Rally On! Ure’s Discontinuity

by

Breaking:  Durable Orders Crumble

From the press release:

“New orders for manufactured durable goods in November decreased $5.0 billion or 2.0 percent to $242.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.  This decrease, down two of the last three months, followed a 0.2 percent October increase.  Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged.  Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.8 percent.  Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, led the decrease, $4.9 billion or 5.9 percent to $79.2 billion. .”

Are we to see this as evidence of our long-predicted Consumer Super-Saturation model?

Seriously?  Does this sound like a hot economy?

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in November, up sixteen of the last seventeen months, increased $1.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $434.0 billion.  This followed a 0.4 percent October increase.  Transportation equipment, also up sixteen of the last seventeen months, drove the increase, $1.8 billion or 1.2 percent to $149.3 billion.   Capital Goods Nondefense new orders for capital goods in November decreased $1.3 billion or 1.8 percent to $71.3 billion.  Shipments decreased $0.7 billion or 0.9 percent to $74.4 billion.

We can’t help but notice the lack of (sane) reaction with the futures up nearly 60 after the number.  (Go figure…a lil too much egg-nog, maybe?)

Markets Hope for Higher, Though

We couldn’t help but notice that early this morning, the signs were (not surprisingly) pointing to a continuation of the rally.  The problem in our work (*over on the  Peoplenomics.com side of the house) is that there is one possible match-up with the 1929 blow-off top that hints the market only has another 3-5% of upside left.

When we get there, we will have equaled 1929.  And it’s no surprise, really.

In both periods, we were in major technological overlaps.  The two “hot tech” segments that were competing for (regular) jobs were the auto industrial and related build-out of fledgling federal highways.  Plus there was all that “radio” manufacturing.  All hugely prosperous and demanding talented people.

Today, the technical “cartography” seems eerily the same – but different!  Instead of a build out of highways, we are building out the Internet’s next evolution, 5G.  Then there’s the whole matter of A.I. and robotics coming right along.  So much so, that when I get done with my silly “time machine” experiments this spring, Ure’s truly will be trying his hand at some simple robotics programming.

The problem we see ahead, though, is that “Boom Times” never last.  And we are looking down the barrel of what I’ve described as Ure’s Discontinuity.

Let me put it into lay terms and I think you’ll grasp it (depending on your coffee loading, so far…)

We know some baseline things:

  • Bond rates have been falling (on average) since 1982.  That’s when some of the family high-yield bonds in the failed WPPS nuclear plants were called:  They were paying north of 13%!
  • At the same time, tech exploded.  I mean think back to the days when Microsoft was still compiling code on the top floor of “the heating plant” on the north side of 520 in Seattle.  Baby steps.  That’s when I was doing my experiment in sending digital messages over radio on the main channel of KMPS AM-FM as a Sunday morning “public affairs” program.
  • Since that time, we have gone to extremes.  Microsoft and the other tech companies are actually paying dividends.  No more of the “betting on the come” for tech.  It became an equation.
  • At the same time, bond prices fell because its a competitive world out there.  With high quality techs paying an actual dividend, would you put your money in a bond, where the yields have been planned to be lower for longer?  Or, would you take what was behind the other curtain?  Namely that with dividend paying stocks, you might get a double-whammy on the upside. Specifically, the dividend yield doesn’t have to be greater than bonds to make stocks more attractive.  It’s the prospect of the capital gain on the share price in addition to the dividends that pays off.

So what’s this Ure’s Discontinuity stuff, then?

Not only have we gone from Bonds having high yields (and low prices) to low yields and high prices, but the quality of tech has been evolving from speculation to dividend payer, so we can make out a logical limit of extremes.

The zero boundary is where everything blows up.  That’s why the Federal Reserve has (and in my view wisely) made a whole pile of references to the “effective lower bound.”  They know, as do we, that the lower bound isn’t zero.  It’s where the Discontinuity becomes undeniable.

At the boundary, bonds pay nothing, so their value goes to zero.  And stocks, even if a hint of profitability (or another damn fool to buy ’em) goes to infinity.

