Super-Bubble Road Map

These are times that our grandchildren will hear-tell about.  Because we are now in process of working through the biggest financial bubble since at least the South Seas Bubble and, arguably, Tulip Mania (1632-1637).

Is this an Economic Bubble?

The answer, at least to us, is hell yes!  Let’s look at one asset class – stocks – and see how this bubble matches up with the 1929 blow-off and collapse:

We need to consider why the market is going up.  New tech?  Nope.  Higher job growth?  YGTBFKM, right?  On the ass-end of a pandemic-driven economic train wreck?  Not hardly…

The main driver the apparent stock price rise is the federal reserve simply making up humongous amounts of paper money.  They are able to pull this off because all global economies are in the same pickle:  More debt – and they keep piling on more anyway.

The Bubbleverse

While I was dozing off – babysitting Elaine in a hospital room – this amazing insight came to me:  We know that large singular bubbles collapse with predictability.  But, what would happen if you could collapse serial bubbles.

In other words, rather than stoking a bubble in one asset class, you had…oh, say a dozen, or more.  Could that develop as a semi-stable economic modality?

I started to tick through what’s in a bubble right now:

  • Stocks (oh, duh)
  • Cryptos (NSS)
  • Big City real estate
  • Government size and tax burdening
  • News-driven  hysterias (Trump, climate, woke idiocy, yada, yada)
  • Social media…

In short, how many concurrent “bubbles” would it take to create artificial stability based on synthetic growth?

If real estate got into trouble, could the stock bubble “save the economy?”  Or the combo of stocks and government, and Cryptos….the mind reels.

Apparently over at ZeroHedge, too.  The Dystopian Bubble: George Orwell Meets Charles Mackay.

Reality’s a Hard Master

There are many ways to look at a market, but here’s a wild-guess as to where we may be right now:

As you can see, in the wave count (upper right) we still have some “room to move” to the upside.

And no one wants to be the first to yell “Fire!” in this crowded theater.

In fact, did you see where Fed Boss J. Powell made a splash by saying ix-nay to rate increases unless there’s a “real” spike in inflation?

If you search what Mr. Fed is saying, though, it seems very similar to the problem we have been yelling about for months:  You can’t have “real” economic growth without a lot more people working.

Power goes so far as to call for a “war-time-like” efforts to create jobs.

Remember, if you look at the jobs data from BLS (Here), you’ll see in January, America had just over 150-million employed.  Down about 8.65 million from year-ago levels.

Don’t want to sound jerkish about this, but feels like Powell is trying to get a head-start on the next economics mini-crash, to us.  Remember, the Bank of England voiced fears about the picture in late March to April of this year.

Still, that’s some ways off.  Got out the research and looked again.  Calendar days from bubble top to crash even is usually 55-57 days which means around 37- trading days.  47-trading days in the 1929 event, but they had some Saturday sessions back when.  On the calendar it was 56-days top to bottom.

Thursday April 8, 2021 is  – using this view of things – the earliest we could put in a collapse bottom.

We will do some “rate of declines” work for subscribers this weekend.

Today’s Jobs Data

Number of people filing new claims?

In the week ending February 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 793,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 33,000 from 779,000 to 812,000. The 4-week moving average was 823,000, a decrease of 33,500 from the previous week’s revised  average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 8,250 from 848,250 to 856,500.

Our usual complaint NSA is more honest that SA numbers.  And this doesn’t count real people who have run out benefits…

Key with all these job numbers if the 6.3% estimate of unemployment is likely way low because people have run out of benefits.  Congress doesn’t task Labor with reporting uncomfortable data like real unemployment.

Statistically, we run into paradoxes, too:  How would you categorize a “sex worker” for example?  Z’at really work?  (IRS would argue “taxable event” but “workers” could argue “gifts…”  (The mind reels, I’ve gotta catch up on my sleep.

Short Takes – the Hysteria Review

Republican’s Screw up – Again:  Talking about a third party?  Wait!  What about the Tea Party? Not to bitch-n-moan, but why not fix the broken?  They are acting too much like government:  Can’t solve the problem?  Make up more bureaucracy.  Or, in the GOP’s case:  Divide for easier conquering!  (SFB decoder:  FB is “for brains…”)

Janis Joplin-style medicine: “Shoot if it makes you feel good…”  Application note: The EU’s flawed vaccine rollout will stymie growth in 2021, new forecast reveals.

