The Conundrum of Sports Economics

Times are changing for pro sports. Not yet visible in the absurd level of marketing hype and product licensing of names, logos, and mascots, but changing they are. Issues like use of public bonding authority and new forms of personal extreme sports are one front, but so is the rising awareness of the long-term injury costs of sports at all levels. This morning we examine some aspects of the playing field and come up with some interesting data about the high cost of sports at many levels and point to how things are changing as a social/sports pendulum begins to swing. First, though, coffee, headlines, and charts…

Markets to Bleed Red

We all know how manic stock bubbles end… Badly. So it should come as no surprise that when China decreased the amount of play money, the Shanghai Stock Market, the SSE as it’s called, had a very bitter day: Down more than 5% in a single session. You can see a one-month chart of the SSE over here. Here’s the problem in a nutshell and why the US market is set to drop more than 100 points at the open this morning:

Coping: Give Paranoia for Christmas

There has been a quiet exodus among some of us “grays” that should cause young people concern.

An increasing number are exercising their ability to (as the old airline commercial put it) “”Get up and move around the country.”

A cousin of mine, a year or two older, has picked up a winter home in Arizona.  My sister is eyeing Sequim, WA, and a long-time pal and her husband are looking at those hills north of Phoenix, too.

Their reasons vary, of course.  One likes more sunshine, another hates the traffic south of Bellevue, WA, and another has grown tired of the gray winters.  All super-legit reasons to move – on the surface.

But, when you stand back like you’re watching a herd, you that they are dispersing.  You know, like the animals that dispersed and headed up into the hills of Banda Aceh before “the big one” tsunami down there in 2004.  When I look just so, I see a kind of dispersion movement going on.

Not that they’d be wrong about dispersing.

I assume you’ve read the latest from super-brain Stephen Hawking.  According to this newspaper report, Hawking has seven ways that our run as dominant species on this rock could end.

Let’s run through them, one at a time, and see how realistic “The End” might be ands how to address those worries with just the right gifts at Christmas…:

1. Cataclysmic Asteroid Strike.

We don’t have to go any further than this morning’s report by the Christian Science Monitor to discover that a group of Russian scientists have spied a mountain-sized asteroid heading our way.

The good news is that while earth-crossing (goes ahead or behind Earth’s orbit every three years, or so) the asteroid is not at present dangerous.  It will miss.

Still,  you can feed paranoia for Christmas by giving a decent telescope like the Orion 09007 SpaceProbe 130ST Equatorial Reflector Telescope (Black).  For just $300-bucks, you could be the first one on the block to see it coming.  With a CCD eyepiece, you might be able to pick up some spare income from photographing the comings and goings from the motel down the street, too.  (Everything’s a what?)

Oh, and if you do find Planet X…..

2.  Artificial Intelligence

The way Hawking as it figured, humans might be judged as extraneous to the needs of AI..and so it could do away with us. 

In the meantime, notice that a group called Sqreem has been hired by the United Bank of Switzerland (UBS) to advise their high-end wealth clients.  Worth noting that Sqreem is not US-based, is it?

For gifting try Person of Interest: Season 3 ($40 bucks) along with The Arduino Starter Kit (Official Kit from Arduino with 170-page Arduino Projects Book) ($90) and some USB cables and a copy of Excel and Access so you can whip up spreadsheets for logic and Access databases until you, too, get a TV series about you AI project.

3. Genetically Created Plague

I bet you didn’t know that there’s a current outbreak of plague in Madagascar, did you?

The truly paranoid will want their own rolls of  Roll Products 142-0004 PVC Film Biohazard Warning Tape with Black Imprint, Legend “Biohazard” (with Logo), 55 yd.

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The “Blow Off” Conspiracy

You don’t have to get up and go to work this morning.  I mean unless you really want to. 

That’s because although the market is likely to open soft and down a bit, on crude oil’s continued decline, there will not likely be much action this week.

Next and and into year-end?  Maybe then.

Many Wall St. types are paid based on how well their funds and investments perform for the year.  The easiest way to pocket a big paycheck to handle the Christmas (Hanukah) bills is to have a blow-out fourth quarter.

And to have a screaming year-end closing, technical moves like a decline today are useful.  It lets the big boyz make a lot of last-minute cash while the rest of us ponder a bleak Christmas.

Memo to self:  In next next lifetime, sign up to be a one-percenter.

Maybe the Santa Rally isn’t a formal conspiracy. But, if it works out that way as it has in the past, it wouldn’t be the first time.  And I’m not the only one calling it.

Talk out of Europe that falling growth rates and deflation are a concern, should be about as newsworthy as your breakfast cereal.  Until PPI later in the week, pardon me if I just hit snooze and roll over.

Contrarian View:

From a reader:

I track the January Indicator every year.

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Coping: With My “Designated Smart Guys”

This about the easiest Monday morning column I’ve ever written.

