The Capitulation Question Continues

There is a dandy quote in “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends” (Edwards & Magee, 7th ed. 1998, p. 493) that goes like this:

“C. If you are not committed in the stock.  Consider a penetration and close beyond the limit of the correction between  the Tops (or Bottoms) as a signals of a Reversal, and make new commitments on rallies or reactions.”

If you don’t have a copy of “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends” it’s now in its 11th edition and it’s $80 bucks. We don’t buy one every year, but like the “Stock Trader’s Almanac 2019,” it’s one of those books you buy every five years, or so.  Look for the changes and keep your wits (and cash) about you.

When the assembled multitude was by yesterday morning, I was giving you numbers of our Aggregate Markets work.  Those were looking like a massive Double Top was possible, and sure enough, the Aggregate closed yesterday’s session at 25,006.64.

We would sure like to see that one hold.  Because the previous peak in the Aggregate was 25,006.29 back on October 3 of last year.

What would be totally graceful would be a close today around 24,956 which would be a small decline.  Because that would “mirror” the weeklyt close (and high for the period) of 24,936.71 that happened Friday, September 21 of last year.

What would be even cooler would be a close below that, and next week’s close coming in like that because that would make an almost perfect “mirror” formation.

My friend J.B. Slear of told me about this “mirror” idea across long, rounding tops several years ago.  On the way up, we had a weekly high close about 2-weeks before the dfaily high was set,  The mirror on  the way down MIGHT see the mirror of the September 25,006.29 which happened yesterday.  And it would be dandy to see the weekly “mirrored” today or next Friday if this turns out to be a Reversal.

That’s unknown, of course.  So while we scalped a little lunch money in day trades this week, our level of commitment to any outcome remains – as I’ve told you before – uncaring.  We need some convincing movement either in new all-time highs if you’re going higher, or a solid downside break to which we can apply some of the trading tools like the Elliott Wave forecasting spreadsheet that our subscribers can pick up from the Master Index page.

That’s not a real complicated tool. (I mean come on!  Consider who wrote it, right?)  But the idea is that if you see a clear first wave (under Elliott) a spreadsheet can make an “educated guess” at how the Wave 2 (or B) will work out.  And if you have completed 1 and 2 (or AS and B) waves, then the C becomes more probable and you can estimate exit points to take some of the trade off at various targets.

We don’t offer trading advice – ever.  But, trading is sure a lot easier than buying an airplane ticket to Vegas.  It’s “the legal numbers racket” which the government approves of because they get their slices.

OK…that’s all “living in the background” as Baltimora might have sung it.

What matters now, going forward is whatever happens next.

So, Here’s What’s Next

A couple of data points.  The first being the Federal Reserve H.6 money stocks report.  Here’s the most recent reading:

“Thirteen weeks ending April 15, 2019 from thirteen weeks ending: Jan. 14, 2019 (13 weeks previous)  M1 +3.1% annualized rate and M2  +4.0% annualized rate”

Which means what, exactly?

The Fed, looks to us, is trying to figure out how to keep the market afloat but not soaring crazy into screaming new all-time highs.  After all, that would be political fuel for the Trump side and it would be back for the Taxacrats – all 30 of ’em who have announced their wannabe status already.  (We expect more – since there’s no limits on stupid).

The other side – if the money supply was held too tight, it would riase the cost of borrowing (higher rates) and the (stock) market would drop and money sought higher and arguable more reliable returns from the (bond) market.

With all this to consider, the next economic touchstone of the day is the GDP report just released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The Bureau’s first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The “second” estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 30, 2019.

Or, if you do better with pictures:

Just so you remember the economics here:  M2 Year on Year is up 3.9% and GDP is measured in dollars, was there really any growth or is it just a papering-over game?  (Come on, I’ve been dropping hints all over the place!)

After the data, the Dow futures were up a bit.  But, with things like Housing data coming early next week (Tuesday) and the “Sell in May and go away” period just ahead, trying to outguess the market is a fools game.

Which may explain why I enjoy it so much.;

Useless Distractions

As upright animals, who do a credible job of imitating those chimpanzee’s who surf Instagram, in keeping with our labeling of humankind as “button pressing apes” the real mystery continues to be a Yoda-like question:  What is the meaning of life?

Nothing else really matters, after all..  So when we paw through the news machines, we wonder “Where’s the gold to be panned from these stories?”

Admitted Russian Agent Butina to Be Sentenced in U.S., Faces Deportation.  A hero’s welcome and a nice dacha?  Or, into the penalty box (at Lubyanka) for failing?

