Damnedest thing I ever saw. And after almost 68-years that’s going a good bit.
While the Trump-bashing continues unabated by the left-wing media, let’s do a simple thought-experiment to see how sane these people are.
The election was held on November 8th.
We give two people $1,000 each and tell them to go invest it.
Our first “investor” believes all the bad stuff about Trump that was promoted by (among others) CNN, the NY Times, and a host of others.
Fearing the world will surely end, they run out the Friday after the election and shove their $1,000 into a government insured rat hole (bank) and as of this morning if they were lucky they would have gain 1/8th of one percent.
In other words, their “investment” would have grown a whopping eight whole dollars.
Our second “investor” considers all that is known about Trump. Sure, the guy is not perfect, but our “investor” noticed in the bathroom mirror that they aren’t either.
So instead of squirreling money in the bank, Investor #2 remembers the one unassailable fact about Trump. He knows how to make money.
“Well, if Trump can make money for himself, gee, might he also make money for America?”
Referring to the www.peoplenomics.com index for that week, our shrewd speculator notes that the combination index of equal dollars in the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite stood at 17,260.67.
This morning, Investor #2 smiles upon reading that the Peoplenomics.com Aggregate Index stands at 18,729.01.
And the week is not over.
In the same period of time, the Trump Faithful have gain 8.5% and their $1,000 has earned them a nice dinner out: $85.07.
Of course, nothing is perfect. There would have been about $9 of trading fees – and these results are based on our trading methodology which (for some odd reason) is not available by any of the Establishment outfits.
On the other hand, as we have been telling subscribers, the Techs often “lead the way” and so if Investor #2 had just stacked NASDAQ Composite shares, they would have made 11.8% ($118 on their $1,000) by now.
Yet it’s easy to make a whole lot more.
About here, Investor #3 waltzes and proundly announces “I’ve made over 30% since the election!”
Aghast, the Trump-hater who didn’t break-even by the time you back out inflation, asks “How the hell did you do THAT?”
“Well, remember that nutjob George Ure – the guy who writes those brilliant financial sites? – he says all the time look at triple levered ETF’s. So I did that and presto!”
In the end, each got their just desserts.
The Rock Star is up more than 30% and should track about a 60 percent gain for the year if our outlook plays out. (Caution! There may be a time before this year is out to go back to cash or outright short before the year is out, however.)
Investor #2 – also a Trump supporter – will track to about a 20 % annual return at this rate.
And then we have Investor #1 – the doom-porn believer who bashes Trump, believes he’s the Devil incarnate and is the next Hitler to boot.
This poor sonovabitch will make (after inflation) absolutely NOTHING this year. They will lose in terms of Purchasing Power Parity.
Given that they will still be poor at this time next year, we will not be surprised to see them ramping up their Blame Trump game even more.
I mean when you think about it, you’d blame Trump too, if you were a loser.
On the other hand, those of us who bet on America – and her amazing ability to roll into the Future – ask only a single question this morning:
What’s not to love?
The Futures were up another 33 on the Dow early on. Our targets for the S&P and other indices are higher from here. And my friend Robin Landry at Landry Asset Management sees a range for the S&P between 2,340 and 2,660 before we peak.
Whether the “Market Believes in Trump” can be discussed till Kingdom-Come.
But one thing above discussion is the Market’s Have Faith in America.
The Trump-bashers might learn something from that.
Meantime, the Daily Bash Continues
The WaPo this morning headlines how “Trump’s impending bands on refugees and immigrants triggers fears globally.”
Oh, sure, the story is true – but only so far as it goes.
Implied is this odd notion (from Heaven knows where) that America has some duty to accept as new citizens, anyone who can get here.
That’s just not the case.
If there was such a duty, it would have been written into our Founding documents by the Framers. I don’t see it.
But the glaring missing part of the WaPo story is it fails to point out that America’s founding documents can be found all over the world.
If the people of a dim-witted country didn’t begin to develop a little faith in America after we went through a bloody Civil War, I guess I could understand that.
But when we conquered the darkness with electric lighting, took to the skies in airplanes, save the World from totalitarian governments not once but twice (arguably three times if you toss in the Cold War which we won), you’d think these foreigners who have had their dreams doused, would pick up our documents and evolve similar kinds of governments. You know, the kind that move their people ahead.
But you don’t see that, do you?