That’s because of two phone calls Sunday from my list of “designated smart guys.”

Everyone has them, or should.  They’re the people who work in an industry, have a specialized practices, or some skill or exceptional expertise that sets them apart from run-of-the-mill people who don’t think, don’t store intellectual capital, and who couldn’t connect two dots to form a line to save their souls.

The world is full of “average” people, for a reason: Laziness.

It’s simple enough to cure, fortunately:  All you need is a design template:  If you want to be like smart, successful people, all you need to do is spend your time talking and learning from (care to guess?) smart and successful people..

I like to share the thoughts of my “Designated Smart Guys” (Ure’s Brain Trust) because they are extremely smart people and when they nod in a particular direction, you’re best advised to look where directed, because something BIG is likely coming from off yonder thataway.

The first call was from my friend Howard Hill, who recently published the definitive book on how the Housing Bubble collapses.  The book hasn’t sold particularly well, but that’s because it was late to market.

In the world of high finance opinions are made quickly, but unfortunately, it can be argued that books prior to Howard’s missed key aspects of the crisis.  They simply got it wrong.  Howard’s book, on the other hand, really takes things apart, gets it right, and extracts a lesson which is useful to UrbanSurvival/Peoplenomics readers who invest in the longer-term  and don’t so much care about scalping a dime today and a nickel tomorrow.

Howard doesn’t write enough, but when he gets into a serious writing mood (three very excellent posts in one weekend) I feel compelled to share Howard’s work with you as incredibly useful in developing your understanding of high finance.

So part one of this morning’s column is to read the following (in this order):

Are We There Yet?

The Next Big One Might Already Be Warming Up

Three Conditions and Three Warning Signs

How to Tell if the Next Financial Crisis is Upon Us.

It’s a Wonderful Business

Bailey Bros Building and Loan

The last one will particularly appeal to people who enjoy Jimmy Stewart’s role in the Christmas Season classic – it’s a reminder of just how deeply ingrained our canonization of the financial industry is. 

Oh, and it also is yet-another reason to believe that “The Movie is the Message” as our Gulfstream-crowd sources have mentioned on many occasions. 

When one of the inventors of Financial Engineering as a craft calls, I listen.

But that wasn’t the only call to pass on from Sunday.

The second call was from a very knowledgeable smart guy in a different field: Military affairs. 

While we can’t reveal his former rank or other personally identifiable information, what I can tell you is when a former US Defense Attaché calls, I pay strict attention..

In particular, as we are watching The Global Caliphate get rolled out, watch Constantinople closely and check the Wiki entry for Ottoman Empire.  The hint of future from that exchange was simple:  Watch the Turks

During the 16th and 17th centuries, in particular at the height of its power under the reign of Suleiman the Magnificent, the Ottoman Empire was a powerful multinational, multilingual empire controlling much of Southeast Europe, Western Asia, the Caucasus, North Africa, and the Horn of Africa.[11] At the beginning of the 17th century the empire contained 32 provinces and numerous vassal states. Some of these were later absorbed into the empire, while others were granted various types of autonomy during the course of centuries.[dn 4]

With Constantinople as its capital and control of lands around the Mediterranean basin, the Ottoman Empire was at the center of interactions between the Eastern and Western worlds for six centuries.

The advice from our source is simple:  Notice that religion in Turkey is 67% Sunni and that their most recent leader has been turning from his predecessor’s Western-leanings back to a more traditional Sunni social structure.  Which, in case it’s too early to connect the dots, makes Turkey a key ISIS player, even while they may put on some NATO duds now and then.

Turkey has “run” the ‘Stans before, all the way to Mongolia, so while we watch the birthing of the Global Caliphate, I expect relations to warm between the Saudis and the Turks and for ISIS to continue gathering resources in that part of the world.

Also, you may find one other part of the conversation interesting:  Why Russia may be expected to double-down on any Ukraine bets. 

It comes down to two things:  Most Russian military hardware depends, at least in some measure, on parts made in Ukraine.  The other key point is that Ukraine is Russia’s breadbasket, not to mention the Crimea being their only warm water port.

The EU desperately needs another financial date rape (ask Cyprus, Greece, and others about how much fun this is), but Russia is not about to be bullied by cookie-pushers into a Western rollover.  Not without bigger trouble than we can afford. 

2017?  We should be in the depths of the economic collapse, and that will speed up Armageddon since many of China’s five-year plans for 2020 are working well ahead of schedule.

Not later than 2020, seems our front row seats at World Collapse will be ready for prime time and if you haven’t resettled well away from a major city by then, please take a few moments of which country invented firestorm attacks on civilian populations. 

Two hints:  Dresden and Hamburg.

Along with Nagasaki and Hiroshima, these kinds of highly successful attacks on civilian populations set the USA up for a 70-year run as a global superpower.

