I wasn’t going to write a long piece this morning, since it’s a holiday and I have many other things I’d rather be doing.
But please take the time to carefully read this morning’s “Coping” section and understand the case I’m making – namely that government is already heavily relying on ‘computational support’ as a precondition for major moves.
And in such a world, we may be seeing artificial intelligence throwing in suggested “actions” for the administration to take. Such a tie-in would explain why there was little functional different at the global level between the Clinton, Bush, Obama, and now in some regards the Trump administrations.
Take yesterday’s use of the Mother of All Bombs.
(There is also a Moab in Utah, so keep up with the class here…)
Sure, sure, message to China but more particularly the North Koreans.
But what’s more important in our view is the range of RSS feeds that are popping up that could be fed back into an artificial intelligence/artificial learning (AL) learning agent (LA) which might then feed forward into suggested “next moves” on the global chessboard. Sample some inputs with me…
Mother of All Bombs’ Killed Dozens of Militants, Afghan Officials Say
All of which gets me to thinking that if this kind of weapon use continues, we may have to rebrand ourselves and begin to public “The Daily Bomber” again.
My point is simply this: the MOAB was used, the intended message was to the NK’s and the Chinese. They seem to have heard.
But there is a runaway maniac on the loose in NK and he would love nothing more than to usurp Easter Sunday from Christians. For his idea of the Son has Risen is a little different.
For him, it would be the Son and his Sun have Risen.
Which leads to a discussion of the role of ego in the outbreak of conflict…to long for discussion today, but definitely something to roll around with any spare processor clicks you have.
Cost of Living
We normally would have led with this, but world events weigh heavily. And, as we expected Monday when we dropped out of a profitable long position in the market, there were lots of people “heading for the door” by Friday. To wit: The Dow closed down 138-points.
Being a Holiday in some states (like here in Texas) but not in the bowels of Washington, we do have the latest5 Cost of Living Data just unleashed by the Labor Department..
“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.3 percent
in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The March decline was the first 1-month decrease in the seasonally adjusted all items index since February 2016. A decline in the gasoline index was the largest factor, with a decrease in the index for wireless telephone services also contributing.
The energy index declined 3.2 percent, with the gasoline index falling 6.2 percent, and other major energy component indexes decreasing
as well. The food index rose 0.3 percent, with the index for food at home increasing 0.5 percent, its largest increase since May 2014.
The index for all items less food and energy fell 0.1 percent in March, its first decline since January 2010. The shelter index rose 0.1 percent, and the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, medical care, tobacco, airline fares, and
alcoholic beverages also increased in March. These increases were more than
offset by declines in several indexes, including those for wireless telephone services, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and apparel.
The all items index rose 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending March, a smaller increase than the 2.7-percent rise for the period ending February.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.0 percent over the last 12 months, the smallest 12-month increase since November 2015. The energy index rose 10.9 percent over the last year, while the food index increased 0.5 percent.
This fits right in with what we have been postulating: In a declining prices environment, the Federal Reserve may be ‘disinclined” to raise interest rates any more.
Indeed as we look at the 10-year bond trading Friday, we noted it was down to 2.23 – a nearly 2.8% decline for the day.
Again, another reason why we decided to step aside and sit with our (tiny) trading account in cash. No point playing on the freeway.
Leaves the Fed in something of a box canyon: After the close Friday came word that the Fed is jamming money into the system in a desperate attempt to ratchet up markets:
3 Months from Dec. 2016 TO Mar. 2017 M1 was going up at an annualized 12.9% (!!!) rate. However for the previous 13-weeks ending April 3rd, M1 was only going up at 9% annualized.
If they flood too much money in, the stock market will soar. But my sense is that ship has sailed and until we see moves above some targets it’s a fine time to be in cash and watch the accident on the way by.
But more for subscribers tomorrow…
News of the “Also Ran” Sort
NBC was shocked to find “31 Percent of Credit Card Holders Aren’t Redeeming Their Rewards.” You’re welcome to redeem them and mail ’em to us if you don’t need the dough…
Facebook is cracking down on “fake news” in France. We continue to encourage reader comments in the comment section following each one of our posts. We don’t profile readers…
Canada is looking to become the second country in the world (after Uruguay) to legalize weed. CNN is going into the dangers to the brain…didn’t mention the US Government holds patents on weed. The CNN piece did mention CBD’s importance as an anti-cancer drug…
I trust you’ve read the U.S. Government’s patent # 6,630,507?
“Cannabinoids have been found to have antioxidant properties, unrelated to NMDA receptor antagonism. This new found property makes cannabinoids useful in the treatment and prophylaxis of wide variety of oxidation associated diseases, such as ischemic, age-related, inflammatory and autoimmune diseases. The cannabinoids are found to have particular application as neuroprotectants, for example in limiting neurological damage following ischemic insults, such as stroke and trauma, or in the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease and HIV dementia. Nonpsychoactive cannabinoids, such as cannabidoil, are particularly advantageous to use because they avoid toxicity that is encountered with psychoactive cannabinoids at high doses useful in the method of the present invention. A particular disclosed class of cannabinoids useful as neuroprotective antioxidants is formula (I) wherein the R group is independently selected from the group consisting of H, CH.sub.3, and COCH.sub.3. ##STR1## “
This patent is assigned to the US Dept. of Health and Human Services.
Which, to us, shows the absolute arrogance of government: Taking a common plant that has been used since fire was invented and people started smoking…and claiming it is theirs. Crockashit, huh?
But that’s how governments roll, for you. See any legal CBD’s on the market? Naw…what would be the point of CBDs when they would run a bunch of dangerous Big Pharma meds off the market?
But don’t get me started…
You know…for a short column this morning, I’d say I’m doing as well as a government agency when comes to planning and implementation.
Makes me ‘rat proud…