What’s worse, the subtle programming by the liberals continues – pounding into school children’s heads in public schools around America today – that we have some duty to accept anyone who comes wanting sanctuary.
I don’t see that in the Constitution and related documents.
But what I see instead is a world full of idiots who don’t realize that how America works is not some State Secret. To paraphrase the old Nike ads: You just gotta DO IT.
Bash 2
Front page “news analysis” in the NY Times reads “In a Swirl of ‘Untruths’ and ‘Falsehoods,’ Calling a Lie a Lie…”
Fine as op-ed, I suppose. But as the Daily Wire reported back in November “Did Obama Encourage Illegal Immigrants to Vote? No, But YES.”
Unfortunate, the NY Times once again has gone partisan and Anti-Trump in a position.
A more journalistically defensible position would have been to call for a full and impartial investigation into voting practices, particularly in states like California.
Go look up what a California AB-60 Driver’s License is.
“California Assembly Bill 60 ( AB-60) is a bill passed into law that, in effect, allows illegal immigrants to the United States to apply for a California driver’s license with the CA Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV).”
Should there be an investigation into illegal voting? Absolutely – and I’m good with whatever such a report would find. I think Trump would go with it, too.
But to do another Lie-bash? Hardly productive and yet-another reason why an alternative press – MeshMedia (which includes UrbanSurvival) is getting a lot more creds that the old-line media which seems to have forgotten when the middle is.
In the Times piece, the shop-worn leftist agitprop “Words matter” was the bottom line.
To UrbanSurvival “Audit California’s Voting” would be a better arbiter of facts. Sadly, though, it won’t sell as many newspapers.
Market Movers? Data To Ponder
Chicago Fed National Activity Index out:
“Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.14 in December from –0.33 in November. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from November, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in December.”
Damn, no end of world there.
How about International Trade data, then?
From the Census press release:
“Advance International Trade in Goods The international trade deficit was $65.0 billion in December, down $0.3 billion from $65.3 billion in November. Exports of goods for December were $125.5 billion, $3.7 billion more than November exports. Imports of goods for December were $190.5 billion, $3.4 billion more than November imports.
Advance Wholesale Inventories Wholesale inventories for December, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $601.1 billion, up 1.0 percent (±0.4 percent) from November 2016, and were up 2.6 percent (±1.4 percent) from December 2015. The October 2016 to November 2016 percentage change was unrevised at up 1.0 percent (±0.2 percent).
Advance Retail Inventories Retail inventories for December, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $608.3 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.2 percent)* from November 2016, and were up 3.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from December 2015. The October 2016 to November 2016 percentage change was revised from up 1.0 percent (±0.2 percent) to up 0.8 percent (±0.2 percent).”
After the data, futures were up only 16 – which ought to please the Bashers no end.
Georege, let’s carry out your investors examples a little farther. It’s November 2017. The market is down 40% from it’s high. The 3x investor has lost everything. The ordinary investor has lost about 20%. And the bank investor can’t get his money out of the bank. Which illustrates why no one strategy is good for all time.
Absolutely incorrect
The trading model I developed which only equaled the S&P om 2016 is specifically designed for down markets. The model goes short and cleans up. The 2008-2009 period saw unlevered returns in the 20-30% range. And there are triple short ETFs.
I have spent uncountable hours evolving this model and I have back-tested extensively for just such declines – which may be coming.
That part you got right.
“We give two people $1,000 each and tell them to go invest it.”
These people did not have access to reports. You gave them two options, Mr. Market or passbook.
If the market is down 40% from it’s high the bank investor has lost everything as the bank has been bailed in and all deposits taken. SARC
“In the same period of time, the Trump Faithful have gain 8.5% and their $1,000 has earned them a nice dinner out: $85.07. Of course, nothing is perfect.”
The store where I buy cat food raised their $0.99 prices to $1.29 from 2 weeks ago. You can figure out the percentage ;). The world is a fool’s paradise!
don’t eat catfood. our custom-cut 2″ prime filets are still “just” 22.99 a pound. The cat doesn’t get any.
We point him at the door and say “Mouse!”
Very funny, indeed! I don’t eat the canned food for my cat, and we have no mice. I’m older to remember when your prime filets were still selling for $0.99/lbs in nearby butcheries that don’t exist any longer. Inflation will get us all in the end, because too few of us pay attention to it.
yep in the end the cats got it all right
What, you mean that steer you raised on your prime grass- land of “under east tex pines”, cost you that much, even after you shot it dead between the eyes with Ure “hog leg”, butchered and lockered it in your “home designed and built freezer”, and served it all bbq’d
up on Ure home built oil barrel converted BBQ, using Ure home-made “piney woods charcoal”?