Surely, you and I can’t be the only ones who have noticed?

Around the Ranch:  Leaf Me Alone

It you ever wondered about living out in the woods, there is one tiny detail that is NOT it any sales brochure.

It’s the matter of how many leaves come off the hardwood trees around here in the wintertime.

Sunday I finished up hours and hours of leaf blowing because if we don’t blow the leaves off, what passes (barely) for a lawn gets covered with so many leaves that sunlight doesn’t reach the plants and then the grass dies….all of it.

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Super-Prepper Alert: Could the US Population Be Controlled?

Say, here’s a wild-eyed thing to consider if you’re a prepper:  Can the US Population be controlled?  Not that it’s impertinent, since we have had demonstrations in places like Ferguson and more recently, New York, Dallas, and elsewhere.

So to what degree can the civilian population be controlled?  It’s an important question to investors to keep up on, since how people feel has everything to do with who feels enough confidence in the future to put some money behind it in the way of investments.

Before we get into the details, though, our usual first stops will include a few news stories that being to sketch out something I’m calling the “Workberg”.  Remember, last time we stood on the bring of America The Titanic, we coined the word “Debtberg” which, as projected, rolled over and caused the Housing Bubble to collapse.

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Jobs Report: What Really Matters

The Economic Outlook for the balance of this month couldn’t get much better.

For one, an increasingly unpopular president ought to be held in check by an incoming opposition congress, starting next month.  While this won’t be good for social issues (since both parties show up at the same paymaster window in Washington (staffed by the K Street Mafia), it will likely mean nothing (big) will get done.

And stability is something business likes.  A lot.

Going into this morning’s Employment Situation Report, the market has been holding near recent highs, the price of oil seems to be stabilizing around $66-$68.  Everyone knows that deflation is still out there, but as we explained earlier this week, when things like re-leasing previously leased cars (you can now lease the lease-return cars) the hyper-optimization of the auto industry seems to be sure to push auto sales to more highs, yet.   Even if we hit the skids in the new year and layoffs bounce off historical lows.

Economically speaking, it’s like we’re all passengers on the Titanic and we have all rushed up on deck to admire the field of icebergs which have been going by.  One was named AIG, but we got by that one, a small one was named Madoff, and there’s a group of bergs called the “naked short-selling” bergs, yet none of it seems to matter.

While following the ice breaker Dodd Frank, we seem to believe nothing can go wrong.  But when one of the architects of complex financial instruments says the Dodd-Frank didn’t really clear any of the ice ahead, you should take notice. 

Yet most don’t and won’t…such is the nature of the extraordinary popular delusions of crowds.

But not without reason.

There is just enough evidence that growth is returning to keep even the most skeptical over on the long side of the markets. 

I’ve been hinting at a further decline in the unemployment rate this month for a while so let’s fast-forward to this morning’s press release:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 321,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains were widespread, led by growth in professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and manufacturing.

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Coping: With the Predictive Power of Dreams

Before we get into some of the most fascinating work of the National Dream Center (on their outlook from 4-weeks ago) for Hawaii to be hit with a big something this weekend, a personal note first.

As you know, I have dreams now and then which seem to hold predictive content.  Perhaps the most detailed example was under “Irwin Allen’s Dreams” which accurate described many aspects and attributes of the Gulf Horizon oil rig disaster in he Gulf of Mexico some 18-hours before it happened.

This morning I had another one of those odd dreams and I’m not sure what it meant, but there were two physical features of the dream that were most curious.

The first involved an airplane flying and it had something to do with three mountains.

The mountains are three progressively higher peaks, with A being the lowest, B the mid-sized one, and C being the largest and (significantly?) the most rugged.

The problem ahead was for an airplane that would be taking off from the runway, traveling right to left and then following the flight path indicated between the smaller mountain and the middle-sized one, and then running into difficulty with sufficient altitude trying to climb over the largest mountain to the right…

Not that it is meaningful… just a curiosity and something to be aware of:  Plane trouble in mountains on departure from somewhere.  Green, rounded and jagged mountains.  Or not.

Side Note:

Both Elaine and I had extremely intense, vivid dreams last night – in another part of mine there was a visit to a coast with a mysterious (unexpected, unseasonal) fog.

The oddity?  Zeus the Cat, our Editor in Chief, was full of piss and vinegar this morning in a most unusual way.  You know how cats will sometimes get that “Wild-Eyed” look to them?  He was chasing imaginary critters all over the place…very strange behaviors for this animal – never seen it before in the house to this degree.

But that gets us to another project to hand off to Chris McCleary who has taken up the www.nationaldreamcenter.com project:  In addition to running language bots against the dreams people have, would it be possible to add an “intensity scale” so dreamers could, with a click, rate their dream intensities?

The reason for suggesting this line of inquiry is what?  The damn cat.