Meantime, in Spy vs. Spy territory: Head of FSB’s Secretive Unit Detained for Bribery – Reports.  Open desk, perhaps?

No, it’s NOT climate change as A deadly storm pushes east.  Around here we call it Spring weather.  Although we were kind of hoping Al Gore might visit Detroit this weekend – where unseasonable snow is expected.  More details in the D-FREEP.

People’s ability to think clearly is in total free-fall when you see headlines like this one.  “Climate change worsens economic inequality, scientists say.”  So does a college degree…so WTF?

Meantime, the weather continues: Storm Hannah to bring gales and heavy rain to Ireland.

And, you know crime is a real pain-in-the-ass when Theft of 18 colonoscopes worth $450G under probe, police say.

While the border war with Mexico simmers, Trump to receive immigration plan favoring high skills over family ties, Kushner says.  Does this mean ICE will stop dumping 1,400 illegals a day on ‘Merican streets?  No.

Interesting report for Peoplenomics subscribers (first of two parts) now that the US Navy patents on anti-gravity technology are coming out.  Part 1 will deal with the theory side while part 2 next week will cover the economic roll.

So, moron the morrow

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George Ure
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30 thoughts on “The Capitulation Question Continues”

  1. Sorry George but the GDP report is a lot like the BLS report subject to revision on down the road, where the fraudulent figure’s no longer matter,as for the stock market or suckers market that in itself has no validity as its corrupted by the Fed. and the high rolling players themselves,which leaves little else but a hallowed out financial system that fails to serve any useful purpose.

    Reading this morning where Bannon,Price (black water) and a billionaire hedge fund operator have started a school in Italy,teaching Fascism and Nazism which its disciples will spread all over the world as part of their new world order I presume, while we spend our time worrying about an election far far down the road and who’s going to be the candidates, which unknown to them will be well known in advance to those who fund them,its just the American way.!!!

    • It’s funny you mention Bannon…last summer, I was in Sorrento, Italy and who do AI see with another woman at a restaurant? Steve Bannon…He was there on a bit of R&R, after helping with the elections in Italy. Bannon has been trained in fascism. And to think…not surprisingly, that he was the master mind behind the Facist we now call POTUS. The following is from Israelis newspaper, Haaretz.

      For Bannon, organizing populist parties is “no different from Goldman Sachs” or when he started his own financial services firm – “it’s just a different conference room.” That’s the story, at least, that he fed Alison Klayman in her documentary The Brink, which followed Bannon from the aftermath of the disastrous 2017 alt-right protest in Charlottesville to the beginning of 2019.

      The Brink sheds light on a strategy of collaboration across the far right that, by Bannon’s own admission, openly exploits anger and resentment. While identified as “populism” for its emotive appeals, Bannon’s strategy is forged in expensive hotels, in conversations with former Goldman Sachs head John Thornton, on private jets, and in the mansions of billionaires.

      Bannon is a mass of contradictions, a self-marketeer supreme and narcissist whose grandiose visions are often mirages or spin.

      He is a counter-revolutionary who considers himself a constituent part of a new French Revolution, a Catholic who targets the Pope, a purported populist who believes nothing can be accomplished without control over the government’s appropriations process, and a widely detested figure who believes he has his finger on the pulse of the “zeitgeist.”

      He is part of an ecosystem of far-right inciters and grifters who see themselves both as running the world and fighting a courageous uphill battle to take power. But he’s helping Europe’s far right decant its tired formulas into new bottles for popular consumption. 

      In one telling scene in The Brink, Bannon sits in an expensive Venetian hotel with a representative of the Brothers of Italy, a “post-fascist” successor to Mussolini’s Italian Social Movement. Guardian associate editor Paul Lewis tells Bannon that he had previously called the Brothers a “neo-fascist” party.

      In fact, in a 2018 Guardian interview, Bannon had called the Brothers, hardly disparagingly, “one of the old fascist parties,” and went on: “We’re partnering with parties that are going to become quite mainstream, over time.”
      To credit Bannon alone with the incremental successes of the European far right’s political and religious crusade would be internalizing his own narrative as the continent’s great savior; but there’s no doubt he’s helped birth a new, and threatening, spirit of transnational co-operation, funding, and incitement to a neo-fascist spectrum from America to the Old World.

      • Do YOU feel being left-out by the brothers?

        Just saying, ;-) because much of what you’re posting couldn’t be more Facist, IMHO!! Not that I mind; They too have a right to be heard.