Wake up and look around:  We’re there!

If the bond yields come down much more, the valuation of the bonds can’t really go up.  In other words, say bond yie;lds drop to 1%.  That means to make a decent retirement income, of say $50,000 a year to augment Social Security, investors heading into their Golden Years would need to have amassed $5-million in bonds.  (Since 1% of $5-mil is how much?)

On the other hand, we are in a stock market setting where our Aggregate Index (not counting this morning’s futures pricing) is up how much from the “slaughter of the elves” last Christmas?

Let’s look it up:  Friday of last week, our Aggregate closed at 27,287.  (I’ll skip the fractions, too early for them.)  During the Christmas eve slaughter?  19,841.  Pencils out to a one-year gain of 37.528%

Contrary to what presidential politics polling might offer, behavior economics suggests that if you need $5-million to make $50,000 in bonds versus $134-thousand if you could play stocks to perfection, which one would you have jumped into?  (Hint:  This economics stuff ain’t that complicated, is it?  People will do what feathers their own nests best…)

Of course, no one has played it perfectly.  My own predilection is being perpetually too early on market moves.  It’s cost me dearly.  I expect everyone will see things when I do, which is not the case.

That said, however, there MAY be some significant downside to the market ahead in January for a simple technical reason.  Let’s say you bought stocks in January of this year.  The one-year capital gains holding period which will allow those gains to be minimally-taxed ain’t that far ahead.

For now, the Fed is making-up-money (MUM) in support of “lower for longer”  (L4L) which is fine.  Except (and we eye the move in gold this morning suspiciously) when inflation comes, it ought to come roaring in like a lion.

We can already see the mechanics of what happens when we pull back from the Discontinuity – which we can define as the height in the stock bubble where as bond rates collapse, the price of stocks move quickly towards infinity.

That’s because on a competitive basis, stocks have kicked bond’s ass all over the street this year.

The Fed is in no hurry to raise rates.  For one, they need markets to survive because in large part, the screaming U.S. markets are keeping the European Union from collapse because they’re already in negative rates.

The main reason the Fed doesn’t want rates to rise (yet) is that when they do, the interest on the National Debt will soar quickly higher.  And that could spell economic doom for America.  Or, at least a Second Depression which will be worse that the first one for reasons that should be obvious.

Think back on everything you read about the Great Depression:  Hobo markings of which houses would share food (gang signs will work thing time around) and masses “riding the rails” looking for work.  This time, it’ll be hitch-hikers everywhere.  Instead of people losing their farms, there will be huge collapses of corporations because when we leave the “Discontinuity Zone”  (which we’ll have to, in order to feed starving and displaced people) government will have to spend on top of record Federal Debt and that’s not a happy ending.

Or, is it?

We’ve long-expected the U.S. economy would enter a time of “terrible workout” when our failure to pay down the public debt and actually increase the value of our money, would “come home to roost.”  Don’t look now, that that’s the way ahead.

This is not to say “The higher the markets go, the worse things will be on the backside of the Bubble.”  That’s premature.  What we know is that government itself is in good measure responsible for the continuing reappearance of long wave economic cycles.

It all comes down to human nature.  Quest for power.  Oh, and Politics above all.

At a time when we could have been building new opportunities (infrastructure) and working even more aggressively toward on-shoring, what have we done?  Record spending and political pig-headedness that is astounding.

Why, it’s like the “two hands of government” not only can’t work in a coordinated manner, but they seem fully spastic and even attached to different bodies.

Example:  You saw this weekend that the State Department has updated its “Where NOT to travel in Mexico Map,” right? Notice on the map how the orange area are along whose border that idiots in the House can seem to figure-out how to close?

As you can see, the State Department can read data and produce maps.  Idiots, in Washington it turns out, not only don’t read legislation they vote on, but now we come to understand they must not read the papers or understand maps, either.  Good God, what a mess, huh?

