Politics: Excellence Lost, Post Fed Date

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In case you were under a rock, the key part of the Fed decision Wednesday afternoon was:

“In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”

There was also this in the instructions to the Trading desk at the Fed:

  • In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 5.5 percent.

This, to us, is a Big Hint about something we’ve railed about for years.  Namely, should rates be held much more stable?  We know over history that the “right” interest rate in America is about 7 percent per year.  In the Desk directive, the Fed seems to be hinting at HFL – higher for longer – in this old man’s view.

We now have some question about whether rates will come down in September, now that Ms. Harris seems to be developing something of a lock on the election in polls.

If this is the case, we will know soon enough by looking at employment data.  Remember, federal numbers tomorrow morning and we have the Challenger layoffs report just out:

“U.S.-based employers announced 25,885 job cuts in July, a 47% decrease from the 48,786 cuts announced one month prior. It is up 9% from the 23,697 cuts announced in the same month in 2023, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

July’s total marks the fourth time this year cuts were higher than the corresponding month a year earlier. It is the highest total for the month since 2020, when 262,649 cuts were recorded.”

This means the economy is moving along pretty well and, at least to us, (and the CME Fed Watch Tool) there’s only a 15 percent chance of a rate cut at the mid-September meeting.

The low rate of layoffs also ripples into the weekend unemployment filing data just out.

America’s Productivity Miracle

You want a Pearl Harbor sized event to worry about?  How about this:  We wake up one morning and find that Productivity of American workers has been collapsing and any “improvement” in the data comes from more machinery and code.  Seriously, paying people $40 and having them playing social media grab-ass all day, doesn’t make sense.

This is a “reasonable appetizer course” to this press release just out from Labor:

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.3 percent in the second quarter of 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 3.3 percent and hours worked increased 1.0 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annualized rates.) From the same quarter a year ago, nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.7 percent.

Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2024, reflecting a 3.3-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 2.3-percent increase in productivity. Unit labor costs increased 0.5 percent over the last four quarters, the lowest rate since the third quarter of 2019, when the measure also increased 0.5 percent. “

It’s a damn miracle, I tell you.

Excellence Exits Politics

Tell you a little story about son G2.  Where he works – site medic for server farm build in the PNW – more than 50 – 100 construction workers a threw “surprise party” for him Wednesday. It was their way of saying “Thanks!” for the excellence he delivers on site.

Obviously, the name-of-the-game in construction is keeping the number of “reportables” as low as possible. He’s got that one nailed.  But the “thank you” was for the above & beyond.  Handling emergency medicine “just right.”

The Crews know his heart is deeply in it, too.  It was when he found a worker with a previously undiagnosed heart problem or going out on 105-degree hot days to pass out liquids and hydration popsicles so everyone stays sharp and safe. He also is the lynchpin of Donut Wednesday – picking up 20-dozen donuts every Wednesday.

He got the “atta boys” because of a single concept:  Dedication to Excellence.  In the Trades, excellence isn’t “a thing” it’s THE Thing.

Now the Contrast

American politics has turned its back on Excellence.  So, if you want to cite a single reason why, all you have to do is look at an Associated Press story.

Election 2024: Trump falsely suggests Harris misled voters about her race | AP News

Now to the point.  When I started reporting news regularly (back in 1969, at KRKO in Everett, WA) the Associated Press would have NEVER been so outright partisan as to say “…Trump falsely…”  They would have written “. Trump suggests Harris misled…”  Once upon a time, the A.P. that I made hundreds in stringer fees over the years from, would have never MADE VALUE JUDGMENTS as to the Truth or veracity of a claim.

It was clear – at least back then – that Judgment was something the readers – the News Consumers – were to bring to the table. As always, we are given a major clue by Universe.  As PBS ran the “near miss” story PBS News Hour | The links between polarization and declining trust in media | Season 2024 | PBS,

Polarization?  Low-hanging fruit for lazy journos. The real issue is the Media predigesting what should be a clean, orderly, and balanced presentation of events. (Not Agendas.)  Too bad PBS missed it.  So does most of America.

I’ll tell you what:  Going through the News anymore is like going out for  steak dinner.  Only to have the server/waitperson offer “Do you want me to pre-chew that for you, mister?”

