In long wave economics, our main forte, we are in a lazy holding pattern. The market could continue on up, but to do so would require the recent highs of the past week be exceeded and we don’t see that at the open this morning with Dow futures down 25 and broader indicators saying it should open down 50 (or more).
We had the big decline in January-February, and ever since, we’ve been digging out of the hole. Still, as we advised subscribers to Peoplenomics Wednesday, now is a dandy time to wait for events rather than play in the middle of the financial freeway.
Which – other than mentioning this is index option expiration today, and we may see a move one way or the other tomorrow, so commercials can buy dinner, there’s little more than the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook to talk about…
(Continues below)
It looks like this:
The diffusion index for current general activity edged 1 point higher, from 22.3 in March to 23.2 this month (see Chart 1). Nearly 37 percent of the manufacturers reported increases in overall activity this month, while 14 percent reported decreases. The indexes for current new orders and shipments remained positive but fell 17 points and 9 points, respectively.
If that isn’t a clear enough picture, try this:
Meantime, when I updated our super-computer to the latest and greatest version of Windows 10, the opening screen was of a bunch of people on a bridge.
Gotta wonder if that is somehow predictive of what’s ahead?
Crooked Government, Leftist Crap
We were nearly shocked when The New Yorker this morning published and account of how ” A law-enforcement official released the documents after finding that additional suspicious transactions did not appear in a government database….”
This should make your hair stand on end. The lefties now figure they are above the law when comes to bashing Trump.
You see, it is not legal for anyone in government to just “on a whim because they’re worried” out confidential financial data.
We are, supposedly, a Nation of Laws and attendant to this are processes to protect privacy, and so forth.
Other than a Treasury Inspector General is on the war path and looking for the leaker, our fears continue to be that a) It will turn out to be one of the Deep Staters not-yet fired from the FBI and b) the whole sorry mess is being orchestrated by the Bolsheviks within ex-president Obama’s “Vichy government” which continues to orchestrate Trump obstruction.
Misleading the Public?
Let’s run through an example of news manipulation, thanks to a Washington Post story, fed, incidentally, to other publishers around the country. (It popped out of one of our news scans which included the SF Gate.)
“Trump voters warn him not to fire Mueller: ‘People would be suspicious'”
If you just read the headline as an input, it smells like the base supports Mueller. But, that’s not the case. A recent Monmouth University poll this month says support for Mueller is declining: “While a majority of Americans (54%) support continuing the special counsel’s Russia probe, that support level is down slightly from 60% about two months ago.”
Now, to the WaPo story: It isn’t until you are well into the story that it is NOT about the “Trump base” at all. It’s a focus group which was led by a Democrat pollster.
Worse, Emory University which “sponsored” the Tuesday night deal in a suburb of Milwaukee, has allowed the same “focus group series” to be used against Trump for political ends, before.
Here’s how a similar bash late August was presented in the Emory Wheel: “Frustration with Trump Revealed in Focus Group by Emory.” The focus group leader was not identified as a democrat partisan pollster, only as an “…NBC News and Wall Street Journal pollster...”
Then, last fall, the Washington Post rolled out “The Daily 202: Trump voters have buyer’s remorse in North Carolina focus group.” Post readers were assured, however, that ” Hart is a Democrat, but he plays it very straight when he moderates these focus groups and never tries to tip the scales. ”
Now, though it is revealed that the conductor of the “focus groups” is “…a longtime Democratic pollster.”
See how things leak out, in dribs and drabs?
As an old man’s luck would have it, I’ve actually engineered focus groups and sadly, they can be led to whatever conclusion the client *ir group leader) wants. This can be done through selection of participants (weak-will, group-thinkers are easiest to move around issues) and the question structure can lead to a conclusion. Especially, if you know how to spot group thought leaders.
Not saying this was done, but when you see stories like “Emory University conducting a focus group.” look closely, and the odds seem good (currently 100%) there’s a democrat in there somewhere.
Running things.