It’s doesn’t improve our view of the Schemer, but did you see where Senate Majority Leader Schumer’s marijuana reform push embraced, but stiff challenges await?  Dope on dope?  Does God hisself make errors with plants?  Government trying to “tariff the Garden of Eden” is – to us – highly offensive.

Oilman2 has been warning for years that “Depletion never sleeps.”  And now that Joe Biden is blowing-up American energy independence to keep his deals with Globalists and jerk America into another Obiden Iran nuke blackmail, Shell says its oil production has peaked.  Tisk, Tisk.  Another take on it in The era of peak oil has already arrived for this energy giant.

Commie uprising in Portland just won’t stop.  Like a bad case of crabs – trying to break down the doors of the Portland Police Association.  Of course the crooked mainstream buries shit like this.  Since this is obviously a “peaceful protest” to the “woke-joke.”

Then, speaking of commies – how about the crooked media trying to paper-over AOC in “Fact Check: Did Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Deny Claiming Ted Cruz Almost Had Her Murdered?”  (They get to mostly true but what contorted BS…seriously.

And we couldn’t help but notice ex Fed Chief Allan Greenspan’s wife apologizing to Ted Cruz.  Try NBC’s Mitchell apologizes after wrongly correcting Cruz Shakespeare reference.  I’m so old, I remember when “news” was not just a raggedy-ass collection of opinion splices dumbed in high def…

Around the Ranch:  Getting Hip

Good news – and bad – about Elaine’s hip surgery.

The good:  It was done Monday.  Though, apparently, since no one called us to give us the time (blame Super Bowl?) right after Monday’s column, we put on our Speed Racer / Thunder Road skills to run up to Tyler, TX early Monday.

Operation (scheduled for 8 AM) rolled at 9 AM, instead.  A couple of hours later, Elaine was back in a recovery room.  There was a hairline crack (top of femur), so she is on weight-bearing restrictions for several weeks.

The pain is gone, too.  Except, we discovered she had a very bad reaction to coming down from the meds.  There goes her chance to become a drug addict!  (Something about “conspiracies” which then morphed into thinking we were on a cruise ship, instead of in a hospital room. Getting aggressive with staff, etc…).  “Alexa, play some Miles Davis…”

With rest, food, and some walking exercises, the anesthesia effects wore off, so I got her home Wednesday (sorry about missing the PN column Wed.!).  I’ve been playing a hybrid role of man-servant, cook, physical therapist, chambermaid,  and so forth.  Clock’s ticking today, since we are expecting our second “blizzard” of the year here in East Texas this weekend.

On the docket?  Pharmacy run, top off food stocks, and iron out the home health agency which needs to confirm they are “in network” before I get them to come out.  Always the paperwork…sheesh. But, in healthcare, if you don’t nail down coverage up front…

Oh, and in addition to the walker and such, we’re now proud owners of a bedside commode.  Whee!  Are we having fun, yet?

LBNL (Last But Not Least)

Here’s additional evidence re-proving that there’s no intelligent life on Earth, after all:  Pigs can play video games with their snouts, scientists find.

Of all the issues in the world…this one?

Off to make breakfast for my impatient:  Bit of coffee, half a croissant ham and cheese, orange juice, banana, milk, multi-vitamin.

Moron the ‘morrow’ and:  Write when you get rich,

author avatar
George Ure
Amazon Author Page: UrbanSurvival Bio:

44 thoughts on “Super-Bubble Road Map”

  1. “Calendar days from bubble top to crash”

    ?????HMMM… What If… they had an issue to draw the attention away from what’s happening in the economic sector..
    Listen to MSM aliyu hear share Trump , 2nd impeachment, hate trump.. the economic stimulus coming.. great joe super joe..
    So.. What if… there was an event so spectacular that it takes everyone’s mind off of the true state of affairs..
    People in great pain or in severe distress we would turn on retro television.. those that require pain medicine are given a button..the mind is distracted by the button or the thirty minute sitcom..

