I was pleased to read the note from reader Andy in the comment section about how the planet has been granted another year before things really begin to fall apart.
While democrats are spreading the word of imminent decline, no doubt to set up a ghost’s chance in hell of winning the WH in 2020 (since in the latest, Bumbling Joe now was a bleeding eye problem), there were some hints that may explain what Andy’s turn to optimism may be based on.
For example, earlier this week a little-noticed report came out from the Labor Department that forecast more than 8-million jobs would be created in the next 10-years. Here’s how it went:
“Employment is projected to grow by 8.4 million jobs to 169.4 million jobs over the 2018–28 decade, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported. This expansion reflects an annual growth rate of 0.5 percent,
which is slower than the 2008–18 annual growth rate of 0.8 percent. An aging population and labor force will
contribute to changes expected over the coming decade including a continued decline in the labor force
participation rate and continued growth in employment in healthcare and related industries and occupations.
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to grow at much the same rate from 2018 to 2028 as it did in the previous decade; labor productivity is projected to accelerate slightly from the previous decade to an annual rate of 1.6 percent, higher than the previous decade’s annual rate of 1.3 percent. “
Such forecasts don’t usually “stick” in people’s heads, because of the odd way we think (or don’t…). But, could it be that Andy senses such things and they are somehow “translated” into an interaction with an ethereal ‘third-party’? Who’s to say.
GCCD – The Mechanics of a Blow-Off
GCCD is short around our house for “Global Competitive Currency Devaluation.” It’s only just-now in the opening phases. You can see the “evidence” of it trickling in if you know where to look.
Take the recent move of precious metals, for example. Until this morning, the price of silver was quickly closing-in on $20 and while gold is down a bit today, the “experts” appearing on the gold-selling sites (like Kitco) who’ve been forecasting a “strong move, well over $2,000” may turn out to be right. Depending on how much of a Bubble, perhaps even $5,000 or $8,000 – who knows?
Main thing to wrap your head-around is the notion of values of competing money. Elucidate? Sure…
Let’s say I owe you $100-bucks. Suddenly, some shirt tail relative leaves me $10-million. See how paying you back the hunsky becomes trivial? “Here’s you money plus $15 for a latte at Starbucks…”
Except, in international finance, especially with Made Up Economics (pioneered by Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe and blessed by valueless/clueless academics as Modern Monetary Theory) governments simply print on demand. It’s a delightful scam that accomplishes all kinds of “economic miracles.” Examples?
- Anything of “real value” goes up in price. (Remember, price is just a measure of “how many pieces of paper” – value is the utility, keeps-the-rain-off, or food value of a physical “thing.”
- Anything of notional value will go up as well. Driven by the increase in the number of hundred-dollar bills being printed. Bitcoin is back to $10,570 today. See?
- Some of the biggest “structural concerns” – like America’s National Debt – will become less important, too, under GCCD since once we start making up money faster than the prevailing interest rates (driven by lower for longer (L4L) protocol prescribed by former Fed boss, and more importantly superb Depression scholar, Ben Bernanke and colleagues over at Brookings), well, if you “make up dead relatives leaving you money” every month, you can owe everyone in town $100-bucks and still have enough left-over for a Gulfstream and a small island like Epstein’s…
A key part of GCCD is keeping the illusion out of the public eye. Sure, you may notice prices are going up.
In fact, reader Mike, up in New Mexico, noticed that many “deals” at Harbor Freight have gone up 10% in the past year, or less.
The illusory part of a GCCD is we can look at the hardware, tool, and equipment prices all day long, but it’s like looking at a mirage. Why did prices go up?
Were the prices up because of Trump’s Tariffs? Were they up because of strong consumer demand? Low stock on hand? Or, were they up because the suppliers (many of whom are in China) are having to pass on higher-costs as China’s labor prices are going up. Or, is some of it due to depletion of resources, and the fact that oil has stabilized giving the prospect of higher global petrochemical prices from which all those delightful environment-wrecking plastics are made?