The good news in all this?  Rotsa-ruck, buddy…

  • First is we are still in the discontinuity.  That is, prices are still going up in stocks and may for another week, or longer.  It’s just a matter of when the buyers last year at market lows decide to bail out and lock in their gains.
  • When the selling starts, we have a problem because there is so little worth buying.  Housing has fully recovered from the 2009 low, and the only thing driving now will be last-minute buyers who see housing prices as heading up again when interest rates begin to go up.
  • That could mean a good year for things like precious metals, and digital tulips (bitcoins this morning is up to $7,550).  HNyper-inflation may hurt the country, but gold-bugs will love it.

Meantime, we will just keep whistling in the graveyard and glance nervously at the railroad tracks.

There’s a train wreck coming and we can hear the whistle and see the headlight, already.

News Actually

Aw, do we have to?

Yup – ‘fraid so.  We is data driven peeps, is we not?  Roll with me:

As we read how Police search for four people in deadly Nashville stabbing, we have to wonder where the knife registration action groups are?  And this will ripple into sports because the Brother of 49ers quarterback killed in double murder.

In lieu of STEM-based curriculum? Russian Special Forces Show Fifth-Graders How to Beat Crowds.

Trade war thawing will lead to the rising market, we figure,. so keep stories likme China To Cut Tariffs On Pork, Tech And Many Global Imports It Desperately Needs in mind if you’re eyeing the short side.  Meantime, we can’t figure why Washington isn’t more with Trump than against him since U.S. Tariffs Are Near Global—and Historic—Lows.  Except, oh, wait!  Didn’t we just figure out the folks in DeeCee can’t read?

“Everyone But US” department: Millionaires support a wealth tax — as long as they aren’t getting taxed: CNBC survey.

Holiday travel plans? It could be a white or wet Christmas depending on where you live in the US, sayeth  CNN…

Remakes failing? Cats: Lame opening for Cats at US and UK box office.  Also, the new Star Wars getting raves from our family members who’ve seen it, but panned by critics.  For an example read “‘Star Wars’ Leads Box Office With Disappointing $175.5 Million. As always, our advice is to ignore the critics and follow your heart.  The critics are usually wrong…we wouldn’t give you a plug nickel for a dozen of ’em.

Longish column, today, but no appologies.  No one’s going to get jack done today, anyway..

Lower Close?

NY Fed’s Repo Dep[ot popped with $49.35-billon this morning.  Up from last Monday’s $37.7, but can’t anyone else figure the durables aren’t good?

Moron the morrow,  then.

Write when you get rich,

george@ure.net

47 thoughts on “Rally On! Ure’s Discontinuity”

  1. You call it “discontinuity,” and I agree SOMEthing is coming. But I think of it as an Energetic Evolution, or even a mild Revolution. Something Disruptive.

    Disruption is sometimes good, and often Quite Profitable. (And, to be sure, sometimes extremely bad.)

    Steve Jobs once referred to waiting around for the Next Insanely Great thing to come down the pike. Disruptive things — often technological, but sometimes societal or discontinuous in other ways — not always tech — Change Things.

    If one can sense the tide that will soon lift (or sink) all the boats, one can take appropriate action to be on the right side of the flow.

    It’s “funny,” isn’t it, that Disruptions always seem to come along a Just About The Right Time to extend things, and create all-new and usually unexpected conditions?

    There was a time when hardly anybody had FAX machines. Shortly EVERYBODY had to have a FAX machine. (…and now, they’re all but gone — replaced.)

    There was a time when if you asked somebody for their email address, and they didn’t have one (yet), they’d be all embarrassed and vamp about how they were getting one Real Soon Now, and all would be well. Now, my grandma emails and VidCons and has a constant companion device that is damn near to being a Tricorder.

    Zero-point energy? Anti-grav? “Real” fusion that actually works — and isn’t still 30 years away from routine commercial application? My goddam Flying Car? 9G? True androids? Some currently unimaginable societal change?

    There’s a LOT of space for the Next Insanely Great Thing to come along.

    Not to worry: it’ll be along soon. Just In Time, maybe. Seems to work that way for some reason.

    Maybe, there will be two. Or even three. They might form a Convergence.

