Three Key Market Variables

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You get a short report this morning because I am working on the ChartPack for tomorrow’s Peoplenomics.com subscriber report.

What’s become apparent to me is that there are a number of metrics that definitely impact business, which are not encompassed in traditional stock market technical analysis.

I would propose the information homogeneity, speed of information, and settlement speed are more drivers of the markets that some of “the Greeks” calculated from internal stock ratios.

(Continues below)

 

There’s also not a number that adequately captures  competitive returns very well.

Right now, Ure’s of the view *(as proposed many years back) that a blow-off in markets would become more pronounced as interest rates rose in the bond market.

Helps to know that the price of bonds goes down as their yield goes up.

Therefore, when the bond rates are rising – and there’s some rumble that two more interest rate hikes will come in 2018 – there will be some disintermediation.  Simply:  money will flow out of bonds to the higher yields offered by stocks.

Stocks, don’t forget, are up 30 percent (roughly, on average) since Trump went to Washington.  Bonds?  They seem to have been stuck down in the 2.3-2.4 percent range (basis the 10-Year Treasury).

This morning, though, we see how bonds were peeking over 2.6 percent.  That means the price of bonds is headed down and “hot money” – which always flows to the highest returns – is likely to be flowing into stocks because of…well, greed!

Meantime, Ure’s crackpot theory on informational discontinuities, suggests that 24-hour markets have served well to decrease market volatility.  This is why – in Peoplenomics tomrorow – we will be talking about the comparative rate of increase between 1929 blow-off and the present.

Back then, information discontinuities were much higher.  Many market players were only able to get stock quotes from the late afternoon or morning newspaper.  And it was like point and click: Orders were given to a broker, consolidated, sent to New York when physical runners (not tablets) were prompting the floor action.

Our present thinking is that the present rally m at still have a long way up, but more on that tomorrow.

The Nest Nature of Elliott’s Coins

So far, knock on wood,, our analysis of Bitcoins using trend channels and Elliott wave theory has been relatively good guidance compared with the BTFD (buy the frigging dips) crowd which is usually unable to see clearly because they are mainly emotionally invested in their financial decisions.

Our longer-term outlook was that Bitcoin may be heading for $868, now that the critical support region has been reached.

This morning we offer some other things to think about, but as always this is not financial advice – only market observations.

The key thing is that when we look at Bitcoin since the December 17 All Time High, we have an obvious wave 1 down.  Wave II up took us to the 17,250 level.  And then we collapsed down to three days ago and a few minutes in the 9,600 range.

Remember:  Elliott waves are usually nested.  And so while the big picture suggests $868, now that we have begun Wave III down, this is a nested wave which is also subject to analysis.

This means we can grok where the III could take us since wave (1) down of the larger III down bottomed earlier this week.  This results in a “bounce from here” target of perhaps 14,327.  As of this morning, the BTCs are on their way to that ‘hood trading around $11,930.

We then look to the third wave down, and a nice Fibo 0.618 decline overall would set up the wave (4) bounce.  And after that, we’d go down and finish the collapse to the $465 to $868 kind of range.

But we shall see.  This only works because humans still trade the same regardless of what it is they are trading.  Which is a weird notion when you think about it.  It’s why social media can turn into a lynch mob and such and lots of other things that we won’t speak of on the free side of things for now.

Amazon Roulette

Of all the cities on the list for Amazon’s HQ2, we favor Dallas as the “right spot.”  It has a bigh-ass airport, it has direct flights to Europe, it’s in the middle of the country.  Real estate is cheaper than almost anywhere.  Taxes are low.  Texas is growing.  It’s further north than Austin – which seems a more spendy choice on the basis of fuel and shipping prices.

The northern Virginia area we’d judge to be OK, too, but it’s a clear loser on a tax basis.  Remember, Uretopia Ranch is less than 90 minutes from Dallas, is rural, and the whole 30 acres of tree farm can be yours today for $300K including tools and equipment.  In other words, Texas is stupidly cheap.  Property tax on all that (*since we’re ag exempt)?  $681 this year.  Nutty.

The property taxes (and trajectory) of Northeast States is being discovered by outfits like The Hill which is quoting the website http://www.richstatespoorstates.org/.

Suddenly, the idea of taxigration (tax policy immigration) comes into focus.  We figured that out a dozen years back and have so far been able to avoid the rush to rural.

