While we await tomorrow’s federal employment numbers (look for the rate to maybe drop a 10th), we have some early job number previews out this morning:
ROSELAND, N.J. – September 4, 2014 – Private sector employment increased by 204,000 jobs from July to August according to the August ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by ADP®, a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
Also to be considered is the Challenger Job Cut report:
Planned job cuts announced by US-based employers totaled 40,010 in August, a 15 percent decline from the 46,887 planned layoffs reported in July, according to the report released Thursday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
The August total was 21 percent lower than the same month a year ago, when 50,462 job cuts were announced. This marks just the fourth time this year that the monthly total was lower than the comparable period a year ago.
Despite this trend, job cuts for the year are down slightly from 2013. Through August 31, planned job cuts total 332,931, which is 4.0 percent fewer than the 347,095 cuts announced between January and August of last year.
The problem for the market tomorrow walk be how to read it: If employment picks up too quickly, it may embolden Janet Yellen and the Fed to bump up rates and that would be bad.
Nice thing about economics? Even good news is bad (and bad news is good)… Dow futures are up 35…
Economic MiracleGro: Saved by Auto Sales
The kind of fertilizer behind the headlines is probably not of the same nifty spray-on genre as that fine plant food, being more likely of a more bovine source, but once again we see how Auto Sales are one of the major pillars holding the economy together.
In fact, this is the highest level of sales since 2006, reports the International Business Times.
Want to read something interesting from current Energy Information Administration statistics?
Yes, that’s right…looks to me like current gasoline consumption is about 86% of what it was last year. And that might explain why the price of crude oil has not gone skyward. Doggone high mileage cars, huh?
Crude this morning on the futures market was hovering just over $95…which means, methinks, that this is not going to be a big year for summer travel.
Reno Ascending
The article in Forbes about the expected announcement of the new Tesla Gigafactory there is worth reading.
Particularly if you’re into play real estate. More water than Denver, the gaming industry, and not too far from Tahoe…we’re likely to roll through there later this month on our way back to Texas…
With all these car sales, though, we have to wonders how Tesla will fare in the mass market. As always, the old crossing the chasm problem for marketing. Made easier by the true believer/early adopters who are huge fans…
More after this…
Hiding the Kids
For an administration that used to wrap itself in the word “transparency” we see this as yet another ,[three letter word of your choice; mine starts with an L].
NATO Hot-Talk
Look for terms like illegal annexation and barbaric killers as the NATO meetings are underway today. The annex action issue is, of course, Ukraine and the barbaric killers is ISIS. Further comments on the Ukraine situation in this morning’s Coping section.
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You might circle next Tuesday on your news junkie calendar: That’s when the first official take on the MH-17 crash over Ukraine is due out. The internet has been full of speculation about what happened…everything from catastrophic engine failure to gunfire from a Ukraine aircraft to a Russian missile (under whose control is debated, too). But, whatever it is, it’s sure to heating things up around Ukraine next week.
Ferguson Fallout: Fishing?
We read with interest how the Justice Department is launching a major investigation into the Ferguson, Missouri police department on a whole laundry list of issues. This follows the shooting death of Michael Brown that touched off rioting.
Missing from much of the press coverage is mention that the officer involved in the case was apparently seriously injured (broken facial bone structure) in events leading up to the shooting.
To the thinking observer, the announcement of such a broad inquiry may hint that the Justice Department may not have a specific (or weak) case with the officer, so they’re going after the whole department. This notion is further reinforced by descriptions that the probe will include other departments in St. Louis county, as well.
Pandemic: Looking Ahead
Keep an eye on Ebola for this fall and dragging into next year as the WHO says the situation continues to spiral out of control in Africa.
Prepping for sequential shut-ins in the future is not an absurd idea and there’s plenty of lead-time.
Climate Change Debate
OK, here we go – again. This time there’s an Oz report that the growth in sea ice is not proofd of climate change. If I may, one snip here and some opinion.
The snip:
Dramatic changes in temperature, sea level and extreme weather around the world are proof enough the planet is warming, they say; the only question is how these changes affect the Antarctic as they ripple through the climate system.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/antarctic-sea-ice-growth-does-not-negate-climate-change-scientists-say-20140903-10bon6.html#ixzz3CLoGzbAC
Well, hold on there, buckos and buckettes…
There’s a fair case to be made that the Earth is actually a large “matter condenser” which converts energy (from the Sun) into new matter and that is what grows planets (besides gravity). And since we know people who are in the submarine service, we hear that the undersea topology is changing and leads us to an explanation of sea level rise that doesn’t get much press: Growing undersea volcanoes. Just thinking out loud here.
And then when it comes to temperature data? Can we all go back to source data that hasn’t been jiggered and use modern data that is not in the middle of megawatt burning heat-island cities, please?
I don’t claim these are flawless answers, but Al Gore promised ice-free polar seas by now and they are zillions of miles from it.
The Wall St. Journal’s common sense “The Climate Change Agenda Needs to Adapt to Reality” would make sense, except in certain political races where out of state green money in the millions is buying a fresh crop of political puppets to pimp climate bullshit.
Oh, wait! Absent real jobs and things for people to do, we need to create an open-ended crisis that will give the next generation of political demagogues a platform from which to rule the masses.
Silly me…everything is still a business model. Even on Thursday.