As happens all the time in the News (spin) cycle, Trump was not entirely wrong questioning whether Kamala Harris is “Black.” Let’s look at her ancestry per Wikipedia:

  • “Her mother, Shyamala Gopalan…” And ” Shyamala had moved to the United States from India as a 19-year-old graduate student in 1958.” Indian.
  • “Donald Jasper Harris was born in Brown’s Town, St. Ann Parish, Jamaica, the son of Oscar Joseph Harris and Beryl Christie Harris (née Finegan),[7][8] who were Afro-Jamaicans.”

The Associated Press didn’t raise the question, “How much Black ancestry is needed to be marketed to voters as Black?” In Harris’ case, it’s hard to tell because we don’t have a 23andme on the paternal-side DNA. We think she is something less than 25 percent Black, but so am I.  (Although my claim relates to a centuries-old single DNA strand out of North Africa swamped by the 99.9 percent Scandanavian-Scottish berserker genes.)

The REAL problem isn’t Kamala’s race; it’s her left-wing liberal from Marxist political senses.  Her track record isn’t that impressive but we expect her to win because the War Party plan seems to be to lock up Donald Trump and talk about what a criminal he is for a paperwork error, now that the Felon Father is out of the way.

The Excellence of the Person is the point.  My pick of a Vice President (either party) would be Dr. Ben Carson or Morgan Freeman.  But, strangely, not because they are Black (which crooked media shills are selling hard).  No.  Dr. Ben is going to be the “smartest guy in the room” in most any assembly of humans you can collect.  And Morgan Freeman?  By all accounts he is one of the most moral and heart-centered people to survive Cesspool of Hollywood.  I would trust my life to either.

And THAT dear reader is the whole point.  Race is a bullshit metric.  There’re quality people and then there’s the hucksters. And for whatever reason, those have been drawn into media and politics to the detriment of we the little “people in the Trades.”

Race doesn’t matter, but Excellence does.  Near as we can figure, sadly, Excellence isn’t running.  Despite stories like Kamala Harris says Trump’s false claims about her Black identity show ‘divisiveness,’ ‘disrespect’. No, they show complicit media isn’t looking at what was actually accomplished by VP Harris. Didn’t Slo send her to “fix the border?”

Still, a few headlines got it right. Trump questions whether US Vice President Kamala Harris is ‘Indian’ or ‘Black’ | (yenisafak.com). Except the real answer – that she’s whatever race will raise the most money – is politely left unstated.  Seems to us, our VP has taken the Pocahontas Political Marketing home study course?

Headline Incontinence

Liberal attack on the Supreme Court ramps up with “stories” like Robin Abcarian: The Supreme Court is out of control. Here’s what it will take to rein it in. Constitution?  Naw… that has only been a rumor for years.

Still Dead? Does this mean a Hamas leader isn’t dead until the Israeli IDF says he is? Top Hamas commander Mohammed Deif killed in Israeli strikes, IDF says.

Another note in our decrying the news is related to the story above. Reuters changes headline describing slain Hamas leader Haniyeh as ‘moderate’ amid backlash: ‘Depraved’ | Fox News

Oh, did the U.S. Congress declare war on Iraq?  U.S. Conducts Defensive Airstrike in Iraq Amid Rising Tensions. Um, defensive?

Did it come with a “Free Placement” warranty? Ukraine receives first F-16 fighter jets after long wait | Luxembourg Times. You know who pays for the warranty, huh?

At the Ranch: Mini-me in operation

Well, now we’re done it.  Off of the full-sized computers, at least for now.  We are driving this morning on our “test case” (one of these) and so far, it’s working pretty well. Friday was spent extracting the 2280 NVMe out of the old XPS 8940.

What I get (and have $800 in savings over a replacement full-sized Dell) is a reasonable small format box.  Which I can replace the power supply on in less than 1 minute and under $30 bucks.

With a USB 3.2 hub, it will handle all the external peripherals laying around. Like the optical drive, an assortment of 2 and 4 T SSDs, plus a USB plug-in card reader for the Peoplenomics Excel backups.

I’ll let you know as we go along, but conceptually think of computing as going back to the Smorgasbord concept.  You get a plate (the processor in a small box) and then load up anything you want with the SuperSpeed ports.

