Yeah, I know – didn’t think I could read, did you? Surprise! A cool economic/business book review down the page. But, it’s really a huge day for Climate and Trade. So let’s start on those:
The Sun’s Going Out
One of the biggest “Social Monetization’s” afoot in today’s f/u’ed world is this whole Climate panic. Do humans contribute? Yes. Are humans solely responsible? No.
Around here, we stick to raw data. And the freshest is the NOAA Solar Cycle Progression chart:
There are two major deficiencies with this chart.
First, it does not go back to the previous cycle (23). If it did, the left axis would not be scaled to a maximum of 120. Instead, it would top at 240. That’s because Solar Cycle 23 topped in August of 2000 at 236.7 (data table, see 2000 07 date). Cycle 24 hit 174.6 in February of 2014 and we’ve been sliding downhill ever since. Which, if the coffee has hit, makes Cycle 24 a pathetic, wimpy, warmed-over, half-sized cycle.
The second chart deficiency is that although the NOAA projections are here – and you might splice the historical and projected data. Thats the reality, We live in an easily jerked-around world of social media crooks who stampede ignorant people to act in stupid ways and belief wrong-headed computer models. Putting bad ideas in a model doesn’t improve thinking. But it sure cranks out “projections” and let’s all fall down and worship those, shall we?
Were there more smart (or at least Excel-competent) people in the world, the forward projections (table here) would show The Sun’s output going down all the way to the end of 2022. No sign of a turn – yet.
Color me skeptical of warming. There’s a reason to fear cooling more than of the “nuclear winter” sort that would follow any regional nuke conflict (think India-Pakistan for one). We’d call this latter an exogenous climate driver. You can’t make intelligent bets on what are black swans or left-field events. But you can bet on endogenous or “internally arising” climate implications..
Since the peak of Cycle 24 was February of 2014, we would expect the next cycle (25) to peak roughly 11.5-years after that. August of 2025 sound about right?
Unfortunately, the Best and Brightest are admitting (in there data tables here that no one seems to read but us) that the Sun won’t even be starting to wake up to Cycle 25 until sometime (maybe?) in 2023 Sure, the solar cycle is not symmetrical but no sunspots to something “climate-driving” seems unlikely by 2025. Worst Case: the Sun has entered a periodic extended minimum. Think Maunder, famine, disease, die-offs and that cheerful stuff.
This brings us to global famine. Because not only does the Sun’s output have a hand in the periodic warming and cooling of Earth, but the intensity of the light arriving from OId Sol changes how food is grown.
Ever hear of Ug99 virulent wheat rust? No? Ignorance comes from playing video games instead of digging into understanding the world, doesn’t it? Take off the Oculi and spread out extended solar minimum and a grain supply-killing wheat rust variant and maybe a side of IndoPak nuke-winter and share your results. I’m giving you mine.
To vastly simplify, when the sun “goes yellow” which we’re into now in the minimum, plants tend to grow big stalks other factors being equal. When we’re at the solar cycle top, plants flower a lot more. That’s because there’s more UV and the sun looks whiter. Remember my huge hydroponic tomato build this year? Stalks and stems all over hell and gone. Miniscule fruiting. Make that fooding.
Scary stuff, right? But that isn’t what makes this a Huge Climate Day. This is…
The Trump administration is following through on a campaign promise. They have filed the one-year notice to remove the US from the Paris Climate Accord that Barack Obama committed us to. (I’d argue illegally so.). A year from now we’ll be out from under that. See the Competitive Enterprise Institute’s take on Paris.
If you’re a brain-washed climateer, this story should have been a two-fer. Not only could it be cited as evidence of Trump being “anti-environment” but also a reason to hate the man in general. Which, during a questionable impeachment drive in the mid-uprising digital coup, we would have expected the complicit MSM to be all-in with.. (These “climate victims” are all about double standards…a cornerstone of good victimhood and liberalism. Obama could “make up climate: commitments but Trump can’t be allowed to implement existing US laws. See how this is played?)
Somewhere between extremists on both sides, you see the Sun data, look at the delayed impacts of solar output on Earth’s climate, and track yields in worldwide agriculture… You might conclude, as I have, this could go either way. Erring on the side of caution (because planetary die-off’s are ugly, we see significant risk of global cooling and a reulting decline of crop production.
If the latter case builds, then you’d support the Trump move to trash the Paris Accord. Because as Cycle 25 shows up late for work, food output could be dropping. Even a small outbreak of wheat rust terrorism and global mandatory diets, here we come.
Then there’s seasonal variation…Not a good year in the corn belt. See here:
OK, enough detail and thinking tools. Don’t mean to turn this into a Peoplenomics report. But those are heavily data-based, as is this morning’s discussion.