It seems intuitively true that there may be a cycle to people’s dreams.  A time of moon phase, maybe the location of a planet, or something on that order, which seems to reduce the veil between knowledge/visioning while in the sleep state and when the most intense dreams take place.

My personal “hot zone” for dreams seems to run from full moon to third quarter, and sure enough, full moon time, so the arising vivid dreams is not so unexpected.

Wikipedia has this quickie course in “lunacy” as in lunatic

The term lunatic derives from the Latin lunaticus which originally referred mainly to epilepsy and “madness” as diseases caused by the Moon.[3] By the fourth and fifth centuries astrologers began to commonly use the term to refer to neurological and psychiatric diseases.[3] Philosophers such as Aristotle and Pliny the Elder argued that the full Moon induced insane individuals with bipolar disorder by providing light during nights which would otherwise have been dark, and affecting susceptible individuals through the well-known route of sleep deprivation.[4] Through at least 1700 it was also a common belief that the Moon influenced fevers, rheumatism, episodes of epilepsy and other diseases.[

I have known a fair number of “out there” people in my life, running into them both as real nutters/crazies on the one hand, or those who express as gifted/geniuses, particularly in music, on the other.  One of the rewards of being a long-time professional journalist.

What comes through when you interview such people is that their worldviews are, for lack of a better term, “canted” this way or that.  If you think of human consensus as a compass needle that tends to point in a single direction, these people express views that may be anywhere from totally on track to 90-degrees (and in many cases orthogonal to) the generally way humans convince one another to behave.

In other words, to make the “herd of animals” analogy, these would be the critters on the outer edges of the herd, tuned in to a different kind of sensing that the rest of the herd.  Depending on their behavior, the rest of the herd might move this way, or that, in regard to a particular “danger” – or, in the case of non-violent or prophetic thinkers – away from new knowledge which “the herd” doesn’t want to (or have an ability to) come to terms with.

Ergo, date-stamping  the dream date becomes important and while each dream has a “posting date” the fact is that I’ve read many dreams in the Dreambase (which is what you call a database of dreams, right?) that were stamped with one date (posting) yet often referred to a dream from a different date.  Most are a couple of days, but I saw a few as old as 2-5 years which would seriously skew the data.

Hawaii’s Near Miss

Long-time subscriber Teresa in the Philippines sent a note this morning which ties into the discussion of dreams:

“Hi George, it’s been a long while since I’ve communicated.  This is to let you know another super typhoon headed our way in the next day or two.  We still have not gotten over the “Yolanda” that hit us in the South especially, Tacloban last year. 

This typhoon, “Ruby” is 100 MPH more powerful  than last year’s. If the Philippines is still afloat after Sunday,  we will let you know.

From the Philippines Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical website, we can see how the Philippines will be smacked hard this weekend by Super Typhoon Ruby.

Maybe Monday Teresa could check back with us on an update, as many people are interested to find out how this typhoon compares with other ones of recent vintage.

One of the more fascinating questions (which puts us up into the timeframe of two full weeks, maybe three from now is what happens if this bad boy heads into the subarctic and then ricochets off as another “polar vortex” like the recent storm did a month and a half, or so, back from Hawaii up to the Arctic and then bouncing down onto Canada and the US with record cold…

How the DreamCenter Fits All This

Remember their warnings about Hawaii?  Well, in dreams, one lush set of tropical islands looks pretty much like any other.  A note from DreamCenter director Chris McCleary offers this:

Typhoon Expected in the Pacific

At a minimum, we already have a headline that fulfills today’s Red Alert. That makes sense based on historical timing, but there are still questions needing answers, and one of those questions is….wouldn’t this event take Hawaii off the table?

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You Know Markets Are in a Blow-Off Top When….

Glad I’m not the only one seeing it.

Just remember all our references to the Roaring Twenties and how we’re in the replay.

Then flip over to this Financial Times article that says the market has put in the biggest string of record sessions since

1929!

I don’t expect you to remember stocks that year peaked in September (3rd to be exactly) and then plunged in October, but from where this market finally gives up on its string of rallies, we keep counting 55-days forward.

Now, thanks to Grady at the www.nostracodeus.com project, we can see pencil in Iran action in mid-to-late April of next year.  If his date has any substance to it (April 19, more in “coping” below) then we can simply back-track 55 days and begin to eye February 23rd as when the markets should be hitting their all-time highs that should stand for decades.

Between here and there?  Ain’t got nothing to fear, but fear itself, as one quote has it.

There was a bit of good news in economic numbers yesterday, not the least of which was the chart (right) showing that there has been a major increase in hiring in the small business arena (employers of less than 500 employees).

Whether this is because three guys and a six pack, programming a new app constitutes a “company” I can’t tell, but any port in a storm, huh?

“What storm, Ure?”

