Slop-Shot Monday: Channel Narrows

by

You ever shoot pool, or play golf?  I want you to think back to the wildest of those times.  To either when you rolled the golf-cart over while playing “polo golf” in the rain in Seattle at Jackson Field (Randy, my UPS driver a billion years ago, lost a $20-on that).  Or the time at the sailing bar when the “table was open” while doing it’s damnedest to hold up the player…  Slop shots in Life abound.

With a four-day week ahead, markets today are  kinda like that.

There’s a Bear Case and there’s a Bull Case.  We’ve chosen to play the “Just In Case” by sitting in cash.  Here’s why — starting with how we’re “replaying 1929”:

This is what comes out of lining up the February 19th high in our Aggregate Index and norming it to market data from the September 3 high back in 19-ought-29.

We were doing fine until late March.  Why, we were set to make bazillions and (actually) retire.  To a life of sleeping-in and writing brilliant novels.  Then the Fed went nuts at the printing press.  And it is still nuts and running with the most recent 90-day window (in the H.6 money stocks report, table 2) at an annualized rate of 88.5%.  Over a hundred percent in Table 1, but that’s slow-poke data.

The Trader’s Dilemma 

The big pink box above can  be argued as enclosing five Elliott Waves up.  And since the market has recently “gone soft on us” (never a good thing for masculinity of Bulls!) there are two cases to be concerned with.  IoW: Two sets of my “trading boxes” are worth pondering in here:  The three box set (green) says “done, stick a fork in this market!”  But the set of two boxes *(yellow) screams a rerun up to the old all-time high and a tiny bit past is also possible.  When in doubt, drink beer.

The short-term problem for the market is that with the modest rally foretold by dummying-up the futures pricing into the chart (which is why we’re “flattish” today) the tight down channel could be in trouble.  A tiny bit of rally – today and tomorrow?  But then, who wants to hold stocks over the Fourth which begins at Miller Time on the second?  (Is this a great country, or what?)

Something that 71+ year as taught me about forecasting the future?  When in doubt, don’t put money on it.  Wait for the trend to clarify.  We could go either way today and tomorrow…so let’s watch.

Stacking Dead Like Cord Wood

Several items fell out of our work this weekend on forecasting the pandemic’s results.  Some of this may not have “hit the press” yet, but we need to be “mentally ready” for some of the following to start showing up.

  • Globally, we could see 1/2-a billion cases before year end.
  • Barring breakthroughs in public health, year end globally could hit 522,270,628 cases.
  • The current rate of spread is about 11.23469% every five days.
  • Deaths will pile up:  By year-end, our projections estimate 4,279,606 dead globally.
  • Global deaths are compounding at a rate of 5.9626802%  every five days.

There are two ways to calculate mortality:  The “happy way” and the “Epidemiologically correct” way.  The happy talk way (deaths divided by total cases) is presently 4.944%.  But the correct calculation is higher (Cases with known outcomes into deaths) 8.887%.

The U.S. Outlook

Barring changes (which are expected) here’s how the US  could wind up 2020:

  • Our case count could be upwards of 131,098,363.
  • The U.S. death toll could reach 1,072,382.

Because we have much better medical and public health measures than South America, for example, we could expect the real tragedies will be external.

We also expect that at some point, rather than argue for a “global climate tax” the One-Worlders will make a pitch for a “global pandemic tax.”  Regardless of justifications offered, sit on your wallet and refuse.   Sure the numbers are big, though smaller (but may change) as people act stupid.

Wait!  Maybe it’s not an  act.  OMG…

Compounded by stories like Half of Tennessee coronavirus infections now come from an ‘unknown source’.  Ain’t that just peachy?  And the Wall Street Journal article (U.S. Coronavirus Cases Surge Amid Strains on Hospitals) makes the disease-savvy worry that as cases continue to grow, the outlook for running out of hospital equipment (PPE, ventilators, etc.) may not be past.

I had to pick up a prescription in town Saturday.  Half the people in the pharmacy (though 100% of staff)  were not wearing masks.  Again, we reiterate our long-held position:  CV-19 is NOT a political issue, it is a MEDICAL ISSUE.  And people dumb-enough not to figure that out, are at serious risk.  Especially in states like Arizona and Texas.  Where?  Country Judge up in Dallas, Clay Jenkins asks governor to require masks in Texas as Dallas County reports record 570 coronavirus cases.”

Unfortunately (for all of us) there are national media that continue to play the POLITICAL ANGLE to all this.  I’d offer as an example  The Atlantic whipping up (useless partisan bullshit) in “This Is Trump’s Plague Now.”  No, it’s CHINA’S PLAGUE.  Has everyone lost their frigging minds?  Who called Trump an idiot for closing down air travel?  Jesus help up…the world’s nuts.

Need more evidence?

Global Insanity Spreading (thanks Social Media!)

Defund police?  Why stop there?  Let’s empty jails into the CivPop, too!  Let’s try this out in, oh,  California: Governor Newsom pardons 13, commutes 21 sentences.  An  accessory to murder among ’em… great move!  Let’s all move to Seattle, huh?