Seems to make sense, but we’re always skeptical. Remember, Obama and George Bush sounded good at first, too.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

32 thoughts on “Politics: Excellence Lost, Post Fed Date”

  1. Ure Nizzle Pizzle !

    Afro Jamaican ? Ja makin me crazy. Can I get Pick for that Afro?

    “we aint found shit!” -https://youtu.be/hD5eqBDPMDg?si=cXAuejDQMlzTO6MB

    It is Thirsty Thursday, BCN started early – last night..at the Pitch. 30 rows up from field, thought I saw the Phillie Phanatic down there…NERP!

    It was The Goonersauraus! Live and roaming the sidelines at Lincoln Financial Field.

    Go Gunners! ARE SEN AL all night long!

    Since it was a “friendly” everyone was on their BEST Behavior. There were a TONS of Kids there with their parental units. I never saw so many Ex-Soccer players in one place ever in my life.
    I am a student of personal body mechanics – it is an automatic thing. Just like Ice Hockey players – play Soccer long enough you get “bowed legs” – there were a lot of bowed legs walking thru the concourse last night..a lot.
    Been a while since I bot and paid for Food and Beers at an athletic event – holy scheisse Gman! $17 bucks for 16 ounce Lite. Also some new fucked up rule about plastic caps on water bottles – they take them off, before they hand you the product. 1st saw this phenom. last month in Zurich at T-Swizzles 2nd show.

    Ever heard of anyone being injured by a plastic water bottle cap ? AYFKM ? Further Pussification of the Populace, further DeNutization..?

    Am so F-ING tired of all the “commie bullsceisse” – think its time..to go down the deepest rabbit hole in Western Civilization – it wasnt the Fed, wasnt organized crime, it was same ole same ole ancient dark forces that been the Adversaries of Mankind since we were first “spliced” together and grown into Being.
    Hope You all can enjoy this, the latest peek behind the Curtain from uncle Gordy – https://www.theinteldrop.org/2024/07/31/broken-arrow-the-most-dangerous-weapon-of-all/

    “Those the gods wish to destroy, they first..

  2. I’ve been on record here, Trump is never going to win.

    Instead of Trump swapping Vance for Carson Trump should drop out of the race and throw it to Carson.

    Perception is Melania avoided Trump’s kiss at the convention so she effectively friend-zoned him. Usually the FZ means the marriage is over so Trump dropping to ‘focus on family’ would align and make him look like a decent guy riding into the sunset. Focus on family and the bible sales.

  3. “How much Black ancestry is needed to be marketed to voters as Black?”

    lol I wonder how that is explained in the census?

    on one side of my family they came to the USA before the declaration of independence.. on the other they came after..
    so when the census called they wanted to know what my nationality was.. I said American..they said no what nationality are you.. a born and bred us american.. they said seriously you can’t be american.. I said ok..my ancestors came before we became the usa.. so I am a native american..
    well they wouldn’t accept that either..I wonder how she gets by with it lol lol lol

  4. “Although my claim relates to a centuries-old single DNA strand out of North Africa swamped by the 99.9 percent Scandanavian-Scottish berserker genes.)”

    There’s a lost story there!

    • I have a friend with blond hair, blue eyes and pink cheeks. He burns easily in the sun. All of his four kids are blond as well. He had a black grandfather and didn’t realize it until he was an adult when he asked why Uncle John was black. Fascinating how genetics work. My grandchildren are bi racial. I have told them that they could easily have black babies with the red hair and green eyes that run in my family.

    • Raiders didn’t always do a Genghis and murder every man, woman, and child. Raiders weren’t always Northern Mediterranean. Vikings forcibly bred with enough Rus and Slav to create the modern Russian and Ukrainian ethnicities, and enough Moors to bless their entire culture with red hair and blue eyes. Seafaring African raiders created the “Black Irish” and undoubtedly raided Northern Ureup as turnabout to the Vikings’ African raids (or perhaps predated them.)

