.
This whole thing will be unfolding for well over a year,
or even more. A summer hiatus is likely, and a Return
in the fall seems historically justified to consider. This
is not a sprint — it’s going to be a Marathon.
Buckle in, and BRACE-BRACE-BRACE.
I second the higher levels of vitamins if you can get them and keep them. Don’t forget sunshine – go out somewhere in nature under the naked sun and expose some skin. Don’t get a burn, but get real sun exposure to form endogenous vitamin D. The pills are good, but raw sun is better when it’s available. I’m not sure exactly what wavelengths of UV are necessary to do this artificially. The sun is what we evolved under.
Vitamin C and E – especially C, are absolutely critical for their antioxidant and anti-pathogen effects! Something affected our evolution and we lost the gene to make vitamin C. That’s a real deficit in the human genome.
Hey George, what happens to the 3X inverse ETFs like SDOW when the market craters? SDOW has had three 1 for 4 stock splits since it’s inception. Two of those since Trump came into office. Is it likely there will be a forward split of does the fund just go belly up?
Heard about the first immediately relevant supply chain disruption yesterday. Was at a welding supply store buying N95 respirators as those in pharmacies and hardware stores are long gone.
Counterman told me that a body shop customer said he might have to close next week. He uses BASF paint made in Spain but with pigments sourced in China and Spain had not gotten its pigments. Presumably there will be a work around, but for how long? We’re not panicky, but our Ft. Lauderdale to Southampton trip at the end of May in a giant petri dish (cruise ship) looks more and more iffy. Unfortunately, it’s too late to purchase “cancel for any reason” travel insurance.
As an amateur worst case scenarioist:
Would this be a better formula for getting the death rate, if the numbers are accurate?
Total Deaths/(Total Deaths + Total Recoveries)
2867/(2857 + 36654)
2867/39521 = .07254 or 7.25% death rate?
Let’s say the doom and gloom of 60% of the world population contracting it is true……
est. 7.8 billion X 60% = 4.68 billion
4.68 billion * 7.25% = 339.3 Million deaths worldwide.
No because of the incubation times – which is why a 5-day rolling seems reasonable.
But to each, their own Excel
I read back when you wrote about the 5 day rolling….but why was it again that you settle on 5 days? 5 days from full blown to death?
It was just an educated guess – lots of people don’t die until 14-days, but many people go into hospital at the 10-day or earlier mark out of China…so dart landed on 5-day rolling
The virus will be the reasoning behind Bail-Out City.
Trump “We had to restart the jobs… we had to do it.” And the Rinos will line-up, “We had to restart the jobs… we had to do it.” And the Conservative constituents, “We had to restart the jobs… we had to do it.”
House milk will flip to $8.00 a gallon. House bread will suddenly be worth $3.50 a loaf.
“There are no fiscal conservatives in a market crash.”
Will Trump authorize some kind of UBI if we all get locked down? Probably and it’ll be good.
“Is that because the tests are flaky and may report active anti-bodies after a case, OR because the case is active and shedding, again?”
Could also be that the first test showing “clear” was invalid. This is more troublesome than the other two.
We should also consider a possible mutation, which would be very worrying.
long time reader and subscriber. seems pointless to email you. i do on many occasions with no response. whatever filter you use sends me right to spam
Hi – well, my email works: George@ure.net is not filtered.
If you are clicking a web link, that may be bad – let me know where and I will fix it!
You’re the only one reporting this issue so far…
He’s not the only one. I’ve sent you at least 3 emails with no response.
Also, comments are held for moderation which only happens once every two-hours, or so because I don’t sit hovering over the computer every second…
“because I don’t sit hovering over the computer every second…”
Well George, then you need to complete that time machine and create a time warp where you can blog, chat, podcast, tinker in the maker barn, read, eat, binge watch and sleep all at the same time. You are in demand! :)
George,
I am confused. About 6 weeks ago, I made a comment that called the Corona virus fake and you lambasted me. I later apologized and am now on board with your way of thinking…but now we have a President and his state run media saying that and all I hear from studio headquarters in rural Texas is crickets?
Hannity, Limbaugh and the entire state run Fox News channel puppets are downplaying the virus. You say how Dems like to blame Trump for everything. Have you listened to Fox? They blame Dems on everything…and I am a Republican…but I am fair and know a scammer when I see one.
On Thursday night, Hannity mocked concerns about the potential threat of the coronavirus. “I can report the sky is absolutely falling, we’re all doomed, the end is near,” Hannity said sarcastically, adding, “Or at least that’s what the media mob and the Democratic extreme radical socialist party want you to think.” Even during his softball interview with Mike Pence, Hannity attacked top Democrats as “politicizing” the situation.
