Right Now the Fed Matters

Political distractions aside, the real news is under the surface this week. As the market claws its way higher, we are looking at much of the same data the Fed uses and coming to some interesting conclusions. 

As a result, our normal “focus” piece will be an expanded ChartPack today with all eyes on where this market may go later this year and into next.

Right after some headlines and more coffee…

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George Ure
Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share UrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/

10 thoughts on “Right Now the Fed Matters”

  1. G – I guess thats why everything seems so out of whack – The X Wave – in the theaters now..

    1st there was the Big Short – a movie about mortgage backed securities debacle of 2007-8

    The movie I am investing in is titled..Bohica Baby..

    MMT till it hurts, Negative Yield Sovereign Debt and the biggie of all – Negative Yield Corporate “Junk Rated” Bonds.

    Thats right campers, corporate junk bonds that usually have a HIGHER Rate of Interest/Yield to “compensate” for Poor Credit Risk – the Higher rate compensates the buyer for the higher level of risk associated with Junk Bonds.

    All this financial malfeasance while big bullion banks keep inflating the “float” of paper contracts, as buying pressure comes in .. thats how they manipulate the price and keep it from running FREE – which of course represents one of the best “coiled spring” investment opportunities in ages – IMHO.

    Patience = waiting for the market to come to you – the 30-40% correction/pullback is a happening.

    Caveat Emptor – if U do not hold the physical BTC, U R trading a Derivative Contract of BTC. Do not leave ANY Coins on ANY exchange PERIOD – this is UR sovereign wealth after all..

  2. It looks to me like the ‘market’ has about completed a “Megaphone Top”, aka “Expanding Formation” or “Jaws-of-Death”.
    Eyeballing your Aggregate Chart there is about a 6,000 point spread which is the potential drop below the lowest point which would put the Aggregate around 15,000- OUCH!
    I have been doing industrial control systems since the mid 1960’s and these patterns sometimes show up and represent extreme instability. Your building analogy this morning is close but I think of a building swaying from side to side influenced by external forces (hurricane winds, earthquakes, etc,). As the sway gets increasingly worse it finally reaches the ‘point of no return’ for an “oh crap” moment, and over it goes. This type of instability can also be the result of overly aggressive tuning adjustments whose effect and initiation can be delayed by process conditions but when started become impossible to stop. This latter cause could easily relate to all of the financial manipulation over what could be decades in length finally catching up to us.
    I hope I’m wrong, but hope is not a plan.

  3. Prechter at Elliott Wave has now reduced his projections down to one scenario: a steep intermediate sell-off followed by a blow-off top, then chaos. I consider the Elliott Wave analysis to be the mathematics of composite investor knee-jerks. The more extreme the sentiment and reversals, the better the Elliott wave analysis seems to work. When the AI traders panic, turn off the algorithms and bail, then the wave analysis will prevail. Prechter’s preferred path has been tracking his projections very closely for a couple of months, so it would be best to pay attention. The preceding were Personal Survival suggestions, not investment advice. Never trade on advice or comments from only one source, especially one posting on a web back channel under an alias.
    If you plan to stay fully invested in equities and play the income-averaging buy-the-dips and hold forever strategy while buying up things you can’t afford on credit, or worse, renting, I would suggest that you get one full size vehicle paid for, and maybe buy a good tent and some camping gear. Nothing is worse than living in a bad tent, continuously looking out for the repo man in the rear view mirror. You could even play Survivor Rest Stop Island with the whole family; test outfitting that preferred cash vehicle with an INCH (I’m Never Coming Home) kit, and camping with the family in the Wally World parking lot over the weekend, just like your kid’s classmates were doing before they moved into the shelter. Renting a small storage unit to store a containerized INCH kit, and keeping it paid up well in advance is a good strategy for avoiding collateral seizure damage in an eviction or foreclosure action. Buying a suburban lot in another county or state you can camp on might be a good investment. A repo lot with trailer hook-ups in the country would be a good acquisition, but only if it is for cash. Family land is usually the cheapest. Get a copy of the “Locusts on the Horizon” by Plan B Writers Alliance, and read it. The equipment selections are dated, but the text is still relevant.
    Of course, if you are already on a cash basis with no recurring debt payments, and your savings are in safe havens, just ignore all this, and concentrate on making sure you can pay your property taxes no matter what else happens. You can also probably indulge in planning for more advanced survival scenarios beyond just dodging the repo man.

    • That’s a fine and healthy view.
      While I don’t disagree with Prechter’s view entirely, it would be predicated on the area circled as “A” on the 1929 replay chart is not in position to blast off, yet. However, when you look at the red trace denoting today’s market position, it’s clear (the way I look at it) that the next-to-last peak has already passed and we are now ready for the final after the pending blow off.
      A lot will be determined by the data flow – and we will know a lot more after we see the Fed H.6 report after the Thursday close and annualize the most recent week of M1 and M2. If strongly up, no pullback and if down, well, maybe…
      As I always caution:
      Melt-up happen from record highs (we’re there)
      Melt-downs happen from major lows – which are miles down from here.

      Table’s open…place your bets?

      • Never trade on information from one source, including Prechter. Listening isn’t for free, but it’s still cheap. And just because I listen to Prechter doesn’t mean I would bet the farm based on his work or anyone else’s solo opinion. I got burned on a trade in ’87 listening to a talking head and never forgot the lesson.

  4. Rutrow George,

    WHO declares Congo EBOLA Outbreak a global emergency..now who woulda thunk that was going happen?

    “A Week To Remember” – Q

    Got precious metals ?

  5. How the pyramid structure works.

    Donald Trump will be arresting tens of thousands of people.

    As they are arrested they spill the Beans for a lower sentence or no sentence ,an the ones that are on the higher-ups structure of the pyramid go through the same procedure ,each level does that and when you get to the top of the pyramid,
    That person or group of persons no longer exist, they have ran their course an left their damage for their ancestors to correct or reckon with and change.

    So the power structure really hasn’t changed ,
    all the pedophilia hasn’t changed,
    all the drug traffic hasn’t changed and the secret Technologies haven’t changed,, but this is where big conflict comes into existence we have China, Russia and the US .

    we are all intermingled into outer space programs that does not allow it’s General populations to know of those programs and all of the free energy……
    So the future will be changed only slightly and on a need-to-know basis ,if you don’t ask you will not receive.

    Going back to the dream state, the intent that’s what matters but mostly what matters especially when you ask a question of Google or of your fellow human being is the stamen,,,,,,,,, which do you choose is your ,mind and or their reality.

    May all beings be lovingly fulfilled,
    And remember everyone has blemishes in their past.

    The future will have regiments to make everything more uniform and freedom will exist according to the regiment area that you live in.

    My goal is to Drudge forward. lol

    • Well, except the reference there to HHGTtG suggests 42 is the answer to everything.
      As every good crypto-decipherer knows, the correct calculation is 52, not 42.
      Subtle, but the wrong answer, 42 because no one checks anyone’s work before sticking it into their brains.

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