Oh, the wild-ass deflation that has started to lay the seeds of the rig laydowns we talked about Tuesday.  And did’ja see where a gas station in Okie-lahoma has dropped gas down below $2-bucks…the first such instance since 2010 according to the report?

Still not convinced?  How about the ECB being unable to raise interest rates due to the crappy conditions in EU-land?  Hell of a note when even the banksters are having a hard time figuring out how to make a buck, even with access to free money. 

You knew that….you’ve just been told “It’’ ain’t so!”  ‘Cept it is, of course.  Your problem may be not casting your info nets far enough to fish up more truth.

Still in the Roaring Though

Press release on the Challenger Job Cut report is just out:

Downsizing activity by U.S.-based employers declined by 30 percent in November, with 35,940 planned job cuts announced during the penultimate month of 2014, according to the report Thursday from global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. The November slowdown comes just one month after job cuts surged 70 percent to 51,183 in October. The November total was 21 percent lower than the 45,314 job cuts announced the same month a year ago.

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Coping: With Taxes & Another Sign of “Renting Life”

There is a huge change underway in the world:  It used to be that the objective of hard work was to “own your life.”

Say you started off as a young person in the Great Depression (as some of our readers have):  Back then the idea was pretty simple – it’s the philosophy of our way of living, too – Own Everything Outright.

The reason for doing so should be obvious:  If you live on five acres of land, with some diligence and ingenuity, you can survive without assistance from anyone and that includes government.  All that needs to be done to keep government at bay is to obey laws and pay taxes on your property.  End of story.

Since the New Deal, however, government has become much more intrusive, not to mention soaring property and other tax rates.

One reason Elaine and I are reluctant to leave our little place in the woods is that 28.8 acres, a modular home, 40-by-40 shop/office building with it’s own apartment for the brother-in-law, and a 12×12 storage building costs us $843.63 per year in property taxes now that we get the senior discount.  Even so, last year it was still under $1,000.

On  our fact-gathering travels this year we talked to a lot of people in the different states along the way.  We’d ask about the cost of living, but mostly it comes down to how taxes are stacked.  In most states there is a property tax, sales tax, and in some even and income tax.  By the time you toss in county and city sales taxes, you can make up a simple tax index that explains a lot about the local cost of living.

When we looked as several properties we were shocked to see how Washington had a property tax that was on the order of $3,200 for most homes in the $200-300-thousand range.  Did you happen to notice how in the housing bubble collapse, property taxes didn’t come down accordingly for many people?

Still, the cost of living in our home here in  the outback is about $71 a month.  On Social Security that’s an acceptable number.  For people who bought the nice home of the beach in the northwest (typically taxed in the 4,000-6,000 range, you could be talking up to $500/month just to stay in your own home that you paid for.

Government’s your silent partner who will stab you in the back if you blink.

Still, in the wake of the Great Depression, people had a lot of this stuff figured out.  Property prices were cheap, and interest rates were reasonable.  Even so, a down payment of 50% wasn’t uncommon and homes were usually paid off in 10-15-years.  Of course, since America still had a lot of handcrafting and trade skills about, millions of people actually built their own homes.,

A couple of my relatives, including one late uncle in particular, who built fine homes…better than most builders would put in.  For about $15,000 in materials (not counting the labor) on e home I remember was sold for well over $100,000.  That home was one his family lived in while he built a newer home next door.

Thus, a man with some gumption and get-up-and-go could build a great retirement nest egg with some hard work and sweat equity.  Come time to retire, a person could sell the property on a real estate contract, without a bank getting a cut, an Bingo!  Retirement set for life with lots of money coming in from mortgages.

If there was social security, fine, but a man (or woman) who likes to work with their hands can easily build 3-4 houses in a lifetime, and develop a pretty good income stream that way.

This is how people thought in the Depression…and for fifty years following…..because it makes sense.

That’s a part of our history that is going away and the design of the PowersThatBe can be seen at many levels

First; in order to really shake the money out of people, you have to “de-skill” them.  Convince people that industrial skills lake carpentry, woodworking, metal smithing, welding, working concrete or tile, doing electrical and plumbing; all that is manual labor.  Then cast manual labor as bad.

Now you’ve got a government “three-fer” going: 

First, people won’t be able to support themselves in America, so it sets up the need to bring in immigrants to do work Americans are no longer willing, or able, to do themselves.  This, in turn, sets up social disasters in education, crime, drugs, and so forth, but that, in turn, means more jobs and THAT is a dandy excuse to collect more taxes.

Second thing that happens is the people move into smaller and tighter quarters in suburban areas which are then too small for people to support themselves on.  So now hardly anyone is allowed to build their own homes (we’re blessed this way) and as a result, government gets to set up licensing bureaus to issue permissions to bang a nail, install a wire, or toss in a new sink.  Permissions is a whole government industry that ranges from the Zoning folks, who have stolen your right to do anything you want if you own your own land, to the building inspectors who won’t let you work on even simple home wiring or construction, unless you pull a permit.