If you flip over there (http://www.richstatespoorstates.org/) , you’ll see Texas may seem “poor” but with no public pension strangeholds (think California and Illinois) the odds of Amazon moving and finding itself at the center of a public pension “tax shakedown” are considerably smaller.

There’s an international version of “luring big business” going on as seen in France’s Davos? Macron hosting 140 CEOs in investment push.

Street Talk

Dow futures are pointing to a hundred point up near the open…suits us fine

Oh, and listen to the whine of poverty in the Street in Wall Street traders brace for meager paychecks as bonus season approaches.  Yeah…welcome to the planet the rest of us are on.

Shutdown? Shut Up

Your Social Security won’t stop because of a government shutdown, and federal workers of the Deep State will still be paid – even if they don’t go to work, so all this crap about a “government shutdown” is horse puckey.

Not to the whining mainstream media though: Futures climb as investors shrug off government shutdown fears.

Anything for eyeballs – and to give the Deep Staters free time off – which they won’t work, but do get paid for at least in past budget deals.

Worthy of Note

Allergy Sufferers: Delta Air to tighten onboard emotional support animal requirements.

New Trump Office Will Protect ‘Conscience and Religious Freedom’ Rights of Doctors.

Swimmingly Putin: Bare-chested Putin takes dip in icy lake for Epiphany.  And how many nominal Christians do you know willing to do this?  Putin is acting seriously Christian.

The Obama Economy follow-up from Reuters: Exclusive: Most U.S. states lost coal mining jobs in 2017 – data

CNN’s Trump Bash du jour: Artists mark one year of Trump as president.  (File under bleeding hearts, empty brains.)

One way to cut “climate change” – China’s Birthrate Dropped Last Year Despite Beijing’s Relaxation of the One-Child Policy.

The nuclear clubhouse report: India’s Ballistic Missile Test Is a ‘Direct Threat,’ a Chinese State-Owned Newspaper Says.  WTF, like turnabout isn’t fair play, you PLA Lop Nur types?

21 thoughts on “Three Key Market Variables”

  1. “Amazon Roulette”

    I think it would be a good idea to buy land in the general area of the HQ as soon as the new HQ is announced.

  2. I think Amazon will move to a state that the approximately 50,000 employees with Democrat voting tendencies could make a difference. Colorado has already been flipped to purple from red. I think Texas is a desirable political target and particularly Dallas. Converting Texas and it’s large electoral college is very much on the Democrat radar.

  3. Re: China’s birthrate drop

    Anthropology shows that as societies rise in overall wealth, their birthrates decline based on “everything’s a business model”. Increases in wealth promotes migration away from poor, rural farming to employment in cities. Large families are not needed there for free labor. As parents get wealthier, having many children to support them in old age are also not needed.

    Japan’s society today is not producing enough children to replace parents so population is in decline. It will be fascinating to watch how their capitalist system deals with shrinkage.

  4. George,

    You did a wonderful job of introducing “Amazon Roulette” and the desirability of the Dallas Metro. Then you hopped to Virginia for comparison and right back to Dallas, then bait/switched to marketing Uretopia!

    Great technique!

  5. A couple of observations –

    First, when you mention traders being ’emotionally’ involved in stocks – I think ‘financially’ as basically for some it’s one and the same . . . some people are so attached to their wealth that they are kin to King Midas. (I had a relative like that – it affects all parts of their life.)

    Secondly – the dispute between China and India . . . this really is something to watch as it has been ‘in play’ for a very long time. I bet other countries will get involved if this heats up. (Hint – other places have ‘the bomb’. Not trying to be cute, but this could be very serious.)

  6. Oki Risa scribed Alice talk about this planetary object coming in from outer space what’s the name of it Elliott’s wave I don’t know.

    Did you see how about that stuff about those they said, it’s coming in and firing down on people people hiding we have a galactical war going on like in Hawaii there they have sounded off that thing that says hey we got two part Southern there’s no way what they said could happen about there being an accident too put on a DEFCON 1 because it takes you have to go through five procedures and then you have two keys and they’re eight foot apart there’s no way that’s going to be an accident so there’s more of your MSM lying asses is my French satellite said it was didn’t work but that was a government satellites over a hundred miles away from Hawaii.

