Recovery at Hand??? Or, Pause in the Decline?

We have the futures looking up this morning. But, let’s pose the really important question: Has the global turmoil, competitive currency devaluations, and such all passed us by? OR is the alternative explanation – this is a pause – a more likely explaination?

Obviously, my vote would be for the latter for a couple of reasons, though solid they are:

Japan pulled up a bit from the 16,000 level of the Nikkei, which has some psychological impact.

Hong Kong was up overnight as well.

Psychology is in play in Europe, as well: The German market is back over the 10,000 level and again, psychology is in play.

The key thing to remember and which we pioneered in our Global Aggregate Index, is that all markets worldwide are tied together by hooks and crooks these days. As goes the world, so too goes the USA to some extent.

Of sure, we will get some benefit from a “flight to safety” rally now and then, but for the most part, if the global picture is up half a percent, then the US will likely be around that area in short order. Or, if there’s a big decline (like last week’s roughly 1,200 points off our Global Index) then there should be a break in the party now and then, but the main trend is (until broken) a slip and slide to the downside.

Now, as to this morning’s position?

The Dow futures were up about 60…and there’s little until a wholesale trade number later on.

The Long Wave in economics is still likely building to a finale around 2017 to 2018 – and who knows…maybe 2020 with enough paper throwing.

But the fact is that what cost 4-cents in 1913 when the idea of slowly hollowing out the US Dollar started, now costs a buck…and that’s an after-tax buck, which makes the comparison even worse.

When a nation’s money begins to steamroll in declining value, people move money into tangible goods. For clear examples see the Weimar Republic of 1920s Germany, or here more recently, the runaway inflation of Zimbabwe (where I am a trillionaire, by the way). The metals are not crashing because at some level, people know this, but its hard to articulate and besides: No one likes to talk about sinking when you’re still in the deck chair on the Lido Deck of the Titanic.

Statistically: Hillary

If I was trying to influence your thinking on the suitability of Hillary Clinton to hold high (or any other) office, I would suggested you Google [Clinton + body count] and get some education.

Or, if you’re a good little job-bot, don’t. Just do as programmed, which is what robots do.

Still, we can help but note the big headlines out today: Emails From Hillary Clinton’s IT Director at State Department Appear to Be Missing.”

Just for the sake of this morning’s statistics class, and in the interest of fairness, we recommend Googling {trump + body count} for comparison’s sake.

As we read in the book of ARIMA-12, when the data is this far apart, statistics may be telling us something.

Of course, whether there are any literate Americans left becomes the next problem, and with the Odiocy of stories like “Loretta Lynch Owned the North Carolina Bathroom Bill” we can be near certain any rational hold-outs will be neutralized by election day…

Try as we do to market America as the Land of the Brave and Home of the Free, we are little of either, anymore.

But at least we have the good sense not to market the country as the “Land of the really smart people.”

Fierce is not a word generally applied to sheep.

Then There’s Social

Which gets us to recommending you look into the charges that Social Media is biased.

Headline in the NY Times read “Conservatives Accuse Facebook of Political Bias.”

One would expect book-length discussion of this on right wing radio, shortly.

Still, there may be something to it: How many articles about the Judicial Watch Clinton disclosure efforts have been spiked?

On the other hand, the number of stories like Democrats see Clinton and Warren as dream team seems boundless.

Just for the hell of it, one of these morning’s I will publish a morning column devoid of politics and crime.

Then you’ll see how little actual news there is in the world..and how the number of available news minutes, pixels and streams vastly outstrips available (real) content.

Still, even that wouldn’t help. Someone or other is bound to launch a Kardashian Channel which would be pimped out on social, become the viral whatever, see a stunning IPO and I will be left in shock and awe of business models once again.

Meanwhile, NPS reassures us Demographics And History Tilt The Map In Clinton’s Favor Over Trump.

So while Lynch goes after North Carolina instead of Hillary, the quiet thumb is deftly placed on the scales.

Watch for the Back-Up Distraction

Not on the distro list, again?

