Housing: From Smoke to Smolder

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Just out:

NEW YORK, MARCH 27, 2018 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for January 2018 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.2% annual gain in January, down from 6.3% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.0%, no change from the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.4% year-over-year gain, up from 6.3% in the previous month.

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Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In January, Seattle led the way with a 12.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with an 11.1% increase and San Francisco with a 10.2% increase. Twelve of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending January 2018 versus the year ending December 2017.

Picture for that?

In 2009 an Elliott 1 down, then 2 up begins.  You can see the (I), (ii), and (iii) up, now is this a (a) down (b) up or…. the mind reels.

So do futures…under 100 up, now…

This Day in ’29? Dow Dropped 1,153.19

Comparing the present period in markets with 1929 is a very dicey proposition because, well, times are different.  But on  what in our work allowed us to accurately call the major drop last Thursday will have us going short (likely) today, after we the past the “amateur hour.”

That’s because on our “equivalent day” in 1929 the Dow fell from 326.61 to 305.85.  That’s a drop of more than 6% in a single day.  Yeah – ravings of a wild man, but the same forecasting approach suggested a gain in the market Monday of 1.7%.  In reality, it was up 2.84%, but we still managed a nice day-trade for lunch money.

The move was simple enough:  When the Dow had popped up more than 500 points, I went short with one of the ETF triples.  And when it looked to lose downside potential, I bailed.  To be sure, it was a very small trade with a 1.6% gain.

But if you compound 1.6% 100 times in a year?  Works out to about 4.89 times your nest egg in a year.

But such day trading is NOT recommended.  People can (and do – like me) lose money on such trades.  Still, just to show you the magic of compounding your investment?  If you made 1 mere one percent per day and could do that day after day for 250 trading days in a year?

You’d have twelve times your money.  That’s the attraction of day trading – fast money, big money.  (Also fast losses, big losses…)

But, let’s get back to this picture this morning:  Here’s some 1929 data for you – made possible by our Peoplenomics.com subscribers: Notice the Dow and dates – and you can do the percentages.

As you can see, the correlation is not perfect – in fact far from it.  BUT it’s a good enough template that I was able to play the short side of the market and still make my lunch money on a day the market went up almost than 670 points.

I don’t know about you, but this seems useful.  Trading version of “snow plow stakes” perhaps.

Which gets us to the headlines to be scanning for today.  Since the “equivalent day”  (today or tomorrow) saw a drop of 1,151 points last time around, a nice decline could show up any minute.

In the short time from my first look at the futures (+180 at 5 AM) to my 7 AM check, the futures were +120…so the depth of confidence just isn’t there.

Now let’s talk about why.  Here are some kinds of headlines that could drive a big tanking in markets today:

Swampatics

Paul Ryan is on the verge of resigning over how the games are being played in Washington, now.  His office says no – it’s a lie/fake news.  Gators are turning on one-another in the swamp.

The Olivia Pope scenario keeps coming to mind.  This takes some explaining.  Did you watch the TV series  Scandal?  Olivia Pope is a fictional character – a political fixer – who ends up bedding the President and divorce ensues over how many episodes.

Our concern is based on the way that television is part of the “message is in the movie” – things like the prescient Simpsons episodes and the like. Three simple questions to consider:

First, is there someone (female, very good looking and smart) who could play the role of the Scandal Olivia Pope character?

Question 2:  What would the real-life First Lady do in reaction if there was this kind of “cloud on the horizon?”  If you need hints, see “Melania Trump seeks to shelter son from Stormy Daniels drama.”  She’s chilling in Florida.

Third Question:  What’s the market going to do if this crazy-ass scenario is in play?  I’m thinking a 1,151 point drop would be about the right start, but then in the next week or three, we could actually go through what would be very much like a 1929 replay.

Bonus question:  If the “messaging is in the media” already, and you know the plot of Scandal, then who in the Trump cast is playing the role of Cyrus Vance? (Have they left yet, or is this one pending?)

Trump’s sexual history might be exposed if he agrees to testify, too.

All…fascinating stuff to consider.  A follow=through to the upside maybe this morning (depending on the Housing data), but look at all the other big pieces in play.

For one, the Chinese Yuan-Oil deal is now operating.  China rolls out petro-yuan, shaking up oil futures market, says one report.  But we think there are other drivers.