Remember this: If Trump isn’t booted out, we expect another “focus group” story in a few months, as it appears to be part of the regular “bash Trump” news cycle promoted by the Vichy Obamanistas.
One last thing: If you know any of the named participants, have them get hold of me. I’m dying to know how contextually accurate their quotes are….I know: Too much knowledge of news engineering, huh?
Our Own Focus Group
I just conducted a focus group here at the ranch this morning. Our headline results? “Texans don’t care about “Alyssa Milano: How I Came to Terms With My Anxiety Disorder.”
Time Magazine does. We have some ViseGrips we can lend ’em.
Monetizing the Dead
Say, bet you remember the Feb. 11, 2012 death of Whitney Houston, don’t you?
Well, now we spy “Whitney Houston was sexually abused during childhood, new documentary claims/”
Is there anything that isn’t being monetized, nowadays?
Land of the raving, home of a thousand genders…yessir, It’s just amazed people still want to come here. But that gets me to a great idea…
Instead of a Wall…
How about Trump publishes (in Spanish) simplified copies of the pension fund debacle being faced by America — explaining they will be on the hook for that when it comes due. Then, leave thousands of copies along the coyote trails crossing the border?
(rim shot)
OK, back to greed now, kids…
Bentonville Versus Bezos
Results of the latest round? “Walmart’s U.S. e-commerce growth rebounds, shares rise/”
The battle of “barbarians at the mall” continues.
With the coffee gone (what was in it?) we are done for now. Moron the ‘morrow, then…
” With the coffee gone (what was in it?)”
Was thinking all along, what did GU sniff?
Its called whistle blower
[-rest redacted by Ure]
The balance was redacted because in a previous post the commenter insinuated I plagiarize content. Bullshit. We don’t do that.
There’s no whistle blowing. Just a crooked government official with a political agenda. Until the leaker is named and prosecuted, it’s just another in the long line of “any day now, we’ll find a smoking gun crap” while the Mueller fishing expedition rolls on…
I sent the poster a personal email asking him to reply and he has not done so.
Now, he wants to defend illegal government disclosures against trust by an apparent felon, yet to be prosecuted and convicted.
Not here.
“any day now, we’ll find a smoking gun crap”
Exactly….
Any day now, Trump will find Obama’s real birth certificate. Or was that also a campaign slogan. :) like jailing Hillary.
Sounds like this Mark giving the rest of us Marks a bad name.
Whistleblowers leak illegal, immoral, or unjust process by government or industry, to OAG or the public.
Leakers release confidential information to the public, which is always a felony.
George, just listen to yourself: Deep state, corrupt FBI, Bolsheviks, Vichy government. And that’s just today. Stop messing around with those cute little cactus buttons out there on the ranch, rookie, and save a couple for us Californians. You know who we are — the ones with the legal ganja and HUGE budget surpluses. Ha. Ha. Best, Mike.
Maybe male liberals, to show their support for the Femi-nazis (a Rush Limbaugh term), should castrate themselves with a rusty spoon. In a few generation only conservatives will be left.
OUT OF COFFEE !!! OMG there will be chaos on the morning commute.
Oh My God Curtis….that’s not just chaos.. That’s a dam catastrophic event..
My heart goes out to you..
I usually keep some instant around just for an emergency that serious.
I am not sure why you are at all surprised at Trump bashing. Trump is the originator of the bashing technique. He started it all with his name calling of all the GOP and Dem candidates. He bashed Obama’s citizenship…he bashed Mexicans, Muslims, and continued through his presidency by bashing the entire media, Amazon and Jeff Bezos, Steve Bannon, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Richard Blumenthal, John O. Brennn, James Comey, Jeff Sessions, Iran, Little Rocket Man, China, Mika Brzezinski, George Bush, Jaeb Bush, Ben Cardin, Ben Carson, the city of Chicago, the Manufacturing Council, James Clapper, Bob Corker, Katie Couric, Mark Cuban, Bill de Blasio, 2017 Emmy awards, the FBI, Saturday night live, Alec Baldwin, Jeff Flake, Forbes, Fortune, Germany…wowww I could go on and on. I am only at the letter G. There are 459 different people that he has trashed.
