Two Data Points & What Goes Up

The day begins anew with Ure’s truly studying headlines, looking for signs of intelligent life on Earth.

The news that Bill Cosby is headed for “the box” and that a “Longtime prosecutor takes over Weinstein case in NYC” are nearly equally useless headlines, as we seek the actionable. Unless you’re a high-powered defense attorney, there’s no foreseeable way to monetize either of these events.

And with futures already down before the two morning data releases, it’s clear that peacewhich seems to be breaking out between the Korea’s – is not an easily monetized thing. In fact, pooled labor and friendlier relations could actually make appliances cheaper.

(Continues below)


That’s because the labor costs in North Korea are down more than a few standard deviations from the Rest of the World…so if they come on line, it could have a somewhat deflationary effect\.

The cost of labor (that goes into making goods) is the topic of this morning’s first data snip:  The Employment Cost Index.

Civilian Workers

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 2.7 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2018 compared with a compensation costs increase of 2.4 percent in March 2017. Wages and salaries increased 2.7
percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2018 and increased 2.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2017. Benefit costs increased 2.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2018. In March 2017, the increase was 2.2 percent.

Private Industry Workers

Compensation costs for private industry workers increased 2.8 percent over the year, a larger increase than the 2.3-percent increase in March 2017. Wages and salaries increased 2.9 percent for the current 12-month period and increased 2.6 percent in March 2017. The cost of benefits rose 2.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2018 and increased 1.9 percent in March 2017. “

While the markets ponder this one, the GDP report just out gives slow-motion economists a recent rear-view mirror into life here in fly-over country.

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the first quarter of 2018 (table 1), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.9 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The “second” estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 30, 2018.

As a picture:

The thing about the GDP is we can use it for Ure’s End of the World Index.

To calculate the UEWI, simply take the current )most recent) Public Debt to the Penny.  Treasury keeps this online with a two-day lag.

As of two days ago (*4/25) it was $21,059,600,102,296.72.  Because such large numbers aggravate hangovers, we just call it $21.06 trillion and you can keep the rest to start a hedge fund.

After wading through the data tables that accompany the GDP press release, you’ll find the most recent GDP is: $19.965.2 trillion.

The GDP divided into Public Debt to the Penny gives us a useful number.  If the GDP is larger than Debt, everything is hunky-dory.  But, as we become a Nation of Debtor Wage Slaves (like now if you’re not functional, yet) then that is bad.

As of this morning the Federal debt is 1.054830130276029 times the GDP.

We can calculate this number backwards, and evolve a view of how various political types have orchestrated the decline, but the real fault lays with Congress.  The fools on the Hill set the budget and since it’s been a political hack’s club, no one can say “No!” to passing out free lunches.

In the end, these are not free, but don’t bother anyone with the facts.  This is ‘Merica, after all.

Border News Watch

Since the crooks in Congress have dispatched with financial responsibility, it’s rather a trivial thing to have also destroyed America’s borders, especially with a street corner activist in the mix for 8-years.

Times have changed, however, so this weekend be watching for headlines to see how state and federal enforcement of the border works as a couple of days ago the story was Showdown ahead as migrant caravan heads for US-Mexico border.

This morning a scan for “caravan” reveals stories like “Migrant ‘caravan‘ gathers on US-Mexico border” and others giving the idea that they will be politely asking for asylum.

It would be dandy if they stood around politely waiting.  But I doubt it.

Call me skeptical, but I expect what will happen will be a few will try the legal entry route, but when it doesn’t work, the harder entry method (storming) will be attempted.  And that could lead to confrontation…and that, in turn, is what the latter-day Bolsheviks hope for…martyrs for their cause.  (Which is power and them in charge, as these things go.)

We are hopeful as ever.  But, at the same time, “not so open-minded that our brains fall out.”

By the way, on free lunches, go read “The lapsing of Finland’s universal basic income trial.”

Is Socialviks a word, yet?

Useful Data

With the majority of the news flow focused on these kinds of stories, we can now open our heads up to what to expect today and forward.

To begin with, we will be looking at the Office of the Special Counsel’s site right after the market closes.  Late Friday is a dandy time for Big News without panicking markets.

Latest Fed money creation data reveals M1 was being swelled by 7.2% on a three month basis annualized as of the end of February.  In last night’s data for the week ending April 16, that rate of increase in M1 was down to 4.2%.

This tells us the market won’t have too much in the way of free money to jack things up, although with Amazon upping Prime membership 20%, the FAANG stocks may save the day…at least until later in the month.

