The Wages of Deflation

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With Ukraine/Crimea on a rolling boil on the back burner this morning, we can mix our oatmeal with a healthy helping of low calorie deflation, says the monthly update on consumer prices just out from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, though they somehow overlooked the oatmeal reference:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.1 percent before seasonal adjustment. An increase in the food index accounted for more than half of the all items increase in February.

The food index rose 0.4 percent in February, driven by a 0.5 percent increase in the index for food at home, with four of the six major grocery store food group indexes increasing.

The energy index declined, with a decrease in the gasoline index more than offsetting sharp increases in the fuel oil and natural gas indexes. The index for all items less food and energy also rose 0.1 percent in February.

An increase of 0.2 percent in the shelter index was the major contributor to the rise, but the indexes for medical care, airline fares, personal care, recreation, and new vehicles also increased. In contrast, the indexes for household furnishings and operations, apparel, used cars and trucks, and tobacco all declined in February.

The all items index increased 1.1 percent over the last 12 months; this compares to increases of 1.5 percent in December and 1.6 percent in January.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.6 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index declined 2.5 percent over the same period, while the food index has increased 1.4 percent.

The first – and most important part – of all this is that by having such a low cost of living increase, a number of predictable cause and effects are likely to pop out of the future to “get in our faces.”  (I could say “get in our feces,” but that would rude, however more accurate.)

For one, when we come to November, we are likely to see an annualized inflation rate for Social Security adjustments drop to the well-under 2% range and, if this kind of thing doesn’t stop coming out of the numbers, there will likely be a 1.2-1.5% kind of Social Security impact.

This means that by next year, when the change is applied to December Social Security (which is then paid in January 2015) what will happen is a lot of people who retired earlier than full retirement age will find they are not keeping up with inflation.  Well that’s the plan, as I see it.

Ure’s (clip out and save) Public Policy Note

About here, Ures truly jumps up to point out that there is a real “screw job” built into the cost of living data.  How so?  Well, the reports don’t include a provide for tax increases.

For the past couple of years, thanks to the real estate “recovery” (really the Fed and banks conspiring to keep property off the market) prices have made an artificial recovery.  This, in turn has allowed taxes in some jurisdictions to rise.

And, according to Judge Roberts of no less than the US Supreme Court, Obamacare/ the ACA is a tax and so where does this show up in the government’s cost of living analysis?  Wha5t about soaring Medicare costs for the retired?

If it’s in there, I sure haven’t seen it.

But the reality is that one of the reasons prices are down in (the things the government measures) is because the pressure is being put on the average American on things that can’t be measured and are not included:  Things like taxes and punitive interest on credit cards, for example, are REAL costs when it comes to what you can afford in life.

It’s just they don’t show up in the cost of living. report.  They just hurt and you’re supposed to suffer in silence.

As long as we’re in policy, remember that the Fed is now pumping M1 (cash into the economy) at a rate north of 18% annualized for the most recent three-month window and this means what? 

Deflation.  There goes gold, there goes the collapse of the dollar theory.

So, what ought to occur if the world is not too crazy?  The Fed, seems to me, will NOT continue its tapering of quantitative easing, and will cite some nebulosity “to ensure continued economic growth remains uninterrupted” or other such weasel-words, in order to keep printing because if they don’t the whole financial world will implode.

That’s why the stock futures are up 50 and should head to new highs in a week or two.  Because while one dollar of dividends on a stock means a stock price of $100 in a 1% interest rate environment, a dollar of dividends means a $200 stock price when interest rates are 0.5%.  Melt-up in the wings.

Gone be a bear on gold.

Meantime, the Chinese dutifully report the GDP growth of the G20 was down a bit to 2.8% for 2013 which is hardly surprising.

What that means is that global inflation is not offsetting pernicious deflation.

“Wait!  How can than happen?  Keynesians assured use free trade was the answer!”

Oh, haven’t you figured that one out yet?  They lied, you wage monkey.

The whole free-trade theory was based on the ugly plan of the corporatists to come to power and slam individual countries and seize their freedoms. Seems to be working in that area. 

They  talked trash and sold free-trade bullshit so that now they can get work done elsewhere around the world for 50-cents an hour while you get pushed into welfare.  Duh!

What part of global economic conquest, and long term strategic plans aren’t you clear on?

