With the Fed decision out Thursday, Fed Chair Yellen’s remarks, and our Peoplenomics Oscillator as guidance, our present outlook for the rolling Long Wave economic top is for a modest market decline to the 1,820-1,850 level around the time of the next Fed meeting.
George;
Hats off to; you. As you said the first direction is the ultimate direction. First a slight drop and then to a 200 point rise and then to a loss. Unfortunately I don’t have any money on the trade but will be armed the next time.
That is October 27-28 and I will try to get the day right – so much for personal time-warping this week. It’s one of the side effects of always living 10-minutes in the future.
As to what the Fed will do then?
One of our well-placed sources, who I’ll henceforth refer to as Talon, believes the Fed will attempt another quantitative easing.
It has been “street wisdom” by many armchair economists that quantitative easing was over and done with because – as markets were in serious trouble – the results were becoming progressively more costly.
The flip side, however, is likely also true. With markets attempting to put in a Wave IV bottom in here, having completed a massive Wave III up from the lows of 2008-2009, a quantitative easing might, indeed, be just the thing to get markets kicked up above technical levels required for the rally to become self-sustaining. Optimism, due in part to the presidential cycle, is back.
This sets up the possibility of two things: A much higher market for several years, and since the rise from the 2009 low to the 2011 high was on the order of ….no, let’s hold that back for www.peoplenomics.com readers. Tomorrow’s report. No point giving away the real working parts around here.
Needless to say, this will continue very much on a track in the long wave very similar to 1928-1929 and that blow-off topping process, but notice that QE’s are the vehicle not discount rate reductions which were the weapon of choice back in less elegantly financially-engineered times.
It’s the difference between a pat on the butt and a cattle prod.
The Japanese market was down 2% overnight, but Shanghai was stable. In Europe this morning, the majors are down 2 to 2 1/2%, which means our “resonance” with the summer/fall decline of 2011 should continue to fit to the tee.
The market should (in an ideal outcome per our model) end down 150, or a bit more, today and then rally strongly before yet another pullback. But until we pass the next Fed meeting and the QE4 or minor 25 BPS raise, I will continue to sit on my wallet and await easier ways to make a buck or five.
Even then, there are no guarantees. Outliers like fifth wave failures and such are to markets was a bad slice on the 15th hole is to golf. We should be about to make the turn, but there’s still a good bit of rough between here and the club house.
Gold is closing in on $1,140, but bitcoins are stuck in the neutral zone around $235…as they continue a large base-building after their Wave 1 collapse and meander through a long bottoming Wave 2. These might become interesting should we see spike market and confidence lows in October, but again, we’ll save some of those insights for subscribers.
Again, for those who missed it, the lows expected for Wave IV (previously expected for this Fed meeting) have pushed back to next Fed meeting. You either get time or price in analysis, seldom both will be perfect. Especially free.
Quadruple Witching
Today. We always expect the unexpected around in here.
The futures which were about flat overnight looked at Europe and are now down more than 150 on the Dow…
How to Fix Broken Government
Look: Lawyers are “officers of the Court” are they not?
So wouldn’t that preclude them from legislative and executive office? Can’t serve two masters, after all.
File under “Ure’s obviously nuts”…
Stupicity Roundup
It is time to make up a new word to be shared with all your friends and cohorts, chums, hoes, buds, pals or whatever you call ‘em.
Stupicity. I decided the word was needed to describe evens of Stupendous Stupidity.
Unfortunately, there are almost to many examples to name, but since that has never slowed us before, let’s roll out Hillary Clinton’s being unable to name any major accomplishments as SecState as a key example
Stupicity, like Political Correctness Disease, is all around us but little-noticed. It only becomes obvious when you scan the news headlines and ask yourself (after reading a headline) “does this make any sense at all?”
Speaking of mindful reading…
US Placating Muslims
The US government operates an “official news service” (just like China and Russia) called the Voice of America.
This morning, that (paid for with your tax dollars) site is headlining: “Trump Fails to Correct Man Calling Obama a Muslim Foreigner .“
Let me quote from the VOA article (since your tax dollars and mine paid for it):
“We have a problem in this country: it’s called Muslims,” said a man wearing a Trump T-shirt. “We know our current president is one. You know he’s not even American.”
“We need this question,” replied a smiling Trump, one of the highest-profile supporters of the so-called birther movement, which alleges – incorrectly – that Obama was born in Kenya and is therefore not an American citizen.
The Trump supporter continued: “We have training camps growing where they [Muslims] want to kill us. That’s my question: When can we get rid of them?”
“We’re going to be looking at a lot of different things,” said Trump. “You know, a lot of people are saying that and a lot of people are saying that bad things are happening out there.”
Not only did Trump not object to the man’s false characterization of Obama, he also failed to address what was interpreted by some as a call for eradicating Muslims from the United States.
