Huh?
You mean you don’t see that?
Apparently,you missed the stern lecture I issued to Zeus the Cat Thursday afternoon.
While chasing wadded up versions of this morning’s column that weren’t cutting it, we got to talking about how the market is likely to put in a double top before collapsing next week.
“How you figure, Fatso?” he asked, dodging my foot that had taken offense at his surly attitude.
“Buy the rumor, sell the news, you idiot Cat! Don ‘t you pay attention to how the world of finance works? Everyone KNOWS that the democraps will win and the republicons will lose, but regardless of who “wins” this is a Buy the Rumor market right now.”
“LOL…so you, Tubby, are going to lose your ass on those Disney puts for December, right?”
“Keep an eye on that right foot, Zeus…it’s gets a mind of its own when you talk that way.”
Oh, sure, Zeus (nickname: Zeke) had told me to hang in with my long term call option collection on the S&P…but who listens to financial advice from a cat, right? Especially a black one and on Halloween….
“Hand me your mouse, Tubs, I just ate mine.”
Uh…
“Thanks…now look here: See how the Velocity of Money at M2 has failed to recover?
And you know what this all means, right?”
“No.”
“Stupid humans – we wasted our time trying to domesticate you. No amount of imported under class, diseases, or new wars are going to fix the fact that deflation is digging in. Watch gold’s monthly beat down. That’s the news Tubbo…”
Crap. I hate it when he’s right. But markets that rally this much before an election are invariably wrong. So while we have the predictable slew of stories this morning about how the democraps will lose badly, it seems more likely due to the price of free lunches and low information voters, that the democraps will win and the market will promptly implode. Ergo, my puts.
Of course once this happens, the groundwork is already laid for battles over voting integrity. I’m sure you’ve seen the stories out of Illinois and Maryland about how votes for this party went to that party.
All of which circles back to something we hold to be self-evident: If you want to really control things, go to law school.
I should have skipped business school and gone into law…but I’ve always had difficulty passing a bar (rim shot).,
The Global Money Rip
Of course there is an alternate reality to all this: It could be today’s massive rally to come might be attributed to Japan deciding to join the Print of the Month Club.
Maybe they yen for an economic recovery, too. Their market was over 40,000 back in 1989…which means they have stupidly listened to the same political hack-talk for 25-years. Japan’s ability to swallow political crap is really a prototype for guess which large nuclear-innovating country near you?
Meantime, Dow futures are up about 200. You can fool, it seems, most of the People, most of the time.
Another Cruel Economic Joke
Bureau of Economic Analysis report out this morning on Personal Income, savings and what have you:
Personal income increased $22.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $15.7 billion, or 0.1 percent, in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $19.0 billion, or 0.2 percent. In August, personal income increased $50.7 billion, or 0.3 percent, DPI increased $37.5 billion, or 0.3 percent, and PCE increased $58.7 billion, or 0.5 percent, based on revised estimates. Real DPI increased less than 0.1 percent in September, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in August. Real PCE decreased 0.2 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.5 percent.
Of course the numbers only work if you count paying down a credit card as savings and such…
Personal outlays — PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments — decreased $14.5 billion in September, in contrast to an increase of $63.4 billion in August. PCE decreased $19.0 billion, in contrast to an increase of $58.7 billion. Personal saving — DPI less personal outlays — was $732.2 billion in September, compared with $702.0 billion in August.
The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 5.6 percent in September, compared with 5.4 percent in August.
So here is the game: You have to read through half the press release to find the REAL PCE and Disposable Personal Income – adjusted for inflation which is the only thing that matters:
Real DPI — DPI adjusted to remove price changes — increased less than 0.1 percent in September, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in August. Real PCE — PCE adjusted to remove price changes — decreased 0.2 percent in September, in contrast to an increase of 0.5 percent in August.
Purchases of durable goods decreased 1.9 percent , in contrast to an increase of 2.3 percent. Purchases of motor vehicles and parts accounted for most of the decrease in September, and accounted for most of the increase in August. Purchases of nondurable goods decreased 0.3 percent in September, in contrast to an increase of 0.2 percent in August.
Purchases of services increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent. The price index for PCE increased 0.1 percent in September, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent in August.
The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in September, the same increase as in August. The September price index for PCE increased 1.4 percent from September a year ago. The September PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.5 percent from September a year ago.
All of which means what? Well, when prices are going up by CPI going up 1.7% and Social Security increased also pegged at 1.7% for the coming year, what it all boils down to is our lifestyles are going to be coming down because the tax rates are going up. Something’s gotta give and that’s — you!
Go to the Circus: Vote Tuesday.
Market is still up 160 when I looked and gold down a whopping $32 bucks when I looked…and my outlook of gold under $1,000 remains in place.
Putin Has Gas
But he’s willing to pass some in the direction of Ukraine if they pay $2.2 billion worth of bills.
(Sometimes, my writing stinks. Other times its more silent but deadly…)
Supposedly, the deal has been signed, but we’ll wait to see the details flushed out a bit.
Meantime, Russia is raising interest rates to support the ruble.
Political Correctness Watch
I’d ask are we crazy as a country, but that’d be too self-evident. Beer on the side says Buddhists aren’t covered, nor Baha’is. 50-50 on whether Christianity and Judaism get equal time, but wonder if those classes are taught in Spanish?
Own the curriculum and you own the future, the John Birch Society warned of the early day liberalistas…and they were mocked.
Ferguson in the Wings
As business owners are still adding up the lost revenue thanks to the rioting in Ferguson, we also note local media have schools asking for the Grand Jury announcement to be made on a Sunday so as not to screw up classes and such.
Of course we all know the ideal announcement time would be in the middle of a driving freezing rain…weather that tends to keep people indoors…