A dandy day of Spring, Sunday.  Second day of spring is a lot more “iffy.” Let’s begin with economic matters, especially the Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator which is just out: “The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved down to +0.51 in February from +0.59 in January. Three of the four broad categories of … Read More

Everyone has a messy shop, to one degree, or another.  I’m just more guilty than most because of my youth. See, my Main Hobby was ham radio.  When you work on a radio, you do whatever repairs and adjustments are needed.  Then seamlessly slide into playing with it.  There’s no logical “break in the action” … Read More

Seriously – in like a Nostradamus-like way?  Are they leading indicators of Life on Earth, overall?  Then head for the shelter. We will attempt to unravel at least a corner of this fall of yard in this weekend’s review of our Aggregate Index’s recent activity.  While points to a recent date and may be telling … Read More

Notwithstanding my complete lack of mental health credentials, I figure with the world gone as “crazy as it has” it’s safe for anyone to “hit the couch” and see who’s nuts. As reports from the war zone run to Russia’s combat losses in Ukraine exceed 14,000 troops (ukrinform.net), our west L.A. *(Century City) [backup] consigliere … Read More

But, before we wheel out the white board and play huff-the-marker, a number of housekeeping economic reports to dispense with: Retail Sales: Remember, this is a dollarized report.  So, we could have price increases – not actual consumption levels – account for virtually all of the (purported) increases. Then we stir in half a cup … Read More

Yeah, sure, the headline is? “The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these … Read More

Where is “Beyond Prepping” these days?  What will the world look like in 10-years?  Will there be some “hot new thing?”  And – with all that, how do we advise our children on investing, saving, and what will that world be like? No simple answers here.  Not with interest rate roulette coming up this afternoon … Read More

I’ll save the more erudite discourse for Peoplenomics tomorrow.  Because those readers are more likely to find topics like Hysteresis in Financial Decision Making quite interesting. The general ides, though, is that of lag-times as the Future rolls into view. We are seeing this play out right now in Ukraine. The Ukrainians do X (cut off … Read More

It’s National Be Late for Work Day! If you haven’t done it?  You owe it to yourself to be an hour late (due to Sunday morning’s time change) at least once in your life. A typical boss will not accept the excuse “Time change?  What in God’s name are you talking about?  Sun came up at … Read More

Our current ShopTalk project is coming along just great.  It’s the 10 X 20-foot vegetable garden add-on to the side of the recording studio. This week, I got serious about the “finishing touches” and – if you worry about radioactive leftovers – here are some of the design parameters that have fallen into place. Although … Read More

The flavor of global socialism driven by computational engines is on the verge of break-up.  Not only based on events in Ukraine, but due to the lack of workable global governance to resolve regional issues.  Read: Ukraine, Taiwan, Syria, and so forth. This morning a few comments on how this could go – plus its … Read More

Enough of Ure’s long-winded scribbles. Standby to learn something. Today, absent much economic data to drive the mania, we’ll lay out the (simplified) Kondratiev War just ahead.  And explain why you are confused.  One step at a time. There is a “War Cycle” Socioeconomics is a not as “clean” as digital (on-off, high-low) logic.  It’s analog … Read More

You may not have much of a memory when comes to bio-weapons development.  Maybe it was “burned out” of you in the Covid debacle. Yet there exist many claims that the US has – through corporate proxies – engaged in bioweapons work in Ukraine and other FSU states. For example, in 2018 a detailed report, … Read More