Simplified communication reflects a tribe of simpletons is our origin point this morning.  Because – importantly – big thoughts with important nuances may not be easily abbreviated. The urge to abbreviate is driven by multiple factors, too:  time, laziness, and “normed down convention.”  Thing is, the “idea simplification business” carries many hidden risks.  Not the … Read More

Once again – I do this every month, or so – I am promising shorter columns because there is so much to do around here. To the top of the inbox, post haste! Inflation Data As we explained previously, when the economy is skittering along the effective lower bound (of interest rates) it’s not hard … Read More

There are seldom days when the Collisions of Complexity becomes clearer.  Because we find ourselves, at click-time, staring into the abyss of the bad movie Global War trailer as early as this weekend. Important to understand (Big Picture stuff here) how contradictions can be useful in several ways, during times like these.  Three examples: In oratory … Read More

A focus on the Environment today following our outlooks for the basics of food, water, and shelter.  These were in the first part of our Annual Forecast series. Our topic didn’t rate its own column in previous years.  But with energy, population, pandemic/plandemics about, more climate craziness, well there are limits approaching quickly. The differences … Read More

We have some new data to go over:  International Trade and Productivity in a sec, but before we launch, let’s consider some things: Russia is still moving arms into position opposite Ukraine. China is expanding into the Atlantic, may have container missiles, and Taiwan is as good as gone, as we see it. Then we … Read More

Honestly, very little has changed in the past 24-hours since our last Big Picture of coming events. Russia and the West are pouring war materiel into Eastern Europe. China is still whipping up anti-American sentiment. Markets are getting worried at a deep core level. And above all, 2022-2024 is shaping up as a period when … Read More

This is long.  This is real.  This is important.  Bear with me. My first real “news report” was done back in 1969.  Over half a century ago.  Sure, there have been gaps in the reporting (for serious management jobs and degrees), the love of “knowing news first” but doing it right never leaves. Which is why … Read More

We take a pause to consider human predictability and that of markets.  It occurred to me this week that we might be able to look at human behavior in an Elliott-like manner, so this morning we put on the psychological beanie and head for the couch.  With the requisite golden scarab. First, though, the usual … Read More

Surely, there are not more relevant and useful things sprouting from the Digital Trean of Knowledge, are there? Jobs: Up (But be skeptical!) Let’s see how the Bureau of Labor Statistics pretends the economy is doing: “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to … Read More

We’re set for a rally today.  But no wonder! Ure broke his “no day-trading” or “index sniping” and bagged a better than 2.7% gain in the process.  I’m also willing to bet our “down under” bear-lover Len had a pretty good day, as well.  Since the Lockstralia market was down 21-odd points. Lockstralia is a … Read More

We don’t need to wait for the New Year to show up; we can extrapolate several ways to plot this (bad) movie and make our plans accordingly. Which is fine, because with TurboTax shipping and the balance of 2021 expenses and income pretty-much known, we should be nearing a position where – as threats come … Read More

No surprise that when you puff-up the monetary base of a country (by 28%) that inflation will show in housing prices.  No, sir.  No rocketry school needed for that calc: YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.5% annual gain in September, down … Read More

OK.  So, Omicron is reported to the WHO on Nov. 24 (Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (who.int)) and we get around to turning off some – but not all – air travel on Nov. 29th??? Anyone want to guess how many planes with how many virus shedders landed at how many airports … Read More