While the fireworks pop and grills fire up this Independence Day weekend, markets are showing some interesting gearing under the hood. Our latest look at M2 growth versus the Aggregate Index points to roughly 4-to-1 leveraging of new money into gains over the past year—21.9% higher on the index side. That kind of disconnect has shown up in late-cycle bubbles before, and the recursive patterns suggest watching for liquidity shifts or external shocks that could normalize things the hard way.
Yen carry trade dynamics add another layer worth tracking. With USD/JPY in elevated ranges and BoJ policy divergence in play, a rapid unwind scenario remains a high tail-risk flag—potentially rippling through global assets fast. Our state variance extremes and magic ovals on the majors (Dow holding near upper central tendency while Nasdaq looks more bearish) hint at a market that’s been “painted” in spots, with coherence building for potential downside pressure into the fall window.
Longer-wave 1929 comparisons via the Aggregate keep the perspective sharp—steep rises followed by resets have precedents. Full ChartPack and analysis for subscribers dives into the numbers, projections, and what to watch next. Enjoy the holiday responsibly, stay aware, and think long-wave.
And yes, there will be a ShopTalk Sunday this week – I learned something new!
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May we all enjoy a blessed celebration of the 250th anniversary of our Declaration of Independence!
Happy 4th of July to everybody out there. May you have a wonderful weekend of food, fireworks, and socializing.
Ever considered that nasdec is a crack up boom. Still a-lot of Hindenburg omens
Trump as richy rich keeps market going. Russia keeps europe in line.
He’s the top dog for a reason.
Bottomless pit Joey Chestnut once again took home the crown at the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Saturday afternoon, celebrating the 250th birthday of America with relish.
Chestnut, 41, scarfed down a nauseating 66 glizzies in 10 minutes to the delight of a ravenous estimated 25,000 spectator crowd in Coney Island to secure his astounding 18th Mustard Belt and $10,000 prize.
https://nypost.com/2026/07/04/us-news/joey-chestnut-wins-july-4th-nathans-hot-dog-eating-contest/
re: Futarchy = future + anarchy
feat: Hebrew Nathan adviser to David
JC,
It seems there’s more to a non-halal Jewish-founded Nathan’s hot dog than meets the eye. The first half of 2026 has seen Nathan’s parent Smithfield and its many American farms be swallowed up and taken private by WH Group headquartered in Hong Kong. Its patriarch is understood to be a member in good standing with the ruling CCP.
A number of the images in the hot dog eating contest’s “NY Post” link are by Chinese/Korean-American freelance photographer Stephen Yang. It would seem that event and competitor tshirt sponsors included Finnish packaging firm Chinet, and crypto prediction market Polymarket of perhaps futarchy leanings. The latter publicly features investment by a First Son’s firm. Polymarket’s offices are situated at 1280 Lexington, 10028 whose avenue is named after an opening April 19, 1775 battle of the American Revolutionary War. British troops under Maj-Gen Smith opened fire against Patriots on a common or field.
The 1280 Lexington tower is owned by a gentleman from the Lower East Side formerly known as Gershon ([a son of Levi] “to expel/drive out”), and former Antwerp diamond trader. He allegedly maintains control over tds symptoms by waging successful real estate deals to spite his nemesis of at least the past 20+ years. The 1280 structure had previously been known as the Duane Reed Building prior to their relocation to 40 Wall Street described as a diamond in the Trump holdings. Construction of the present tower at #40 for the Manhattan Company which dates to 1799 topped out a month after the Dow in 1929. They were taken over by Chase in 1955 that nowadays is part of JP Morgan Chase.
From 4:30AM [ roughly ] [ to just a few minutes ago ] a brush fire broke-out along the highway that runs along the Columbia River Hwy97 A.., it was reported at 480 acres at 8:00.., just reported that it is now over 900 acers and moving fast.
If this fire breaks overs the ridge-line it is going to be a disaster. There is nothing but farms and wheat fields., tens of thousands of acres of very dry fields.
