We have some new data to go over:  International Trade and Productivity in a sec, but before we launch, let’s consider some things: Russia is still moving arms into position opposite Ukraine. China is expanding into the Atlantic, may have container missiles, and Taiwan is as good as gone, as we see it. Then we … Read More

Honestly, very little has changed in the past 24-hours since our last Big Picture of coming events. Russia and the West are pouring war materiel into Eastern Europe. China is still whipping up anti-American sentiment. Markets are getting worried at a deep core level. And above all, 2022-2024 is shaping up as a period when … Read More

This is long.  This is real.  This is important.  Bear with me. My first real “news report” was done back in 1969.  Over half a century ago.  Sure, there have been gaps in the reporting (for serious management jobs and degrees), the love of “knowing news first” but doing it right never leaves. Which is why … Read More

We take a pause to consider human predictability and that of markets.  It occurred to me this week that we might be able to look at human behavior in an Elliott-like manner, so this morning we put on the psychological beanie and head for the couch.  With the requisite golden scarab. First, though, the usual … Read More

Surely, there are not more relevant and useful things sprouting from the Digital Trean of Knowledge, are there? Jobs: Up (But be skeptical!) Let’s see how the Bureau of Labor Statistics pretends the economy is doing: “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to … Read More

We’re set for a rally today.  But no wonder! Ure broke his “no day-trading” or “index sniping” and bagged a better than 2.7% gain in the process.  I’m also willing to bet our “down under” bear-lover Len had a pretty good day, as well.  Since the Lockstralia market was down 21-odd points. Lockstralia is a … Read More

We don’t need to wait for the New Year to show up; we can extrapolate several ways to plot this (bad) movie and make our plans accordingly. Which is fine, because with TurboTax shipping and the balance of 2021 expenses and income pretty-much known, we should be nearing a position where – as threats come … Read More

No surprise that when you puff-up the monetary base of a country (by 28%) that inflation will show in housing prices.  No, sir.  No rocketry school needed for that calc: YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.5% annual gain in September, down … Read More

OK.  So, Omicron is reported to the WHO on Nov. 24 (Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (who.int)) and we get around to turning off some – but not all – air travel on Nov. 29th??? Anyone want to guess how many planes with how many virus shedders landed at how many airports … Read More

The big news around isn’t markets set for a “dead cat bounce” today.  Instead, it’s the return of Mr. Ure’s tractor to 100% with the stump-jumper back in place. I’ve sworn-off fits of day-trading until several major projects around here are done.  Hard to do ranch improvement and build-outs (like decks and new rooms) when … Read More

With the one-day delay in turkey overdosing (the second effort was fabulously successful – 2 lbs. worth of personal weight gain, lol), there was enough tryptophan load to keep my blood pressure and motivation on the zero peg most of Saturday. Made a few Christmas scribbles before addressing a tractor issue…plotted my revenge against conformity.  … Read More

Not of a bull market, but the entire silliness of global civilization. Not solely because of the Omicron version of virus, however.  Our “reality” – which you can think of as the Second Tower of Babel – is what the Internet provides. For the past 50-thousand-odd years, it has been a “nice” goal to have: … Read More

Oh, God.  This was supposed to be a simple column, few words, and a return to non-destructive pillow testing.  That’s toast.  Markets are edging back out on the ledge and for people not clear in the Big Picture, Complexity stands ready – jaws agape – to bite the world on its ass. Today, some serious market … Read More