During the next hour, Ingraham continued the theme. She downplayed concerns and told viewers to “calm down.” Chryons on her show read “LEFT’S CORONAVIRUS SMEAR CAMPAIGN,” “LEFT’S CORONAVIRUS FEARMONGERING,” and “LEFT TRYING TO PANIC AMERICANS OVER CORONAVIRUS.” Her guest, Trump 2020 advisory board member Harmeet Dhillon accused Trump’s critics of “cheering for a disease to take over America.” You get the idea.
Trump himself said it is all under control. ‘it could all disappear” he stated. Is it, will it? As I stated yesterday, the biggest mistake we could make is complacency on this virus. If we don’t take it seriously, it will become serious. Prevention is the best medicine. But if messages directed at Trumps base say that it’s a conspiracy and that Dems are trying to incite panic, then how will Trumps base react? They will ignore the prevention.
Or, since you all are wild eyed conspiracy junkies, maybe Trump is secretly a Hilldabeast card carrying member (He did support her financially in many of her NY state and 2008 campaigns.) and he is keeping his enemies close to eliminate them in a Dr Evil sort of way. Funny thing is…this scenario is mild compared to some of the crazy ideas I hear on Fox. Yes, I watch Fox, to excercise my eye sockets via eye rolls and to strengthen my core via belly laughs.
“we have a President and his state run media saying”
That is a simple answer.. of course this is my opinion.. but I think that…
They have to downplay it……..
even if a nuclear missile was headed straight for us they would have to downplay it.. to disclose just how serious this could possibly become would cause undo panic..
I think that if there was a panic that the panic would not only put a run on commodities but the whole economy would implode..the dollar bill would collapse and so many
I am positive that they are working extremely hard in the back ground to stop this virus..
NOW for what its worth….. I did get a call the other day from an aquaintance.. that to me indicates that this virus is.. by my interpretation of what was said seen as a very serious situation and being taken quite seriously even though the virus was never discussed at all……
I don’t watch Fox, I rarely look at their website, and I don’t listen to any of the aforementioned radio shows, so I don’t know or particularly care what any of those sources are saying. I can say that up until Monday or Tuesday, all I was seeing were stories about how the flu is way worse than coronavirus, no one should be worried, and everyone needs to chill out, relax, and make sure they got a flu shot. Mysteriously, since about Wednesday, all of the stories pumping up this year’s flu and downplaying the coronavirus have been disappeared and been replaced by “OMG CORONAVIRUS!” and “Trump is messing this up!” Literally, the headlines on Google News right now…
Trump says Democrats are blaming him for Coronavirus
Markets not buying Trump administration is ready for coronavirus
Trump seeks a ‘miracle’ as virus fears mount
When a Pandemic Meets a Personality Cult
It’s the incompetence that may bring Trump Down
So maybe you can explain why, as soon as Trump holds a press conference saying (in his admittedly fumbling sort of way) everything is going to be ok, we’re working on it and there’s no reason to panic, WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT THE MEDIA HAS BEEN SAYING FOR WEEKS, he’s the idiot, and the press has switched over to “PANDEMIC NOW!”
JT,
That has never been the case. The Corona virus has been in the upper fold of all publications and the breaking news of most TV news stations for over a month. The media has been begging for a White House response. I have been begging for a White House response, but Trump takes things so personal, that he THINKS it’s an attack upon him. It’s not.
America just wants direction. The want to know that the White House is taking this seriously, because the CDC, who could care less who is President…and others are barking very loudly to take heed of this potential issue. Listen, when you are doing business with someone who never gives you specific details about a transaction together, except to say…I have got it under control…wouldn’t that raise some red flags?
This is the situation with Trump. Nobody is blaming him…they just want factual reassurance that he is on the same page as everyone else who is concerned. Hell, he was arguing in his presser with Sanjay Gupta…throwing out false stats…this is where you have to question Trumps narcissist ways and how that affects his competence.
“The media has been begging for a White House response. I have been begging for a White House response,”
Pay attention. He first responded over two months ago…
Mark, yes, it’s been in the news. But there have been a few categories of stories, and that is what has changed this week. Before, some have focus on China, some focused just on the numbers worldwide, and then some, the ones I’m referring to, talked about it in terms of risk to the US. In the latter category, this was the norm. This story is a week old, and they were all over the place, nationally and locally.
https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2020/02/19/flu-is-a-bigger-worry-for-florida-than-coronavirus
We’ve been told for weeks in stories like the above that this is a contagious, but seldom fatal illness, and that you are at greater risk of flu than coronavirus.