So in the spirit of fighting fire with Fire…are you surprised that everyone is fighting back? I have said this before. His policies are ok…many are working…but his approach really stinks. He could have accomplished so much more by just playing nice. No…instead he wants to be that New York bully that everyone hates. The sore winner. This isn’t Art-of the Deal. It’s Art of the Schlemiel.
Those with eyes wide open can agree the Swamp is turning out to be an overflowing Sewer.
“There are 459 different people that he has trashed.”
Hrumph, he missed some…
IMO with the exception of his staff, your perspective is backwards. The trumpbashers are the ones taking the first shot. Trump just happens to be the first Prez out of the last eleven or so, who dares to defend himself. Most of ’em take pot-shots at him with a figurative BB gun, as befits their intellectual capacity; he shoots back with a blunderbuss, as befits his Queens upbringing…
Hell George we haven’t been a nation of laws in generations,we can’t even make an international agreement without breaking it before the ink is dry,look at what Bush and now Trump is doing with the laws both domestic and foreign,and the old worn out left right is nothing but a diversion scam to keep the people divided,and the sorry part is its worked…,!!!
Of what agreement do you refer…?
If the President has only bashed 459 of ‘dem crocs, maybe it’s time to call a professional plumber to flush the system.
You can buy any poll result you want! Samples taken will produce results that are “normally distributed!” That means most sampled results will be close to the “true” average (value) of the population 68.26% of the time. Then there are those results that are outside this average. Just keep taking samples until the result you want shows up! Its as simple as that. If someone questions how samples are taken, they will meet the “smell” test and will be honest. Its the final posted result that is dishonest.
In the sixties I used to laugh at TV ads promoting smoking. You see this doctor (actor) with a serious look claiming that “8 out of 10 doctors claim smoking is not bad for your health!” Is that a dishonest claim? Not really, the sample was skewed. The pollsters only interviewed doctors that smoked!
No matter what game or system is used, there is always someone that will figure out an “honest” way to screw with it!
There’s a political technique with a three letter acronym that I can’t remember. It’s about having focus groups and community meetings leading to agreement against common sense by charismatic types. These are often used to get support for eminent domain, highway realignment, new laws and other disrupting things that locals don’t like. They may have shills there to cheer for the preferred outcome. Usually there’s big money involved, and inside contractors.
It seems that the demo pollster guy is trying the same thing.
LIE
Good point, NM, I have seen this technique in action. We ALL saw a form of it in the Hillary campaign sleight of hand aligning with the media and hollyweird, and pollsters, non-stop pushing her candidacy, although it didn’t work.
Mark hasn’t live long enough to understand the cycles thoughts have weight and they come back at you and now you left with a determination of what to do with those thoughts that had wings that came back at you
That’s why teachers need to be in the universe that guide us, that is from point A to point C.
Like for instance they have no choice. Is a positive and the Catholic see is the negative 2 for psychic phenomena.
Are in a reference to they people who understand the background of a to c another words an adenoid differential to a kathiwade one’s positive ones negative but understanding how they interact with each other whether it’s all my new school scale or a grand scale throughout the Universe are in a reference to the people who understand the background of a scene other words and I know I’d differential to a cafe dunce positive once negative but understanding how they can direct with than each other weather it’s all of my new school scale Laura grants call throughout the universe
Good God! I am Catholic, and you are making absolutely no sense . . . take a deep breath and reflect on what you actually observe vs. what someone tells you what you ‘ought to’. I think you will feel much better!
Catholic was supposed to be cathode for c.
Anode for a.
Sorry about the mix-up there
Just about every other word on there is not the right word.
Hurrah for Michael Faraday!!
Focus groups are just like charts and graphs, you can make the outcome be whatever you want it to be.