All kinds of bets are on about this story:  “Train believed carrying North Korean delegation leaves Beijing.”

And might the buddy-buddy with the Saudis somehow play into how our dealings with the NorK’s plays out?  Here’s why we think it may: South Korean president visits his troops training Emiratis.  The SK’s are doing the training in the Sand Box?  Shot of wodka and ViceGrips, if you please.  Train  (ing or Kim’s moving) – is the “future on rails?”

This driving the Kushner Company loan inspections?

That core concept (future-viewing) is at the core of much of our work around here.  You see, humans are not particularly innovative and yes, Ecclesiastes is right:  No new thing under the Sun.  (We’re going away from it looking elsewhere to check, too. Follow LightSail2.)

It’s all OK, though.  Pretend there is no “bread and circuses.”  Instead (trying to do something new) we are proud to say it’s now a “new candy bar and circuses.”  That’s the human version of “progress” for you.  And timed to arrive with CNN’s breaking “Bread’s crust not more nutritious than the rest.”  More wodka and bigger ViseGrips, please?

Say, how about melt-resistant ice cream if the circus gets too hot?

Worked Up

The debate over Sanctuary City status is picking up steam in the L.A. times.

Civil War in California to come?

Back to the Important Questions

First:  Who owns that UFO that was reported by two separate pilots over Arizona?

As for the rest of the news?  Pales in comparison.

Escape Room Earth (ERE) got a few issues to deal with.  And how are we doing?  The rock group War nailed it in 1972.

World is a Ghetto.

Peoplenomics for subscriber’s tomorrow.  All eyes on the headlines for the National Mood Shifter…

21 thoughts on “Housing: From Smoke to Smolder”

  1. I have been kicking around the idea of buying a house in Idaho or Montana to retire at. I still have 14 years of child support to pay. Lmao. I’m not a victim, I made a choice and well, love her bunches and sh!t. But once my youngest girl (addopted) turns 18, I may bail to one of these states. Buy a house in the next year thereand either rent it out or sit on it as a vacation home until I retire. once the system crashes I should be able to get a nice one penny’s on the dollar.

    I refuse to pay Seattle prices for a home and be a slave to a mortgage around here. It’s friggen rediculouse. I have a nice 1200 square foot mother in law I rent for $1300 a month and all my utilities (cable with HBO, water/sewer, trash and power) for an even $300 a month flat rate.

    I have my own private entry, kitchen, washer and dryer room etc.. and no roommates except my daughter’s when they are over. Don’t really need much more than that. I’m usually at work or the gym or sleeping anyway.

    It would be nice to have some property to escape to every now and then though.

    Going to throw a dart and see if I guess right. Dow up 389 today.

    I’m not a day trader. Just taking a wild stab at seeing how close I can get.

    Have a great day!

    Rich me!

    • Work a little overtime or take any extra spare things that you have that you don’t want to sell it right now go for Bitcoin in a year or two we’ll go to feta right now it’s not excusing what not Bitcoin Litecoin Litecoin is going to be the performer or not Bitcoin and you want to just do that on coinbase and you’ll discover if you hold on for one year 15 to 40 times your investment

      • The new system is about enabling people not the not the bankers, so enjoy the the future

      • Well, I’m getting there. Not quite yet Bryce. I’m always right where I’m supposed to be. Lol

        A turn of the card and a turn of the page. We shall see.

        Nice to see a little less rambling from ya. I know, I know… When the antena is tuned you pick up all sorts of stations. Ya need to let that stuff flow through you, sort out what is relevant and repeat only that.

        Remember a halo is the original symbol for an idea. (prior to the invention of the light bulb.) A halo is also an altered field state.

        Try not to force ideas on closed minds. Just makes ya look like an asshole. Some who are thirsty will find someone give them something to drink. However, some will merely since their mouths and spit it back out.

    • DOW is down over 300 at approx 3:30p EST. Hope you did not bet a bundle on the DOW being up today. It’s like the movie ‘War Games’. The only sensible choice is not to play.

      • Oh no, I didn’t make a bet. I just took a wild stab at it. Lol plus I was kinda messing with George. See if I could get his eyebrows to raise. Hahahah i don’t do wild guesses, very often. I am a data/meditation kinda guy. And I use whatever is available.