There’s one more possibility: Sampling error. You see, like Mike, there are many items in the new Harbor Freight catalog I would love to own. BUT I have documented a statistical fact I call “The Parking Lot Effect.” I live in an aberrant world.
Know how when you go to the store, you want a spot to open up right by the front door? The more you want it, the further from the door you will end up. How many times, right?
Applied to Harbor Freight, if I WANT one of those 60″ long hardwood work benches (with four drawers, since the one I have now has zero drawers) it will NEVER go on sale. Until, that is, I make-up the desired drawers, install them and then? Magic! There will be $99-dollar deals (marked-down from $229) all over the place on the unit I wanted!
(In my original formulation of The Parking Lot Effect, this was proven by field research: Virtually all the parking by the front door of the supermarket OPENED between when I went through the checkout line and drove out… It’s an astounding fact.
All of which circles back to employment, but before we get into the two reports just released this morning (ADP and Challenger) one more word about employment: You will notice the Labor Department doesn’t talk much about Population.
Since they don’t, we have no idea whether anyone is projecting the eventual closing of the US-Mexico border
Our latest crack-head theory is that the US is really in the process of becoming a State of Mexico’s.
The more I listen to the Four Witches of Appocalyse (AoC et al) the more convinced I’ve become that as bad as Mexico’s government is, the American Left believes Mexican “best practices” (or those of Somalia) should be implemented here.
That’s what the Left is selling, and the American public, sucking down vapes and looking for legalizing anything that clouds thinking, is buying. Which is why all the dems in the 2020 run want to give free healthcare to Mexican, but not Americans.
Whew… long discussion, but very much foreplay ahead of the two numbers that matter most: (Insert drum roll and, uh, flugelhorn, please…we get to the point at last!)
Challenger Job Cuts
Hot off the press release:
“The August total is 39% higher than the 38,472 cuts announced in August 2018. So far this year, employers have announced plans to cut 423,312 jobs from their payrolls, up 36.2% from the 310,773 cuts in the first eight months of 2018. It is the highest eight-month total since 2015, when 434,554 cuts were announced.
“Employers are beginning to feel the effects of the trade war and imposed tariffs by the U.S. and China. In fact, trade difficulties were cited as the reason for over 10,000 job cuts in August,” said Andrew Challenger, Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
“We are continuing to see investor concerns shaking confidence in the market, and employers appear to be cutting workers in response to a slowdown in demand for their products and services,” he added.
The ADP Numbers
Here’s how the drill-down looked:
And yes, the Dow looks to open up 250’ish – which ought to put us on the “blow-off side” of the 50-day moving average.
If that sticks, and we close the week higher, then could we have a 90-day wonder to the upside?
Maybe, just maybe, the “weather in the markets” is like how the weather outside (commonly confused with climate) works.
This year, we’ve had an extremely late summer arriving in Texas. Now, with temps hitting nearly 100 every day this week (and with low humidity around 35% making the shop swamp cooler a great decision) we might make it to November with daily high temps in the 80’s. Just no telling when “summer is late.”
Our Blow-Off Top in our 1929 Replay Work is late, too.
Using Ure’s Extensible Templatizing, (UET) we can see the annual fall collapse may be late this year – and maybe not even show up until 2020. We did have a time-slip last week, remember?
It’s all going to come down to how many “long-lost relatives” the Fed is willing to kill, to fund things.
In the Bored Room
Ok, take two groups of idiots (Idiots 1 and Idiots 2) and put them on an island. Make kneel and talk funny. What happens? Johnson’s Brexit drama grips European press. Ding! Next.
Didn’t make sense? Ok, try this: India Looks Toward Russian Arctic for Energy Development. (I’m gulping down WTF pills fast furious now…)
Bernie Sanders, prince of giving away your money, can’t find enough ways to spend in America, so he’s come up with what now? Bernie Sanders says he’d back US funding for Third World abortions, birth control as part of climate plan. Instead of the White House, can we vote him into rehab?