      • That’s not surprising about Bannon or his love for Fascism a wet dream for the 1% (much like it is now) ever since 1980 everything has been done for the business/banking sector,nothing for the working class except lower wages little to no benefits, off-shoring of jobs endless cuts in regulations which protected the people and large increase in poverty.Now this is not strange in America by any means in the depression of 29 many in the business/banking sector in the New England States advocated an overthrow of the government to usher in Fascism,which they said was perferable to the present government, Butler would be their lead man, until he told them that if they raised 500 he would raise 5,000 and kick their arse,point being that you will always have people like Bannon Price, Pense people of the 1% who think due to their wealth or religious convictions that they have the moral right to change the country to their own image of the ultra-right wing group that controls America.!!!

      • Note to Ray:

        Really? So unfortunate you didn’t pass sixth grade – I knew by fourth grade who Nazis were (I loved to read!!). I’d stick to more simple subjects, like spotting lying presidents!

      • The leftists have spent the last 70 years trying to rewrite history to make Hitler & Mussolini into right-wing extremists. I can’t wait to hear of Stalin and Lenin being derided as right-wing reactionaries. I suppose this is all relative- all that I have mentioned were well to the right of our Bernie, Maxine, and Axella O-C.

      • Don’t go lumping Stalin with Hitler (and the right-wing!) – while both were murderous tyrants, their excuses for why they were in power were from different crazy ideas. Extreme people on either right or left (Stalin) cause hate and death.

      • I agree that Stalinists and Fascists were different flavors of mass murdering leftist sociopaths. The point that you might have missed is that the post-WWII leftists have tried to distance themselves from the fascist movement by calling it “right wing”, which it was never. Fascists were and are a socialist movement. I’m just saying, if it worked for the Nazi leftist PR nightmare, then why won’t the leftists try it with the communist Stalinists next. All of this effort to do historical rewrites of the actual track record of the always totalitarian leftist regimes is part of an ongoing PR effort whose goal is to create an image of the kinder gentler leftist single-party totalitarianism in preparation for the big push in 2020 to send the USA down the leftist tubes. Apologies for any insinuation that real right wingers are leftists, although you must concede, there are a cadre of leftist brown shirt wrongies trying to portray themselves as righties these days in government, in corporate America, and on the street. Any reading of this which indicates I am calling out any particular individual is not what I intended. I will do that in other posts when the opportunity arises.

  2. G- too funny U having lucid dreams about mobsters getting shot up in Canada.Imagine there is a mob shooting every week in the US.
    Used to cost bout $1 million for a “contract” hit by a “outsider”. I wonder what the rate of inflation is for contract killings these days..30 years later?
    As the majority of readers here are intelligent, clear thinking folks..Mark/Mike/Jon excluded..Im sure they have already perused Mensa World Journal (Iss.077, June2019, P.6) Authored by one of my fav Intelligence Analysts – Micheal Shrimpton..who latest analysis on Notre Dame and Sri Lanka all point to our friends the Jerries..DVD. Germans luv to burn down churches with people inside. Who won the WAR (WW2) AGAIN?
    No not what the history books say, what actual HISTORY shows.
    France did not go along with the Germany 1 year Brexit Delay, they wanted shorter. Germans had already scouted out Notre Dame and Eiffle tower in 44, and had plans to blow up until DeGaulle came on board = human compromise ..turns out he was a RumpWrangler..

    • I actually get a more stimulating mind expanding thought provoking experience reading urbansurvival and peoplenomics than I ever did reading Brainwave…

  3. Hate google adds, just counted 9 on first three pages. Are you so
    Desperate for money you are doing this? This is tiring and frustrated. Count me gone at renewal time..

    • 1. There are absolutely no ads on the Peoplenomics side.
      2. Would people pay 10-cents a day to read UrbanSurvival?
      2. The ads on UrbanSurvival only pay for the site’s overhead. I don’t mind tossing in my free getting up every day, but I also am not compelled to donate more than I already do.
      That said, people don’t value that which is free.

      • I get a real chuckle George..after you wrote about the majors slippers vanishing..( right under that was a picture on an ad of boots in a box.
        The same ad has been on since.
        What would really make a woo woo event is if after he returns home .they are sitting there on his bed or wherever he packed his bag.
        I had an issue with a coffee cup a few years ago that had me searching for it lol.

      • I never thought I’d say it, but I’m starting to look forward to the day you go straight PN. Separate the serious from the curious, as my dad liked to say. Your site seems to be attracting more and more flies of late.

