These Three Charts Explain Everything

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Well, here we is (sic) – March 22 – and this is ideally when in our strange view of reality, US Market MIGHT take to the high-board in a very 1929-like way.

I predicted this last month based on our work on the Peoplenomics side of the house, Dow futures were down more than 200 points earlier.  We hold a very different (OK< odd, then) view of the markets.  One that is based on globalism with the US only a single, non-dominant player. History matters, don’tcha know?   When you line up the market break back in 1920-1921 with the Housing Bubble market break low (March 2009, remember at that fun?), this is what you get:

(Continues below)

 

No, this is not financial advice – more like the confessional of a wild-eyed trader who sometimes wins big, but other times loses big.

That’s because there are just some aspects of the future that are difficult to nail down with enough precision to put money behind.  Humans create lots of “activity noise.”

Which gets us to the troublesome part of the first chart:  Are we at the left should pause (follow thearrows to the left, see immediate rally break-out) OR are we playing the right shoulder and about to dive as never before?

Let’s take the left should/bullish rally idea first.  This is how the November 28, 1928 sequence lines up with the present market January high (and using the futures-implied data before the open):

Until the present decline started, I was leaning toward this being the preferred outcome.  We get another massive rally, we get to buy a new car…yadas, yada…

Judging the correspondence between the two market periods forced me to come up with a new way of measuring…something I call the Boolean Logical Correspondence (BLC).

The way this works goes like this:

We note a simple yes/or/no to the question:  “Did the market move the same direction today as it did in the corresponding period in 1928?”

If the answer is YES, score a point for the bullish case.  Since the market peak (January), and through the February decline, and into this morning (based on how the futures look before the opening) the bullish correspondence has been  a weak 56.41%.

So how about them Bears?

Visually, to my eyes (which ain’t to hot, admittedly) it looks to me like we are “over-hanging the Valley of Death!”

THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE and it’s a fools game to try.  (*Which is why I do things like trade the after-hours session, lol.)

Seriously?  The bearish (duck and cover) case, has a 64.1026% correspondence using BLC.

Not sure the market heard me, but a drop of 150-odd Dow points at the open should lead to the next three weeks being “veh-wee intawesting…silly wabbit.”

Such an opening would put our longer-term proprietary trading model into…naw, let’s save that stuff for subscribers, shall we?

Here’s the deal:  We drop more than 300 today and only Peoplenomics readers get tomorrow’s column.  Howzat?

Just understand that the WW (Whole World) index is now down 6.7 percent from its January 26 high, and that makes this the 7th week of what’s turning into what smacks of a Global Bear Market.  We expect weakness to persist.

While bulls say it’s all because of the US tax reform and repatriated money, remember that when the dollar value goes up, it takes fewer of them to “buy the Dow” – so yes, we would be fine with a currency-driven market decline…money’s money, you know?

Maybe next month, someone besides me will see it, but remember, I’m a lone nut out here in the woods and this is a very unorthodox view.

Let’s see how it works out…

Does Old Consenting Sex Matter?

It does if you’re CBS going after Donald Trump.

Didn’t seem to for Bill Clinton…the old petchewzelwhacker didn’t get impeached, so why is everyone doubling down on Trump?  All smacks of a double-standard.

Still Need a Distraction – How About War?

We wonder “how soon?” when a story like how a ” Chinese paper says China should prepare for military action over Taiwan...” shows up.

Of course, since China bans Facebook (and isn’t selling gender-change in schools, so far as we know) they may have a little higher “national T-level” if you know what I mean… High T levels win fights, war, and…oh please, don’t mention this to anyone.  Ain’t PC…factual, sure, but PC?  No.

Meantime, file under blah, blah, blah: Zuckerberg apologizes for Facebook mistakes with user data, vows curbs.

Gosh, we hope not…it was a joy to see a rube like Trump slay the Deep State in social-ists.  So maybe the “special lefties” ain’t so special, or bright, maybe?  Tell me it ain’t so…

Or, as we sagely remind: On average, everyone’s average…

Tesla Pay Whiners

OK, it doesn’t really matter how much Elon Musk makes – but the media has gone into stupid mode on this.