CBS reports on “Bashing”! Hurricane Dorian bashes the South Carolina coast. Oh…that kind of bashing…
Next little wtf – The NY Times sounds sounds to us like they are championing “social justice in shipping” as a new “cause” for the left. Read: The Human Cost of Amazon’s Fast, Free Shipping. Hey, Jeff! Let’s bump up Prime for NY’ers up to $500 a year!
Speaking of people who “don’t get it” try this one on: Activists demand facial recognition ban for law enforcement in major new push. So, let’s see: A cop can “see” a crime, but a “camera” can’t? WhoTF are these people and why didn’t they fight traffic red-light cameras when we warned of RoboCopping years back? Fashionably late or stupid is the question.
Small business? Tyson Foods invests in plant-based shrimp company… Oh…decapod not market cap…I get it!
On that note, I’m going to go wet my pants now…
Write when you get rich…no more coffee today.
george@ure.net
Thanks for the year extension before TEOTWAWKI, everyone!!! I’ll have my house ready to sell next spring so I can snap-up the deals after the collapse….. if my cash is still good.
Prepare to be disappointed. Prices are only going higher since we are entering an economic upturn of biblical proportions. On the sell side you will do well. But no deals on the buy side.
Not always a deal on the sell side either. Sadly, prices for scrap metal are in the pits. 4.5 cents/lb for steel and 20 cents/lb for aluminum. In 2011 it was 11.5 and 60 respectively. I’ve got lots of leftovers here and want to clear up, but at a profit, not a loss after hauling all this stuff 100 miles.
Price increases also come in subtle forms to fool you. I purchase AA & AAA Sunbeam alkaline batteries at the Dollar Tree to fuel the grandkids toys & power my flashlight obsession. For year, a 4 pack was $1 (it’s the Dollar Tree & everything is a $1). Today the 4 pack is now a 3 pack, a 32% increase. If I had known, I could have stocked up.
Hurricane is on the way to Raleigh, NC. I have had 2 roof & 1 siding replacement in the last 2 years due to a Hurricane & a giant Hailstorm. Trees fell but missed the house.
The Parking Lot Effect is an interesting concept. Is there also a Traffic Light Effect? I’ve noticed when I leave early and I’m not in a rush, traffic lights tend to be green in my favor.
When I’m late and in a rush, they almost always turn red as I’m approaching. And if not in a traffic light area, I get stuck behind a slow moving vehicle or truck.
Yup, same laws!
Murphy’s three laws:
1. Nothing is as easy as it looks.
2. Everything takes longer than you thought.
3. If anything can go wrong, it WILL!
And there are some who say that Murphy was an optimist.
If and when you decide to build a workbench that matches your needs, you might want to view this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5u9buZRy3Y . Lots of useful ideas from a true master worker with lots of years experiences.
I am always one to hear both sides of an argument and watched the Climate debate last night. Bernie, Warren and gang don’t get it. But, Mayor Pete…he took a tactic I have been touting for years. It’s not about the climate as much as it is about JOBS!!!
He talked about balance. Balance of resources, balance of energy, balance of all industries to open up new sectors for job creation. For instance…He stated that no, we don’t want to get rid of cows like Trump says in his tweets, but we can create new industries to give people choices. (BTW, that Impossible Burger is really good). But , I also like a good sirloin too and tri-tip bbq…But I appreciate the choices.
He talked and stressed choices. He is not looking for unnecessary mandates. He is stressing innovation. Moving forward. Trump rolled back the light bulb standards for instance. But did you know that an incandescent bulb uses 10X the energy and lasts a fraction as long as an LED? Why would we want to go backwards? Many LEDS come with Bluetooth for ALEXA and other smart home assistants to control on your phone or your digital assistant. I like that and that creates new jobs. And…if the Democrats and Republicans for that matter would just tout that innovation in alt energy will keep America employed for generations to come then we wouldn’t even need debates like last night.
Mayor Pete is really a brilliant guy. I was enthralled by his knowledge and his mannerisms. He is the only candidate that actually answers questions given to him. He doesn’t deflect. He doesn’t answer a questions with a prepared statement that never answers the question asked like most candidates. I wanted to rip my hair out when every time Bernie Sanders was asked a question, he would reply, “But first Let me say”….and then go on and talk about something totally unrelated to the question. I wanted to do a Homer Simpson to Bart Simpson Choke on Bernie. Answer the damn question.