    There was a fishing or boat tear that was out there like a hundred miles away and they saw this thing go through the sky and get hit and destroyed which means our satellite system which we do have a train of that stuff going on but anyway so we had the means from from the outer perimeter of the sky out there to destroy things that are coming up even from submarines and because of the remote viewing were able to detect those things before they even happen and then prepare ourselves for that but the Deep State Ciara submarine or two and that was their plan but since the military or at least a good side of the military and the good side of the CIA and FBI and other organizations are are and the opposite sides the bad side is is fighting the good side so anyway this.

    This happened again in Japan and declared a DEFCON 1 thing going on there and that was detert also so we have even with help from our friends and this is the age for everything to change a little bit.
    So go ahead and invest $50 into Bitcoin what are you going to lose 50 bucks it’s the new money system cuz the money system is going to crash down here for too long and either United States will put out its own new money and get rid of the Fed or.

    We have to go to digital anyway like I said they’ve already got it and outer space on our deep secret space programs they don’t carry dollar bills around It’s All Digital if your scan some way or another and you’re okay for some more tokens to do whatever it is you need to do.
    Saw with the hundred some million people we have on Mars and we have people throughout the solar system and then we have people that’s beyond our solar system and it’s all compartmentalize so they can’t know about each other’s part that they’re doing and here we are on this little big old Planet Little Big O Planet I like that we’re just trying to exist and will the Rothschild Federal Reserve be taken down well they’ll still exist like I said there’s a good and bad you’re never going to get rid of the bad and you’re never going to get rid of the good looks like artificial intelligence that’s out there and you have to be aware of it you don’t want to completely over take your life because you can get that old Terminator what’s his name Arnold Schwarzenegger coming at you.
    Anyway I’m a big spender man I bought a whole lot of Bitcoin I tell you I really shouldn’t have bought that much I bought .0042 of bitcoin that’s about 50 bucks worth yippee I’m a big spender I tell you that’s why when it gets down to 8000 I’ll buy some more and if it gets down to four five six hundred like George is talking about I’m just going to have to spend another $50 there and buy some more lots of laughs. I don’t know some people say it’s an investment I think it’s a good game to play though people come out of the woodwork saying this and that then we have people like George just got the Elliott wave program down pretty Pat a lot of people believe in him and it so I’m just going to have to fall asleep believe in it for a little while they’re see where it goes and if it doesn’t go we’ll just have to make up some new rules and laws and regulations of belief systems won’t we.

    May all beings be lovingly fulfilled so be it.

    Don’t let one thing get you down go around.

    Yeah I know thoughts have wings and sometimes they become things I think we’ve all experienced that so be careful what you wish or think for you just might get it but the thing is we just don’t know until we experienced it what the consequences of our thoughts are.

    Again may all beings be lovingly fulfilled so be it

    • George if I’m alone about this Elliott wave stuff you’re going to have to think of me as your kitty cat out there you know and come up with some wild wild ways to teach that cat on the other hand I mean the could be a lot of money in that you know that’s how many cats are in the world that would like to learn about it the Elliott wave they probably all would that way they can all have a nice tuna dinner every night. LOL

    • CABASSOUS

      Einstein or Tesla or George Ure.

      What could either of those three do to help that community straighten up and fly right and is it true what you say how about people defecations creating problems yes that’s why we have people in nursing home and if they aren’t changed they get a break out some say it’s heat some say it’s bed bugs but it comes from the rectum if it’s not changed it spreads throughout the direct area in contact

    • Let’s face it, white folks have a death wish — and those who don’t are classified as NAZI ‘-) imho, of course.

  8. In order to attract the maximum from the minimum amount think AOL they made it simple .
    think coinbase they’re using the same colors that AOL used in their beginning blue and white if you’re going to do this Elliott wave thing on your website or someone just click it and make it big you no big thing there Elliott waves and then make it simple so simple that even stupid people even Arnold Schwarzenegger Terminators can understand it.
    BLUE and WHITE.
    And then when you really got some hard if it’s just put it in Big RED.

    RED WHITE BLUE .IN 50 different cases or points of view.

    CABASSOUS

  11. I was shocked when I asked a friend to come visit. I’d pay the airfare.
    They said not right now. The reason .. Their passport wasn’t updated and in the PNW where they are located they need a passport to travel within the usa..

    • not sure if tsa accepts much else…but yeah, pnw people are grist for the machine, no doubt about it

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