Take for example: World’s top wealth fund says opposed Musk’s $2.6 billion pay deal/

Now a simple explanation of why we don’t care:

First,. Musk is a serious entrepreneur.  This means he makes things happen whether you like ’em or not and we tall that growth.

Point two?  Musk’s personal life is off-again-on-again with women, so I don’t know whether he’d file single (with shared support) or married (with share support), but as long as he’s paid a whopper of as W-2 than have at it.  What bracket is a billion a year, anyone?

On the other hand, if it’s structured offshore for tax advantage?  Well, yeah, then we start to look at the pay level as sleazy.

BUT, if we did that, half of Connecticut would be up in arms over offshore stock option domiciling and money coming in as “loan proceeds” (loan money is not taxable)…and all the other tricks of offshore, 1% screw-overing is a highly evolved art….but there you have it.

She’s to Die For

Death sentence reinstated for only woman on Mississippi’s death row.

Tacky headlines?  Us?

State of Confusiornia

That would be California. More California cities looking to reject state’s sanctuary law.

Call the WWF – this is a tag-team masterpiece!  Get it on cable PPV!

Local government, vs. state government, vs. federal government, vs. Mexico….And on the undercard?

Where’s She Learn THAT?

North Carolina lawmaker told to stop claiming she’s a nurse.

Is this a GOP spin on Pocahontas Warren?

Ahead?

LEI (leading economic indicators) later this morning.  It’s an anagram…and it ain’t hard to figure.

Neel Kashkari – one of the most rational of Fed members – speaks tomorrow be interesting to hear why he didn’t vote for the rate hike Wednesday.

Also would be interesting why the Fed overall didn’t buy in to his plan to resolve Too Big To Fail…oh, but we know the answer there:  If you run out of money, it’s bankruptcy.  But when banks (and other “special” people) do, it’s a bail-out.  Free money from the tax-slaves… but I digress.

Four day trading week ahead – Good Friday is a stock market holiday…all Friday’s are good, don’t get me wrong…but that’s next week.  Regular day tomorrow.  (You like regular, right?)

Tomorrow Durable Goods.  CFNAI Monday and Housing from Case-Shiller Tuesday.

And the beat goes on….

M oron the ‘morrow.

26 thoughts on “These Three Charts Explain Everything”

  1. I saw on zerohedge that the petroyuan goes live on Monday using gold for oil. This should be something to watch since China and Russia hold lots of gold and the US not so much.

    • Why did the U.S. system break from gold in the first place? – that’s why it won’t work in China.

    • I’ve been wondering about the same thing. I’m very interested in understanding the likely track for PMs over the next year or two. It seems that they’re not doing anything special, but sometimes that’s deceptive. They tend to move quickly when they do. I’m at a loss to know where’s a good investment now, other than improving the physical assets that I already own.

      • NM Mike; the best investment is the right woman. Keep searching; she’ll turn up.

  2. Good call George. Dow is down 436 atm. I was wrong. I saw a rally between today and April 1. Then on to new highs. Sometimes I’m wrong. Its not that the data is wrong I just misinterpret it. I’m just a man.

    I Got the day off today. I’m not to worried about it. Which is odd because we have been rolling 6 days a week for like forever. It’s pay day and all my bills are paid, food in the cupboards, gas in the tank, plenty of coffee. Gives me a chance to get more settled in my new place. A place for everything and everything in it’s place.

    Plus I have a huge stack of Clive Cusler books I have been meaning to read. When my second wives grandpa died he left behind I think every Clive Cusler book ever written. So I snatched them all up. Lol

    Plus I am running down to the local pawn shop to buy a laptop. I was with a friend down there last week, he was shopping for good music equipment and you can get basically a brand new laptop for $150! With windows 10 and 16 gigs of ram. That is a deal! Until then, it had never occurred to me to buy a laptop from a pawn broker. They even warranty the stuff for 90 days. First time I have been in a pawn shop in 14-15 years.