      Elizabeth Warren is “no more than 1/1024 American Indian” means 11 (or more) generations ago, a female ancestor of hers was raped by an Indian brave (or many) and lived to birth the issue. It happens. There’s probably a little Neanderthal in all of us…

  5. Top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated Wednesday by a bomb that was smuggled into the Tehran guesthouse where he was staying two months before his arrival, according to a report. Haniyeh, who was initially thought to have been killed in…

    https://nypost.com/2024/08/01/world-news/bomb-smuggled-into-tehran-guesthouse-months-ago-killed-hamas-leader-report/

    Sahih Muslim: Book 041, Hadith 7034
    The dajjal would be followed by seventy thousand Jews of Isfahan wearing Persian shawls.

    Nostradamus and The Age of Desolation 2013
    Page 419 G.A. Stewart
    “Seventy thousand Jews of Isfahan wearing Persian shawls” is certainly a reference to Israeli special operators and spies inside of Iran.

    https://theageofdesolation.com/nostradamus/2024/07/26/war-with-iran-is-next/

  6. Always wonder why a press writer could quote a politician statements in an article. Then at the bottom of an article in separate paragraphs titled “writers opinion”. State that the statement is false and identify where you could find the true statement. That way you would keep the writers personal opinion out of the main article.

    • But the writer CAN’T say the statement is false, because that would still be expressing the writer’s opinion, and (s)he can’t say where the “true” opinion may be found, because that is expressing the writer’s judgement.

      NEWS should be information, presented as fact, with the most-rigorous attempt within the constraints of time, to assure the reader that the fact presented is, to the best knowledge of the reporter, also true. There should be no opinion or coloration whatsoever. Unfortunately, in reading and hearing news copy for over 50 years, and reading historical news back several hundred, I have yet to see a news report which has not been shaded in some way. Shading is cyclical, and some periods in time have been more heavily shaded than others (like the period of “yellow journalism” in the late 19th and early 20th Century.) “Information” is one hell of a powerful drug and people can not forever resist getting their hands on that power.

      The difference between say, 1970 and today, is “news-tampering” used to be done subtly, or even covertly, but now it’s done right out in the open. It is as if the editors and publishers have decided we’re too stupid to realize what they’re doing, or why.

      As I look around me, I can’t help wondering sometimes, if they’re right…

  7. I was wondering.. there’s been a lot of talk about there being a “coup d’etat,” … my curiosity is.. against which one?

    or was it against Both… obviously trying to cover over the alleged corruption of the brand isn’t working and attempting to paint an administration as credible that has done more damage to the country in so many ways financially and globally trying to cover over the sheer incompetence of their actions while attacking the previous administration..
    so if this a “coup d’etat,” which one is the target? or if it was was it to target.. BOTH.. by the powerful behind the curtains pulling the strings. this administration reluctantly gave up his candidacy and the other more wary against his attackers and seems as if the constant attacks have aged him trying to keep ahead of the nonstop attacks..
    it makes me wonder.. and of course Stu has once again proven that his translations of predictions is on top of it..on payday I’m going to buy his books once again just because.. I already own all of them but he deserves the recognition for his hard work and excellent work..I wonder what his take is on all of this..

    • Biden /Trump and Harris/Biden were both coups — sorta, but not really. A coup d’État is generally a violent overthrow of the existing government. Ukraine between 2012 and 2014 was a coup d’État engineered by George Soros and carried out principally by his organization and USAID, under the direction of Victoria Nuland, and using thousands of paid agents and mercenaries — and it was pretty bloody, for a while.

      Biden/Trump was a dishonest election, engineered by the Democratic machinery using every means of “gaming the system” they’ve learned since the 1830s.

      Harris/Biden is a non-violent takeover. Neither is running the EOP, so since person or persons unknown are giving the orders, whomever’s the front-man really doesn’t make any difference.

      While I would prefer “accuracy in media,” saying “coup d’État” really doesn’t bother me much, because the meaning of the term has been liberalized to “government overthrow” and the result has been the same, only with less spilt blood.

  8. low coost bread went from .84 cents to 1.49 and now with low cost supplier not deliverimg anymore lowest cost 1.99…

    • Back in the late 90’s I used to hit the “day old” factory bread store and buy 100% Whole Wheat bread (made with sugar NOT corn syrup) for a nickle a loaf. The 8 danish in a foil pan were 40 to 65 cents. The factory 2nd day stores (they had 3 in town) closed down with the bankruptcy of the Interstate Bakeries. Today the same bread at Aldi’s is $1.89, at a regular grocery store $3.29.