Now, before we get into the Ukraine mess, did you know Amazon has radiation detectors like this one for sale?

Now What?  The Beneš Decrees

In Monday’s column I told you that the next sideshow in the Ukraine/Crimea fiasco would be the modern-day equivalent of the Beneš decrees following the Sudetenland vote in pre WW II Europe.

Having made (such an obvious) prediction, let’s see who is decreeing what this morning, shall we?

    Since the Beneš Decrees were pretty much useless in Sudetenland, we can only assume the playbook will be closely followed.

    And, without a doubt, the US/Israel neocon faction will continue to run the show since they will repeat the historical account of how lord Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement policy led to the series of Sudetenland (now the Czech Republic) in WW II.

    Given that the roles are reversed (in other words, the EU is the expansionist party du jour) we would expect there to be a strengthening of the party line on the EU side of thing.

    Cue vice president Joe Biden’s trip to Poland, where he will no doubt lead the cheers of the EU that some territory has been gained by the uprising/unelected government in Kiev.

    The problem for the West (and what the neocon history coaches can’t quite grok yet) is that Vlad Putin is not Neville Chamberlain.  And, just as the US went to the brink of nuclear war (and was ready to go past it in the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, so too, Vlad Putin’s parents and millions of Russians have already had Europe (under Hitler) lay siege to their country before.

    The obvious move from their standpoint, is to quickly “respond to Crimea’s vote” and that is likely to mean military forces which, in turn, will lead to another round of sanctions, perhaps later this week, by the US/West/EU/the Enterprise which has point on rolling out global government.

    We can score this like a tennis match:  Two serves each, no winner yet.

    The US/West/EU has next serve on this and we’ll be watching Russia’s footwork carefully.

    But persistently, Russian media keep pointing out that what the West so much promoted in Kosovo is now the “shoe on the other foot.”

    Since this has the potential to trash markets, we’ll maintain a high decree (sic) of interest in how things roll.

    Don’t be surprised, however, if Russia-friendly (or overtly) Russian sites (like www.rt.com) begin to experience “technical difficulties” on the US web.   US/West/EU friendly sites are already running into issues in Russia as well.

    In order for thought control to work, your inputs must become limited, lest you begin to begin calling out both sides.  And we can’t have that kind of global democracy, can we? 

    It’s just one more step to my long-forecast of licensure of the Internet as a socioeconomic control mechanism that government is increasingly unable to live without.  Stand bye for more decrees. 

    Season of the Beneš is game on.

    And just in from our analyst fellow warhammer:

    George,

    What do you think Vlad Putin would do if the U.S. of A. moved F-22s into Poland and sends Aegis equipped destroyers into the Black Sea off the tip of Crimea?

    Well, the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee’s own James Inhofe of Oklahoma believes such action would not escalate the situation!

    If Obama is thinking ‘yin,’ then Putin will counter with ‘yang.’  Tis the nature of ‘the beast’ – I’m not saying which gets this title, so take from that sobriquet what you will  ;-)

    Hopefully some middle ground will be reached. 

    This has the potential to escalate if foolish minds prevail.  Much is at stake, not the least of which is the future of a good portion of humanity.

    You paying attention to this morning’s Amazon ad?  Clearly, the underlying truth has to do with recognition of desperation and campaign finance, but another rant for another day. 

    Power to the People (as long as they’re not in Crimea….) Next?

    Here Come the Climate Mania Police

    The global climate change panic is being rolled out in full-force now.  Given that Global Warming lost so much “street cred” folks have been baited and switched over to “climate change” and the new carbon-taxer (global government economic base) buzz.

    And – in true neo-Nazi/totalitarian style, dissent will not be tolerated, it seems.  In comments posted to a discussion website (The Conversation) an assistant professor at Rochester Institute of Technology, Lawrence Torcello asks “Is misinformation about the climate criminally negligent?”

    At the same time, we see that the UN has taken up the charge again, saying in a report that climate change will “cost trillions.”

    The difficulty in assessing true impacts is deciding where fault lies.  Is the warming, which has been rampant a matter of heat islands, massive deforestation, CFC’s, automobile pollution, or is there any at all, when the massive (overwhelming impacts) of solar output are considered.

    Be careful what you think, here.  The true believers might have you locked up if you dare give the answer they don’t agree with.

    Oh, did I mention somewhere in here that you should enjoy what could be the “last free days of the net?”