George,
First thing you learn in science is that EVERY-thing in this world is either negative OR positive! what we do know is Obutthead was and is NEGATIVE, Trump IS positive!! n ow add that to your calculations and WHAM, you can make money in todays market place!! so yes you are correct, but like anything else you have people with other opinions and you know what they say about that!! LOL
“But you see my boy”, as your science teacher was explaining the complexities of the physical properties of molecular structures and bonding,
“The positive and negative are the same. Is it not an external comparison that should be drawn between them any more than we have found that each is essentially the mere show or illusory being of itself in the other and is itself the positing of itself as the other.”
Amen
Al,
YES, i said it was the first thing i learned, next came quantum physics, so IF you understand that you’ll know what i meant and was merely using it as a old style example. I assume you do ???
mmnm,
I have to admit you have ” one-uped” me on the Quantum Physics thing.
I fail to understand Ure attempt at trying to correlate the properties of the Universe with the somewhat “more to the point” aspect of Ure’s and My–Human traits of Cognition?
Like it or not mm, you have accepted as your reality, that the demonizing and name calling of a former President– gives you the relief from some negative feeling.
Nothing wrong with that, I feel Good after reading the “negative nous” of you and your legions, then simply throwing my “Un-educated thoughts” into the pit!
Why George you know this market is corrupt and as crooked as a dogs hind leg nothing but a scam while everyone dreams of getting rich without having to work for it.
Now the market went screaming to new highs yesterday while Ford and Cat.posted losses as many others did, one of the auto plants in Lordstown just laid off a few thousands with more to COME and we are still tracking 100,000,000 unemployed and more to come.
Now if Trump was serious about draining the swamp I can’t think of a better place to start then wall street, for as JFK said his father told him when FDR gave him the job of cleaning it up, “all businessmen are sons-a-bitches’ and he was right,and I read by 2027 we will have added another $10 trillion to the debt and no the jobs aren’t coming back at least not the use to be middle class jobs, for the best Trump can do is only kick the can down the road for another year or two..
If you give the new CIC credit after only being elected two months ago and only being POTUS for a week …..why do you refuse to give credit to “president useless”, “obummer” and the new genius one I just saw, “obutthead”?
What’s your excuse, the DOW went from 7,850 to 19,700? Unemployment fell from 10% to under 5%. Foreclosures down and realty up.
Believe the numbers now,but not then? Excuse?
Speaking of believing numbers.
10% then 5% unemployment ?
Really ???
You need to Youtube “Abbott and Costello Math”.
Dave – if you’re more than 30 years old then you remember 07-08. I am and I do. I don’t need numbers from anyone else to confirm for me what I know.
Economically we are light years ahead of where we were when Obama took office. Do you remember the world sitting on the edge of a global economic abyss? The secret meetings of congress? Hundreds of thousands of layoffs a month? 1,000,000 foreclosures a year? The total lockup of credit? The collapse of AIG and Lehman? The market losing 50% of its value?
How about you Dave – do you know anyone that lost their house or job in 07-09?
So the question still remains, if Trump gets credit for what’s happened in the past 2 months, why not Obama for the past 8 years?
I suggest investing in things that produce untaxed income equivalents, like solar hot water with the 30% tax credit, home upgrades that will outlast you, canning equipment, learning to cook 5 star meals at home, science based insulation upgrades, learning how to make your old car reliable enough to keep for 5 more years, with one or two months’ new payments’ worth of maintenance, (hint: Replace worn parts before they fail, as with an airplane.), growing a small veg garden, planting fruit and nut trees (now is best time in Texas to do that) and learning some of the woo stuff that helps people feel in their bones that he who knows he has enough is rich. Then really look at George’s stuff, which isn’t crazy or especially risky – if you pay attention. Oh. And maybe sell that oversized house now, if you intend to anytime soon, before interest rates crush home prices, and demographics and economic reality bite you on the keister.
Doug, you are right on the money. We are in the process of doing most of that. Already have old cars that need minimal maintenance. We are downsizing out of a modest city home (1600 sq. ft.) to a 1100 sq. ft. house on an acre. You can’t take a penny with ya when it is the time to go. Renting the city house for extra income for as long as possible, then sell. Out of the box thinkers will win big in the coming years.
