Projecting Markets in Chaos

Yet another week of chaotic markets.  So this morning we’ll give you some ideas on how to noodle your way through figuring out what comes next.

It’s an imperfect process (or we’d all be rich by now) but any improvement over 50-50 seems worth pursuing…

After a few headlines and such…

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George Ure
Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share UrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/

13 thoughts on “Projecting Markets in Chaos”

  1. Stock market still looks like a catholic priest/bishop/cardinal/pope market..its gonna go down on you, and Ure afraid URE about to take another one in the Arse. My opinion Friday afternoon rally can be thought of as a Ure reach-around, nice for a short while…butt URE still going get hammered.
    Cash is losing purchasing power/value every day, why hold it, make it work. SWISS banks make you pay THEM for depositing and holding cash.
    That ever so faint whoosing or humming sound some might be hearing (TAOS HUM) is actually the sound of SCREAMING INFLATION stealthily sucking ALL your purchasing power away until URE left toilet paper, ever try wiping with Currency?Pesos perhaps..
    I most certainly understand “when in doubt, get out”. When in doubt, I like to employ the “Butterfly Spread”. This is a 1-2-1 spread. Buy 1 (Out of the money), Sell 2 (At the money), Buy 1 (In the Money)
    Example using Friday bid & offer close prices..SPY @276.01 – Buy 5 SPY November 273 Puts @$4.67/-$2335, Sell 10 SPY November 276 Puts @5.61/+$5610, Buy 5 SPY 279 Puts @6.96/-$3480. Total cost is $205.00 plus commision, this is a Neutral Position, with Stop orders in place, We could be set up to realize some nice fat profits by unwinding (buy or sell) losing side.
    Better yet invest in Bitcoin/Litecoin and a lil Ripple(XRT), stay one step ahead, and beat the NWO at their own game.

  2. On your Home Run Section..I just ordered 3 bottles of the pill that will make me live forever….or at least freeze it at 61 for me.

    On your third base section, you mentioned Elizabeth Warren as a fraudster. Fair enough…She does not have Native American blood…although even 23andMe said I had 4% Native American…but I digress.

    If you want to be fair and balanced, why isn’t anyone talking about the very detailed and well researched New York times article that shows Trump as a tax evasion guru and the oooops moment when he caught himself in a lie when his $1 million dollar loan from his dad turned into a nearly half billion dollar gift and tax sham? Not that I am an Obama fan, but what if that would have happened to Obama? Talk about Webolution, civil war, out of control right wing media etc. Then, of course their is the Bob Woodward Book that is totally corroborated with recorded interviews.

    Lastly, did I read your charts right? Should I go all cash next week? I helplessly stood my ground during the 1,000 point “crash” last week…I am in all tech stocks, except for one Canadian “Pot” stock which wasn’t affected and is performing well…but overall, it was ugly…I have recovered about 75% on Thursday and Friday’s rebound and may wait for a full recovery till Wednesday…but I have been trading for a long time and something about this business climate is making me nervous.

    That, and the fact that the real estate market in the Bay Area…almost overnight has come to a halt. Inventory has tripled and for the first time in nearly six years…there are more price reductions this month than the past two years combined. Rising interest rates are the biggest cause. The elections are another from what I am hearing from buyers. Nevertheless…a lot of Nervous Nellies out there.

    • Agree completely on Trump and Taxes. He needs to get them released and face whatever storm comes before the next election.
      On the market, we never advise a position except to remember than in uncertain times, cash will out perform a third of the time.
      And YES please keep us updated on the South Bay Real Estate.
      If things continue down after the election, going short some of the techs might be interesting and they could be reducing rather than adding staff….but we shall see. Could be a three week preelection blip.

      • Mark: Interesting report on the Bay Area Real Estate market. Will be interesting to see if the 3rd quarter earnings reports reflect weakness which would send the markets to the downside. Maybe this recent decline is alerting us to lower 3rd quarter earnings or at least a concern by the markets.

      • Trump can’t. AFAIK, he’s been under audit since before the Election, and can’t release anything until the IRS is done with (probably everything. I dunno. As I mentioned earlier, an “audit” is a RFI and the few I’ve been involved in as a preparer, and once as an “auditee,” were simple requests, simply satisfied.) Trump is being audited back almost to the USFL — thousands of companies, hundreds of thousands of deals, tens or hundreds of millions of pages of every kind of form and memo imaginable. I can visualize many hundreds of IRS Agents, laboring until Halley’s return, before this audit is finished…

    • Over the course of his entire life, Trump, the Elder, never had a half-billion in combined worth and credit. I estimate Fred Trump peaked at ~$135mln in total worth, in 1987, but that’s just an educated guess.