Up there, the lefty’s still have their little gang-run commune stolen from property owners as the mayor sits on her ass.   As KING-TV reports Barriers in Seattle’s ‘CHOP’ zone remain after city talked of dismantling it Sunday.  Duh.  Lefty mayor and a commie council?  What could go wrong?  March to chant at the mayor’s house to demand “defunding?”  Stupid is as stupid votes…

Here in fly-over country, the idiocy hasn’t taken hold: ‘This is not Seattle’: Oklahoma City protest yields charges of terrorism, rioting, assault.  While the Oklahoma prosecutor is getting tough on crime, the local ACLU chapter up there says terrorism charges is an “abuse of power.”  So, inciting to riot, arson, rioting, attacking cops is…what, nursery school?

As a once, long-ago, member of the ACLU, this kind of sloppy thinking is why I quit.  Enforcing the law is NOT AN ABUSE OF POWER.  Shit – Why can’t people separate process and the law (law & order) from the Digital Uprising?  Stupid…just freaking stupid.  Where’s the “grown up media?”  Besides here…

Blood Pressure Up Yet?

We’ll keep going, then…

We observe the Washington Post being deliriously wrong again in “The world’s climate catastrophe worsens amid the pandemic.”  No, actually, with fewer people flying, driving, and locking dow, there’s less climate load…  The story admits this and then goes off hand-wringing…FMTT. (Who are these people that can’t figure out that “if everyone dies, there’s no climate problem?”)

Paint  Vice  as another alarmist outpost for their This Map Shows Which U.S. Homes Will Flood Over the Next 30 Years Due to Climate Change.  Wait…let’s go back to the Map of NY City underwater by now, can we? Can we?  Huh?  Huh?  Please?

Well, absent facts, how about we roll with utter gibberish?  Wolf this one down: Climate drives intraspecific differentiation in the expression of growth-defence trade-offs in a long-lived pine species.   (We run a tree farm here and have no idea what the f*ck these Brits are getting at…so we will keep cutting down sequestered carbon sticks as mood swings, landscaping whims, and prices drive us…)

“Adaptive and plastic responses…”  WTF, even Darwin didn’t go so gibberish.  Elites in charge warning!…Everyone bow down to gibberish.

Fact of the matter (so far as we can figure it)  is Climate preachers are learning from Marxists:  Make up NuSpeak, use NuWerds and you will own Fear Factors…and that will get you published…

“Please George, Tell Us Something GOOD”

Good news doesn’t sell.  And bad news does.  Which is why bad news and fear-flaming is what media does now.

We are out of logical improvements and capitalism is in its death throes due to a lack of growth.  The commies see a vacuum (beyond the one between their ears) so what happens next is “Life in the Blender.”  Making up The Crisis Industry!  (More on this in upcoming Peoplenomics reports.)

Now,  we will just have a nice breakfast, watch the lawn grow, and work in the shop for a while.

Life’s too short for B.S.  Real news tomorrow as we get monthly housing data from Case Shiller.  Dallas Fed Manufacturing numbers mid-session today.

Dow Futures now up 210, so the Monday-Tuesday Rally theory may be in play.  We don’t play in the street when the traffic is confused.

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

54 thoughts on “Slop-Shot Monday: Channel Narrows”

    • Of course they are pushing this in South Africa. The entire country is the beta test for what they are now trying to do in the US. Look at a ten year old map of the country and see how the names have all changed. Same methodology.

  2. Breakfast of Champions – AGAIN ! FMTT FEAR!FEAR!FEAR!FEAR!FEAR – BE AFRAID DEAR READERS, BE VERY AFRAID..

    GOOD , now put Ure Masks on and get ready for Sharia Law to be implemented in Ure town soonly..

    -Sheep have recently let it be known that they are OFFENDED by the comparisons being made between ovis aries and Humans.

    Ure Virus Stats are SUSPECT at BEST, reality = DAM LIES..which makes George Ure a what? What the hell happened to honest reporting – oh thats right Ure Mockingbird media now..

    U didnt see NJ spiked Death count by 2000 on June 28th by going back RE-CLASSIFYING ANY Death that could be remotely related..Just as NY did last month.

    Just 2 cases of Statistical FRAUD – “heres Ure biscuit! such a good, LYING dog”

    DEEP STATE TOOL or Transgendered Libatard – begining to wonder..

    George Ure and malignancy pelosi on the SAME page, in the same boat – who’d athunk it?

    Think I’ll go blow some big baby chunks now..nice.

    The solution…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5IO66MIq_U

    • “COVI-pass.”

      President George W. Bush, in an address to a joint session of Congress on September 20, 2001 said, “Every nation, in every region, now has a decision to make. Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.”

  4. George

    “So, inciting to riot, arson, rioting, attacking cops is…what, nursery school?”

    David John Oates a researcher of Reverse Speech was on Ground Zero radio a few nights ago. His business is to help people with personal problems by exploring their reverse speech. His major comments on the program was that most of his clients are talking about a coming War in their reverse speech. He said he was surprised and concerned about the concentration of people with this speech pattern.