“US destroyer sails near disputed Chinese island.”

I’m pretty sure the competent survivors of our recent high-end military purges have a pretty good idea of how close to the Chinese islands an American ship can go before an international altercation begins.

Still, it could be lopsided because when (not so much an if) we really go toe-to-toe with China, all we need to do is impound the Chinese property purchased in the US. Game and mate.

Or, at least until the first missiles launch…

Speaking of Missile Launches

Our oak leaf cluster fellow (warhammer) has been looking at another “tuneable distraction” with some concern:

“George,

Disturbing if not unexpected news that the Iranian Islamic Republic can theoretically wipe Israel off the map:

http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-claims-to-successfully-test-missile-that-can-reach-israel/

Why only theoretically? 

1) Israel has a few kick-ass ballistic missile defense systems, chief among them their own Iron Dome all-weather defense system and newly demonstrated ‘David’s Sling, which can deal with salvos of incoming missile. These are augmented by several American built Patriot missile defense systems made famous during the Gulf Wars

2) To achieve the purported 8 meter accuracy (26 feet) of their new missiles, the Iranian must rely upon GPS for guidance.  The Israeli’s can monitor Iranian missile site activity and, when things get dicey, the IDF can activate various GPS jammers (UAV, satellite, ground systems/vehicles, etc.) to degrade the advertised pin-point Iranian accuracy

3) My bet is that before the Iranians could push the launch button, the Mossad would hand Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s ass to him in a sandwich bag.

Iran has no surprises that Israel cannot counter in spades.  And once Iran points and shoots a missile at the Jewish state, all Israel’s cards will be on the table.  Recall Israel reportedly has somewhere between 80 and 400 nuclear warheads.  The IDF keeps at least two diesel-electric subs carrying nuclear payloads deployed at all times.  Do those stealthy subs have nukes?  Safe bet is that if they don’t, sub tenders can deliver the goods lickity split.  My bet is that IDF fighter/bombers and missiles are also loaded for Golden Eagle (Iran’s national symbol).

So Iran is all bluster for the moment.  But if Russia or Syria join into Iran’s games, buckle up.

Cheers,”

There is another exciting game one can play with this data, if you happen to keep Microsoft Streets and Trips loaded for news analytics: Draw the circle from Tehran to the farthest corners of Israel and see what else is in the circle and, oh, Sunni or American-supported.

Even the home version of this game comes with welding goggles.

Not Worth Mentioning Dept.

Like I said – take out the personalities, the politics, and the tuneable distractions and what you have left today are stories like “Lindsay Lohan Actually Looks Normal and Happy and It’s Freaking Us Out.”

The Death of Common Sense Compensation

Still, before we close for the morning, I did want to point out a pretty good CNBC article under the headline “Hedge Funds Faced Choppy Waters in 2015, but Chiefs Cashed In.”

As you know, I have over the past half-century designed a lot of compensation plans for different sales organizations.

And I’d like to suggest that HR weenies and Boards commit to something innovative when comes to executive compensation.

How about paying this highway robbers just three percent of the return to shareholders and investors. Naturally, the numbers would need to be massaged more, but every year we see stories about how much CEO’s make but when comes down to it, their comp is sometimes (often?) more than the people who put real money at risk.

If a company made a million bucks then it’s a $30,000 bonus. If the company made $100 million, then it would be a $3 mil bonus.

I’d also take accounting moves off the table, as well. Anyone can sell off a division and fatten a bottom line. Or, a 10% bonus during the first 4 years of a new product from inception through research through launch and 2 years of retail.

That’s something to think about – make those phat cats who are up in the one percent get off their asses and do some innovating and selling.

Oh, wait…they are too fat and lazy to do that. Why bother when you can just offshore manufacturing and make a pile that way?

Only some of the problems of American can be laid at the feet of the Obama-Ryan party and the lobbyistas who pull the strings.

The rest is due to Boards and comp committees that are not doing their part to make America great.

The HR weenies are responsible for our demise, as well.

OK, a handful of Tums, a mighty yell, and a High Goes Silver! Away!