Amazon ad sale boom could challenge Google-Facebook dominance, says one of our feeds.

The Obama administration’s slamming of the coal industry is being reversed.  You can see the results in Virginia’s ports continue to lead US in surging coal exports.

Are people brushing their teeth less?  We ask because Colgate’s sales disappoint, shares fall.

Remember, we’ve had this conversation many times:  What will companies do when expansions into “emerging markets” disappoint and the domestic markets are at saturation?

People will only brush after every meal, or so, no matter what the ads push.

While the US partisan politics can’t seem to get anything right, at least the megalomaniacs of the European Union actually do get a few things right.

Like banning neonicotinoids that kill bees.  See EU moves to full ban pesticides that harm bees for more.

Can we invest in Epipens?  More bees might mean more stings…and we’re always looking for an investment angle.

History Lessons

Archaeologists May Have Found the World’s Largest Known Child Sacrifice Site in Peru.

No doubt it was cheaper than Ritalin to fix behavior issues…

UNESCO against Colombia’s commercial recovery of a shipwreck.  Colombia could use the gold, and “heritage” that has melt value…save a few specimens, sure.  But sticking UN noses in?  Which is what the unelected world government does at every chance.

TUD: The Totally Useless Department

Overflowing today:

The Royal Baby’s Name Announcement Has Sent the Internet Into a Frenzy.

A State in India Was Struck by Lightning More Than 36,000 Times in 13 Hours.  And?

I can’t stand any more…so off to work on Peoplenomics for tomorrow:  Prepping for Falling Incomes.

More Monday, so like the Texas sailor said, “Yawl come on back…”


author avatar
George Ure
Amazon Author Page: UrbanSurvival Bio:

19 thoughts on “Two Data Points & What Goes Up”

  1. George,

    While our American friends talk in trillions of dollars debt and deficit, we are still just working on billions here in Canada.

    Can you imagine understating your household expenses by 75% this year and 92% next year and keeping the banks away from the door?

    We have an election here in Ontario on June 7. The decision is between throwing out a government that has proven gross incompetence and wasted billions of dollars and electing one that has not yet proven it. I’m going for the latter.

    But we have a new name for the Royal baby. Rejoice and God save our gracious queen!

  2. I never get why folks say “community organizer” like it is a slur.

    Obama organized congregants of churches to take asbestos out of public housing units, to remove contaminants from public water, to bring jobs back to the community, to get summer jobs for poor kids while getting paid next to nothing.

    That sounds like righteous work to me. The world would be a better place if more people put their own interests aside for a spell and worked like Obama did to improve the lot of others.

    Wasn’t Jesus a community organizer?

    • Indeed? Iis it righteous work to get citizens riled up such that they demand even more free lunches?

      The Chicago Alinskyites have brought the Windy City to the bring of bankruptcy.

      Judging by the Iran deal, healthcare and more, I’m not sure just how any sane personal can view Obama as having done any particular good.

      Except as a state senator ensuring the money was there to found the carbon exchange – akin to wife-beating credits for the environment.

      Community organizers of the poltical stripe are just a different kind of radical trying to seize power

      • Any person who thinks Oblunder was so good for the USA needs to read Peter Schweizer’s latest book “Secret Empires”. Seems the big O’s buddies made out like bandits using the insider info he served them. The book is non-partisan as it describes how Mitch McConnell and his wife Elizabeth Chou got the goodies from her Chinese kin to the tune of $5 to $30 Million as a “gift”. This is also the author or “clinton cash” the book that started the whole investigation of the so-called “Clinton Foundation”.

    • The correct term for both “organizers” is “rabble-rouser”. They make problems where none exist, or make small problems into earth shattering ones.

      Asbestos is not a problem unless it’s flaking and can be inhaled. It’s much more of a problem for smokers, so roofers who smoke were at risk in former times. Obama was the single cause of racism moving from being a minor problem to being the main dialogue for 8 years. Coal is a good source of power and Obama tried to kill the industry. It’s also part of our GDP. We need a concensus on most things rather than two groups of people who can’t even understand each other. No program or idea is legitimate if it doesn’t recruit people toward working in their own best interest. Few will participate and others will actively oppose it.

      • I believe you 100% when you blame the black guy for an increase in racism.

        George – if wanting to make your crib a safer place by having the landlord remove asbestos or contaminants from drinking water is ‘demanding even more free lunches’ I’m not sure what to say.