All the White House can say at this point is we’re working on it, stay calm, don’t panic, and that’s essentially what Trump, in his clumsy fashion, said. He isn’t going to personally discover the vaccine, he’s not the one crunching numbers and calculating the risk – he’s got scientists and epidemiologists to do that. He isn’t going to come out and say “We’re all screwed!” because the panic would be counterproductive and likely cause more chaos than the sickness. You might not like how he has communicated the message, and that’s fair enough, but besides being less muddled, I don’t see how he can do much different with regards to the actual content of the message he’s sending.
Mark:
“The Coronavirus has been in the upper fold of all publications and the breaking news of most TV news stations for over a month.”
Uh, no. It started showing up as a 3-paragraph “page 6er” in the NYT and WaPo on Jan. 21st. It has been page-1 for little more than a week.
“I have been begging for a White House response”
President Trump first addressed the “coronavirus threat” on January 6th. ‘Sorry you didn’t notice…
You, and the “media” were too busy wetting yourselves in excitement because we’d just taken out Soleimani and Pelousy(sic) was trying to pwn Mitch McConnell over Senate impeachment rules… Remember? If you don’t, I’m pretty sure everyone here can use George’s “search function” to help refresh your memory.
According to at least two of the people involved, COVID-19 has been a daily topic at Mr. Trump’s “daily briefing” since January 12th.
“The media has been begging for a White House response.”
No, the media is playing stupid people by making them think Mr. Trump has not responded, is not aware, and has damaged the medical community.
When Trump puts Vice-president Mike Pence in charge of the Corona virus task force, it is just another example of poor judgement. It seems to me that it would have been more reasonable to put the director of the NIH in charge, since in theory they would have the expertise to deal with such an outbreak!
Each time a big name pundit mouths the opinion that the virus is a fake, and everyone should buy the dips, the market seems to drop another 1000 points. Shock reactions, all.
The real reason the market is falling apart is imploding leveraged equity malinvestment and associated side bets. This is a symptom of credit deflation. Go to Hussman’s site and READ his analysis.
Whatever contingency plans you have to accomodate the current operating environment, it’s time for you to make your move, and keep your mouth shut about it.
Stay out of debt! The repo men and revenuers will always have jobs.
“his state run media”
OTFLMAO….. Mark… It just hit me.. call me slow but I just realized what you said…
Are these the same CRITTERS that have been attacking DJT day and night twenty four hours a day trying to destroy this administration for the last three and a half years LOL?
I think he is handling it absolutely the way it should be handled at this time…. give the man some credit.. On a more positive note.. I think if it gets to the point where we do have to have some serious concern that he will let all of us know that the situation has escalated to that point..Many would not.. they don’t have to but I think DJT has a heart and would..
You will know when it has gotten out of hand or they feel they have lost control over its spread when.. the first thing that will happen is breeding colonies will be shut down.. ( aka.. schools, big events, centers where masses meet..)
IF…. it has really gotten out of hand and your properties are in prime locations..you could have a scene similar to having.. a few govt. type people will walk in and say.. MARK..we will need your properties and at this point they have all been seized to be used as temporary hospitals and command centers by the order of the federal govt… have a nice day you can go home now.. Oh wait I see that you have a tesla.. we need adequate transportation for the general we will need that to.and .tomorrow you will be at the corner of third and cherry starting at 0630 to do sidewalk sweeping maintenance clean up any contagions on the sidewalk…….AT that point you will know that the situation is serious at that point.. you did realize they can do that didn’t you… if you have an extra ten thousand gallons of diesel fuel… and they need diesel fuel.. its theirs.. propane your pillow.. nice comforter.. what ever they need its theirs for the taking and no one out on the streets after sundown.. at that point you will know it is an out of control national disaster.. until then no news is good news.. business as usual..
here is a small portion of it..
“These proclamations give force to 470 provisions of Federal law. . . . [These] powers, taken together, confer enough authority to rule the country without reference to normal constitutional procedures. Under the powers delegated by these statutes, the President may: seize property; organize and control the means of production; seize commodities; assign military forces abroad; institute martial law; seize and control all transportation and communication; regulate the operation of private enterprise; restrict travel; and, in a plethora of particular ways, control the lives of all American citizens.”
I think there is about twenty thousand pages to the whole works.. give or take a few.. and that isn’t counting the related provisions.. in the end it basically says..