    73

    • Disruptive: AI, blockchain, Robotics, Internet of Things, & 5g are a 37 Trillion dollar upcoming bonanza for the stock market. It is just starting to be tapped. With 5g powering this revolution, because without 5g it isn’t possible, it has staggering disruptive potential. And they all need massive amounts of semiconductor chips.

      • 2020 continue of stock boom:
        1. Housing starts up.
        2. Building permits at an all time high.
        3. Jolts data shows strength in the labor market.
        4. Payrolls up.
        5. The Millenials now have cash to buy new homes.
        6. Micro Robotics to revolutionalize Health Care.

        Warning: Nothing goes up in a straight line. For PN subscribers, keep your eye on URE INDEX 30,666.

  2. Morning George,

    It looks like good weather for Christmas this week for us up on the northeast end of I-30. Which is good for all the obvious reasons, but also because I’ve been waiting for a huge pile of leaves to get dry enough to burn and not just produce enough smoke to cover all the beaches at Normandy. It’s the little things, you know?

    I like the concept of the discontinuity, but allow me to suggest an alternate term:

    ‘Angle of Repose’

    Defined as: The angle of repose, or critical angle of repose, of a granular material is the steepest angle of descent or dip relative to the horizontal plane to which a material can be piled without slumping. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angle_of_repose

    The angle of repose can be manipulated by engineering controls. Think propping up a sand pile or stabilizing a slope. It works great until the engineering control fails all the material moves back to it’s natural angle of repose. Sometimes with catastrophic results.

    In the case of the financial system of the world it’s a lot bigger than a pile of sand. All of this got me to thinking this morning of the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. The volcano didn’t explode or erupt in the normal ways that we’re accustomed to thinking of. The volcano had begun to swell or expand because of the internal pressure of the system increasing the angles of the slopes. Once the the angle of repose had been exceeded, the north flank of the mountain failed in what became the longest run out landslide ever recorded. That was like popping the lid off of a pressure cooker. The rest is history and, perhaps, our future.

  3. “(which we’ll have to, in order to feed starving and displaced people) government will have to spend on top of record Federal Debt and that’s not a happy ending.”

    Historically… WAR.. was the way to spend…

    https://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images;_ylt=AwrE1x6o0QBeh0YA2hRXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTE0cjV1cmI5BGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjkwNTFfMQRzZWMDcGl2cw–?p=women+in+the+wartime+work+ethics+efforts&fr2=piv-web&fr=tightropetb#id=25&iurl=https%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2Fc%2Fc6%2FVictory_job_%2528AWM_ARTV00332%2529.jpg&action=click

    https://66.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_memp4juFVu1qfkgweo1_400.jpg

    http://worldwar2headquarters.com/images/posters/British/factories.jpg

    think about it.. what have we done……
    we outsourced it…

  4. The collapse will probably be in 2021,just as it was in 1921.This time it’s likely to be different.

    They’ll probably get Trump in 2023 solely due to the anger and despair on the then conditions.This will keep the 50 year GOP Presidential disaster cycle going:Grant in 1873,Harding in 1923,Nixon in 1973.

    • Trump has my vote Tom….. but I am still amazed as to why he would want to go through this mess all over again.. or put his family through it..I truly feel sorry for his wife and kids.. I am sure his wanting to go through it again is that they woke up the old street fighter in him.. the will to get the job done no matter what..
      If they had worked with him even a little bit.. I doubt he would be running again.. but the fact that they started the hate campaign right after that debate..
      .
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slLCjLcgqbc

      the PTB have successfully demonstrated the power they have and their willingness to weild it no matter what the people want or to do what is right for the people….