    As Reverse Speech comes from the subconscious mind I tend to believe that the results can be viewed as a form of Remote Viewing. As I have had an RV training session with a military trained remote viewer and found that it’s for real I believe that the reverse speech data is of great concern and shows that the Powers That Be will take us to war!

    That’s the only way they can get what they want, a one world government.

    Pray and prepare!

    • Interesting about the reverse speech. Although not so much subconscious now. Right out in the open. I’ve been telling friends for two years that a civil war is coming. Then the big one. Sheeple.

  6. firstly George the two worst days in history of dow are Tuesday and Monday and in that order .. secondly the devil would vacate to the guy in the roof if these blokes turned .. you could close the sewers of wall and the cme , fed could abandon , all states close and the whole country sick or dead from covid and they would still rally .. yep a big rigged game for them .. thieving 24/7 every day every year

    • My net profit for the trading day was only $60.14…but hey…rigged only matters if you don’t know how to go along with the riggers…

  7. Hi G

    What’s with some of the people who post here? Its like reading the thoughts of someone on serious meds. Disjointed or maybe too jointed. They jump around using what reads as gibberish thoughts. Some days when I tried to read them I feel like I’m missing some code or something.
    Is it just me as a Canadian, or are some of these posters missing a peg?

  8. George, so let me get this straight:
    -After botching the virus [redacted for making up another TDS rant. Not responsive to my post. Again and into the penalty box! – g]
    -Wow. Best, Mike.

  10. The police protect the mayors and the mayors protect the police. C’mon, you want to protect the people who hid the Epstein murder/suicide video. We don’t need this system as it has become corrupt to the core.

    Here’s a classic, “Take back your city NOW. If you don’t do it, I will.”

    That’s the best idea the leader had. Tweeting words. Trump had it right. Conservatives went for the symbolism even without substance. CHOP is still chopping along. High fives all around. No action.

    Michigan had two big Lansing protests in May. “The woman” said it would be fatal. I don’t know of any fatalities.

    • Steve, the system is corrupt but of the people in the system, very few outside of politics are.

      There are more than 200k incident calls to the police in the U.S., daily — 1.5mln per week. Of that million-5, George Soros’ minions have managed to cherry-pick less than 1 per week to turn into BLM ammo (remember, Soros owns or controls over 450 news organizations in the United States which, in the aggregate, have untold thousands of local newsfeeds.) Out of those thousands of feeds, and 40 million police incident responses this year (not counting rioting), The Soros Group has been able to cull perhaps a half-dozen occasions where something was so egregious as to actually feed BLM’s (public) narrative. How many incidents, do you suppose, involved Asian or Caucasian victims whose plight went unnoticed and unreported, because the color of their skin didn’t fit the Marxist narrative?

      “it has become corrupt to the core.”

      No, it has become corrupt AT the core.

      “CHOP is still chopping along. High fives all around. No action.”

      Yup. The flower-child wannabee who’s the Mayor of Seattle is out of her league, as are most of the City Council. The way to “fix” “CHOP” is to stop feeding the insurrectionists and stop bringing them porta-johns. Evacuate the area residents, under heavy guard, then seal it off. Let the children who’ve taken over, eat their own, and charge them with “sedition” and “insurrection” when they give up… And sue them for restitution, for everything they’ve destroyed or vandalized.

      “Michigan had two big Lansing protests in May. “The woman” said it would be fatal. I don’t know of any fatalities.”

      Whitmer is out of her league also, and is a socialist, wannabee autocrat. She was a pr!ck in the Legislature, she’s a pr!ck now, and needs for the good People of Michigan to “retire her.” They deserve better…

  11. George,
    Your comment mocking the headline that this is Trumps Plague needs to be re-calculated. It is Trumps Plague. Hear me out before you redact me.

    While Trump did restrict travel from China, he didn’t halt it. 40,000 Chinese travelers continued to go back and forth after the travel ban…with most being flown into New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco. After the travel ban, 279 flights from China arrived in the U.S. and screening procedure were very uneven. Most of those flights came from Beijing, but that was a connection from Wuhan, a major industrial center for the production of goods worldwide. It was a sh*# show. Nobody really knew what to do.

    [Democrats did – they were all over Trump for doing this! Impeachers and impeders, Mark…look at the record! I’m going to demand my congressman immediately move to impeach Biden for this Ukraine dossier I found on line – g]

    Trump then acted like that was all he needed to do. This is Like an old kitchen with a sink clog. If one had the old style hot and cold water valves and the water was running from both, but The sink wasn’t draining due to a clog, you turn off both the hot and cold water to keep the sink from overflowing right? Then, you get a snake, some draino and go at it to unclog the clog.

    But Trump just turned off the cold water. The hot water kept on running and it was scalding hot, overflowing onto the kitchen floor, stripping the varnish off of the cabinets, melting the vinyl floor, causing steam to buildup in the house, allowing mold to form and the floor to collapse due to the weight of the water. That’s what we have now. Trump didn’t think to turn off the hot water and unclog the drain. Instead, he said it will all go away, fix itself and went into denial mode. He still is in denial mode.

