Let’s have a look before we jump to conclusions:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in May, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in several industries, including retail trade, health care, and construction.
Household Survey Data
The unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent in May, and the number of unemployed persons declined to 6.1 million. Over the year, the unemployment rate was down by 0.5 percentage point, and the number of unemployed persons declined by 772,000.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.5 percent), Blacks (5.9 percent), and Asians (2.1 percent) decreased in May. The jobless rates for adult women (3.3 percent), teenagers (12.8 percent), Whites (3.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.9 percent)
changed little over the month.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.2 million in May and accounted for 19.4 percent of the unemployed. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed has declined by 476,000.”
All looks just peachy as hell.
While the labor participation rate was down -10th, the number of people who could ONLY find part time work was down 106,000.
On the CES Birth-Death Model, we’re a bit bewildered: 215,000 of the 293,000 new jobs were “estimated into existence.” Believable methodology? Mostly. 39,000 new construction jobs might be real. But going from 1,000 new jobs in trade, transportation and utilities last month to a claimed 22,000 new jobs this month? Scratching my head there.
15,000 more jobs in education? Going into summer? ViseGrips!
Don’t mind me – the markets don’t Futures holding +120 as we click publish.
Watch for: Where’s the data? Angst for commods traders as China trade figures held in limbo/
Whistling in the graveyard? Deutsche Bank making progress on turnaround: ECB source.
Most Recent Fed Data: M1 annualized in the H.5 money stocks most recent 90 days through May 21: +3.5%
Markets to Rally – Briefly
I swear, sometimes the market (like a horse not reading the Daily Racing Form) must not be reading my column.
I had it figured that we would get a two-part rally following the Tuesday lows, but we only saw the peak of the first part come in Thursday. Then we got what an Elliott chartist would call a B wave down.
Where I got it wrong (but should turn right as rain today) was expecting one more rally.
Based on the early futures read, that should come in today.
In the greater scheme of things, the important numbers in our long wave economic view is that the Aggregate Index (that we track for Peoplenomics.com subscribers) ended May at 23.020.2.
The problem is that April had ended at 22,338.5 and that could be seen (depending on tea-reading skills) as a sign that the monthly has rolled over.
Making money on this is more difficult. Since I’m not going to give you any of my personal positions (a slimy lawyer might argue that’s “advice”) I will simply propose to you that at the lows in February we were down around 21,733.3 in our Aggregate view of things.
Take those numbers (and your MBA) and see if you can work it out. At the ultra-zoom level, it looks like we need to go lower than February’s lows…and that could be a painful decline.
A few people who watch markets seem fond of pointing out “Crashes don’t happen in the Summer.”
While this is true, it may not be because there’s some corner of the sky being held up by natural forces. Rather, it could be (with only 123 reliable summers of data, that one just hasn’t come up yet.
We’re not putting out the Chicken Little alert, but short positions MIGHT turn out to be the silver lining.
.MIL .UFO
Note from .miller warhammer:
“UFO’s are suddenly a very serious news story – you can thank the guys from Blink-182 for that...”
Interesting that this was published by the Stars and Stripes, a long-standing and reliable news vehicle for the U.S. military community.
NSS – and a big EQ just before or after, wasn’t there?
Short Snorts
Errors of Emission: Germany threatens Daimler with 3.75 billion euro fine over emissions: Spiegel.
Trump blasts cost of ‘Russia Hoax’ probe after $17M price tag revealed.
Spendy car wash: Classic 1963 Ferrari 250 GTO sold for record $70 million.
A Friday Ponder…
Do You Trust Anti-Trust?
Should the US Government be broken up on anti-trust grounds? They’re talking about doing just this to tech giants…
I won’t be gentle here: The U.S. Government is duplicitous.
A nice way of saying they are two-faced (“…containing more than one allegation….”) when comes to the whole notion of Anti-Trust. Government exempt’s itself from anti-trust laws. But should it?
Worth mentioning with the Wall St. Journal story out today on how “Amazon, Facebook and Google may be repeating the history of steel, utility, rail and telegraph empires past—while Apple appears ”
Government – especially the left-influenced Deep State – has a problem here. IF they believe it is so important to maintain competitive environments, such that the Amazon, Google, and Facebook people DON’T get monopolies, then why should GOVERNMENT have a monopoly?
They’re all in it for the money, right?
Ask yourself this – because the advent of modern computing makes this possible: Should the U.S. government be split up?
Imagine a world where we have two providers of Federal Government. Based on what they deliver, you could elect to pay your taxes to either USA-1 or USA-2.