        I guess poor people should be happy for the asbestos and poisoned water that comes along with section 8 housing, huh?

        Thank you sire may I have some more poison for being poor.

      • So, Wave, why did you inject Mr. Obama’s ethnicity into a discussion which was not about the color of his skin, but instead was about the content of his character?

      • Wavecrave it is insulting to act as if poor people are the only ones affected by asbestos. All people have been affected and exposed, the product was used everywhere.

      • Ray – raising Obama’s race is most certainly relevant when responding to a comment that blames Obama for an increase in racism. But you;d have to know the difference between ethnicity and race to understand that.

        CD – we’re talking about section 8 housing. By definition that’s poor people. Please explain how working to remove asbestos from section 8 housing, which Obama takes crap for as delivering a “free lunch”, is insulting.

      • Not buyin’ it, Wave. Mr. Obama is the child of a black man and a white woman. To have had issue, the black man and white woman must necessarily have been of the same race.

        Blacks, reds, whites, and yellows are not different races. They are different ethnicities of the same race, that being homo sapiens.

        Mr. Obama’s ethnicity has nothing to do with whether he and his policies fostered an increase in ill-will between various ethnicities, either within or without the United States. His suck-ass domestic policy in regards to “race” was not because of the ratio of tannin to melanin in his skin pigmentation, but because his policies sucked.

  3. The information takeaway from both Cosby and Weinstein, along with the “war on drugs”/”war on sex” is that there’s really a war on joy.

    There’s no safe way to ask for or engage in any adult pleasures of sex and/or drugs. That includes marriage, cohabitation, or trying to get sex with anyone, regardless of loving intentions. The statute of limitations has been breached and Cosby has been convicted based on hearsay from 30 years ago. The worst thing is that sharing drugs was considered normal in the ’70’s.

    I don’t say that what Cosby/Weinstein did was right, but after 30 years, it’s way past time to just let it lie. Taxpayers will spend a fortune to punish these people who could simply be ostracized and left alone. Both have already lost reputations and careers, and the fight goes on using my dime.

    We have to have a legitimate dialogue started on how to legitimately promote sex and drugs in a way that will give hope to some and joy to all. Irresponsibility is the real culprit in both areas. Selling sex and intimate companionship should be legal. Involuntary or underage trafficking should not be.

    • Sorry, NM, and you have my respect. This is not that. If you want a pass for free sex and drugs, then you have to understand the context of power back than AND now. You’ve just acknowledged a 40 plus year range of abuse do to the perps power. Being of an experienced age during these times I know too well the sexual assaults and misappropriation of sex first hand. It took ALL this time for Cosby to be brought to this moment and we will find out soon whether he goes to jail, Weinstein, however, will never see a day in jail, he is too busy divesting himself of his ASSets and covering his BUT! What they both have done is terribly wrong, criminal, immoral, and soul destroying to their victims while priming their pump of perversion. We can only move forward. There have always been manipulative females and all males should be warned, however raping and plundering females due to power strokes will never be legal. Any man can be accused of rape the morning after even from a consenting female from the night before, read Julian Assange’s account of his contoversial consenting sexual activity. Yet men should get to know the woman better than a one night stand and not leave themselves so easily open to blackMale. Let’s think of another great public dichotomy, The Don. His ex wife, the first, claimed he raped her in their marital arrangement. She later rescinded that charge. The storm had a consensual relationship with him and has done her best to profit off of it which includes further reputation detereoriation for the Don courtesy of George Soros who is backing the stormy horse. Buyer beware or in other words, nothing is as it seems but 62 women in Cosby’s case makes more than a quorum.

  4. YUMC, my China indicator has been strong with the Korean peace talks. YUMC predicted peace in Korea. Everyone likes chicken & tacos & pizza. It is the largest restaurant in China.

    • George…. I’m ready to tell you my secret now!!

      (I see dumb people they are everywhere.)

      I wonder if a person could have a telethon to raise money to provide a lobotomy for dumb people…I think a guy could really raise some serious cash for a good cause. Oh wait..dam didn’t they already do a mind control thing with frequency to control peoples mind..


    The following is disappointing

    Judging by the Iran deal, healthcare and more, I’m not sure just how any sane personal can view Obama as having done any particular good.

    • I don’t have my doc choice – promise broken.
      Iran still has a kick-ass nuke program. Not only a promise but $4.3 billion wasn’t it?
      Fool me once…twice….

Comments are closed.

Toggle Dark Mode