    • “… What If… they had an issue to draw the attention away from what’s happening in the economic sector..”

      What If…there were no “THEY” just individuals — like you and I, except smarter — looking out for their own interests?

      This “conspiracy stuff” seems getting “too long in the tooth,” IMHO, If you know what I’m talking about?

      • Sure, there is no reason in the world to think that the people with the most; the most wealth, the most knowledge, the most power do not get together and discuss strategies or make plans. : – /

      • No conspiracy intended. historically there has always been an issue to gather support and distract from other issues at hand.. jmho..

      • “discussing strategies or make plans” is one minor issue — executing for results is much different, IMHO. See most recent history ;-(.

      • I have always been an opinionated person.. and my social position in life is at the bottom of the rung.. for myself since other smarter individuals always seem to be manipulating the environment around me that would adversely affect my life and of everyone I know.. I share my opinion on what I see to see if any others are speculating events that are happening the same way I do.
        I must be pretty close in my assumptions.
        Time will tell what future events are in front of us

      • If you think what my opinions are to negative on current topics.. then you have never been out having coffee with a bunch of farmers or plant workers. I am quite mild and more positive in my speculations of current events in comparison.

  2. Its Moonular Gdude, moonular.

    New moon – new hip , new insight into unfolding – financial dumpster fire – on runaway train “hundred and two is on the wrong track and headed for you”-GD

    Seems like the entire financial landscape is high on Cocaine, eventually they gotta come down, so down..

    Which leads to ? How to best navigate thru the coming/pending “great reset” successfully.
    Big problem is almost all depressions are Deflationary..9 out of 10 times – and that lil nugget suggests Long Term Tsy Bonds and Cash as the way forward.

    Persoanally I would suggest Bitcoin versus Cash, but that idea is for the new and shiny types, not the old and busted types..which is why they will be busted..again.
    In the race to the “flight deck floor” who wins – China/USA/EUR..?

    In meantime I like Ure April time frame – seems to resonate wit da coots data..
    Once again will start to nibble on hedges.. SPY Apr 300 Puts and QQQ Apr 265
    Puts. Utilizing Stop orders otherwise, and adjusting them upwards as market action dictates.

    Reminder/Remember – once a “correction” starts there is No stopping, No slowing down in Price Decline Action -until Auto Circuit Breakers start kicking in at 3% Down. Investing in toppy markets with leverage (margin) is riskier than believing we still have a Constitution – to/for this once great country..

  3. George,

    Glad to hear that Elaine’s surgery went well. I hope the hairline femur fracture mends quickly. I am sure it will. Extra calcium in diet (if she can tolerate it) and vitamin D3 might help the healing process. Seems hairline fractures heal quickly. Wife broke her hand back in the summer holding a cat for a vaccination. He struggled to get loose and broke the bone in her right hand between wrist and pinky finger. Cast for 4 weeks then therapy to regain strength. Back to almost normal for us now.

    Given yours and Elaine’s mindset, I would anticipate her doing well in recovery. Great that she has someone who cares about her so much. Take care of each other and cherish each and every day.

    So far we have dodged the “ice storm” for our area. I guess making sure that preparations to run generators at home and farm house, drove the evil ice demons away. For now. We get storm round two on Monday and Tuesday with temps in single digits. Been known to be below zero here every night for as much as two weeks. Haven’t seen that in 20 plus years. Things go in cycles, so I guess we are due.

    Take care and stay warm. Glad all is going well.

  4. I think, George, you’re going to have to change the name for your analysis from Elliott Wave to Fed Wave. It would explain things much more clearly right off the bat. The stock markets are as captured as the PM markets.

  5. Glad to hear Elaine came through and is home now. While taking the best care of your Bunny don’t forget to take care of yourself. You cant help if your down too. Good to see your getting help from outside on this.