If any of you have a chance…go to On Demand or YouTube and watch Pete Buttigieg’s Climate town hall segment. I think even you most conservative folk will find him engaging. You especially George…As a user of alt energy yourself, you get it…and you know that about me from past posts…it’s innovation change. Mayor Pete gets it.
Excellent remarks – thanks for sharing – very much along the lines of where 100 year toaster goes
He makes a lot of sense. Means he hasn’t got a prayer.
He would be good for gun sales, like Obama was. Obama packed the gun shows & created an ammo shortage. To base your opinion of this crazy, you judge him based on a staged event. Obama was an excellent speaker, but a poor leader. Just another conable liberal is this poster.
I replaced 11 incandescent 60W overhead BR30 recessed light bulbs in my living room with 10W (65W equiv) LEDs earlier this year. Three of them now flicker, after about 6 months installed (over summer – so minimal use). So almost 30% of them will be going into the garbage the next time I get around to grabbing the suction-cup-on-a-stick light bulb puller. That already wiped out any “extra long lifetime” benefits the rest of them may have had.
And NO thank you to bluetooth/alexa/sensors on any light bulbs.
That has been my experience also. I don’t think “long life” means what they think it means.
And ditto on the alexa.
The new lighting makes financial sense. Why do we need a regulation to force it?
Hi Mark. To answer your question as to why Trump would roll back bulb standards, I would argue it’s to protect jobs. A quick search of the web and I found an LED bulb last 25 time longer and uses about a quarter the energy of an incandescent bulb. So, yes, lifecycle costs go down for the consumer. However, in changing over to all LEDs, demand would also drop to 1/25 th what it was for light bulbs. There would now be 25 times the manufacturing capacity and work force then market demand. By relaxing bulb standards, Trump is allowing changes in consumer taste to gradually reshape the market versus a government mandate that would quickly displace 24 out of 25 lightbulb manufacturers.
Btw, how are you doing since the car accident? Sounded like you were in some discomfort in the aftermath. Were the police able to nab the guys?
CJ, I am fine…Little soreness in the neck, buy my wife thinks I am a pain in the neck anyway, so I have the physical twinge to prove it now. No, they never caught them, but have a lead now. The car was stolen, or at least matches the description of one that stolen. We will see.
Also, I get the choices of lightbulbs, but how many jobs can they create if a better product available? It’s like a non-smart flip phone…Yes they still create them, but what is the demand and how many people are actually employed to make them…My guess is nobody…They are all probably made in China. It will be the same for incandescent bulbs. What’s the point? Low demand will mean they will be resourced elsewhere.
Mark, we are actually pretty close on this topic, I just think we may be talking past each other a bit. All I am saying is forcing an industry to change their product through government mandate will just put a bunch of people out of work. That’s pretty much what you echoed from Mayor Pete’s comments about innovation versus unnecessary mandates. The superior product will displace the inferior one over time through market forces. The work force will restructure itself, shrinking through retirement and attrition with no back fill and workers migrating to other industries. Government mandate would just shut down an industry and suddenly put a bunch of people out of work. Your question was why would Trump roll back light bulb mandates. My answer is to avoid an abrupt discontinuity in the industry and let market forces more gradually restructure itself.
Incidentally, thanks for bringing up this topic, I had to stop by the store on the way home from work and I keep forgetting to get light bulbs to replace two that are burned out in the front bedroom. I got a four pack of LEDs.
The fluorescent screw-in light bulbs take some getting used to, but I have gotten good service from them. The fluorescent bulbs are much more efficient than incandescent, and I like the color rendition of the cool-white versions. LED’s are OK, but the service lives tend to be overstated, I suspect, which exaggerates the payout over fluorescent. And no, I don’t sell, manufacture or hold stock in light bulbs.
Most politics at state or national levels tends to be about money or water, and everything else is just window dressing.