    [Trump is manipulated by many Obama and older hold-overs including Fauci and we won’t even go into what his interests might be…-g]

    Why don’t we talk about May of 2018 when Trump disbands pandemic response team. The. In September of that year, when present with an Obama ordered plan to build,a machine to make 1.5 million N95 respirator masks, he decided to not move forward.

    [again, on advice… g]

    On January 22 [redact – no one except Urban was calling it in this timeframe…Trump was trying to keep a trade deal alive in here – g]

    Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross says coronavirus outbreak in China could be an economic boon: “I think it will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America.”

    [He will likely be right in the longer-term. Not everything is in the “now” – g]

    Azar reportedly calls Trump to warn him of a possible pandemic. Trump downplays the threat, responding that “Azar was being alarmist,” according to the New York Times.

    [Again January who no one (save us) had it right – g]

    January 31

    [again – president GIGO and bad advice when no one knew – g]

    Redfield: “The risk at this time to the American public is low.”
    In move he will trumpet long afterward, Trump shuts down travel of foreign nationals who’ve been in China. The restriction comes two weeks after travelers stricken with the virus appear to have spread it in the U.S. An estimated 300,000 people have arrived from China in the previous month.

    February 5
    @ChrisMurphyCT
    Just… [NO!!! Quoting an anti-Trump Connecticut (Joe who?) jr. Senator? Come on Mark….NFW! – g]

    February 10
    Trump downplays threat to U.S.: “The virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in.”
    Trump White House unveils 2021 budget request, including an $85 million cut (13 percent) for the CDC’s Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases program, and a $25 million cut (3 percent) to its Public Health Preparedness and Response.

    [Both done on advice of staff and the people working on budgets – bad linkage but another example of how Trump got expertized into a corner – Fauci et al were selling “heat will fix” in that window. Don’t go all Berkeley revisionist on me, now – g]

    February 14
    Trump touts poll numbers[ redact – this is about virus and second-guessing, not polling spew…-g]

    February 24
    @realDonaldTrump
    The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!

    [again, he was being told what? FMTT Mark, he’s surrounded by embeds, political hacks, and career schemers…-g]

    February 25
    Trump campaign spokesperson Kayleigh McEnany tells FoxNews: “We will not see diseases like the coronavirus come here… and isn’t it refreshing when contrasting it with the awful presidency of President Obama.” (McEnany will soon be hired as White House spokesperson.)
    [OK, ok, winds between the ears on this one… g]

    February 26
    Trump downplays seriousness of COVID-19, “This is a flu. This is like a flu.” Adds: “We have a total of 15 [diagnosed] people, and they’re in a process of recovering… In a couple of days we’re going to be down to close to zero. We’re going down, not up. We’re going substantially down.”

    [Again, on advice. The medical community acknowledged in this timeframe that CV’s spread in a flu-like way and that at least four have been in the wild forever…g]

    February 27th
    Trump: “It’s going to disappear. One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”

    [Fauci et al were whispering…Trump wasn’t doctorinig Mark, JFC…-g]

    March 4
    Trump in appearance on Hannity: “We have hundreds of thousands of people who get better just by sitting around and even going to work. Some of them go to work, but they get better.” Muses on death rate: “I think the 3.4 percent number is really a false number. Now this is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations … personally, I’d say the number is way under 1 percent.”

    [We still don’t REALLY know what the numbers are and WHICH CV is the one that matters most. You see there are multiple strains? This supports the notion of a global bioweapon attack…one lone bat would not do this kind of damage -g]

    March 6
    Trump [redact – g]: “As of right now anybody who needs a test [can get one] and the tests are all perfect. Like the letter was perfect.” Trump admits he wants to keep infection numbers low, advises against unloading a cruise ship with sick passengers off the coast of California: “I like the numbers being where they are. I don’t need to have the numbers double because of one ship. That wasn’t our fault.” Trump praises his own understanding of the science: “I really get it. People here are surprised that I understand it…. Maybe I have natural ability.”

    [OK, point for lack of depth, point for egomania, point for insensitive to cruise industry… g]

    March 16
    Alarmed by CDC sentinel study, six Bay Area counties in Northern California order residents to shelter in place.
    France on lockdown.
    Asked to evaluate his response on a 10-point scale Trump says: “I’d rate it a 10.

    [If he’s being lied to here, he didn’t know it – and I expect this was the case. You know, Mark, dealing with you on this is a lot like dealing with some Dpt of Education people I dealt with once. When you prove to them something was “not in the regulations” at a point in time, they still try to dog the issue which was not in play. IoW making up a false narrative for administration (or in this case, Anti-Trump) ends – g]

    March 17 Death Toll: 121
    March Madness NCAA tournament cancelled.
    Trump: “I’ve always known this is a real…pandemic“

    [Got some honest advice, finally in this timeframe? – g]

    March 22
    @realDonaldTrump
    WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!

    Trump muses to reporters: “How life can change. 20 to 22 days ago, everything’s perfect. We’re looking forward…more jobs & more everything. And then one day we get hit with this thing that nobody ever heard of before. Nobody ever even heard of before.”