Then, since you probably don’t hold a general contractor’s license, you can’t do your own work on your own property…and strangest of all, it’s in these places that home prices go up the most, which means those governments are rewarded for permission-restrictions and they collect more what?  (Property Taxes!)

Thirdly, the requirements to hold a contractor ticket for most trades means industrial arts are not being taught in the schools like they once were.  You talk about a complete and utter disaster?  But government knows best:  It knows that independent people who assert their property and “King of their own Castle” rights wouldn’t put up with such things voluntarily, but then comes the Education Industry which parcels out student indentures for millions of students who will never work in the field for which they have trained.  There is NO market for Middle Ages History experts, except regurgitating the same facts to the next group of victims.

I don’t mean to start off on a sour note, like this, but Elaine and I went to the big city Wednesday to do a little shopping.

Sure enough, while listening to the radio on the way back to the ranch, we heard yet-another scheme to turn even more people into permanent “Life Renters.”

It was an ad to lease a used vehicle.

The ad pitch was pretty simple: 

“You know how a lease works:  A person leases a new car, rather than buying it.  But now, you can lease that recent model, low mileage car and the first owner will have taken the depreciation on it!  We call this program re-leasing.  And it allows you a much smaller monthly payment.  In fact, in order to get a car this cheaply, you’d have to take out a six-year conventional loan.  So why not just re-lease a car for a much smaller payment?”

The rest of the trip home, I just sat there shell-shocked.  America has lost its way Big Time when the idea of building personal equity (ownership) has been hollowed out to this degree.

Not that it hasn’t been tried elsewhere:  You remember, I’m sure, my previous rants about the dangers of the 40-year home mortgage.

But this is where America seems to be going:  We’ve gone from a fine idea to a population of 317-million asset-strippers in just a few generations.

People who  develop and personally hold equity have little use for Big Government.  On the other hand, people without two nickels to rub together are totally dependent on Big Government, right down to meals and housing.

In the past, the balance has been somewhat reasonable, but that’s quickly fading in the rear view mirror.  And with it, the America that once was.

What is the functional difference between democratic socialism and we have now?  I’m having a hard time seeing it.  And every time I pay taxes or hear an ad on the radio announcing yet-another-way to asset-strip (into more “rent-your-Life”) the blur continues to build until now it’s looking like the fall of the old Soviet Union was just a trick to push America down the same subtle agenda.

When you change from a Land of Personal Initiative to a Land of Permission, there’s a price. An d the price keeps going up as the level of government dependency is raised. And even more when new schemes to lower personal equity come along.

What disappears over time?  Oh, uh, just…uh….Freedom.

Futuring: Disaster in Q2 of ‘15?

Not to put too fine a point on it, but it we are building into a year-end market peak, then we should see a marvelous decline in Q1 that could be tradable, even by us reprobates who manage our own money.

We don’t often put glimpses of the future out there, but this note from chief programmer of the www.nostracodeus.com project, Grady,  seems to exactly fit with where some chart projects have things in free-fall:

We’ve been seeing indications that Iran would be going to war but we didn’t think it would be in support of the fight against ISIS. It is. Iranian Phantom Jets have been spotted doing bombing runs on ISIS targets in Iraq.  John Kerry cautiously welcomed the help this afternoon. [3 December 2014] It got us to wondering if it will have any effect in future nuclear talks with Iran. There will be more of Iran in this fight April 19, 2015

Markets almost always need a scapegoat.  My guess in some golden mushrooms would be a dandy distraction from a self-imploding blow-off market top.

But, that’s only a guess, for now.  Still,  Israel has made its “line in the sand” clear enough that sooner or later that’s bound to turn into a line in the glass.

You’ll notice I refer to that part of the world as where the Sand Peoples live.  Within a decade, tops, I reckon to change the reference to the Glass Peoples for this reason.

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Boats As Bug-Out Platforms

A reader request brings me back to one of my favorite pastimes of life:  Boating.  Specifically, he wondered, realizing that I lived on a 40-foot floating survival platform for more than a decade, what would I do in today’s world?  Which boat…details like that.

If I wasn’t 65?  Or, if I hadn’t built an ideal survival platform in the middle of the country which can be more self-sufficient than a boat?  These are incredibly complex discussions, but I want to share his question and show you some darn interesting things about boats and bug-out tools…many of which you may not know – even if you are a boat owner yourself.

But first the headlines and another peak at the blow-off top that’s ongoing here in the latter part of the Greater Depression’s replay of the Roaring Twenties.  We don’t have the flappers and prohibition, but lots of other social taboos of the more modern sort…it’s just the kind of thing we like to chew on around here…

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Did Malware Slow Today’s report

All kinds of computer treachery around here this morning…report prepared in skeleton form for later this week was twisted up into this morning’s and there’s been a flash sent out from government computer experts to businesses to keep an eye on things for a malware attack.  Server hasn’t been cl;earing cached data proper…all kinds of baldness inspiring crap going on.