      If you actually READ the Times’ article, you’ll see they throw around a bunch of (possibly, or not, related) numbers which would be inclusive, not additive, then they ADD THEM TOGETHER to get a “number” which was “adjusted for inflation” into 2018 dollars, to yield the $413mln number they used. You’d also notice the information upon which the Times based its piece was tax returns that’re not involved in any Trump audit, and on hearsay, from which their conclusions (got that? That means it is not an investigation or news piece, but an opinion piece) were drawn.

      The facts that the numbers were grossly exaggerated, then combined and grossly exaggerated again, and “investigative information” was based primarily on 30+ year old hearsay leads me to seriously doubt the veracity of any person or organization which claims he gave that kind of dough away.

      ‘Course, I’m a grown-up. I’ve read copy once or twice and can recognize a hit-piece by the third sentence. I also don’t need the NYT or any other media outlet to tell me what to think or to spoon-feed me my opinion… YMMV

      • Ray – I think you’d reflexively defend trump no matter the accusation. Sorry Ray you don’t get to dismiss such a well researched and lengthy piece of investigative journalism with a wave of your partisan hand.

      • Good piece Ray. WAVE & his crew dismiss anything that doesn’t favor them. They are intimidators, using words like “dismiss” to mean your opinion is uneducated & not worth consideration. They only do this to discredit, because Ray is correct & WAVE & crew don’t know what to do or say that would be considered rational.

  3. Hmm – Zamboroscope! Kinky!

    The dimensional entities remind me of machine elves. Trickster types – smart, but not always trustworthy…..

    A safe path is probably indicated until the silly season ends.

  4. Black or red on the roulette wheel pays 50%, gamblers. Even then, the house fares better! 2.75% is a sure thing short term! lol

  5. Last week the antifas marched and held up traffic in Portland OR, and even confronted a driver that made national news. The police were told to stand down. The mayor and chief of police allow antifas carte blanche for their anti police activities.

    This weekend the Patriot Prayer group came to Portland to demand Mayor Wheeler be replaced with someone who stands for law and order…what does the police chief and Mayor Wheeler do, they bring out the riot police just in case…. They didnt do that with the antifas…Wheeler has shown hes fine with the antifas because he’s intimidated ever since they set up camp in front of his house nearly 2 years ago and made his family move out of the family home for safety purposes..many people are very disappointed with Mayor Wheeler. He acquiesces to the antifas and homeless activists and makes the tax payers 3rd rate citizens.

    https://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2018/10/patriot_prayer_flash_march_cal.html

  6. Our Dear Mr. Ure,

    Dreadful news from the Desert Kingdom’s stock market to shareholders, isn’t it?

    However, a spark of good tidings in Her Majesty’s realm per the BBC is that the sale of a trio of North Sea gasfields from an EU to a UK entity can now proceed thanks to a sanctions waiver from US regulators. One of the three fields has 50% Iranian ownership.

    I imagine you would approve that the UK buyer is housed in a George Street edifice. Interestingly, public records indicate that their largest shareholder is situated in Delaware with offices in New York City.

    I must confess that Friday was a most trying day at Court with Windsor wind. Prince Andrew, son of the head of The Church of England, failed of course to have the BBC broadcast live the marriage of his Princess to a commoner in the thronged Windsor environs. Rather, perhaps in deference to the 152nd wedding anniversary year of the Queen’s Croatian great-grandfather, the public broadcaster opted to bring viewers live coverage of the UEFA league Croatia vs. England soccer tilt played to a dull 0-0 draw. Fans were not permitted entry to the game played in Rijeka, Croatia due to league sanctions. BBC commentators noted that the contest “was silent both on and off the pitch…”.

    And now all’s well, here’s a helping of the “shape of things to come”, not by the Yardbirds.

    https://archive.org/details/ClaCinOnl_ThingsToCome

  7. Regarding the mentioned magical life ingredient: Based on the murine studies, 50 GRAMS a day would be required for either of us – Elaine could get by on 25. I looked at the wholesale market and the cheapest I could find costs approximately $1500.00 a month(from China). I’m not sure from the study if this can be used on a punctuate basis or if it needs continuous ingestion. There was no followup study to my knowledge.

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