    4k Big screen Tv’s for like $400. Good stuff.

    Anyway. Great call old dude! Like I said you may be crazy but that doesn’t mean you are inaccurate. I took that from a quote of yours back in 2002 ish on urban survival.:)

    “Just because I’m crazy doesn’t mean I’m entirely inaccurate” George Ure.

    • Any compute device you buy, and almost no source can be completely trusted, factory reset and re-image. Assume something like that is malware infested and work from there. MS makes it pretty easy to re-image. But never use a machine you don’t know the history for any of your important logins until re-imaged and fully patched.

  3. George and I have to come up with a code system or something because I don’t know whether you cut me off or they cut me off if you cut me off that’s fine but if they cut me off well what the hell am I going to do about that so about the dick allegory thing that I posted did you cut that off or did they cut that off I need to know so that we can maneuver and a responsible manner to facilitate the power of your website and regard to the people who use it and Empower you

  4. Ohhh remember what I told you a while ago. Next primary presidential election Smokin Joe Biden verses Donald Trump. That is what I SEE.

    It’s already on. Lmfao Trump just tweeted he could kick Biden’s ass. Hahahahahahaah

    mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/976765417908776963

  5. It’s that time of the year its March third week of March about which means if you have a Bryce lazy porch Garden or if you have a porch it means the sun’s not coming in at the ankle it was during winter it means the sun is starting to rise up higher and higher which means your porch does not warm as much as it was before and it won’t be but a few more months or so before you’ll have high noon this that time of the year it’s March 3rd week of March about with you mean if you have a Bryce’s lazy porch Garden or a few have a porch it means the Suns not coming in at the ankle it was during winter it means the Sun is starting to rise up higher and higher which you means you’re porch this now warm as much as it was before and it won’t be but if you more months so so before you’ll have high noon

    • I wish the sound recorder thing when I punch post will not keep repeating things like it just did I mean it sounds like deficiency in the electronic department

  7. By George, George, ya called this one, Dow down 500 right now.
    I hope you’re prognostications are not so good on war.
    Peter

  9. Donald Rump will have no such luck….

    Sorry I can’t find the chart that I’ve posted a few times. Elliot Wave International chart showed that Nixon’s impeachment happened because he also got blamed for the Dow crashing. Bill ‘Teflon’ Clinton got acquittal because popular opinion credited him for the Dow’s climb.

    https://www.thestreet.com/story/14140200/1/when-clinton-was-impeached-markets-gained-with-trump-it-might-be-different.html

    https://www.socionomics.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/nutshell-2.pdf

  10. Well silly wabbet,I guess you got your 150 point drop? Soooo the next 3 weeks should be veh wee itwesting .

  11. Finally back to even on my triple short ETF options. Hoping to see a profit in the coming days.

  13. New China tariff, now I know the reason my neighbor moved quickly and took a huge loss on his new million dollar home and moved back to China. Inspite of numerous letters from the likes of Costco target and Walmart the tariff is in place get ready to pay up to,45 percent tariff on anything made in China and get ready for retaliation it’s not going to be pretty. Better buy what you want or need or think you might need now think George’s is right this kind of bs could usher in depression

  15. One thing that I have always found ‘interesting’, was when a lawyer ‘quits’ a client. While it can happen for totally innocent reasons, it can indicate ‘a sinking ship’. Trump’s lead guy bailing cannot be ‘good’.

    Then there is dumping McMaster . . . and hiring John Bolton, who has too much ‘history’. He is like a bad tooth – until filled or pulled, it will continue to cause problems including perhaps infecting other teeth.

    Bolton will (no doubt at all) ‘infect’ with his hawkish views the rest of Trump’s advisers. It will be a ‘hot’ summer.

    • Isn’t Bolton a neocon? All Obama did was advance the foreign policy and surveillance state that GWB began. I fear Trump is doing the same. That’s not what many who voted for him voted for.

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