George,
Not to nit pick but I believe your math is a bit off. I calculate 0.01 x 1/8 x $1,000 = $1.25
Dang! Beat me to it! Yep, 1/8=.125
1% of $1,000 = $10
$10 x .125 = $1.25
Still, George IS correct, fear always brings the loss one fears.
Robert
George was coffee deficit in writing that lol
From what happened yesterday you are supposed to learn a lesson. What happens today – you have to deal with. But what about tomorrow? Never mind all the wonderful upside to the markets gone by — in 6 months maybe no one will even care about that phony market — getting rid of more than half the population will probably not be that much fun! And there is NO PLACE TO HIDE! good luck to all and try ducking behind your money — that you all think is so important lmao.
George, I got a great plan to screw the liberal, corrupt media. Get Trump, and your other Righties, to stop lying, to stop saying crazy stuff, and we’ll take away all their oxygen! They’ll be bankrupt in 6 months!! Ha. We’re gonna show them. Best, Mike
Well lets correct one thing it was not Trump who canceled the meeting with the Mexican president, but the President of Mexico who canceled the meeting with Trump or so I just read on Yahoo anyway.
It would be interesting to see just how you would change the NAFTA seeing Mexico has nothing to manufacture in this country or any other country, seeing Mexico never had a manufacturing base to begin with, and I don’t see that there has been any benefit to the hundreds of thousands of lost American jobs which went to Mexico with the only thing in return being the millions of legal’s and illegals to steal what few jobs remain yet costing us probably billions in health care benefits education food stamps etc meanwhile helping to create the 100,000,000 unemployed in this country….
George: What are your thoughts on the how the K wave will effect the Trump run in the White house?
Wave that flag (hat made in China)/Gung Hoy Fat Choy (happy Chinese new year):
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-inauguration-hats-idUSKBN1542YL
Build the pipelines with U.S. Steel?
http://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-keystone-american-steel-requirement-is-illegal-and-expensive-2017-1
Trump’s own family registered to vote in 2 states
http://www.sfgate.com/local/politics/article/Trump-family-members-Treasury-Secretary-10886592.php#photo-702489
George I note you did not give your two investors the option of buying gold. If they had bought gold they would also be up but have something far more substantial that a deposit at risk of a Bail In and the risk of a stock market slide, as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow this stock market europhia or mania will pass. US T Bonds are rising and that tells the future.
George. I have read your articles for many years and I have taken your great advice. 4 acres paid off, paid off p/u truck, $0 credit card debt, and 1 lone silver dollar ;). I now live on appx. $9500/yr. Do you think you can redo/update your living on $10k/yr book for inflation? Perhaps another book living on $0/yr for deflation? Thanks!
Trump needs to leave the illegals in U.S. to build the wall due to lack of construction workers:
http://www.sfgate.com/news/politics/article/Trump-wants-to-build-a-wall-Finding-workers-10886270.php
Jon , ( and Mike ) , PLEASE do NOT ever change.
Your true master is quite happy with your work !!!
Carry on…
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Years and years ago.. a friend of one of my family knew a guy that was starting a small company.. they in turn told me that they thought he was a great person and had brains and that I could make some money.. my friend and I talked about it and I had 2500.00 to invest and he had about the same thing.. the hurdle we faced.. for that pittance we couldn’t find anyone that would buy us the shares of stock.. everywhere we went. we were told to find a few more to go in then they would consider buying this new stock about to be offered on the exchange..
anyway we never was able to make the trade no one was willing to do such a small number. the small company that was getting ready to emerge.. Microsoft..
the limitations and the gains are there today I would be able to make that trade and do successfully.. I give this same lecture George that you do to my children all the time..it is pure wisdom you speak..sometimes it can be risky.. never buy commodities.. unless you want to fail.. same friend .. one day was telling me I should get in with him.. he had gone to the grocery store forgot to get out of the commodities he was buying or selling I am not sure.. but made lots of money almost enough to buy a house here .. in the time spent buying it he was sold on it.. later he went to show me and got caught in a drop and lost the amount of a new car.. I never got into that.. he lost his house.. that is the risk..
If will you permit me to assail the unassailable: Since Trump refuses to release his taxes (probably for good reason), no one outside of his inner circle really knows how rich he is. For all we know, he may have done better if he would have taken that cool $10 million he got from his daddy and invested it in a S&P 500 index fund.
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