If you pay into USA-1, you would ONLY partake of USA-! benefits in return for your taxes. Drive on a road owned by USA-2 and you get a bill (toll) – which in case you missed it, they’re doing ANYWAY.
Hmmm… getting Social Security? Who is offering a more honest sounding retirement system? USA-1 is making up prom notes to itself. USA-2 uses Social Security payments to underwrite their student loans.. Pick-a-poison time..
USA-1 allows abortions, pot use, and doesn’t fly B-52’s 24/7. Their part of the border has no wall. They don’t check to see if anyone is a citizen.
But USA-2 flies nukes, bans pot, has borders, checks voter ID’s, bans abortions…and you would be able to pick which “country” within the country you want to be in.
Caught with a doobie? One citizen goes to jail, the other gets a pass. Exactly what happens now, but it cuts “being rich” and “affording the best lawyer” out of the question.
Government should be held to the same standard as has been attempted for cable TV providers: Everything ought to be ala cart. Want healthcare? Pay. No healthcare? Don’t pay, but risk death. Don’t like foreign policy? Opt out of the defense portion of income tax.
As we have said previously: One reason this anti trust stuff is coming up now is we have a Real Estate president. Amazon doesn’t lease anchor space in shopping malls. Trump real estate cronies make billions leasing to insurance companies who need to park long term dough. The Buy a Mall for Lunch Bunch is learning people hate traffic.
Developers COULD have gone where Bezos IS, but they got complacent.
The problem is anti-trust, unlike steel and rails in the old days, is NOT correctly used in a multiple supply channel world. You don’t HAVE to use Amazon. You COULD drive to Best Buy.
See how this pops the day after the Sears store closing plans? Coincidence? NO – old guard protecting itself from a future they didn’t see coming. Far from visionaries with balls, they are fat cats with Mallagra.
Amazon is a self-solving problem though – Wall-Mart is coming after their ass with a vengeance as we’ve been explaining to PN readers for a couple of years.
Facebook? If it becomes too political, simply turn it off or nationalize it. Bore people to death with it – like the NPR model.
Google?
Again: Is search indexing a public utility or is it an open source deal? What could happen is Google and the other outfits could all simply be forced to report EVERY BIT OF DATA COLLECTION they are engaged in.
People’s hair would spontaneously combust. Investors would jump out (of windows -or iOS, lol – or stock positions) and harmony and balance in the world resumes.
Bottom Line: Government considers itself “special.”
We agree – it is – in certain kinds of tech. Google sells data (and to government) we presume. So why not just nationalize Google? Might be marketed as Government’s Onerous, Obnoxious Grab, Legally Exempt) and we become China II.
See our Digital Mob Rule discussion on the subscriber side tomorrow.
As a citizen, who do you trust more: Capitalistic slime to run all search, or corrupt politicians? Not much of a choice, is it?
Shopping online? Amazon’s got to deal with Wal-Mart. Watch the deals roll.
Facebook? Outlaw social media – as we’ve been arguing for years. It’s dangerous, drives people to distraction (and may play a hand in shaming, bullying, school shootings, and social isolation). Cite public mental health issues and close ’em down.
Or, require socialist credits to yammer – like China does. Bar people who post hate on FB from riding Amtrak, or whatever. See where this gets us? More government power is bad government power.
This isn’t one steel giant (like US Steel) or whoever in the last Depression. We still have other channels, other vendors. This is government trying to keep up its monopoly powers over corporations because they are challenging both We the People and American Values.
What no one seems to realize (and this gets to my new book and the Digital Mob Rule concept) Government is obsolete already. It just isn’t apparent yet. A new Global Mind is rising and governments will fall if they fail to embrace the change.
There…how’s that for a radical view?
Wait till corporations here about my re-gov.org idea! “There’s got to be some way out of here, said the Joker to the Thief…:”
We’re not going to find it, if we don’t start looking. Sitting on one’s national ass don’t fix or change jack…know what I’m saying?
<More Monday – stay out of jail, avoid radicals, and brush after every meal.>
Ure done.
“I swear, sometimes the market (like a horse not reading the Daily Racing Form) must not be reading my column.”…George 2018
“Since all these portents are produced impartially, prophecy comes to pass partly as predicted.”…Nostradamus, Letter to Cesar…1555
I saw the jobs report and couldn’t wait for you to get a hold of it. Makes me smile everytime. And hopeful as not everyone is brainwashed into thinking all is well in this rotten apple core.
Amazon vs. Walmart: I buy from both and have found the following.