    The rest is history
    – – –
    [No, not exactly. The demagogue party hasn’t done anything more than argue and obstruct. The second wave (and crashing the market) will likely be along before the election. People will be losing jobs and willing to risk going to work (with a mask on) in order not to have their families thrown out on the street. And that’s the aspect of all this that I don’t see reflected in your anti-Trump invective, Mark. There is – at the macro level – a trade off between dumping right into a Depression or stumbling through the zone we’re in now. You just may not see it yet. To me, there’s a horrific price to be paid by both sides of the political ledger. As I asked in my personal email to you (since this is another too much Trump blaming) let me repeat what I told you a few days ago:
    “UrbanSurvival is, at its core, not a political site. Sure, we dabble. But the “What people come for it to get the economics they’re getting. And that’s our core mission.
    On the edge of a potential precipice, politics pales to the larger issue of Urban Survival. I follow that because EBM, right?”

    No more Trump posts…thank you. Everyone has 2020 hindsight and it’s easy to be a critic after-the-fact. George]

    • No one save you had it right? Narcissistic much? The entire world had it right. Trump knew…he just didn’t want it to ruin his planned rallies and campaign. Bolton got that right in his book. The military is next. Watch them annihilate Trump in the coming days. As leader of the armed forces, he could be forced to go in front of a tribunal .

      • Everybody’s hero, Fauci, in late January:

        “”We don’t want the American public to be worried about this because their risk is low,” says Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “On the other hand, we are taking this very seriously and are dealing very closely with Chinese authorities.””
        https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/01/23/coronavirus-wuhan-china-quarantine-vaccine/4551112002/

        NPR on coronavirus vs flu on Jan 29:

        “So far, the only people infected in the U.S. have been those who have traveled to the region in China where the virus first turned up in humans. And though that could change, one thing is for certain: Another severe respiratory virus that threatens lives — the influenza or flu virus — is very active in the U.S. right now.”
        https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/01/29/800813299/worried-about-catching-the-new-coronavirus-in-the-u-s-flu-is-a-bigger-threat

        USA Today, Jan 24:
        “There’s a deadly virus spreading from state to state. It preys on the most vulnerable, striking the sick and the old without mercy. In just the past few months, it has claimed the lives of at least 39 children.

        The virus is influenza, and it poses a far greater threat to Americans than the coronavirus from China that has made headlines around the world.

        “When we think about the relative danger of this new coronavirus and influenza, there’s just no comparison,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and health policy at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. “Coronavirus will be a blip on the horizon in comparison. The risk is trivial.”
        https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/01/24/coronavirus-versus-flu-influenza-deadlier-than-wuhan-china-disease/4564133002/

        Most people, including most of the press and probably most of Trump’s advisors, were not particularly worried until late Feb to early March. You can bitch and moan about Trump’s response early on, you can go on about how much better you knew, but that’s where things were. I was talking to my wife about this in early January; most people, including the press that likes to criticize Trump for knowing the future, were not worried until at least late February. If you want to crucify Trump for what he didn’t know, I expect to hear you go after the press and the scientists that were saying the same thing as well.

        • Thank you – which goes PRECISELY to my point that as the nation'[s CEO has HAS to take expert advice.
          Sometimes the CEO is lucky (OBama) other times the deck is stacked

      • @Mark,quote,”The military is next. Watch them annihilate Trump in the coming days. As leader of the armed forces, he could be forced to go in front of a tribunal .”

        I believe this is a BIG no-no, not while he is in office, you have to get the senate to remove him first, which the bastards tried to do but failed.Any officer that tries to remove a sitting president, is subject to court martial,this is why the military recuited Trump,they back him, BUT there are some bad apples that are being exposed and they are the ones in hot water ,Mark you lose, America wins
        God bless Gen. Flynn a true patriot

        the calm before the storm 1 min video
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZ6vxCC_SYk

    • “While Trump did restrict travel from China, he didn’t halt it. 40,000 Chinese travelers continued to go back and forth after the travel ban…”

      Absolutely.. he went option 2.. he should have gone option 1.. but he went option 2.. now he is trying option 3..
      option two left the velocity of money .,. and that included travel as well..option 3 won’t work either.. If he had gone option 1 and shut the velocity of money down.. you would have heard a lot of screaming about that.. I truly believed that going option 2 would be ok.. what he didn’t realize and that most people don’t realize is to keep the velocity going is all dependent on the laboring class.. once you miss a payment.. well you start into a spiral.. most people don’t have the few thousand in the pocket to keep it moving.. that is why one in two laborers are on social programs..
      since going option two and option three is just going to expedite the situation.. then he should just dump more money on the table enough to let the noodle float a while longer.. then let the Demoralcraps own the situation.. damned if you do damned if you don’t.. we are in the car on the roller coaster and I am afraid it is to late to get off of it.
      sheets of paper and blank computer screens filled with numbers can’t turn the tide of this one..
      the geico pig says it best..
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMTfHbc788Y

    • As I recall, during the early stages of the pandemic, Mark was in denial, and DJT was taking aggressive action with little or no support from the deep state actors.
      With the horror of the economic fallout in everyone’s face, denial has become fashionable again amongst the elites and wannabe elites. So when will Mark flip-flop again? Stay tuned to Ure favorite soap.

      • Holy crap, you’re absolutely right.