Clinton responds
Hillary Clinton, the leading Democratic challenger for the White House, blasted Trump. In a statement on Twitter, she said: “Donald Trump not denouncing false statements about POTUS [President of the United States] & hateful rhetoric about Muslims is disturbing, & just plain wrong. Cut it out.”
Trump campaign officials later told several media outlets that the candidate did not hear the man’s question about Obama being a Muslim, and that his answer was in response to the part about the extremist training camps.
The highlighted part is the area where I have a question about the objectivity of the story and what we’re getting for our tax dollars.
Journalistic point: Just who the hell are the some who interpreted? No attribution.
There is another part to this: Bernie Sanders is the (honest socialist) on the left, yet the article didn’t quote Sanders – who is some polls is on part with, or ahead, of Clinton.
Eventually, the article admits this:
Trump campaign officials later told several media outlets that the candidate did not hear the man’s question about Obama being a Muslim, and that his answer was in response to the part about the extremist training camps.
Not to turn into a media critic here, but when standing on a stage in front of a noisy crowd, and perhaps not able to hear a question exactly, Trump used the question to promote a view.
But for a US Government media organ to be critical of Trump for failing to “object to a false characterization” is – in my view – a serious overstepping of government into opinion shaping and one that should be reviewed by Congress.
It gets worse…so bear with me as we look at the details.
Since a WaPo article from last night at 9:01 PM and the VOA story moved this morning, there is some likelihood that the VOA piece was a rewrite off this: (“http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/09/17/trump-doesnt-correct-rally-attendee-who-says-obama-is-muslim-and-not-even-an-american/”).
A journalistically correct report would have begun “According to the Washington Post…” or whatever the source was.
When tax dollar-supported official media issues statements like “he also failed to address what was interpreted by some as a call for eradicating Muslims from the United States” and does not identify the who the word “some” is referring to,it is clearly propagandizing. Eradicating is a hot, emotional word.
That’s how propaganda and mind control works – that low level stuff of “some” and “many” that implants below the perception threshold the idea that something is true and should not be questioned since no source is even needed…”Everyone knows” this thing to be a fact.
But that’s what propaganda is about, I suppose. But it’s an important point to study. The phrase “some have” is one of the most dangerous in journalism and thence mind control.
I find it VERY SIGNIFICANT AND YOU SHOULD TOO that since May of this year, the only media outlet indexed by Google News to use the term “eradicating Muslims” is the US government’s official media. (*Accurate as of press time this morning.)
War-whipping at its finest.
And that’s some scary shit about how mind control works and is programming you.
BS on “not hearing” the question. The guy was so loud that the only Trump’s mic picked up every word clearly. The claim of not understanding the question is right up there with his claim that the Univision reporter was removed by “someone from security, I don’t know” when it was Trump’s personal bodyguard who has been within 10 feet of him every waking hour for months now. That thug in a suit didn’t move until Trump looked at him and nodded.
Im sure you saw this http://www.tylerpaper.com/TP-News+Local/224124/pastor-calms-man-during-church-threat
(Tyler, TX)—”Every hair on my neck just stood up,” said Rev. John D. Johnson III, when Rasheed Abdul Aziz walked into Corinth Missionary Baptist Church last Sunday. (Screengrab via KETK)
According to a report in the Tyler Morning Telegraph, the armed and heavily tattooed Aziz—who was wearing camouflage fatigue pants, camo boots, a black T-shirt and a tactical vest—was sweating profusely when he launched into a rant about being a “man of Islam.”
Well, I guess that NOT watching the US and British news outlets keeps me sane. It really sucks that to get to the truth we have to dig into overseas sources or else parse word order, phrases and text, verify statements and past quotes, and research every word coming out of “news sources”. Even the alternative media that used to serve this purpose has become filled with shills on the take from various directions.
So, it actually makes sense to NOT watch news.
With TV, Cable, Radio and Print all vying for attention and completely unfettered with actually reporting 100% verified facts – the news has turned into a gossip mill. I equate that with watching a soap opera – but actually, soap actors are much more believable…
I think watching these news comedies and reading the news comics is something that should be put right up there with commercials. It really stinks that even Mexico has reporters where we have editors/interpreters and news readers.
I’ll stick with scanning the headlines and digging when appropriate. It is fortunate that voting doesn’t matter and the only way to win (in the game of ‘Oligarchies’) is not to play. Voting with feet and wallet is the only answer.