Although LEDs have generally, something like a 100,000 hour claimed life, they are also a declikning output device. So, once you get to 60,000 hours, or so, the light output may be half of the new unit output measured in lumens.
DiogiKey has a great article on the effect here:
https://www.digikey.com/en/articles/techzone/2012/feb/understanding-the-cause-of-fading-in-high-brightness-leds
Two additional points: 1) the rapid adoption of led’s is why the us had an 0.5% decline in CO2 output in 2017 – which no one else matched in the first world.
Second point is (referencing the dk curves) is that the maximal impact on energy savings (per lumen) is when an LED light is first put into service. After that, you’re on a bunny slope…
Based on anecdotal evidence, I am suspecting that the life of the LED devices is limited by the thermal management challenged electronics, not the emitters. Again, I suspect that the real service life of the devices is probably not much better than that of the fluorescents, despite the long life of the emitters. If you have a specific application where the incremental energy efficiency justifies the initial investment (such as off-grid living), then the LED’s are the way to go. The justification by economics alone is still questionable in my book.
Interesting. Probably worth a watch. There are so many ways that we could improve product utility over time and they never get any promotion. For instance: Many of us have 30 year old electronic stuff with LED indicators on it. Those lights almost never burn out due to clean regulated power supplies. LED “bulbs” last one year. Yes, I use the ones from the dollar store and I’ve timed them. They run a dirty driver and are not clamped to prevent spikes, as far as I can tell. They use the cheapest circuitry and pot it in some kind of plastic to prevent repair and arguably prevent fire. I’d not be surprised if they have a countdown timer that kills them. If Mayor Pete wants to have a chance, he’s going to have to endorse the second amendment(among others) and make his name both pronounceable and readable. He might also endorse “sustainability” in the form of having every product be sold with a schematic diagram and source code for any embedded software. Having a working link to a website with that info would suffice.
I really get what you are saying Mark with one exception. I switch out my LED lights, which I really like, with incandescent bulbs in the winter in some fixtures in my home. Yes they cost a full nickel a day to use but they actually heat the small rooms in my old house enough that I only need to actually heat (very expensive) those rooms minimally. One bulb will keep close by items in my shed from freezing. I like choices. note: It may cost more than a nickel now, its been 10 years since I calculated it….
Mayor Pete is a very good public speaker, and has reasonably accurate enunciation and diction, which is unusual in today’s “semi-literate and proud of it” society. He is not brilliant, but he’s not a slouch either, and he sounds intelligent when surrounded by the company he’s currently keeping. {After all, perception IS reality, right?}
He is a great fount for idea and opinion which sound good to book-educated folks who’ve letters after their names, but no practical experience in the real world, and for a sector of the ignorant masses. That said, theory don’t cut it in real life. His ideas are predominately destructive, unworkable, wasteful, and ineffectual, and he is a terrible manager and administrator.
Buttigieg has had a billion dollars a year more to work with than the mayors of comparable cities (thanks to Notre Dame) and south South Bend is the worst, and possibly most-dangerous sh!thole area I’ve ever been in. Driving through it scares me more than south Chicago, west Baltimore, South Bronx & Harlem, East St. Louis, and the Detroit slums… possibly combined. Mayor Pete didn’t cause it, but he’s done nothing to fix it, and the problems have gotten noticeably worse during his tenure. If anyone happens to drive to SB (say, for a set of custom-fitted tires at Tire Rack, like I’ve done since the 1970s), spend a couple hours south of Lincolnway just driving around (don’t do it after dark!) and judge for yourself. BTW, does God really consider pollution a sin? I musta missed that verse…
CLIMATE CHANGE HOAX…..proof
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-09-07/martin-armstrong-warns-new-discoveries-undermine-global-warming-narrative
the title..Climate Forum….should be enough to an ‘educated’ person to change channels….unless of coarse…..you believe the earth is going to end in 12 years…..and Al Gore is right ….and fossil fuels are the cause of all our problems…..Then one could watch and agree with the ‘Climate Change Hoax’…as presented by …Fake News….I believe that ‘man’ can not change the ‘weather/climate’….until he is ‘6 feet’ under the soil…then ‘he’ will be able to fertilize the ground for the seedlings to sprout into a tree to ‘clean the air’ as has been done for millennium
Hi George, I’m sure there’s some sampling error in my estimates on HF prices, but I do note particular items that I buy on a regular basis, along with those I might want but have no real intention of buying. I remember those prices easily. It’s generally not about personal desire – more about using HF as a retail proxy for inflation(relative to the China market). I use Home Depot prices on 7/16 OSB, 2×4 studs, and 1/2″ sheetrock as a mental proxy for domestic materials and building activity. Regarding parking, I usually park in the place quickest to get into or out of(or in the shade) rather than walking distance. I’m trying to get in shape and with everyone looking for the close in spots, it will take longer and more effort to actually get parked and into the store. Sometimes you win by not playing:-).