  5. Correct me if I am wrong, but were not there more millionairs created per capita during the Great Depression than at any time in US history? Seams to me you just have keep your whit’s about you and your eyes open

    • yup..this year it costs 35 million in zimbabwe for a one pound loaf of bread… a sandwhich costs what two and a half million dollars for a grilled cheese… and a cup of coffee is only six grand give or take..that was last years estimated value of a cup of brewed jo…

      https://www.jasonhartman.com/price-of-a-loaf-of-bread-jumps-to-35-million-dollars/

      in germany it was cheaper to burn money than buy wood.. and people with gold and silver were carrying bushel baskets to trade for a basket of vegitables.. those that didn’t need anything were able to hold off and ended up financially stable.. I think it would be a lot like my TWA stocks.. I had a few of them to.. and one share my father had made me buy when I was a kid.. it had grown to the value of fifteen grand.. the wife said.. hey we should cash that one in.. I said no that was the best five dollar bill I ever spent.. they went bellie up.. sold out.. and the value went to 1500.00 it was still the best five dollar bill I ever invested but not to the fifteen grand.. the twa stock.. there again.. I assumed that the company that bought them out would absorb the stocks and redistribute.. OOOPS.. not today.. It cost me forty dollars to get rid of it..
      NOW the dollar.. if the dollar is able to survive this atrocity that is going on with devaluation.. and the world keeps it.. then maybe.. but really can you see that happening.. the currency isn’t guaranteed by anything.. and china and russia are trying real hard to be the currency of choice.. of course china is dependent on us for their industrialization.. so who knows.. maybe yes maybe no..

  6. The Fed. won’t raise any rates for they have stated they won’t raise any in 2020, in fact if anything they will go negative and dump more money into the system, to give the false impression that everything is peachy in the election year.

    I was reading where a man who stole an LGBTQ flag and burned it in Kansas was given 16 years in prison,talk about a sentence fitting the crime this is a dandy.

    Also was reading where Trump wants a judge to reverse the verdict on Bayer,I suppose the next thing he will want is for the victims to pay Bayer, for the privilege of getting cancer from the product Bayer sold,it seems nothing is scared anymore well except for the profit that is..

    Also reading another article the writer that said we have a rotting carcass for a government, with the maggots feeding on it,the democrat’s are rooting for the maggots the republicans are rooting for the carcass..

    Well I guess that’s enough for a Monday morning, keep your powder dry,your survivile kit up to date and make sure you have plenty of seeds stash away, for 2020 will be a dandy.And a very Merry Christmas to One And All.!!!

  7. “so keep stories likme China To Cut Tariffs On Pork, Tech And Many Global Imports It Desperately Needs ”

    old man at the back of the classroom waving his hand frantically.. I know I know…

    “Chinese companies, at the urging of their government, have launched a global buying spree, a new phase in their unprecedented economic experiment. And they’re targeting a resource that climate scientists, economists, the U.S. government, even Wall Street, all forecast will become dangerously scarce in the coming decades: food.”

    Lowdermilk wrote a great report called the hundred dead cities.. that explained about the rising population and the city growth along with desertification of crop lands.. china paid attention.. unfortunately we didn’t other wise we would be seeing more green city growth than concrete and asphalt..
    utilize solar and wind where we can and rebuild infrastructure.. the new water barons.. and those buying up the food.. who will control everyone else…
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-new-water-barons-wall-street-mega-banks-are-buying-up-the-worlds-water/5383274

    LOL they own the pork processing plants.. and a good chunk of the grain exporters as well… LOL

    to stall or stop the imports is sort of like smacking your own finger with the hammer on purpose.. LOL

    • This is old news that continues to be recirculated as new to juice algos – an Ag guy from the Dept of Agriculture that works for Lightheiser is on record – it is mathematically impossible for the Chinese to buy what we are claiming – the deal is still not signed and a pledge to perform is not the same as a guarantee to perform….

      • Of course they won’t simply another lie to go along with all the other lies being spewed out of Washington,after all its in fly over country where the farmers reside ,in the best year the Chinese spent only $25 billion on food imports from this country, and now that they have $65 billion in signed contracts with Brazil and Argentina there is no possible way that the food imports from the U.S. will ever hit $25 billion again. I would guess $15 billion will be the best they will ever see which is not going to help Trump in the to close to call states that he carried the first time around.!!.!!!