    Here is where I share a related story about my Dad. In his later years he was unable to raise his arms above elbow level after years of hard work and his time in service. He was finally talked into having rotator cuff surgery. He came home the next day trussed up like a turkey on the right side. A home nurse was scheduled to come to the ranch and start his therapy the next day. She arrived on time as scheduled which in itself was a feat since the ranch s somewhat remote. Mom showed her in then left her and Dad in the living room while she took laundry out to the line. She had just set the basket down when the nurse’s car went flying down the drive and left never to return. She went back inside and my Dad was furious. I guess the nurse just grabbed his arm and started his therapy and the pain was pretty bad since I had seen some of his injuries that would have had life flight come to other places but dad woud just keep on. Mom said she learned new bad words that day in english, korean, vietnamese, german and a couple other languages she did not recognize. Never had the therapy and his shoulder went back to where it was.

    Mom tried to contact the nurse to appolgize but never reached her. She said it was even worse than the incident with the Jehova Witness ladies.

    Drive on, Elaine. You have a great support group.

  6. Now that I’ve read the whole edition it’s good to hear Elaine came out just fine and I have no doubts she’s in good hands!

    Another ZH article came out a day or two ago. I understand Ayn Rand has her detractors but this article about “Going Gault” is a keeper as we dive deeper into the Leftist takeover – “A Strange Game”, Part 2″ The first part isn’t bad either. I’d recommend printing it out and reading it at least once a week while posting a printed copy of it on your local P.O. bulletin board or similar public area. When it disappears put up another and another and so on. It’s the best resistance a large population can effect upon a rogue government … for now.

    Got to see if I can make it to the ranch to feed this morning. The highways around here sound like the tractor farm in the “Cars” movie after they went tractor tipping.

  7. George,
    Glad to hear that Lady E made it through the surgery ok, but sorry to hear about her post-op problems. Best wishes and prayers for a quick resolution.
    Consider whether, due to modern technology and pharmaceuticals, bubbles and other “corrections” burst and recover much faster than in times past. Hyper-speed? Example: last year’s COVID crash and recovery.
    Just wondering.

  8. Dang! when they did my hip they did a spinal to block right leg and put sleepy in iv, so I woke up not puking with a leg numb for 24 hours…never even needed tylenol.

  9. George. Thank you for the update on Elaine. You have both been in our thoughts and prayers.

    I lost a very close friend to COPD last week. I wanted badly to visit him in hospital in his final days. No visitation. No funeral, no burial. It was so hard not being able to hug his wife, kids and grandkids that I have known and loved for so long. I feel like there has been no closure.

    I read this article today and it helped me. I thought I would share it with this group as I am sure others have gone trough something similar this past year.

    Stay safe, stay warm and be kind.

    • I am sure this is to late to be read in the comments. But don’t let anyone in government control who you visit. It is none of their business. Yes it might be more trouble to do because you cannot get together at a public location. Now I would completely respect the families wishes to remain isolated and of course those wished should be honored. People can get together to protest and riot, certainly we the people can support our friends and families.

  10. Great news Elaine is out of the hospital and is now back home where she receives the BEST of your TLC! More prayer and positive thoughts continue her way.

  11. While you were out, J Powell noted yesterday that the actual unemployment rate was probably close to 10%. By the govt data release, that would mean about a third of unemployed are getting govt aid. The other 6.9% of the population must be looking at bankruptcy and life on the street.

    btw, the only safety from the self appointed “woke” mob is to be a victim. Hence AOC’s angry tearful episodes. That status will take a lot of work now that she has a plum job with good pay and bennies.

    Get well soon to E.

  12. George,

    Glad to see that things worked out.

    Patience and the patient are the order of the day.

    God bless you both.

    Ken Janssen

  13. When I went to this site, I immediately scrolled down to get an update on Elaine’s condition! I probably speak for most of us here that we care more about Elaine and her condition than we do about this day in the economy. I’m truly glad that this phase of her healing has begun.

    I’ve mentioned boron as an essential nutrient for strong bones. It’s not on the radar of a lot of physicians, so I’d definitely explore this in your “spare time”. It also helps in reducing the tendency toward osteoporosis, though of course it can be overdone. Other important elements include magnesium and iodine. I’m sure Ure able to figure out what’s necessary, though love and TLC trump everything.

    I wonder if the surgeon was able to do anything(band or pin) to help stabilize Elaine’s femur and limit any tendency to split. I have no doubt that he did the best he could under the circumstances. Best wishes and happy healing to both of you.

    • “When I went to this site, I immediately scrolled down to get an update on Elaine’s condition!”