        Mark on January 30, 2020 at 11:38
        On the heels of a fake China virus scare, the inability of the GOP to fess up their disgust in an extremely corrupt and brainless President, a real tragedy in Kobe’s death…there is some real positive news as one of the many Bay Area darlings…Tesla, is witnessing its stock skyrocket on incredible earnings report. Even Jim Cramer, a former skeptic turned.

        Mark must be as dumb as Trump, not to be worried about the virus in late January when Trump was trying to limit entry of Chinese nationals.

      • Mark on January 30, 2020 at 12:16
        8,000 cases and 170 dead is bull crap. The deaths equals 0.00000017% of their population. Compare that the the common influenza virus that has killed 8,200 people in the U.S this year alone. According to the Center for Disese control, at least 12,000 people will die from the flu in the U.S every year.

        You are a victim of your own hype and the hype of the conspiracy theorists George. It’s the mental disease you all get when you start to believe that Trump is a good President

    • Why don’t we talk about May of 2018 when Trump disbands pandemic response team. The. In September of that year, when present with an Obama ordered plan to build,a machine to make 1.5 million N95 respirator masks, he decided to not move forward.

      Trump “disbanded” the PRT to replace it with a pandemic response hierarchy which actually worked, and was not bureaucratically top-heavy with “dead wood.” This is the only way to get rid of government employees who suck at life and their jobs.

      I haven’t heard about any “N95 machine,” and the idea is so absurd as to not warrant investigation. I’ll just ask you:

      Which government, anywhere on Earth, manufactures anything?

      and

      By what Right has the President, ANY President of the United States, to order anything built, outside of the WPA?

      Sorry, this is total BS. I suggest you place whatever source you used for it in the “proven unreliable” pile, because it is certainly a “pile…”

      I began analyzing commentary on the President during the Clinton Administration. Willy has the gift of gab, but he is not a good or nice person. With that said, it positively offended me, that as bad an actor as he is, the talkers made up sh!t about him. When I began to teach my kids about “politics” I used this, by asking them: “If President Clinton is such a bad person (and he is), why do you suppose people make up stuff which is demonstrably false, when they should just be reporting on the bad stuff he does?”

  13. A much as I hate to admit it, the situation on the ground in Texas is now deteriorating. I had originally contended that new Covid infections would slow down due to lack of willing volunteers. Apparently, I have been shown to be wrong on that one point. Our youngsters, who still believe that they are going to live forever, are volunteering in droves for a dose.
    I am currently working again from home, and I have tightened up on mask use and disinfection protocols. You can’t trust people, especially the young ones, to do the right thing and voluntarily isolate when they are sick with a fever, or have been potentially exposed to the gift. “Everybody but me” is a fashionable street lifestyle. Covid and denial rule the streets this summer.

    • They laughed when I bought 3-more gallons of regular Clorox and I told my buddy OM2 we were not “going lightly” on this virus thing. I hope he doesn’t get it, but odds are odds. I buy lotto ticks,; too…

      • http://swimforhim.org/chlorine-producing-unit/

        about two thirds cup of salt ( without iodine) per gallon of water..

        they have kids making these.. the profits from them selling them they use towards making units for missionaries and small villages that have tainted water unsafe to drink..
        I have two of them.. one for chlorine the other for hydrogenated water..

  14. Mike Pompeo is hidden in plain sight. His “LIVE EXERCISE” could result in the greatest transfer of artificial human intelligence the world has ever seen. The Secretary of State turns out to be the greatest mastermind of the NWO,that Trump states”you could have told us “, in front of the world!
    The Darwin award committee is in trouble. It doesn’t get more obvious than this. They don’t need useless eaters.
    THEY ARE HERE, RODDY! (Have been here awhile too, they mine gold…) They want it all.

    • minefullman, you misquoted President Trump, he said “they could have told US” referring to Chyna,, Trump was acting the part of the choir, backing what Pompeo was saying. I saw that that speech in a video!!!
      We use a Y in Chyna, refering to the adrenochrome molecule, it is shaped like a rabbit
      Do you want to know more about the drug, that the satanic pedos extract from tortured children
      Alice in Wonderland, this rabbit hole goes deeper than normal people want to know,,pure evil
      the choice is yours to know, once you see,,you can not un-see

      https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239993394144972800.html

  15. How do 4,279,606 deaths from 522,270,628 world wide cases translate into 4.944% to 8.887%?

    • You have to go back and read the post. (Statistic discussion follows)
      the fatality rates cited are on current data and 5 day old data.
      As you will logically figure, as the differential between them continues over time (cases going up at 10-11% and deaths only going up 5-6%, then the mortality rate will come down.
      However, on the back end there will be lots of residual deaths when we get into the overshoot period (as we did last month before Memorial day and riots kicked it up again. The final percentage on the honest accounting of this may never be known.

  16. “Spies and Commandos Warned Months Ago of Russian Bounties on U.S. Troops

    The recovery of large amounts of American cash at a Taliban outpost in Afghanistan helped tip off U.S. officials. It is believed that at least one U.S. troop death was the result of the bounties…

    …senior intelligence officials aren’t convinced about the reliability of the reports and that they never reached President Trump or Vice President Pence personally. ”

    Etcetera, etcetera, ad infinitium, ad nauseum…

    This is bogus.