  8. MERRY CHRISTMAS GEORGE!! MY XMAS PRESENT TO YOU (AND YOUR READERS)
    [AND IF NOT HAPPY, I WILL RETURN IT TO THE STORE! LOL!]

    I KNOW THAT YOUVE ALWAYS HAD AN INTEREST IN TIMELINES, IE EVENTS IN NATURE WHICH MAY TAKE A DIFFERENT PATH DEPENDING ON VARIABLES…ANYWAY

    WATCH THIS VID JUST PRODUCED ON PROJECT LOOKING GLASS. I KNOW YOU WILL ENOY IT AS I DID. LONG BUT WELL WORTH THE TIME

    HERE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uq_XBsBOanc&feature=youtu.be

  9. 7 billion people making the future. Mere Humans cannot predict who,what,when where why or how. Be a boy or girl scout,Be prepared as best you can.
    The dismal science, Economics, has 7 billion variables in just humans,also trading algorythms running a lot of trade desks,analysts/programers tweeking the system. Multiple folks who know little messing in from their point of view.. Trillions coming to USA from Europe and Asia. we are still the best place to conserve your money IF invested properly.
    All these things skew the cycles extend or shorten them based on human decisions..
    I have faith that I and my family will do Whatever it takes to survive and Prosper. As will many.
    I have faith the USA will be at the TOP of the Heap, doing what it takes to survive and prosper.
    Read Peter Zeihan. too.

  10. George,
    Perhaps if we were to address the root cause of our hemisphere’s mass migration/asylum problems (i.e., violence from drug wars spurred by the US’s drug policy causing monopoly profits), then we might be able to cut down on the illegal immigration. Perhaps Wikipedia the Portugal model.
    As a wise man once said: Everything’s a business model.
    Merry Christmas to all. Best, Mike.

  11. George

    ” Ure’s truly will be trying his hand at some simple robotics programming.”

    1. Are you thinking about something that’s usually bolted to the factory floor?

    Or

    2. Something that moves around on it’s own and is dangerous to humans?

    For number 1 that’s usually handled by a Programmable Logic Controller. Think industrial computer. They can be a simple $100 unit with a minimum of input / output points or something in the $50,000 range that can do an amazing amount of control. There programmed in what is called Ladder Logic. Easy to learn but very powerful for it’s area of control.

    For number 2 you will want something like a Rabbit 3000 micro controller. Lots of digital I/O points and serial ports. Programmed using a flavor of the C language. Then there’s the PIC and Arduino micro controllers which have there own programming language. They seem to attract the newbies to the micro controller arena.

    When you decide what way to go let me know if you need more leads on hardware. I think you might have my resume so you know my capabilities. I have 30 years doing automation so I just might know something!

    Merry Christmas !

    • Way cool – somehow, a “learn arduino” with an UNO with usb hookup was only 15 bucks on amazon

      ELEGOO UNO Project Basic Starter Kit with Tutorial and UNO R3 Compatible with Arduino IDE

      The how to program books on the mini disk with pdf’s is worth the $15-0bucks…

      • To quote Obi-Wan Kenobi:

        “You’ve taken your first step into a larger world.”

        I was going to suggest you start with the Arduino micro controller for it’s lower cost and available add on’s.

        I prefer the Rabbit micro controllers, ( a Z80 variant), as they are quite powerful, but you probably don’t want to spend the time learning the C programming language.
        I had that from my college days.

        There are probably tons of programs already written and available for free or low cost on the web. Lots of circuit designs too. Maybe even user groups on Yahoo. They have one for the Rabbit so give it a look.

        Enjoy the freedom this technology will give you!

  12. When Facebook & Twitter pay dividends it might signal a growth downturn in Tech. Both have cash & free cash flow to pay a dividend, but are reinvesting in the company to remain the leaders instead of paying dividends. Why fight this rally?

  13. I believe San Francisco was named after the Franciscan Monks & should read up on St. Francis & repent for Christmas, providing they still believe. Why does Nancy Pelosi sound like she had a few to many shots of Russian vodka?