      Locally Cub Foods, a huge discount warehouse size grocery store with the best prices for at least 60 miles was bought out by Krogers back about 2000. Guess what? They didn’t want the store space … they wanted to get rid of the competition, and as soon as they did they raised their packaged food prices throughout the entire metro area by 30%! (Cub Foods only had 2 stores in town, but forced the entire market to charge lower prices because of those two stores)

      Yep … the cost of living and raising a family has gotten ridiculous. Two wage earners making decent coin now required. Having only one wage earner in a family just doesn’t cut it anymore unless they make a HUGE amount of money.

      • Memories… walking home from swimming lessons at the YMCA in the 60s I had to pass the big bakery. They had the “day old” store where I could get those 25-cent fruit pies for a dime. Carbo loading after swimming and a mile walk. Something equivalent at Wally world is now $1.15.

      • Yeah…

        My locally-owned grocery stores refused to sell. They drove Kroger, Pep-Boys, and other such chains out of town. The hardware and lumber stores didn’t have that kind of cojones though, so today I get to buy wormwood from Lowe’s and Menards and much of my non-fastener hardware from the Internet. Wal-Mart and Meijer came in, but built several miles out of town to avoid the local politics. They price-check the locals and adjust their prices, but yer still gonna burn $2 worth of gas just to shop there, so they’re not as busy as they would be if they had the only game in town…

      • I miss the bread stores. The ones that’re left have all become smoke shops. I can still buy the cheap (fresh) bread for $1.69 but would honestly prefer not to…

  9. Well Amazon has finally figured that Hawaii is a ‘market’. The news calls Amazon a ‘Delivery Company’ now… kinda like FedEx. FWIW, looking at priority trainloads of containers on the busiest mountain pass in SoCal… Tehachapi Pass… I see about four times as many ‘Amazon Prime’ blue smile containers as FedEx going by on trains. Anyway, back to Hawaii. The news last night showed us the new $300 million Amazon Delivery warehouse built on Sand Island at Honolulu Harbor… right close to where they offload containers from the ships. Short container trip to offload at the sorting warehouse and out the door in electric blue vans. 60% of Hawaii deliveries are right there in Honolulu and Oahu island. They didn’t say how they get the other 40% to the neighbor islands. So maybe I will start seeing fewer of the “Not available to your zip code” shipping notices on Amazon. Maybe someday I might seriously start shopping Amazon. But for now, eBay and USPS delivery are my preferred vendors out here in the jungles.

    • “They didn’t say how they get the other 40% to the neighbor islands.”

      They won’t, until they build a distribution warehouse in your neighborhood. Amazon is trying to blanket CONUS with a grid of distribution warehouses that’re located 40-60 miles apart &or service no more than 2mln customers. (F’r instance, Metro Chicago will eventually have about 22 warehouses, but the one that’s NE will be in Kenosha, not Evanston, so it can service the south side of Milwaukee, also.) Mine are about 70 miles apart, therefore I get no Amazon delivery.

      You and your neighbors may be at the top of the list for experimental heavy-drone deliveries, though, where I’m sure I am not even under consideration. Since I live in a place where I can buy a gallon of milk, a dozen eggs, a loaf of bread, and a can of Dr. Pepper for $5.04, and your CoL (and potential ‘Zon spending) are presumably somewhat higher, you are probably a somewhat more attractive customer than I…

      • I doubt I’ll have drone delivery in my lifetime. The Big Island is BIG. And there’s only about 200k population here. As it is I have to drive 90 miles over the mountain to the only Costco warehouse on the island over in Kona. What few Amazon items I have gotten always seem to come FedEx ground… which is another delaying irritation here. Post Office is the only real reliable delivery service in this neck of the woods (literally).

  10. George,
    The Nikkei is currently down over 5%.
    The ACWI dominant crash decay fractal series is a 1 July 2024 6/13/6 of 13 day :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y fractal series completing a Oct 2023 13(-)/31 week first and second fractal series with a possible extension of 8-9 days or 6/13/13/8-9 days. This devaluation crash will be significant enough to precipitate an early fed funds rate cut.
    With or without a fed fund rate cut, the ten year note will fall to below 3.5%.

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