      • George…..
        I for one totally appreciate urban survival more than you will ever know.. your posts are thought provoking, interesting,deep and yet at times have a humorous twist…

        When I first discovered your site many years ago. I was in a situation where my workaholic lifestyle had my body attacking itself.
        They didn’t then or now have a foggy clue why. They thought everything from bone cancer to neuromyolytis optica.. now it was suspected as pancreatic cancer.and some more serious issues. luckily it isn’t just another odd thing that no one has a clue why.
        I was in so much pain back then and not enough books to keep my mind busy all I had on the ebook reader was a thousand…i wasn’t able to get out of chair much less walk anywhere. then an acquaintance suggested urban survival.
        The posts were thought provoking and in depth. That first year I don’t know if I could have survived if it wasn’t for your site and generosity it kept my mind busy.
        Thank you for that..
        Then after that the insurance companies were trying to kick me off healthcare insurance. It was a nightmare.. then when Medicare cuts came they downsized all the senior employees. We only had what little bit that medical cuts didn’t take. Again there was urban survival and the wisdom you share with all of us. I was able to keep myself busy feeling the comfort of being able to reflect on deeper issues and hopefully glean enough information to survive what is coming.
        So from a bottom feeder.. your site holds more importance than you could know.

        • In an odd way, it’s a kind of “karmic deal with God/Universe.”

          My side of the deal is to do the work. HIS side of the deal is to cover b asic oep;raqting costrs and what works out to a 6-pack a week, lol.

          But that’s why Peoplenomics and UrbanSurvival are still here and thank you for visiting!@

    • The paid side peoplenomics is where you sign up for content with less ads. Free information is paid for by ads normally associated with a loss of a bit of privacy. That has been the case in the US forever. You cannot be that new to the Internet to not understand that fact. Maybe you are part of one of the new progressive/socialist groups growing rapidly in the US, thinking there is still is a something for nothing economic model that is sustainable. If you want something expect to pay for it with your time, money, or privacy, don’t expect others to provide you with goods or services for free.

    • LH,

      The Internet moves fast.

      For free today get Adblock Plus. Make sure to get the right ad-on because if you don’t you’ll be displeased.

      Do you have malware/intrusion protection?

  4. George, another good piece on economics. Nice.

    And, thankfully, no cheerleading on anti-climate issues. (Hopefully it’s a trend, as it simply speaks to the Conservative’s deliberate insulation from facts and lack of commonsense.)

    And no cheerleading on Trump either!! Wonderful. (Still not get how you can abide his actively watering down your US dollar.)

    BTW. Saw that even Judge Napolitano is outing Trump’s corruption. A Jerry McGuire crisis of conscience? LOL. He won’t be Fox News’ head legal analyst much longer. Best, Mike

    • I am reminded of a certain sickness in reading your posts; one is dementia, since you are on repeat, repeat, repeat, and 2 is another kind of mental illness that has no understanding of respect. The fact that you come on here and continue your disrespectful mental bombardment routine and target George demonstrates your illness. You are like a sick person standing on a corner barking like a dog. Seek help ASAP.

  5. “Although we were kind of hoping Al Gore might visit Detroit this weekend – where unseasonable snow is expected. ”

    NOT unseasonable…

    35 years ago today, I made a sojourn to the Western Lower Peninsula — spent the night in a little cabin on a hill. My traveling attire was T-shirt and shorts. I called my Mom from Grand Rapids at about 2000hrs to let her know I was okay, and mentioned the temperature, which was 78°F. I was due the next night in Akron, Ohio, so this was a significant trip. I almost didn’t make it, because during the night, while I slept all comfy-cozy in that little cabin, the temperature dropped to 23° and it snowed 4″. I was not pleased, since I had no coat, and the only long pants I had with me were thin sweats. This was NOT proper attire for shoveling 60 feet of hillside, because my car wouldn’t track up the hill through the snow.

    This trip was noteworthy for another reason as well. OMW to Ohio I picked up I-94 in KZoo (I-96 was under construction at that time) and took it clear through Detroit. Coming into Motown, foot on the floor, my little 6-banger was flat-out at 84 (speed limit was 55.) ‘Had a Michigan State Trooper ride my tail for several miles. I was genuinely afraid he was going to pull me over and write me tickets for both speeding and obstructing traffic, since I was the slowest car on the road…

    • I’ve had similar experiences of speeding and obstructing traffic in both NY and Maryland. In both cases I got pulled over but no ticket. In NY, the cop asked me why I was going so slow!