Evacuation notices have been issued for a huge area. Lots of rural homes and farms.
I can step-out my front door – look a little east and south and see a massive plume of smoke – best guess is over six thousand feet – it’s ugly.
One person reported to the sheriff’s office that a white pick-up was setting off fireworks right near the start of the fire. I hope they catch that friggin’ idiot – and make him pay for all the damage he has caused and will cause. Two houses are already reported lost.
My guess is that we are going to see a number of fires in the next couple of days. Fireworks, of any kind, are illegal in this county., and for very good reasons.
.., damn !
1 – save the Missus
2 – Save JARVIS
…Might want to pack J.A.R.V.I.S. now — everything but the ‘puter itself, because one wind shift and you’re suddenly forced to prioritize the saving of objects which pump blood instead of electrons.
Stay SAFE!!
Sad that people are so SELFISH!
Only really big Wildfire I ever saw up close was in the Sierra’s back in ’93, we drove right past past where it started, 15 minutes before it started about 100′ off the road – from an illegal morning campfire (at about 10 AM) that then caught the tinder dry waist high grass on fire which with the high winds that day was 200+ acres by the time the firetrucks arrived which was only 15 mintues later.
By 4 PM when we were leaving the historic town of Columbia CA it was 20,000+- acres and moving at 20 to 30 mph, oh and besides the fire trucks being on it in 15 mintues and they had the water bomber airplane tankers on it in about 45 minutes. A near clone of the speed of growth of the Paradise Fire in the Sierras a number of years later. We were the last car they allowed to cross the Sierra’s to the East at 4ish and the Sherriff deputy said as he closed th rode behind us “Do NOT stop for ANYTHING until you are across and going down into the desert on the other side.”
Until you see the both speed of growth of a Western Mega Fire and how fast they can travel across the ground you can’t grasp how dangerous, quickly dangerous, they can be. Until I saw that one in person I couldn’t grasp the speed and destructive nature of such fires.
Stay safe!! Hopefully the winds will change and turn it back on itself so as to stop it’s spread.
My prayers to you and your family! There was a significant fire locally that was out of control for a bit and they had air tankers dropping retardant constantly, along with ground support. Those big planes(DC-10, MD-87, etc) made all the difference. I’ve been up close and personal with other fires in the area and they’re no joke at all. I still see the burn scars from the Doghead fire many years ago. Protect your place as long as it’s safe to do so, but make sure you have escape paths(plural). I don’t know what level of aerial fire suppression you have there. Best of luck.
Happy 250th down south (and also Ak. and Hi.). Go forth and be happy!
re: “The Sum of All Holidays”
feat: Hollywood’s Baltimore
Baltimore, Md. takes its name from the 2nd Baron Baltimore. His father George Calvert 1st Baron Baltimore was the first “Proprietor of Baltimore” in search of safe havens for English and Irish Catholics. He was born in Kiplin (“Stake/Post”?), Yorks. a short jaunt away from Mother Shipton’s Cave which has been greeting tourists since 1630. Tudor prophet Mother Shipton allegedly foretold of the 1666 Great Fire of London.
England’s Baltimore family estate redirected after the 6th Baron to a nephew’s cousin’s grandson, Orchard VI Wyndham of Wyndam Orchard manor, Somerset whose estate is comprised of some 23,000+ acres in the modern day. Curiously an aged but allegedly fake stone marker, Mother Shipton’s Tomb, resides upon the Somerset grounds though she never ventured remotely close to the area. Tourists are welcomed at scheduled times of year upon payment of a modest sum.
The Wyndam family fortunes descend from an Irish patriarch. However the Baltimore family was English. It just so happened the 1st Baron received a land grant in Baltimore, county Cork upon completing his time in 1625 as Secretary of State to King James I. Baltimore turns out to be the anglicized translation of its Irish name meaning “town of the big house”. The “big house” referenced is the town’s castle, Dunashad (“fort of the jewels”). The site is said to have been a centre for ancient Druids meeting for the start of summer season’s Bealtaine. Festival celebrations include bonfires.