( YOUR AZZ AND EVERYTHING YOU HAVE IS OURS)
Be thankful we have a leader that has a heart and consience in office…. just imagine what it would be like if she who shall remain nameless was in office…
No point in naming names. You have taken the situation seriously since day one, because you have been there in PPE trying to handle victims of this or that. Others who were not taking the situation seriously have been turned, but the remaining holdouts need to grow up. The fairy tales aren’t going to be of any help, unless of course, they are sufficiently Grimm.
I am not worried about the virus, but I am worried about the huge supply chain effects and the turbulence within the financial markets – which were already way over leveraged and way over bought well before the virus hit. Now eyes turn to Central Banks which are essentially out of ammo. Not a lot of great options now.
Stephen: There is always an opportunity. You just have to look for it. It is not like this hasn’t happened before, & it will happen again. There are just more $000 in today’s world so it looks bigger. It is all based on Wall Street taking your money for themselves.
George,
Looks like this economy is going to need a ton of deficit stimulus. Would that Swampy Bear and the rest of the Greedy R’s hadn’t squandered all those trillions of national debt dollars on frivolities like stock buybacks when the economy was good.
Best, Mike.
Your obsession with stock buybacks makes it painfully clear you are clueless about them.
C’mon G – get a pair old man! They cant be that worn out and tired – hell look at Sir Mick -still laying em down like cord wood!
Tis the Season – to Catch A Falling Knife..
Thats right the most dangerous sport in the US – Buying this Pig till she squeals!
This Spoooz (SPY) has dropped to far to fast – I know I have been ringing the register for the past 3 days!
To repeat – dropped too far too fast – those gaps in the SPY chart are HUGE – and the market tends to fill gaps! Dead Cat bounce is due soonly – and 200 moving day average will/should catch/stop “knife” from falling any further.
Slowly picking up pieces on the cheap (Options) – the more blood, the merrier.
Hell G – even the mighty, vaunted Vanguard site went down this AM !
Oh my does the coot luv a good panic – and just think in several days the Margin Calls (House& Federal) will be DUE – what are they gonna sell to cover those Margin Cash Calls? UST’s – Precious Metals (paper) or Stocks ? Think those Il-Liquid Derivative Products on the Hedgies and Bank books gonna get marked to market anytime soon? Wait what I cant liquidate my Hedge Fund holdings ? Whats Gated Withdraws mean? whatwhatwhat?
Since the coot is a dyed in the wool wild eyed speculator I am putting on a SPY Strangle. Buying Puts Below Current Market Price and Buying Calls Above the Current Market Price cause U got to be in it to WIN IT!
We must NOT Forget that DEPRESSIONS are the only time in History, we see the TRUE state of our economy! The Rest of the Time, “its smoke and mirrors!”
Politicians instead of enacting laws for the benefit of society, pass laws that behave like “cattle prods” directing the masses to serve their self interests. There is a direct relationship between “cattle prods” and economic performance! This works most of the time, until it doesn’t.
I think alot of people are attempting to fight this virus with C. I normally order a bulk bottle of it online, and I prefer the Twinlab B-Complex Stress. It’s been unavailable for weeks now. No idea when it’ll be back on for sale again.
My indicators are starting to firm up as I look at them at 1:50 pm EST. Prime your trigger finger but don’t pull off any shots yet. It is Friday & the weekend is a wild card. If you go long at today’s close, it could be a big win on Monday. 2 hours left to decide.
Or we could drop like a stone and then rally Tuesday
Glenn Beck, on his radio show today, said he sold his stocks this week. He took the loss (actually a smaller gain) & called it a day. This is a bullish indicator.
I pulled the trigger on TQQQ @ 3:45 pm EST. Up @ $6 A share on closing. When the NASDAQ candlestick went green (current price greater than opening price) gave me the confirmation I was looking at.
“Great call” NC — I have respect for you following your own indicators. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a major up-move comming Monday. If not, then we’re in much bigger trouble than anyone can fathom, imho! May the spirits be with you.
As I noted in the report, we expect the 7% rally solution next week, lol
My respect to George as well for his work, though there are always just too many “ifs” within his reports, and that is reasonable for this kind of work also, imo.
However, when a major average kisses it’s 200-period MA one has to ‘put one’s hand into the fire,’ or be a spectator. .
The movie is the message. Isle of Dogs is about dog flu and the humans are afraid it will cross species. 100% infection rate is mentioned.
Also, the disease and cure are tools of two long standing rival groups, the dog lovers and cat lovers. The cat lovers control society.