    • NC,
      You can ignorantly criticize us all you want…but you can’t escape the reality that 30% of our countries robust economy is because of San Francisco and the surrounding Bay Area. If the Bay Area were a country, we would be ranked 17th in the world. With a GDP of nearly a trillion dollars. We produce the tech you use to read this column, the food you eat, the jeans you wear, the streaming of music you listen to, the shows you watch, the bio-tech that keeps you alive, the phone you talk on, the chips that run everything in your life, the data and software that drives the economy. Nothing to repent here. We all should be praised and given thanks for our contributions. Your Welcome.

  14. For anyone looking for a good read – on twitter Tuomas Malinen has written a nice piece on Crisis Preparation. Basics, The Eurozone, The US and the Preppers Bunker. It of course is his opinion your mileage may vary……

  15. disgrace .. deflationary depression and now the knobs are sprukeing a gold rally .. evil siths .. all the gold blokes are evil siths as well .. short short and more short.. suppose next we will here the commercials don’t matter either .. probably give the dump the congressional medal of honour next

    • Len, while we simple followers of the honest path WILL eventually be right, I’d caution you to spend a lot of time in cash and don’t be in a hurry to short until the decline begins.
      Even old Al Greedspan had it right in “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” or words to that effect.
      Bide your time, wait for the turn. Shorting early will earn you thousands in losses.
      Ask me how I learned?

      • George your the only guy I listen 2 in 25 years but HOW am I supposed to load up on gold in a fake gold market .. I cant get on with people like moriarty or kern anymore because they spruke and the cots are massive short and 10 other reasons of fake .. but always start at the commercials .. mate to me shorts are safe .. just close 1 when beer or food is required .. I know George I know .. but !!! the longer im wrong the righter ill be .. I am THE only person on this side of the boat .. anyway got a new bloke looking after my joint a guy called avi .. says he knows you . ill try and find his last name..your name come up because i told avi that you are the only straight fair dinkum bloke on the stock or site internet circus . cheers

  16. 9 in a row on the tables at wall and broad .. never ever seen such evil in everything .. no economics , no sanity , no morals

  17. “In lieu of STEM-based curriculum? Russian Special Forces Show Fifth-Graders How to Beat Crowds.”

    Judging by current trends, this might simply be a practical STEM extension. Ya can’t rock da equations if yer gettin’ beat on by masked fascists.
    ___________________

    “Everyone But US” department: Millionaires support a wealth tax — as long as they aren’t getting taxed: CNBC survey.

    A “wealth tax” is the ability of a government to re-tax that which has already been taxed. It is an incredibly dangerous precedent to even contemplate, let alone enact. As much as I’d like to see some of the more tightwad-ish members of the Forbes List “share the wealth,” I can think of no legal or moral justification for taking something of theirs for which they’ve already paid both the price and the tax. (Bear in-mind, although their politics suck, Gates and Buffett have donated over $100bln to charitable causes. I doubt they would be nearly so charitable if the tax collector were forcing them to loose their purse strings.)

    Pokey-hauntus’ plan is to sock an arbitrary “wealthy class” with a 2% tax on their assets. IIRC Congress and J.P. Morgan (the man) sold an “income tax” to the American People on the basis it would be 2%, applied only to the “wealthy class,” and be temporary. They failed to mention the “temporary” part was the 2%, not the tax itself…

    • For nominally “bright people” we should all be seriously pissed at the concept of “double taxation” – which is really what inflation does, as well.
      You buy a car for $1,000 and sell it (you bought a collectible, for example) and sell it for $2,000. In the government’s eyes, that’s a taxable event and a $1,000 gain.
      On the other hand, if your holding period was long enough, there would be no gain in reality.
      The government’s priviledge is to simply “make up” values. In many ways, it’s like Bitcoin with guns and agents and courts to do its bidding.
      Notwithstanding, if you denominated the car in calories (or rolls of toilet paper purchased) even though you have no consumable gain and the “gain’s a fraud” they do want their due.
      To have a piss-poor lawyerly type, as Warren pretends, who doesn’t understand double-taxation is a way of killing investment, astounds me.
      But, as we’ve always held, everything’s a business model AND You can’t fix stupid.