How about we move on to Trade?
Trade War Impacts
Meantime, we told you to plan on China trying to “renegotiate all trade deals” and that the Phase One hype could not be trusted. Well, here we go (try to look surprised): “China presses Trump to remove more tariffs in ‘phase one’ trade deal.”
The only question for us is when does collapse begin? See where “The ‘mother of all bubbles’ could blow up the economy if profits don’t improve, warns Blackstone strategist“?
Still, after the trade data, Dow futures are up 82 and Bitcoins are hovering around $9,300 trying to figure out where next…
In the Shorts
Most of the rest of what passes for news warrants only one-liners:
An agriculture note here: Did you know 723 banks and credit unions are involved in the emerging marijuana industry here in the US? Or that there’s a pause while we away national rule clarification?
Overall Home Prices: CoreLogic Reports September Home Prices Increased by 3.5% Year Over Year. Social Security increases won’t even come close to covering it…
Pet Trivia: Bloodhound goes faster still at 491mph. Need impact bumpers now, don’t they?
Skip Mexico in Vacation Plans: 9 Americans, Including 2 Newborns, Killed In Ambush By Mexican Gangsters. Need another reason to finish a real wall?
Now the Book Review
The alternate title to this would be something along the lines of “How an award-winning 15-year old gem and mineral museum founder writes a kick-ass business book…”
First, Two Important Disclosures:
- This is as serious-as-a-heart-attack business book. In terms of style, somewhere between a young Tony Robbins and whatever a 15-year Warren Buffett would have crafted as a shareholder letter.
- Elaine and I loved the book; so much that we now own several copies. The grandchildren will get them for Christmas.
Yeah, I know…Tyreman, Tyreman…any relation to Chris Tyreman of “The Chronicle Project?” Uh-huh…sure is. His son.
Now the story part: Judah is all of 15-years old. But what makes the book great is that besides founding a museum (which is a good story itself) it also pays off with details that go into profitable managment thinking skills and how to make things happen.
Does it work? Oh yeah. Due to expansion of his gem and mineral museum Judah’s his own, personal net worth is already north of $150,000 (Canadian).. Know anyone else, age 15, who’s even close?
To put that into perspective, since he’s just entering high school, Tyreman Lite’s built a net worth that may rival some of his teachers. “Who should be schooling who?” we wonder.
Even more to our liking, Judah’s not putting it out as an ebook. At least, not yet. Because he’s convinced that one reason more young people aren’t successful – and why the world lacks innovation and invention – is precisely because young people his age are spending too much time on their phones. “Let ’em read a book.” Goos idea.
Which is why Judah is turning into a business powerhouse. Most kids his age are dabbling in drugs, wasting texting time in class and majoring in slacking. See it? The difference between and innovator and losers.
Didn’t look though the index on Amazon, yet? Yeah – Judah’s real serious – throughout the book – on innovating. Early on he writes :
“An innovator is something that people mistakenly call an entrepreneur.
An entrepreneur is usually someone who starts a business. An innovator is someone who sees problems and finds ways to fix them.
So not all innovators are entrepreneurs, but all successful entrepreneurs are innovators”
Whether you make it to Saskatchewan to visit his Sesula Mineral and Gem Museum (and Rock Shop), think about the young people you know (and grandchildren). Think about how you worry about them amounting to something more than “phone-heads.”
The young Tyreman’s FB page offers a “Welcome to the Real World…”
All this grew out of Judah’s 2016 KickStarter campaign. This wasn’t a project “mommy and daddy: handed him. Ground up, it’s him.
Now the why behind the exceptional plug for the book.
Most young people, if they’ve still not answered “what I want to be when I grow up” by age 20 are at risk. If they haven’t been presented with a life-path they love, it’s a kind of parenting failure, in my estimation. Get ’em excited and that’s the future.
Sometimes, sure, takes longer. My son, for example, took almost 20 years to figure out that being a firefighter/EMT could be a lifetime of excitment.
Every so often, when you see a young person with a glint in their eye and “going for it” it’s useful to study their method. Judah has written his down. And both of us, Elaine and I, have gotten good counsel from the book. That’s a serious endorsement.
My favorite part? The simple debunking of Flat Earthers, in an example around page 84, it wraps up with exactly with why success seems to be “on vacation” for most:
The flat Earth theory dies with a crayon, and just a note, this was not the only thing my sister Avi came up with using a crayon that showed the theory could not work.
Will they listen? No. Why? They want to be right. Its not about what IS right, its about “I’m smarter then you”.
Its about EGO, its about false prestige.”
Hell of a grown-up business book for a 15-year old.
Write when you get rich, (He did…)