Taste testing fast food beefburgers to find the fake meat. Jump to 8:00 for results.
Guess Which Burger Is The Impossible Burger Challenge | People Vs. Food
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrW7cTZyfuo&list=PL73YndQawY3MC79qrr7Oj7Cq_I2iQvJao&index=9&t=0s
I don’t need the results. I did the Morningstar thing (and every other manufacturer which makes fake beef, pork, poultry, or fish out of TVP.) The problem isn’t the taste (although I did sample a couple which smelled like burning toast) and by now, they’ve probably fixed the texture. The problems with texturized vegetable protein are two:
1. As with turkey bacon or turkey sausage, in order to make TVP taste like something it isn’t, the manufacturer adds a bunch of stuff to it, making it less healthy than the food it is designed to replace.
2. Vegetable protein is not, and can’t be concentrated enough, to replace the high quality protein for which meat in-general, and “red meat” in particular, is the best source.
Quality of protein isn’t a big deal in a low-stress environment. If you’re very “Fred Rogers” in both temperament and surroundings, you’ll never have a problem with bean and nut protein. However, if someone shoves an M-16 in your fist and air-drops you into the middle of Kabul, you won’t make it to the ‘burbs before becoming fetal target practice for the Talibani minions…
Crazy Bernie’s third world abortion scheme sounds racist to me.
“But did you know that an incandescent bulb uses 10X the energy and lasts a fraction as long as an LED?”
Whodathunk Mark’s naive comment would translate into an essay:
Not true…
The 100w incandescent I had in a track-fixture over my washer lasted 12 years of 24/7/365 (except for the occasional power failure.) The 100w incandescent I replaced it with lasted nearly 11. Neither CFLs nor LEDs have lasted for more than four months in that fixture, until this last LED, a “no-name” bulb which was supplied by the ElectricCo. It has actually been doin’ its thing for 14mos, so we’ll see… (It’s also incredibly heavy!)
Aside from the one above, I have yet to have an LED last as long as one year, whether on a constant or a limited use circuit, or an enclosed or open lamp. $8 LED or $48 LED hasn’t made a difference either. At least most CFLs lasted nearly as long as incandescents — typically for 16-18mos in an open fixture.
100w incandescent – 100w, 1710 lumens, 5khrs observed MTBF
100w (eq) CFL – 23w, 1360-1650 lumens, 3.7khrs observed MTBF
100w (eq) LED – 13-17w, 1060-1530 (stated) lumens, 2khrs observed MTBF
Does anybody really believe a light bulb manufacturer screwed a batch of LED light bulbs into a rack full of sockets and ran them for 8 years and 4 months (25000hrs), to observe their decay and failure curves? Yeah, nope! All that stuff is done with computer modeling, in a matter of seconds, and has ABSOLUTELY NO BASIS IN FACT, or in real-world conditions.