Dogs (and a young boy) are put on an island for “quarantine” (death).
buy silver,,,,Mesosilver colliodial,,,kill the virus? I got mine, silver that is
LET THE HOARDING BEGIN! Local social media alerts made it all the way to Yahoo! news yesterday. Sams Club Honolulu runs out of toilet paper and bottled water. (Costco too.) Hawaii has always been sensitive to supply chain disruptions since the shipping strikes decades ago. Toilet paper ran out in the islands for a couple months back then, so that is the FIRST thing people stock up on now “in case of supply disruptions”.
Well I needed toilet paper anyway, so went prepper-shopping yesterday. Found TP at a local warehouse type store yet, but they were running low, and I saw almost everyone going out had TP in their cart. I also got lots of ramen noodles and canned (alleged) meat products like Spam and Vienna sausage. And a couple cases of bottled water, although my home water supply is good and secure… “just in case”.
Got several bottles of 1gm Vitamin C in stock, & should order some more. Also checked and repacked my stock of MMS liquid & Citric acid. MMS works on viruses well. I have personally stopped a flu infection overnight with MMS. But do your own due diligence. This is Not medical advice.
We can all likely agree that 50 tons of vitamin C pretty much qualifies as a megadose. We can also likely agree that trucking 50 tons of vitamin C, straight into Wuhan, in the face of the COVID-19 epidemic, qualifies as news.
The news media are not reporting this, or any other, significantly positive megavitamin news.
http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n13.shtml
50 tons of Vitamin C(or anything else) for a population of 11 million(est) is about 4.13 grams per person. Not that much.
two days worth
why the Rh negative inquiry?? Have you ever read the George guide stones???? There was what appeared to be a “date” that placed upon the stones and then later removed. However, it was not a date at all…. it was reference to a DNA sequence module for RH Negative..
SO there is 7.53 billion people on the planet. 15% of which is RH neg. IF you subtract the RH positive people from the population that leave 376,500,000 left on the planet. which fits within the guide stones rule of a world population less than 500 million.
as you know RH negative fights RH positive like a virus. To reduce the population to that level all they would have to do is release a natural or synthetic virus to make all the RH positive people sick and die.
hence what appeared to be a “Date” display upon the guide stones which just by coincidence cross refrenced to the RH negative DNA sequence module. back when I was studding DNA.I am sure it has been removed or scrubbed from the web since.
maybe the Corona Virus is or maybe it is not? The population reduction solution…. time will tell… if any of you happen to know if RH negative people are getting infected or if it is just RH positive…. please let me know… because if it is only RH Positive?????? the stocks don’t matter much… now do they. IF both are contracting the disease???? then im not so concerned.
I am negative… not sure if that is a good thing or not. :/
Thanks in advance.
And here I had thought those were put up to attract visitors ;-)
“it was reference to a DNA sequence module for RH Negative..”
I never thought of that.. and didnt realize it was on the guidestones..
RH negative..I’m not sure what.mine is but know some of my siblings have it.
The old theory that RH was the blood type of the original atlantans the blood of the gods of old. The rise of the old hyperborean race of kings .
Lol
Uhem, Georgia Guide stones…. but I did leave an extra I and A on my other post as you know I am thinking about my 10th post from my second… from time to time. lol
Andy… just think about it for a minute.. what if the coronavirus took the global population down to 400 thousand.
That would really screw up taxes.. I wonder if I sd should hold off.paying my first half of the house taxes just in case.lol lol lol my luck they would send out no neck brutis to collect . Lol lol.would the bank get nasty about getting payments if the employers just ceased to exist.
Cant assemble stuff if china shuts down the industrial complexes. Or transportation comes to a hault..
minnup.. all the FED workers copped it .. esquires dalio , moriarty and kern .. kern will tell you it hung in by a penny .. the other 2 will fork tongue you.. minnup .. remember I told yah george
Mr Ure,
DO you believe that pneumonia vaccines prevent pneumonia from all causes? Were that true they wouldn’t need to research a vaccine for this virus. You must know that they do not prevent viral pneumonia. Which makes the point that your while post here is merely a contrarian screed. Between South Korea, Italy, and that Japanese cruise ship it has been established that infections from this virus double every 3 days. You know the official Chinese numbers are bunk. So you know the cases aren’t increasing by 1.5% a day. What is going on here? This is my first time back here in a while, but I’ve read tour blog for 20 years, maybe longer? This disinformation is not the George Ure I used to read.
Ps- the death rate is in the 2.5 to 3.5 range when intensive hospital care is available, but higher when no such care is available. Every source predicts roughly 9% in that situation. Which would explain the rumored real Wuhan deathrate as well as the Iranian one
One certainty for sure, IMHO. W’re overwhelmed with too much information with respect to everything.