Not like I’m alone though…

Sony Pictures is coming back up to normal operations after a devastating attack that left a lot of its operations exposed….

Oil and Energy Wars

We note that Russia is giving up on plans for a southern gas pipeline project, and while blaming Europe in the process, there is likely more to this.

The Wall St. Journal this morning report, for example, that Russia looks to be headed into a recession in 2015 and that’s the kind of thing that the West might look at with some satisfaction, in that it’s Russia punitive actions have really started to bite and bite hard.

The Global Game

Is pretty much unchanged this morning on the interest rate front. India is apparently looking to ease rates perhaps next year.  That might make for something of an economic rally.

There’s also a report that RBA (Australia) may lower rates next year, as well.  The problem with this is that such a decline would only reinforce what oil prices have been telling us:  Global deflation, not inflation is the big problem now.

This has tremendous implications for investors in things like precious metals:  Don’t dismiss our long-standing belief that as the world’s economies go into their last-gasp death throes that gold could sink well under $1,000 before printing money goes absolutely crazy in a few years.

Commodity prices have stabilized going into the open and there has been oil trading back up to the $68 range, but that doesn’t eliminate the “rig lay down” issue covered in Monday’s report.  Below a certain level ($60-$75 and we could argue that all day) putting in new rigs doesn’t make sense.

As one reader noted, when you hear ads on the radio to bring new investors into the oil and gas exploration business with hype about owning an oil well, you can almost bet more downside is out there.

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Coping: With the Lost Art of Adventuring

MY brother-in-law who lives in his own apartment on the property with us, and who is retired military (SF & Rangers) is getting the wanderlust again, and so are we.

I’ve been eyeing a weather window next week where we might be able to pick up some strong tail winds out of Texas and head west to Arizona to do some high country flying.  Panama has been half eyeing homes out in the Las Vegas area because none of us are exactly “retirement material.”

The house is approaching ideal but that doesn’t leave much to do.  A couple of days with a small dozer to put in a small lake, raise some fresh water shrimp and put in pasture for some beefs might work.  Time in the garden, too….but to what end?  We look for ends – great adventures as just such things to us tumbleweed types…

Travel and adventure is what life’s about.  Growing up in Arizona, both Elaine and Panama like to get out and hike.  And t’other day when we were talking about it, Panama mentioned how he wanted to be back in the West again, so he could pull off the highway (wherever) and just go hiking as he did in his earlier days.

In his military career, I thought he would have gotten his fill of hiking, especially after hiking 600 miles from Turkey toward Europe to catch up with his unit.  They’d been out practicing “go to ground” and he did it, umm, a little too well.  When no one could find him, they simply left. 

That’s the short version of the hike, but he’d had others. In our discussion, the idea of “pulling off the road and being able to walk for 10 miles…” came up.

Sadly. I told him of our most recent 6,000 miles drive a couple of months ago.  “Even in places where you’d think you could get out and hike,” I explained “There’s really not much of anywhere to do it.  Even in the wilds of southern Wyoming, heading west on I-80 toward Salt Lake from Fort Collins and Loveland, most every foot of land is now fenced, at least along the road.”

To be sure, that’s a stretch, but over 2/3rd’s of Wyoming looks fenced from the freeways, at least.  And if you park your car by the edge of the road, it’s likely not to be there if you return in much more than 3-4 hours.  Police don’t want derelicts left by the road, so it becomes a tag ‘em & bag ‘em.

Not at all like camping trips in the 1950’s when barbed wire was rare in the BC interior where we waded through brush to fly fish pristine lakes.

We’ve seen some places where you can still get out and walk, like West Texas, but even here the art of exploring is quickly fading.  For one thing, if you do it within a hundred miles of the border you’re likely to stumble into either CBP units or weed walkers and coyotes.

Up north, Utah and Wyoming, if you can find a break in the barbed wire, there’s still a lot of public land around, but access to the public is being systematically denied.  Access permits, fees, scheduling of hikes (as in the Sierra)…it’s all a gigantic change from open/natural to confining around the edges.

Worse, I hear from friends and relatives up north, that barbed wire sales are still brisk in places like the northern wilds of British Columbia and even Southeast Alaska.  Time was when a salmon troller, of the sort that used to work the 34-40 foot double-enders out of Seattle’s fisherman’s terminal back in the day, could simply winter-over in Southeast Alaska. Ever see a Columbia River Bowpicker?

The hardier, and single Alaska fishermen used to  pull into an inviting cove in the lee of an island, go ashore and build a woodpile, keep the small marine wood stove on the boat going more or less continuously.  For food, there was plenty in the cove, the case or three of Del Monte fruit cocktail would last until you went off to the nearest settlement for provisions.