      • NM Mike… I get that a lot… Its a family joke. For some reason people don’t fathom velocity and speed..just like the power company can’t seem to grant the solar tower or tree idea . I haven’t even bought up that I think an inverted trapazoid that would just send them into a coma or something.. Anyway one day I got pulled over for going five miles an hour over the speed limit in a school zone.. the officer was getting ready to write the ticket when I asked him.. do you have a camera.. he had this puzzled look.. I said I need a picture no one on god’s green earth will believe me when I tell them I got a speeding ticket. So I need photo he started laughing and gave me a warning for seat belts instead.
        Many are in a hurry and want to get nowhere fast.. most drive an average of thirty miles or less and fail to realize that the motors have an optimal speed going over or under will just burn gas. Not to mention the increase in damages in an accident or the fine if pulled over.
        For what.. a few seconds in time. So sit back enjoy the ride those few seconds just isn’t worth the drama and stress.

  6. Okay, I’ll try it again, since the first iteration of this post didn’t make it past George’s spam/inflam filter…

    Note to M.D.S.:

    When is a system of government based on a huge central authority ever NOT-socialist?

    (Hint: NEVER.)

    Many public and U.S. Government buildings in the 1930s featured a photo of Benito Mussolini next to the obligatory photo of FDR — Mussolini was THAT loved and admired by the Democrat faithful.

    In simple terms, Fascism is corporatist socialism, and is the most-attractive system of governance for the people of a nation whose population is vastly peasant. The Italians loved ol’ Benny, until their bellies got filled and they realized they’d traded their freedom for a loaf of bread.

    Fascism requires a State Enemy, to focus the peasants’ attention away from the government.

    The principal difference between Mussolini’s “pure” Fascism and Hitler’s application of Mussolini’s writings was: Nazism is fascism where the necessary State Enemy is a disbursed ethnicity, rather than a local or regional population.

    The reason Hitler killed off the communists right after offing his rivals is not because they were opposing ideologies, but because they were similar, competing ideologies.

    ANTIFA was the post-war re-formation of the hard-core German communists who escaped the Reich’s commie-purge. Again, not opposites, but competitors, whose disagreement wasn’t with the game plan, but merely with the personnel on the coaching staff…

    I have no doubt you did well in school. Please understand though, if you didn’t “self-learn” social studies disciplines once you were outside an academic environment, you only learned your teachers’ and textbook authors’ biases. IOW the better you were as a student, the more likely you’ve innocently become a parrot of stuff which ain’t necessarily so…

    • Sometimes the scripts which convey posts to G____ bomb out. I find it helps to compose the post offline on a word processor, then paste it in. I initially started doing this post on the smartphone and lost it due to finger fumbling issues, so I have transitioned to the computer.
      Nice post by the way.

      American primary education has become so dominated by psychopathic leftists with education degrees that the history of the left being taught no longer resembles the real murderous track-record of the real left. The leftist educators blame all geopolitical conflict on extremists of the left, right, and religious orders, and fail to mention that the most evil of these “extremists” looked and sounded a lot like themselves.

      Locally, the primary schools are hotbeds for leftist recruiting (social activism they call it), and the kids are being transformed into social media smartphone carrying child soldiers. Anyone who doesn’t roll over for the bullying is in danger of being social media gang stalked by an army of junior leftist revolutionaries who have no idea that they are leftist soldiers. The local brown shirt police, prosecutors and judges milk the situation and leave the victims in the dark, or so they think, while shaking down the parents and grandparents. The local authorities have no mandate to contact victims of social media gang stalking. If the offense doubles as a confession on social media, the police (revenuers) have all they need to extract what they want.

      The local left also uses undocumented aliens as soldiers as well. The undocumented workers here are tuned into the social media political scene continuously. The justice departments ignores minor perps who can’t pay. It’s always about the money with the revenuers.

      Most of the lawyers handling cases from individuals are leftists, so they aren’t going to help the real victims.

      I continue to go about my business even when it is not safe, because if no one stands publicly against the leftists and their dupes, the leftists win. Note that the local made men sometimes use the leftists as both paid and unpaid proxies, so that OC, leftists and government are all hopelessly intertwined here.

      • Yeah, I learned years ago to compose offline in a program with autosave…

        You’re very astute. BTW, I passed a roadside Obamaphone giveaway stand last week. ‘Assumed they’d gone away with the Election. Apparently Soros is still getting a ROI on that push-propaganda plan. One of these days, I’m going to be not-busy when I see one, and I’ll stop and pick up a phone, just to see what the propaganda-texts look like…

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