      • https://www.exclassics.com/misers/misers.pdf

        https://scholarworks.gvsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1014&context=orpc

        “Equal Taxes in the United States and Canada
        For individuals whose adjusted gross incomes range between $8,375 and $34,000, there is no tax difference between taxes in the United States and Canada. Both countries charge 15 percent.

        Higher Taxes in the United States
        For individuals whose adjusted gross incomes range between $34,000 and $81,940, taxes are higher in the United States. Depending on where in that range your income falls, your taxes could be 3 to 10 percent higher in the U.S. Taxes in the U.S. are 2 percent higher than in Canada for individuals whose adjusted gross income falls between $82,400 and $127,021. Taxes are 4 percent higher in the U.S. for individuals whose adjusted gross incomes range between $171,850 and $373,650. Taxes are 6 percent higher in the U.S. for individuals whose adjusted gross incomes are above $373,650.”
        https://classroom.synonym.com/canadian-taxes-vs-us-taxes-12081247.html

        right now.. we lay the tax burden of running our country on those making the middle income group…. what isn’t calculated there is the savings by the classes in medical expenses.. and how taxes are collected.. make a buck pay a tax.. and the tax deductions.. just think about it.. how much tax there truly is..

        https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/this-is-the-real-reason-most-americans-file-for-bankruptcy.html

        think about the different taxes.. income tax, state tax,sales tax, property tax, etc etc.. what is our true tax burden in comparison.. why should there be a difference between someone buying diapers or someone that has a capital gain..that has tax deductions to take care of it..

        unless you have more money than john Ewles https://ia800304.us.archive.org/20/items/lifeoflatejohnel00toph/lifeoflatejohnel00toph.pdf
        you aren’t leaving with it.. LOL.. .

      • “But, as we’ve always held, everything’s a business model AND You can’t fix stupid.”

        Your are right on the money there George….

        The way I see it.. it isn’t what we have coming in from taxes that is the problem..
        Our country has been kiting our country on paper..
        We spend way more than what we make.. as a nation we know that we cannot spend a trillion a year in military for someone else.. or five hundred billion to rebuild the countries that we destroyed.Yet we do.. we allow illegals to jump our border then pay for them to live here….
        then neglect our own house and the people that reside here.. we should be putting the money into rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure and supporting the population and their needs here…

      • “You buy a car for $1,000 and sell it (you bought a collectible, for example) and sell it for $2,000. In the government’s eyes, that’s a taxable event and a $1,000 gain.
        On the other hand, if your holding period was long enough, there would be no gain in reality.”

        Now, imagine the IRS (in addition to any tax your State slaps you with) comes in and says: “You have this thousand dollar piece of property. We understand you paid the taxes on the money you used to buy this property, but now, we’re going to tax you for the property itself.” Then they hit you with a $20 tax every year you own the vehicle.

        Oh, and when you sell it for that $2000 they drop a recapture on yerass, because you obviously undervalued it to cheat the taxman… and the recapture will be whatever they say it is, for whatever number of years they deign to screw with your life, plus interest and penalties which can be in the hundreds of thousands of dollars under existing tax code. I shudder to think how severe tax penalties could become under a “tax the wealth” plan.

  18. How does the Ure Discontinuity get resolved without widespread sovereign state defaults on bonds by industrial nations? The negative interest rates are a controlled stealth credit deflation, and are only a stopgap measure to avoid a default. Negative interest rates plus consumer hyperinflation plus confiscation of PM’s yields nowhere to run except cash stuffed in the mattress. And central banks worldwide are now filling their vaults with $100 US bills and PM’s. Which central banks are going to throw in the towel first? Which comes next: PM confiscation or consumer hyperinflation? Do the Fed repo operations give a hint? Is India the new model for the brown shirts?

  19. Ahhhh. The MCHVE’s. So which scenario plays next and what defensive strategies will be in play? The credit market New Year meltdown scenario is looking less viable thanks to the Fed repo fire-hose brigade, at least for the moment. What comes in April?

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