    If it had any veracity whatsoever, it’d have shown up in the President’s Daily Briefing, months ago. The Talibani have a high degree of dislike for Americans, and are highly motivated religious zealots. THEY don’t need motivation. There is no possible reason for Putin’s Russia to bounty any generic U.S. soldier for any reason at all, and strong reasons for him not to. Since Mr. Trump has expressed his desire to remove our Armed Forces from Afghanistan post haste — Something the Taliban would strongly favor, and a process which would be delayed or negated by murdering Americans for profit, the NYT writeup is a fabrication.

    I suspect it may be the first salvo in the coming production of “Impeachment, Part Deux,” since Pelosi only has 6 months with which to work, and bad summer rerun season IS upon us…

      • Better yet: Got any proof that cash was found, and what constitutes a “large amount?”

        My cynicism may be in overdrive today, but I’m getting damn’ tired of reading stuff in the NYT/WaPo/WSJ which is, at best, blind anonymous rumor, unsubstantiated and unsubstantiable, yet which drives a weeks-long, piranha-like killing frenzy in the lamestream.

        GMAFB! If it is extraordinarily unlikely, and benefits none of the primary or secondary players but could conceivably be used as political fodder against the President, it is a fabrication… e v e r y s i n g l e t i m e.

    • Several thoughts in passing..

      1) Taliban motivations are complex, not the least of which is to show the decisive defeat of the US. In their point of view, you do this by being seen to drive the US out, striking them at every opportunity. This is why there will be no quiet departure regardless of agreements, it is not in their interest to allow it. They intend to be the dominant religious-political force in the country when the dust settles, and they want everyone to know it. That will also result in time for a growing number of “fence sitters” buried in the existing government to commit to their “winning side”.

      2) Bonus payments have a long history. Flying Tigers in WW II were granted a $500 USD bonus by the Chinese government for every Japanese plane destroyed. In the 1700’s, French and British forces, and as late as during the 1800’s, the Mexican government, paid for scalps of Native Americans. Japanese were known to reward samurai for returning with the heads of enemies during their early warring period. Egyptians in the early dynasties, counted the number of hands taken, as well as prisoners, to determine rewards and honors. In all these cases I would argue, it isn’t the payment that is the motivation, it is the tangible evidence of success on the one hand, and the morale effect on the enemy that counts.

      3) Getting into the Presidents Daily Brief. Unless it is a matter of extreme importance (e.g. Massive missile attack on the US or a Benghazi type event) that has to get to the President for a decision within minutes, the reports and analysis the President sees in his daily brief are generally 24 to 72 hours after the fact. They will have been coordinated to death by the intelligence agencies and the PDB Team to identify what they think is important enough to reach the President that day. There are time constraints for briefing limits which have an effect on any visual presentation the President sees, although the items dropped from any visual presentation may be included in the text, which requires reading. Some Presidents were voracious readers, others pick and skip through to see what catches their eye. He, of course, can ask for a report on anything, but that can take a day, or more, to research and prepare.

      • 1)

        The Taliban controls the media. Therefore, “reality” is whatever they say it is. Every despotic regime in the history of the World has done this, whether they did, or not.

        Two things every world leader has come to know about Mr. Trump:

        1) He is not a warhawk
        2) he IS a construction worker from Queens, with money, and he doesn’t push worth a damn’

        2) “The Flying Tigers” were mercs. Most (but not all) were American and Canadian. They flew P40s because the Army Air Force had obsolesced them, and accordingly, they were the most-modern Fighter that Chiang and the Chinese could buy. The Japanese Mitsubishi A6M outclassed them in every metric, yet the Tigers held their own against them, for years. When we were pulled into WW-II Most of the Flying Tigers were offered commissions in the USArmy because they were proven, highly-skilled combat pilots.

        With that said, mercenaries from any era are paid for results only, not for methods.

        The American Indian scalped his conquest for a thousand years before France ever heard tell of the Bayou. ‘Not sure about the Brits, but the French adopted this practice, not to earn a bounty, but to earn respect from the Tribes with whom they wished to associate or do business. “Counting coup” was one of very few ways for an outsider to earn respect from tribal elders (irrespective of tribe.) Indians would scalp women and children, if they were a raiding party, or if the women seemed unlikely to make good slaves. The more scalps a Brave had, the more weight his opinion carried in Council. The Council Elders never asked from whom the scalps came…

        ” the reports and analysis the President sees in his daily brief are generally 24 to 72 hours after the fact.”

        You actually know more about the PDB than the vast majority of Americans. The info isn’t three days old before it is presented, although it might be presented for several consecutive days, as in-situ responses are tweaked. Unlikely or unsubstantiated info from both rumors and CIA covert ops go through a sieve to determine if they have any veracity. If so, they are investigated and once confirmed and delineated, may rise to the importance level of the PDB, and if not are dealt with by mid-level brass from the appropriate Agency. The vast majority of them are 86’d for being worthless…

        Oh, and things like an attack aren’t in the PDB. The President is always given such intel immediately, whenever it should arrive. Should there be a 3am missile attack in CONUS, da Prez would be verbally briefed as he was escorted to the Situation Room.