Amazon lets me choose whether to accept packages at home or at my local Whole Foods store. Mostly, I use home delivery, but sometimes the timing or what it is prompts me to select locker service. When I do, I simply go to the locker, show it my email, printed or on smart phone screen, the door opens, and Bob’s your uncle.
At Walmart, I have a limited time window for when the customer service counter is open. There usually is a line. I hand the clerk a printout of my delivery email. Sometimes the clerks are confused about how to perform the transaction, and have to confer on how to handle it. Then, they have to go to the storage area and find my package. They sometimes are confused about this too.
All in all, Amazon is hands down much more efficient about package delivery, so, until Wallyworld gets its bleep together and equals Amazon’s delivery quality, I will continue to give Bezos my business.
I picked up an online order delivered to a Walmart store last night. It was automated with a huge orange bin located by the front door. I entered my order # & in 2 seconds the door opened to the orange bin & my order was there. Slick.
don’t go through the USPS… my god.. I thought they had to pass a remedial reading class to get a job there.. the last three packages I have had that were shipped made it to the area sorting center. next stop logically my distribution and delivery center.. not so.. they get there then get shipped off someplace else.. one package was sent to one city.. they couldn’t read there so they sent it to new york.. then down to Florida.. after being within a ten mile radius of me the first time.. the second time.. made it to Chicago and has been stuck there for two weeks.. the one that made it to town yesterday wasn’t at the post office this morning in checking it out.. they decided to ship it to Houston Texas.. LOL LOL I did file a complaint.. they have a question did you call the police.. for what to say that they have stupid people working for them.. or was it a machine that did this..
George
Could you expand a bit more on Deutschebank in a future column?
I listened to an online discussion pointing out their 47 trillion dollars in outstanding derivatives and 70% shares value drop as indicators of a possible Leman Brothers event on steroids.
Thanks
The FAANG companies can’t really be broken up anyway, because they because they Were all smart to diversify. . It’s like breaking up Berkshire Hathaway. Too many parts… Google/Alphabet is not just about data. They own over 200 companies…from YouTube, Nest, Zagat, Motorola Mobility, Genius Labs, WAZE, Titan Aerospace, CAPTCHA, dozens of AI related companies… to name a few.
Apple owns 94 companies like Beats, File Maker, Orion Network Systems, Claris, Shazam and many more.
Facebook owns 67 companies…including WhatsApp, Oculus VR, Instagram, Lightbox, WaveGroup Sound, and a dozen or so AI companies.
Amazon owns 30+ companies…the most notable are Whole Foods, Ring Doorbell, Audible, Zappos, Woot and more AI companies.
The one thing they all have in common that we need to watch out for are the AI companies. Once that has passed all the Turing tests, there will be a battle on who controls that industry. As you said earlier…will it be the…“Capitalistic slime…, or corrupt politicians? Not much of a choice, is it?”
Heyo Geo,
When I go to the main page and see the list of articles and click on the comments for yesterday or such, it now takes me to the bottom of the comments to submit a comment. Can you offer a button that takes us to the top of the comments for those of us who mostly read the comments but rarely comment? Kind of a hassle to have to always move back up to the top of the comments to start reading them. Thanks.
I’m workin on it!!! hang in there. Breadcrumb (next previous is in line first)
Even black unemployment is at record lows all the while Trump is eliminating Federal jobs…. and wages are rising.
Only the poor can be blamed for being poor.
Could you break up the Federal Government? Seems Like the founders did that and we keep undoing it. How about this: take Article 1 Section 8 of the Constitution, and generate a spending bill for each item assigned. Then stop! The rest, according to the 9th and 10th amendments, are the responsibility of the states. Presto! Government broken up nicely.
There’s no reason to break it up. The federal government at this point it is just a shell game. While those really making the decisions work just beneath the surface like sharks ready to strike.
Ditto, and thanks!
The FedGov has been overstepping its purview for nearly 200 years. People are no longer taught that “of…By…and for” is a CONTRACT, and cannot legally be broken. The fact D.C. has routinely done so, doesn’t void the contract, it accentuates the fact we have been really poor (and ignorant) stewards with respect to our contractual responsibilities…
Well said Ray
Great points Anon..
“Everything ought to be ala cart. Want healthcare? Pay. No healthcare? Don’t pay, but risk death. Don’t like foreign policy? Opt out of the defense portion of income tax.”