George…When you rant about how we are stuck with a fake 2 party system, I have to agree with you. But when you start doing the very same as CorpMedia, I have to call you on it. At one time or another, you have fauned over every one of these lying deceiful traitors. Every one of these Repugs will approve TPP, TISA and the rest of the alphabet screw jobs CorpGov wants. But you will still vote for them, expecting that they will actually do something positive for this country, then cry about what ‘they’ are doing to us when you realize you’ve been had. If there is a logic there, I am missing it. Then you make statements like this: “Bernie is an honest socialist, but I don’t endorse confiscatory government and gunpoint wealth redistribution to those not willing to work, or those who swamp the borders”. So, apparently you know more about Bernies’ intentions than he does, as I never read positions like this from him. If you are honest, you know we ALREADY have the situation you supposedly fear. It seems that you fear redistribution only when you think it will reverse from what we have now-migration of wealth to the elite. I’ve noticed your ‘socialist’ indignation before. Tell the truth, have you ever once looked into Sanders discussion of policy points? Also, explain to me how what you claim, in your above statement, is going to occur, inasmuch as he would have to institute said imaginary policies with the help of repugs and dumbos alike. Are you forgetting that some of your darlings of the GOP/TP have done and would do just what you accuse Sanders of, vis-a-vis illegals? You apparently are unaware that Sanders is for a closed border and ALWAYS has been. He’s even for cutting H1B visas, to give kids in this country a chance at employment, instead of importing workers…tell me of even one of your darlings that espouse that. His message is resonating with all sorts of people across the US, packing to SRO practically every venue. Even the Donald, until recently, has not matched his crowds. You also have the habit of mentioning that he is a (socialist) whenever you mention him, as if he is hiding his label. Not that it’s a negative for the younger, less brainwashed. It is the same subtle fear mongering/dismissing the MSM does. How many are aware that he has been drawing the biggest crowds of anyone all along? The MSM is doing what they do best in relation to Sanders:they ignore him. Out of sight, out of mind. You know why this is…they actually do fear him. Perhaps, in the interest of actual intellectual honesty, you could start labeling repugs and dumbos as (facsist Corporate whores),(faux patriot) or(lying traitors)…you know, an honest determination. So the next time you have the urge to lament our pitiful political landscape, remember that you are as guilty of fomenting and institutionalizing this mindset as anyone, by relying on labels, instead of substance. Maybe, instead of knee-jerk reactionary positioning, you might try looking into what he is aiming for and where he wants to take us…you’d be surprised to find that he calls for many of the very things that you say we need, unlike your darlings of the GOP, who say, but never deliver.
THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH MR. TRUMP’S COMMENTS WERE THAT THEY ARE TRUE.
“US government’s official media.” what the heck is the “U.S. governments official media”?
Wikipedia: “The Voice of America (VOA) is the official external broadcast institution of the United States federal government. The VOA provides programming for broadcast on radio, TV, and the Internet outside of the U.S., in English and some foreign languages. A 1976 law signed by President Gerald Ford requires the VOA to “serve as a consistently reliable and authoritative source of news.”[1] The VOA Charter states: “VOA news will be accurate, objective and comprehensive.”[1] The Voice of America headquarters is located at 330 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC, 20237, U.S. The Voice of America is fully funded by the U.S. government. The United States Congress appropriates funds for it annually under the same budget for embassies and consulates.
I saw the interview with Hillary Clinton and the question posed to Donald Trump. I’m confused by your take on both. Hillary mentions a cease- fire between Isreal and Hammas and the coalition to bring sactions against Iran as accomplishments. Are those not significant enough?
And The Donald nodded his head as though he understood the question and answered the mans question by saying that he and his team were investigating those same claims. Can’t say either one does it for me, but clearly one has a point and the other is expelling hot air. I suspect we may differ on which is which.
George-
Not to flatter, as that is supercilious in my book. However, I have to say you hit that nail’s head so often, it tickles my innards.
I so love your columns. Its my daily ‘fix’ and if I was not on fixed,dubious low income SSA, I would subscribe to Peoplenomics in a heartbeat. In fact I’ll ask for that for my next birthday. It is well worth it.
my point:
Talk about a ‘good ol’ boys club’
This article is worth peeking at perhaps one of the most succinct summations of this topic; “How to Fix Broken Government
Look: Lawyers are “officers of the Court” are they not?
So wouldn’t that preclude them from legislative and executive office? Can’t serve two masters, after all.”
http://www.barefootsworld.net/sui_juris/hiding_behind_bar.html
How many people know that BAR has origins of allegiance to British Accredited Registry, or that there is a distinct difference between an attorney (who has allegiance to the courts/government and lawyers who advise?)
Read the article, its an education.
It is one of the reasons I took my LSATs, got an education yet chose never to become an attorney.
p.s. Even judges have their own private club aside from lowly attorneys- called Inns of Court.
There is an invisible ‘caste’ system at play in all of this, topped off with a bit of puppeteer starting at an invisible apex.
These days (for entertainment?) we mix actors, corporate TV personalities, physicians, and agents of the Judiciary in one public blender, to LEGISLATE, administrate the EXECUTIVE and we wonder why our politics and government is all screwed up?
I say, leave the attorneys out like we tried to do back in the day with an amendment (13th) that got buried.
Its more fun with the other actors.