        Been seeing “Boom” bunches lately.

        As was stated a while back I was SEEing a 20% correction in the market. I can link the comment. I thought this would be completed between March 22 and April 1. Then off to all time highs.

        I look to George to fill in the gaps of what I’m not seeing and well, can’t pass up a free education. Old dudes know stuff. They would have not got to be old dudes if they didn’t.

        Have a great day!

        Rich me!

    • Wow.. where in the world can you get power,water,sewer,trash, heat and cable for three hundred a month.. I’m moving there lol lol lol my cable alone is 220.00 no frills .. water/ sewer 130.00 lol lol..
      And those prices will increase to. Fourteen years.. I hope to still be alive then but heck..most of us will probably be sitting in a doorway in a wheelchair or walker just hoping to see a friendly face and not soil ourselves.

      • Well, it’s split 4 ways. I rent half of a house. The guy up stairs and his girlfriend and their son pay 3/4 of the utilities. Which is fair. I rent the entire down stairs. 1200 squares, completely private and peaceful and quiet. When the remodeled and bulky the down stairs as it’s own olace they sound proffed the entire place. :)

    • I won’t be making any predictions on when the crash hits. I did that. Figured the beginning to the drop was to start last November.. boy did I hit it wrong. Now as I see it. Just like me still kicking around and able to comment.. each day is a plus..Take it as it comes. Hope we survive the coming crash. The ones I think will survive are the ones already living in the streets.. can’t go any lower they are use to surviving with limited resources. Then the Amish or colonies.. they work as a cooperative and depend on each other.

      • You keep repeating that like a mantra. Why are you coming to this website if you don’t think you can survive what is coming? It is called Urban Survival don’t ya know AND you have grand kids to mentor and set an example for. Buck up!

      • LOL LOL I think George is smart and I love his perspective on the markets and on the news and what he see’s coming.
        better to be informed than non informed on coming events..

      • Its also better to have someone say.. hey watch out there old man theres a car coming… LOL..
        Surviving this time around .. well in reality we all will in one way or another.. there is one thing that is for sure if you ride a roller coaster everyone on the ride front or back will make the same journeys up and down.. who will panic.. who will throw up.. who will faint. my hope is that by seeing everything through Georges eyes that I can glean enough insight to finish the ride at least in one piece. the ones I would hate to be are the executives of our current employers.. I cannot even imagine what it would be like to be the ceo of a billion dollar company and have to put on my resume that it went under during my administration..

    • Yepper, yep my one track mind sometimes runs over people sorry about that anyway I guess that’s why I’m out here I have a military mine the Rover ruling and dominating subordinates but since I’m neither will just be the guy out in the forest listening to the wind blow have a good day

  2. Re the not so important stuff -there really IS a person whose real life job was the inspiration for the tv series Scandal – her name is Judy Smith and she was the inspiration for the tv series Scandal. Scandal was inspired by her life when she worked as deputy press secretary in the White House.

  4. Worked up.. they’ve just developed an ice cream that doesn’t melt on a hot summers day.. that just doesn’t sound right.. what’s to inspire a person to lick faster.. then modern technology ..sheesh where will it end.. years ago I remember an article in the world waste magazine everyone thought I was making the story up.. lol where will technology end..

    http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2011/06/17/japanese-scientists-create-meat-from-poop.html

    Now .. anyone want some Japanese sausages lol..

    We know oil can be reclaimed from carbon waste and products made from waste for pennies..instead we fill landfill with it..

    • What’s really striking me funny is the memories of my grand kids. I’m always showing them something like making pencils or paper, how to melt stone with the sun, how to cool with the sun.. the list is pretty endless.. well the youngest grandson was born. The daughter breastfed him and kept the milk in the freezer..the other kids were always complaining that there wasn’t anything in that freezer except the breastmilk..
      one day I felt like a good bowl of homemade ice cream was in order.. it was hot out.. I bought some cream and made some ice cream .. the kids all got bowls and cones and was eating away .. then one of the kids made the comment that the freezer was emptier then it was..they realized.. this was homemade ice cream.. all of their eyes got as wide as pie plates they stopped eating and they asked… grandpa where did you get the milk lol lol lol lol .. they though I had used the breast milk lol..

  5. Some say the government sponsored house price welfare and genocide will continue with the central banks help

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