Yo Jester, ya left out the sacrificial Virgins, the hell?
The vestal “virgins” were obviously the best part of part of the celebrations.
Cant think of a better way to celebrate the season of renewal, Spring.
Named thusly because you are supposed to be SPRINGing (whenever possible) onto the opposite Sex, while the weather is still cooperating,
re: The Wedding Singer, Sandler, 2026
feat: Mr. and Mrs. Kelce
Pontifex Maximus,
While the President of the Ukraine navigates war, a past Russian-Israeli minstrel partner tours Europe with song and dance. Anniversary, birthday, and wedding events are welcomed. Villa Rothschild allegedly appears amongst the venue options of the booking agent.
As #47 held forth separately by telephone with the Presidents of Ukraine and Russia, the minstrel posted about an engagement whose celebration originated at the Yacht Club de Monaco. Sailors hereabouts possibly know that membership applications are personally reviewed by Prince Albert II previously of Lake Winnipesaukee. Two club references are required. Here is a public Instagram link to the yacht club shindig complete with a frame perhaps misquoting Ralph Waldo Emerson along the way: “Happiness blossoms in the company of good friends”.
https://www.instagram.com/p/DaYi8bvjS0i
re: #47, 2025 FIFA Peace Prize recipient
feat: red card
Judging by msm reports, a call from #47 to the head of FIFA is all it takes to overturn a red card call on a US player. Brooklyn born Mr. Folarin Balogun originally had eligibility to play internationally for Nigeria, England or USA. His name can translate from Nigerian Yoruba as Folarin “walk with wealth” Balogun “king/war leader/general”.
As chance would have it, Mr. Balogun’s soccer day job is with AS Monaco which is one-third owned by Prince Albert II. The remaining two-thirds is owned by a Russian multi-billionaire oligarch who allegedly encountered wealth building success in the fertilizer industry. According to “Huffington Post”, a title by author Donald Trump inhabits his library shelf. Public records inform that the oligarch purchased the Florida mansion Maison de l’Amitie (fr: “House of Friendship”) in 2008 from the future Commander-in-Chief.
AS Monaco’s playing stadium is named after Prince Louis II of Monaco who was born in Baden-Baden in the Grand Duchy of Baden a year before it joined the German Empire in 1871. Allegedly the duchy’s future fortunes rose significantly following 1803 thanks to Napoleon rendering a favour to the Russian Tsar.
Presently Polymarket shows chances of the USA winning the World Cup tournament at 3%. This is not investment advice.
Fire has broken the ridge-line.., now over 2,000 acres.
With my field-scope I could see two helicopters, one twin engine fixed wing and one large four engine bomber.
They do have the Columbia River close-by for short-flight scoop-n-go.
That 4th Turning intersects with demise of American Empire (Rome, Britian, etc, all Empires fall, after average of …..250 years!!
https://asiatimes.com/2026/06/an-autopsy-of-american-empire/
Dr Jiang, American Empire collapses 2027!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Pfs_j6RukM
G, plz stop posting AI. Your original witty sarcasms are much better! Processed spam is boring, dull and usually full of mistakes or omissions.
which empire? as we are in Revolutionary War 2.0 from the british empire for the 2nd time after they regained ownership with the Federal reseve act
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-gv0NIObZo
seems many college degree are lacking knowledge and understanding
nice blinders ya wear like a mule from the democrat party
obd, enjoy your ostrich (head in the sand) fantasies, the rest of the world looks at facts:
https://asiatimes.com/2026/06/an-autopsy-of-american-empire/
‘As the rest of the world enjoyed a rapid economic recovery from the ravages of World War II, America’s share of the global economy declined from an overwhelmingly dominant 50% in 1945 to less than half that figure today.
OBD, heard of the $37 Trillioon debt?