Storms would come through, blow themselves out, and there was big game if you wanted to clear and smoke it.  Halibut and other seafood was easier.

Point is, back then America had a frontier.  I don’t know where the frontier is, except Southeast Alaska.  There are big open areas in the upper reaches of the Yukon, too, but places to explore without wearing thermal everything?  Ha!

Between privatizations, keeping the public off public lands, and septic requirements for boats, life at the fringe is getting to be just a damn nuisance.  Regulations galore and that means inspections and permissions….

The problem is people.  We have too many of ‘em.

In 1970 there were 3.7 billion people in the world.  I’d been out of high school for several years bv then.  A man like Panama, who’s a bit older than me, remembers the world as about 3-billion people and damn few of them were out trying to hike “public” or just vacant lands around Arizona’s Mogollon rim, or even once you got outside of Tucson 10 miles.  Hell, even I remember that one.

Today, world population is just a shade under 7.3 billion people.  And population is still growing by 75-million a year. 

To put that into perspective, that would be like adding everyone in Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, and Houston (16.7 million) and doing it 4 1/2 times.  That’s why world ends badly, more’n likely.

In the short time I’ve been alive, enough people have been born such that if they could be stood on each other’s head, their combined height about be the distance from where you’re standing all the way to the moon 17-times over.

So I just thought I’d mention this morning that growth in small dribs and drabs in person victory over some obstacle, or other.  But in larger doses, it becomes cancerous.

Back when the world population was much smaller  (a mere 1.6 billion people) Joshua Slocum sailed a small boat named the Spray around the world alone, becoming the world’s first solo circumnavigator.

In 1899 he published his account of the epic voyage in Sailing Alone Around the World, first serialized in The Century Magazine and then in several book-length editions. Reviewers received the slightly anachronistic age-of-sail adventure story enthusiastically. Arthur Ransome went so far as to declare, “Boys who do not like this book ought to be drowned at once.”[16] In his review, Sir Edwin Arnold wrote, “I do not hesitate to call it the most extraordinary book ever published.”

Adventuring, at least on the scale of Slocum, or those wintering over trollers and gill-netters in Southeast Alaska are part of a dying breed.

The poet Robert Service, himself a veteran of the Yukon (where he was a bank teller, not explorer) did manage nonetheless to capture the gist of it in his “The Men Who Don’t Fit In.”

   There’s a race of men that don’t fit in,

    A race that can’t stay still;

   So they break the hearts of kith and kin,

    And they roam the world at will.

   They range the field and they rove the flood,

    And they climb the mountain’s crest;

   Theirs is the curse of the gypsy blood,

    And they don’t know how to rest.

 

   If they just went straight they might go far;

    They are strong and brave and true;

   But they’re always tired of the things that are,

    And they want the strange and new.

   They say:  “Could I find my proper groove,

    What a deep mark I would make!”

   So they chop and change, and each fresh move

    Is only a fresh mistake.

 

   And each forgets, as he strips and runs

    With a brilliant, fitful pace,

   It’s the steady, quiet, plodding ones

    Who win in the lifelong race.

   And each forgets that his youth has fled,

    Forgets that his prime is past,

   Till he stands one day, with a hope that’s dead,

    In the glare of the truth at last.

 

   He has failed, he has failed; he has missed his chance;

    He has just done things by half.

   Life’s been a jolly good joke on him,

    And now is the time to laugh.

   Ha, ha!  He is one of the Legion Lost;

    He was never meant to win;

   He’s a rolling stone, and it’s bred in the bone;

    He’s a man who won’t fit in.

 

Seems a bit odd to be writing a farewell to the Frontier.  After all, there always is one.

But the frontier of today is a line of code, an algorithm, a compiler, or may be app.

Something’s lost though, something old school and irreplaceable.   The difference between cold saltwater spray in the face when it’s 40-degrees out and the wind’s piped up to 25 out of the northwest, and having a breakthrough insight into a coding problem is a difference of day and night.

Technology is taking us to the land of non-physicality and I don’t like it.

Worth mentioning to the new generations that don’t write.  In fact, the whole idea of adventuring can be seen sinking into the horizon when it was reported last month that children in Finland will no longer be taught to write.  Instead, they will master keyboarding and mousing.

In Engineering terms, this begins to set up society for a massive epic fail:  When the power goes, so will the people.

And that is why adventuring matters.  It’s the natural reservoir from which human persistence springs.

Climate Note

Reader Ray H. who sends me sometimes daily critiques of my thought processes (don’t tell him but there are none), mentioned this about climate change:

[You wrote]

Is Earth warming? Yes. It from cutting down rainforests and burning off vegetation that used to cause more vertical air mass rising, which in turn brought rains and staved off desertification?

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