      Ditto (and also to make sure George didn’t discover some o’ that Texas road-ice on the way home.)

      “I wonder if the surgeon was able to do anything to help stabilize Elaine’s femur”

      If it’s minor they’ll “irritate” the crack — it should fuse naturally. If it is not, they use surgical stainless zip-ties…

    • Thank you so much for the boron info! After doing a little research about it I thought it would be of use for my mom (about the same age as Elaine) who has arthritis and osteoporosis so I mixed up some for her. After taking it for several weeks now she says she hardly has any pain and no longer has to take daily ibuprofen.
      George – much love and prayers to Elaine. She sounds like a wonderful lady and I bet she has some great stories to tell about her very interesting life!

  14. George

    “I’ve been playing a hybrid role of man-servant, cook, physical therapist, chambermaid, and so forth.”

    I’ve been doing that and more for the last five years to keep my Lady alive. You might think ahead to what’s needed it your Lady ever needs full time care for the rest of her life. I hope it doesn’t go that way but stuff happens. In our case my Lady is fighting diabetes which slowly knocks you down to an invalid.

    Good health to you and yours forever!!

  15. Amusing that Mr P finally broke ranks from the unemployment narrative and admitted to 10% unemployment – now I haven’t seen a recent shadowstats for unemployment but I suspect higher- of course this justifies more printing – now had he also broke ranks and said that inflation is also head and shoulders about Fed stats he would have a problem – being the most conflicted Fed Head owning millions of dollars worth of stock etf’s – my guess is the time to sell is when he does.

  16. The whole situation of the economic struggles we all are facing and the FR printing more to keep the lead balloon afloat.. reminds me of a truck ..

    One of my hats was working as an auto body repair.. anyway a truck dealership brought in a semi tractor that they had bought on an auction. It needed a couple of body parts but rather than remove them straighten the frame etc. They just wanted the cheaper alternative . BONDO… we kept adding to it till it looked ok.. there must have been a few hundred pounds of BONDO on that thing.
    Several times the boss would say dam iam afraid to drive it.. one little bump and would it stay on or just fall off..

      • M..It looked real good when we were done.everyone argued that the job should be done right not what we called.. butchered out to make coin. I always wondered how long that lasted after they sold it before it fell off…lol lol lol ..frame out of alignment it had to be hell on tires.. lol..
        The funny one was for govt. To buy vehicles they put out for bids..well one of my hats was working as a truck of the board members had a dealership..we needed new semi tractor. He gave us the low bid.. but instead of a heavy haul the tractor he sold was a joke. It had a pickup motor in it .. no heater or air conditioning no radio.. no two way radio.. the window mechanism didnt work the windows were always closed.. no air brakes … the average load was 125 thousand pounds..
        The fastest you could get the truck up to was 4 miles an lol lol kids would pass you on their bicycles. You couldn’t drop the tags and a thirty mile trip took you all day to drive.. ( not joking here) one day a highway patrol got stuck behind me.. he couldn’t pass.. obviously overweight .. I could tell he was upset back there every time he tried to pass traffic would stop him eventually he did get around and as I went by he pulled over the very next semi he went by.. lol lol lol
        The longest trip of your life.. and miserable if it was hot or cold lol lol..luckily it was only used in emergencies..

  17. Happy to hear the surgery went well. As a retired post surgical RN I can tell you that more people than not have “interesting” anesthesia stories.
    If I can offer some advice; my favorite supplement is slow-mag. It is essential for bone health, easy on the stomach, helps to prevent constipation from pain meds and aids in muscle relaxation. Any slow release magnesium will do.
    Muscle pain and spasms are usually worse than bone or incision pain and magnesium helps.
    All the best!

  18. ‘Biden keeping his deal with Globalists’? You mean the U.S. is pathetically behind China and Europe in battery production:

    Zinc could really takeover lithium if scientists can get the electrons marching correctly:

    btw, get those dr christopher herbs and cbds, they both will help Elaine. Also, coloring books, any theme or motif you want, (great escape when you are immobile)

  19. Great to hear that Elaine is on the mend!

    It’s somewhat surprising the msm haven’t been cheering up the populace with the goings-on in New Zealand as the semi-final series of The America’s Cup is set to weigh anchor. England’s entry skippered by Sir Charles Benedict Ainsley CBE, known amongst peers as “Ben” is supported in the competition by $150+ million from the UK’s 5th richest man at $26 billion. While the American team’s backer is only worth $7 billion, he like the Brits brought the family into harbour on his super yacht. This apparently exempts having to quarantine with the rabble so long as $50,000 in spent in port retooling the yacht.