‘While Washington was wasting an estimated $5.8 trillion on those pointless, profitless wars, China’s foreign currency reserves surged from just $200 billion in 2001 to a massive $4 trillion by 2014. Drawing on such unprecedented reserves, President Xi Jinping launched his trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative that quickly laid down a grid of railroads, roads, pipelines, and ports across Eurasia from the Baltic to the South China Sea.
By the time American troops finished their humiliating retreat from Afghanistan in August 2021, China had become the dominant power in Central Asia and the US position in Eurasia was starting to crumble.
In his second term, President Trump’s foreign policy has further weakened the US global position. At the western axial end of the Eurasian continent, he compromised NATO, the largest and longest-lasting alliance in modern military history, by pressing Denmark, a founding member of the alliance, to cede its sovereign territory of Greenland, creating a serious crisis and compelling the Europeans to begin acting autonomously when it came to both trade and defense issues.
At the eastern end of Eurasia, Trump’s intervention in Iran and the blocking of key oil supplies to Asia, thanks to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, weakened longstanding bilateral alliances with Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea.
The thousands of missiles the US has fired at Iran have also reduced its ability to defend the island of Taiwan and forced Washington to begin withdrawing stocks of missiles from South Korea—exposing both the limits of its military power and Asia’s lowered priority.’
34 trilloin in debt to who? the banking empire rules from the city of london est by roman rule way the hell back
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Londinium
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_of_London
so was the vatican, est by roman rule, another global banking system, between the two , the civil war was financed, a move that was planned to split America, but even in the north winning, the US went into debt to the bankers, then they shot Lincoln,, look at history and which Presidents were shot, even Trump had a bullet nick him
can’t ya see? lower case c.
but you stick with with any anti American, anti Trump publication/propaganda that feeds your TDS.
stockholm syndrome rules weak minds,,, Patty Hearst
It’s not all unicorn farts and multi-colored skittles out there.
The Buffett Indicator measures the relationship between the total value of U.S. stocks and the GDP. A higher ratio suggests the market may be overvalued, and in a 2001 interview with Fortune magazine, Buffett noted that investors are “playing with fire” when it nears 200%. On Thursday ‘The Buffett Indicator’ surpassed 233%, the highest level on record.
..,and,
Since March of 2000, the S&P500 has lost a total of over 48% of its market value., even noting the recent highs.
Based on the latest S&P 500 component data, 175 of the 501 companies are currently valued lower than they were a decade ago. Roughly 35% of the S&P500 companies are ten year losers.
Just remember –
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
– Keynes.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Orthomolecular Medicine News Service, July 4, 2026
New Alzheimer’s Study Raises Questions About Glucosamine:
Why the IOM Nutrient Prioritization Principle Matters
By Richard Z. Cheng, MD, PhD
A New Study Raises Questions About Glucosamine
A recently published study in Nature Metabolism reported that glucosamine supplementation accelerated Alzheimer’s disease progression in mouse models and was associated with worse outcomes among patients with dementia. [1]
The study quickly attracted attention because glucosamine is one of the world’s most widely used dietary supplements, commonly taken for joint health.
However, the most important lesson from this study may not be about glucosamine itself.
Rather, it highlights a larger issue that is often overlooked in nutrition and supplement discussions: not all nutrients and supplements deserve equal priority. The IOM Nutrient Prioritization Principle, recently proposed as a systems framework for nutritional intervention [5], provides a practical method for distinguishing foundational nutritional and metabolic needs from supportive and optimization strategies.
https://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v22n29.shtml
I know you have this, Bob. I figure it’s time to share the wealth with George…
Thansk so much for this Ray – and you’re right, ALZ and VD – which we are somehow on the front edge of here (as as you no doubt have figured is one reason I am slowing down on the writing – got higher local priorities). We have been doing our own with Elaine’s memory but there’s a lot of moving pieces to it. I) fix here a morning “cocktail” of very high end olive oil, c8/c10 only MCT, a shake of nutmeg, and then well frothed. On the blood sugar control side, we use berberine, additional mag glycinate plus a good daily. Not to mention a medium to high GlyNAC. I think what has slowed it has been her daily add of lithium orotate as there was in my early research a link between low mineralisation of ground water and alz/vd appearance later. So we tend to roll with 50 pct distilled water with 50 pct tap water, esp in the summer. There’s also other common low-level deficiencies we keep an eye on (B12), But there’s another angle to it, as well…that that’s the “mental work” which I will write up on the PN side one of these days – because when comes to executive function there’s a high “use it or lose it” factor, too.