  17. BTW George, where I’ve played, they don’t allow slop-shots — You’ve got to call both the rails and the kisses, and “jumping” is illegal…

  18. yeah you really gotta think some here are just total under the spell .. if not using bad language or attacking individuals I express my opinion on the scam called ussa which is coming to an end that is ok .. if I want to short I will .. you only make a profit or loss when you close a position .. money always finds the best home .. currently buried underground or shorts .. in order to sell high buy cheap .. leveraged shorts with time are cheap .. so you all do as you like and see if YOU can make it for 25 years and stay strong

  19. George,
    What a shame. You redacted the exact words that came out of Trumps mouth. They weren’t taken out of context. They are his words. The worlds smartest minds are with me on this. You are smart. Why can’t you see what lies right in front of your eyes and ears? Take your platform and demand another Republican candidate then. I can write letters to the GOP all day long. It won’t help. But don’t tell me for one minute that you or anyone else on this site is happy with Trump. If you are, then you are part of the problem. Wait till the million speaks out this week. It will all be over soon.

    • @Marx

      everyone but YOU ..”are part of the problem”……
      May YOUR hatred for President Trump…carry you a way……..
      you ignore the Deep State/Shadow government as if IT does not exist…and still believe YOUR way or the highway …..for the rest of us…..
      I choose the ‘high road’….you took the wrong ‘fork’ in the road…..now my reading or responding to you is done….
      You are just another ‘useful idiot’….who thinks he KNOWS everything…I disagree…have a good life….

    • “The worlds smartest minds are with me on this.”

      Yet there’s not a lick of common sense amongst the lot…

  20. Just when we’re trying to get our bearings in the middle of a full scale communist insurrection and bio-war, a couple of our gifted senators introduced this:

    https://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/blog/2020/06/there%E2%80%99s-now-even-worse-anti-encryption-bill-earn-it-doesn%E2%80%99t-make-earn-it-bill-ok

    Essentially, it outlaws end to end encryption without a backdoor and requires all operating systems to have a back door. These could then be accessed by law enforcement via real or fake warrants, and by anyone else with a few social and technical engineering skills. An OS backdoor would allow any computer to be loaded with incriminating files by anyone that finds it.

    “Gentlemen don’t read others’ mail!”.

    They generally don’t peep into neighbor’s bedrooms, but with unencrypted IoT, it becomes very easy.

    Since our “leaders” have essentially stated that they don’t trust the people, why would we trust them? This is just another awful bill trying to slide under the radar using the COVID/riot distractions and the coming holiday to mark up and advance this thing. BTW, for the coiners, there’s talk that it could outlaw crypto-currency, but that’s another story. I’ve yet to see the actual text.

    • Spend a little time reading Steve Gibson’s archives (Gibson Research — grc.com.)

      My secure stuff involves versions of PGP which were written before the Feds dropped the charges against Zimmerman… and don’t involve DES or any other USG encryption scheme. Some *NIX operating systems are secure. NO Microsoft OS is. This is why secure USG computers run custom BSD or Debian distros…

  21. “Gentlemen don’t read others’ mail!”.

    Well working in a waste facility.. that is why I bought a shredder.. all the time officials are out.. doing just that.. randomly picking through peoples trash reading the mail.. etc.. it use to disgust me.. that I bought a shredder and shred anything personal.. people are out at the courthouse as well going through the files.. want to know something about someone.. you can walk right in and take a gander..

    “They generally don’t peep into neighbor’s bedrooms,”

    Now that just doesn’t sound like much fun Mike… haven’t you always been curious… seen some one walking along the street or sidewalk and wondering dam.. I wonder what she would be like.. that is why we have eye candy .. cheerleaders.. and models that are anorexic.. advertising sex and death the two major selling points.. that is why you read the nasty on everything in the paper.. you don’t read about the guy that helped this one or is taking care of puppies.
    It is just human curiosity.. I stand guilty as charged as does every man or woman walking the earth.. dam look at her or god I love his ab’s.. women are the same way to..
    stuffing the jeans
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsgW34ncEoY

    • Well, that was gross. I’ve never appreciated what women see in the male form, and that’s been part of my difficulty in knowing what to optimize in myself. OTOH, I can absolutely appreciate the optimized female form and do so at every opportunity!

      Regarding shredders, after destroying two of them with too many papers, I burn everything that’s paper garbage, along with wood. The only things that leave this property intact are generic plastic food containers and similar that might come from Walmart. Even if it just has my address on a shipping label, it goes in the fire.

    • “randomly picking through peoples trash reading the mail”

      My kiddie hacker acquaintances used to do this, to glean passwords to places to which they shouldn’t have access. There’s a lot of stuff the layman can learn from the movie WarGames, which is still applicable today — nearly 40 years later, or from the TV series “Leverage…” and yes, Virginia, you CAN still buy wardialers…

      People who’re shy about ecommerce look at me strangely when I tell them eBay and Amazon are far more secure than their bank…

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