    Well…back to weighty matters of what’s for dinner…

  20. Some of your readers might find this of interest…..

    An excerpt from the above study :

    The study found that if the CDC had abided by the guidelines for reporting causes of deaths that they had been using for nearly two decades, the total COVID-19 fatalities would have been approximately 92 percent lower than what was reported.

    According to the calculations by the IPAK and the PHPI, by today’s numbers, that would take the 468,000 reported deaths down to just under 35,000.

    Consider that for 2017-2018 there were 61,000 influenza deaths (US) reported and for 2018-2019 there were 34,157 influenza deaths, the above report shows the actual death rate from COVID-19 to be below that of a mild influenza year.

    Something to think about…….


    OK… just to set things straight.. this is in no way intended to be a racist comment….
    but my god.. around here that would be almost considered stupid to do that… LOL LOL LOL

    for those of you feeling super sad for this poor woman.. here is her go fund me page..

    Now.. if a hot cup of coffee can get someone how much money was it.. I wonder what her legal options are.. and on the back I wonder if it will be covered in the if it stinks don’t smell it.. if it tastes bad don’t eat it.. if it hurts don’t do it.. what could they put this under.. not to be used as a lube or hair tonic.. LOL…

    • i really feel bad for her in a way.. I got a little bit of that on my finger once and it is nasty to get off…

  22. do not worry about daily hindenburg omens . i repeat do not worry .. george will tell you when to get out .. stay long and greedy its a very sensible thing to do with george as instructions

  23. George,
    Glad that E’s surgery went well and that she is home. And I hope her hairline fracture heals quickly.
    Our prayers and best wishes are still with you both.

  24. Haven’t stopped by here in a while, so first of all prayers and healing vibes your way for a speedy recovery.

    On the market side of things — let’s look at Twitter first:

    I knew not to short it in the 40’s when it was dropping on censorship issues. Well duh, chart showed it need an all-time high. It is close. If it gets to $73.74 and doesn’t go more than $1 – $3 higher, it will have a double top and likely collapse back to $16. My preferred target (its true market value) = $0.00. Ideal short entry would be about $75.57. Wait for that sucker to reach the minimum required for a high, then turn. The closer to the high (but above it) it turns, the higher the likelihood it collapses to 0. It is less than $2 away as I write this. If it turns short of the high or goes more than $3 above it, they have likely prolonged their existence.

    Rest of the market — Caution advised next week. I’m expecting S&P500 to top between 3935 (which it has already hit, but waves are a mess) and 3950. I’m pretty sure the wave up from 3620 needs to be corrected in it’s entirety, what I do not know right now is if we are going to bottom there & go back up or continue crashing. If it would have topped last week, I would have said bottom, but next week, timing and astrology opens up a different window.

    Gold has been the only asset class obeying the rules.

    I said the dollar would bottom (maybe not here) on 1/8 and that is the current high in EUR/USD. The dollar has been ahead of this market by a month. Will be looking for EUR/USD to turn south again between where it is and the 1.22 area, down to 1.16.

    Someone said deflationary, so yeah…

    I like the currency market. It’s harder to rig a market with over $4 Trillion in liquidity per day than an index of 30 or 500 stocks…

    • Well damn it, the 3950 call was correct but all we got was a sloppy mess down & today is a significant date, cycle wise. If I didn’t know any better, I’d call it a run of the mill dip with another high coming soon.

      The Twitter play triggered.

      Opened up Jan 2022 puts, strikes at $50, $30, and $20 lottos. Just hope than if/when it retraces back up with the rest of the market it stays within $1-$2 of the high.

  25. stopped by to see how Ealine was doing and good to hear that all went well and that her ‘personal assistant’ is taking care of all her needs and wants while making sure all is well stocked. Just remember to take care of yourself as well George!

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