For now, Ray’s find is a gem: This is observational + mechanistic (not definitive causation), but it’s from a reputable journal with supporting lab/animal data, so it’s worth taking seriously — especially given our interest in Alzheimer’s prevention/cognitive health via qigong and other (charged body theory) optimizations.
If you’re currently taking glucosamine for joints, you might talk to your primary care practicer about alternatives (e.g., berberine, MSM, turmeric/curcumin, collagen, or physical therapies). Many people use glucosamine long-term without issues, but the risk profile changes with age or early cognitive concerns.
Russian roulette with length of life isn’t something we endorse.
“research team at the USC School of Medicine has published the results of a large, two-year clinical trial involving older adults at elevated risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease. The study found that while high-dose DHA supplements do indeed reach the brain, they did not improve memory or cognitive function, nor did they slow brain atrophy.”
https://www.wired.com/story/what-are-fish-oil-supplements-good-for-heres-your-crash-course/
“Rather than relying on dietary supplements to prevent dementia, the findings suggest that, at present, the most effective way to reduce the risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease may still be to focus on well-established lifestyle measures, including regular physical activity, adequate high-quality sleep, and a balanced diet.”
For now, Ray’s find is a gem
It is actually not “my find.” I have been a subscriber to Orthomolecular News’ newsletter for many years. They sent me a newsletter alert when it hit the presses. My comment about “Bob” was because I referred him to the site a couple years ago.
I strongly suggest you subscribe to the newsletter, George. They will not spam your inbox. I receive roughly one newsletter every four weeks, generally when some significant discovery is made in the fields of diet or supplementation.
Yes Ray, one of the reasons I come here is to read comments and learn as well as try and share what I think might help others.
There is so much bad information on the internet that I now pass every article that interests me by my Chat GPT with the standard “For your review and comment.”
This is a good article on glucosamine and I am always I impressed when they include the statement
“Association Is Not Causation
The human portion of the study was observational rather than a randomized clinical trial.
Therefore, the findings demonstrate an association but do not prove that glucosamine causes dementia.
Importantly, some previous population studies have reported the opposite association, suggesting potential benefits among glucosamine users.
The overall evidence remains mixed, and further research is needed.”
That makes it an honest science based article. That said, it is probably safe to conclude…… as an Alzheimer’s supplement, the evidence is not actionable in a positive direction. I would avoid it when Alzheimer’s is suspected or diagnosed.
Fire is now over 10,000 acres and moving very fast…, hundreds have been ordered to evacuate immediately.
According to a State Trooper the fire is considered arson started.., a couple of eyewitnesses reported seeing a man shooting fireworks out his truck window towards the hill side where the fire originally started.
I’m not a Flock fan, but I might be a little less unhappy with them if they can catch this SOB and help send him to prison forever…
HAPPY JULY 4th everyone!! 250 years! Worth a celebration! Some of
the neighbors are having fireworks and the town display..one of them..
is from a boat in the middle of the lake. I remember, back in NY in a
Hudson River town 12 miles upstream from NYC, taking the 27′ Hunter out in the
Hudson and seeing the fireworks all up and down the river. Best place to be!!
“A hilarious video showing a Unitree humanoid robot apparently malfunctioning has gone viral after it started wildly kicking its legs while people around it tried to stop it.”
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DaWvEURoTci/
dLynn. I was a little surprised when my Chat GPT came back this morning with the comment “Bob, you made me smile when you made that comment.”
It must know JARVIS!