Lighting engineers and EE geeks accept as a general rule that an LED operating at 100% efficiency can produce 90 lumens of illumination per watt. It would take a 19w LED to produce the same amount of light as a 100w incandescent light bulb. Claims to the contrary are lies — The same MadAve “creative exaggeration” used for those “1000w” audio amplifiers which actually output 3.2w of clean power into the typical end-user’s audio circuit… Well, except that the light output of incandescents has been cut back significantly since they “re-emerged” onto the market (If’fn ya can’t hit the mark, then lower the standards…) Unfortunately for this marketing crap, I READ LABELS and REMEMBER STUFF. I also have some 30yo light bulbs in storage…
Now if one were to figure the cost of a light bulb as C+(PxH)
where
C=Cost (shelf price of the bulb)
P=Power (cost per kilowatt-hour)
H=Hours (average lifespan as MTBF)
at 10¢/KwH:
A 100w incandescent would eat $50.25
a CFL (@$3), $16.03 ($3×1½ bulbs, to compensate for the lower MTBF)
and an LED (@$7), $27.00 (‘cuz you’d have to buy 2½ of THESE!)
At 0¢/KwH (if yer producing your own electricity) the costs are 49¢, $5.50, and $17.50, respectively, but you are going to have to crank out 5x the power of the others for that incandescent.
Obviously, if your electric cost per KwH is higher, LED/CFL savings would be greater, but if you are buying those $20.75ea “smart bulbs,” you’re not saving a damn’ dime.
The modern bulbs are an improvement in efficiency, but they’re not anywhere close to the totally spurious claims of the bulb manufacturers. CFLs were a “bridge technology” so even though they are obviously the cheapest, they shan’t be with us much longer. There’s also an entire segment of society which reacts adversely to fluorescent lighting, and too, every fluorescent light contains mercury vapor, and thus is an environmental hazard if broken.
Household LEDs are rated in “lumens,” which is a misnomer (LEDs are properly rated in “candela.”) The lumen (or candlepower) is a measurement of a light emitter which radiates light omnidirectionally, that is, in all directions. LEDs are very unidirectional — nearly “software laser” emitters. Their light output is spread and shaped via a semireflective lens. An LED “light bulb” uses a lens on its emitter, plus either a phosphor coating on the inside of the bulb, or a hyperbolic reflector at the focus of the LED, or both, to create omnidirectional light.
If one were to add a rectifier to an incandescent, it would suddenly draw half the power and last 10x longer (It will lose 40% of its light output, but it will run much cooler and become immune to “burn out.”) The filaments of incandescent light bulbs burn slightly at start-up on AC current, which is the primary cause of a bulb “burning out.” A rectifier eliminates this filament burn by pushing DC current into the filament, instead of “slamming” AC current into it.
All three types of lighting “run hot.” Yet only an incandescent generates enough useful heat to be used as a brooder lamp. The CFL and LED heat gets concentrated in their electronics (IMO a principal reason for LED failure) and flashed off as wasted energy.
BTW, when they were in common use, 89% of incandescent bulbs sold in North America were made in USA. 99.99999% of the remainder were made in the UK, Holland, Germany, France, Sweden, and Poland (now they’re all made in China…) The only new “American made” incandescents sold in the U.S. today are industrial or “rough service,” 130v halogens, and NOS.
100% of all “medium base” CFLs are licensed by General Electric, and made in China.
97%+ of all “medium base” 110VAC LED bulbs sold in the U.S. and Canada are made in China.
For much more ACCURATE and truthful information than the average person will ever need to know, I recommend reading the Candlepower Forums, and the website of Daniel Stern Lighting. Stern is an actual lighting engineer, a frequent consultant to NHTSA and the military, and his website is devoted to automobile lighting, but the formulae and general information translate fairly seamlessly into explanations regarding household incandescent, halogen, and LED lighting.
I’m getting longer service life out of the CFL’s than you are. If you aren’t eating the CFL bulbs, the mercury shouldn’t be an issue. Maybe you should look at some surge protection upgrades. With a one (1) nanosecond SPD available for the main panel for $140.00, the devices have become too cheap to ignore.
The ruggedized incandescents are still best for ambient thermal cycling.
Linky?
I’m the last house on a rural power line. When anybody else hiccups, I’m in the dark. Back when I ran computers to put food on the table, I used these nifty little $30 Tripp-Lite conditioners ahead of my UPS… I averaged replacing one per month.