Phew.. well not long ago we discovered that the company owning our only source of income was having serious issues. Not paying wages,utilities,supplies etc. ( now I never ever thought that there were states and banks that just handed out money without any credit etc. but the company that bought out all these facilities across the USA had according to the evening news had financial issues. Yet was given close to two billion in loans.. how would anyone like to be the banker in that )
Anyway luckily a new job was found. The problem no health insurance offered to anyone except management.
Well with only a sixty day window we had to find a health policy for the wife only..
one insurance salesman got angry because he hated the aca and those that insurance companies wouldn’t cover don’t deserve to have coverage. So we left there and called the daughter. She does investment banking and has friends that deal with selling health insurance.
Luckily we were still in the window.. the business owner hadn’t paid premiums long before the other issues popped up. But we had to go in that minute to get it.
What we found out is our area has basically two policies available. The cheapest one limits you seeing a physician to three times in a twelve month period. No matter what a limit on everything else and a twelve thousand dollar deductible. The price a thousand a month.. the next up was the same but they covered x-rays and unlimited doctors visits if you don’t go anywhere.. the price just under 1200.00 a month and a 7500.00 thousand dollar deductible . The third policy the same you can choose doctors and if your in another state see a doctor maximum pharmaceutical under the plans accepted drugs are the same as the other and set at a hundred ten for generic.. the price 1623.00 a month. The other company for our area has similar policies the price difference is about two hundred more on each of the three choices. With the top plan being 1842.00
We took the 1200.00 plan have to pay two months up front but they will go back to the first of may. ( which is good.. wife sprained her ankle ( thought it was broke ) and so far the table is around five thousand)
The point I am getting at is the 1200.00 a month.. that’s half of our monthly income.
Which means I have to get the budget out and see where I can cut expenses. The kids in the same boat with a quarter million dollar mortgage.. it will shut them down.
considering this.. think of the market implications the economics of those prices.. that one amounts to seven dollars an hour and change clear dollars.. that quote was for one person.. I didn’t get a family coverage quote. we can do it..we sure have been in tougher places. before at the work the workplace coverage was almost nine hundred a month. the difference is this job pays less. but it is a job and since we are in that window where your discriminated by age and qualifications. (the wife is a professional ) I think of the kids.. around here college grad’s don’t start out at the quarter million range they do in California.. they start out considerably less in wages..with a vast majority making way below the seventy thousand dollar a year mark.
I wonder now that the trend is for the companies not offering those benefits is leaving a lot of people either without insurance. ( then those with insurance pay the prices.. when I worked at the hospital we had a meeting where they were pointing out the hospitals budget and that they had to make cuts.. that one third of the people coming there could not pay) or leaving them with less money to spend.. medical bills increase insurance increases.. doctors office rents have to increase … etc.. follow the reverse pyramid.
and it started with deregulation in the eighties.. should there be a profit margin.. I think so but that is my opinion.. a segment on sixty minutes brought out that a shot in canada that cost thirty three dollars costs an american ten thousand dollars..
Did you look into Samaritan Ministries??? Yes or No? Quit insurance, save your money, help each other. Research health sharing ministries. How can I be more clear? You claim to look outside of the box, and I can’t get you to investigate an out of the box SOLUTION to your dilemma and gripe.
I hope you are right that this is the last rally before a decline to under the Feb low. I was looking for a downturn at the end of May for the summer & have been raising cash during rallies. I am running out of stocks that I am willing to sell, but that could turn out good for me if the decline starts Monday on schedule.
NK meeting is back on…that’s a good thing right? All because of a letter that Trump said was very nice….or was it. This is from his own mouth today.
…..Mr. Trump initially told reporters it was “a very nice letter” and “a very interesting letter,” but by the end of a conversation with reporters, he said that he had not actually read it.
“I purposely haven’t opened the letter,” Mr. Trump said.
HMMM….
Both play the public for stupid, because if that were not so would they be leaders of so many semi idiots?
Maybe he didnt personally open the letter because it had to be vetted for possible chemical or biological warfare materials. Ya think?
The markets don’t read your column? Tell me about it. Almost every time I make a play based on your writing, I am lucky to break even. Once in awhile it reads your column and I make a few cheeseburgers.
my my george you did it , now iam sitting layed back at the desktop.
enlarging the print 150 times and putting the page at a super slow scroll .
watching ,waiting,and letting my mind wander as the print ever so slowly moves up the screen.
this beats the hell out of using the smartphone,
but wait , i can watch and listen to the smartphone play a boring or not so boring youtube video and watch georges page drift ever so slowly by and if somehow i missed something ,
i can play back my 60 giga byte recording camera.
MAY ALL BEINGS BE LOVINGLY FULFILLED, SO BE IT