The Fed’s Little Housing Problem Just Got Bigger

Should be considered in light of the Case-Shiller, S&P Housing report just out:

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported 1.0% annual change in July, up from a 0% change in the previous month. The 10- City Composite showed an increase of 0.9%, which improves from a -0.5% loss in the previous month.

The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 0.1%, improving from a loss of -1.2% in the previous month.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index,10-City and 20-City Composites, all posted a 0.6% month-over-month increase in July.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.6%, while the 10-City posted a 0.8% increase and 20-City Composite a 0.9% increase.

ANALYSIS
“U.S. home prices continued to rally in July 2023,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “Our National Composite rose by 0.6% in July, and now stands 1.0% above its year-ago level. Our 10- and 20-City Composites each also rose in July 2023, and likewise stand slightly above their July 2022 levels.

Now look at this chart and answer me a simple question:

When the price of housing is going up at a 7.44 percent annualized (monthly gain compounded to annual) does the Fed have any choice but to raise – maybe a half a percent, not a lousy quarter?

Ergo, the market should collapse in a heap because we are getting into the area that the dime-store MBA told you would be the Fed betting against itself as inflation becomes self-reinforcing.

Which is why at 6 AM today in the extended hours, I bought a lot of a 3X short index fund because the rest of this week could get brutal. The trade before the open was already up 90 bucks on an 800 share lot.

Today is Charmin for the Bulls Day.

Write when you get rich…

George@Ure.net

8 thoughts on “The Fed’s Little Housing Problem Just Got Bigger”

  1. https://youtu.be/VqFwo4g_X7g?si=1t9f8RFg6yBLroZx
    Now ADD
    https://youtu.be/z3l-cCLUtmM?si=7iHUWqojBm8nzU8V
    STU what was the quatrain given that said weather changes on the 49th parallels
    add both of those together and you may see another hundred year storm and more outages this winter.. then IF he shuts down the natural and propane gas lines like he has said he will.. it will be a taste of hell in the USA…
    https://energycommerce.house.gov/posts/biden-s-burdensome-regulations-are-shutting-down-american-refineries

    https://www.sullivan.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/sullivan-biden-admin-shutting-down-american-energy-with-one-exceptioninterior-secretarys-home-state

    Hmm.. now if you don’t have a backup power system.. how will you stay warm.. what do you use that uses electricity..

    • I never wrote anything about the 49th parallel, but in 2007 and 2010, I did write a great deal about weather wars.

      The Age of Desolation, 2007/2010 Page 130
      The winter of 2009 and 2010 aligns with Norse Mythology; I believe it is the beginning of Fimbulvetr, The Great Winter. We are seeing extremes in weather across the globe. The weather wars of Nostradamus’ Third Antichrist have begun.

      Norse myth calls this period Fimbulvetr, the Great Winter. The three years of Fimbulvetr will lead to Ragnarök and the final battle, when gods and men will fight together on the battlefield Vígríðr.

      The Age of Desolation, 2007/2010 Page 349
      There will be extremes in weather around the globe that I believe will be induced by warfare with Directed Energy Weapons. The Norse called the men and women that survive this period Líf and Lífthrasi.

      NORWAY LIGHT SPIRAL

      Nostradamus Quatrain VI-5
      So great a famine by a pestilent wave,
      By rain extending the length of the Arctic Pole:
      Samarobryn one hundred leagues [135 miles] from the hemisphere,
      Living without law exempt from politics.

      NOBEL PEACE PRIZE CEREMONY AND THE WINTER OF 2009-2010

      Nostradamus Quatrain X-71
      The earth and air will freeze a great [jet] stream,
      When they will come to venerate Thursday [Thursday, December 10, 2009],
      He who is not at all is not so nice [peaceful],
      From the four parts [of the world] they will come to honor him.

      LASER WARFARE

      Nostradamus Sixain XXVII
      Celestial fire from the side of the West,
      From the South, running to the Levant [East],
      Worms half dead without finding a root.
      Third Age of Mars the warlike [World War III],
      From carbuncles [Lasers] one will see brilliant fire,
      The age of the carbuncle [Laser] and in the end famine.

    • Cliff’s old work had multiple indications of being ABOVE the 40th parallel, or BELOW the 40th parallel, I don’t remember which and don’t have time to go through his old reports.

      Maybe George can chime in …. but my thoughts are they indicated that you wanted to be ABOVE the 40th parallel since Cliff himself now lives ABOVE the 40th parallel from what I gather.

      • Wave 4 of 5? On this scale anyways….

        Just sold our place in WA. Hope the closing and funding goes through!

        It was a countrywide foreclosure from 2009. A straight up 3 bagger (and the utility of a very nice home and acreage ) Now if I can cash in the chips before the casino closes! I am running a little late on this one, George. Too close for comfort.

        Gone defensive. IF you can hold onto your cash, and IF the fed does not inflate it away, There will be comparatively cheap housing prices in the near future.

        Lather, rinse, repeat.

  2. Housing can go up.

    “At the end of 2021, a homebuyer with a monthly mortgage budget of $2,500 could afford a home worth up to $517,500. But for the four-week period ending June 15, 2022, that same homebuyer could only afford a home worth up to $399,750 — a $120,000 drop in purchasing power. ”

    Today the UAW is on strike.

    “Biden backs 40% UAW pay raise”

    If the UAW gets the 40% raise the $2,500 monthly mortgage budget is now 40% more or $3,500.

    @ the 6.42 % mortgage rate the buyer can spend up to 600K now.

    All the plates keep spinning.

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