Math or Eyeballs?

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For those not following the recent work here for subscribers, the short version  is that we have been hard at work on building a spreadsheet “Golem” in order to better advise our trades.

While we are not releasing our underlying spreadsheet, we have revealed more than enough information so that someone modestly skilled in the art could replicate (and maybe profit!) from our work.

Today, we resolve one last detail:  How to read the chart the system presents.  And oddly, the answer is found by understanding the wave forms of analog television.

After the usual charts and a few headlines…

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25 thoughts on “Math or Eyeballs?”

  1. Summer Bull or Bear Contest
    OPEN 6/6/18 Close 7/20/18 $10,000 grew to
    3X ETF BULL – 215.84 shares – SPXL $46.33 $48.51 $10,470
    3X ETF BEAR – 392.16 shares – SPXS $25.50 $24.19 $9,486

    Basically, the same as last week. This may mean the rally is stalling. Charts show a weakening, but it has not been confirmed yet.

    • Last chance to vote SUMMER BULL OR SUMMER BEAR. Contest ends 8/31/18. Reply to this post to vote.

      • Cheers ECS. Though I’m a permabear & know it should & will collapse, I can’t see it happen just yet. So, though we’ll pullback, will we be up or down at the end…. I’m going to say up please. Can’t argue with the trend I’m afraid. Cheers.

      • Sober – I would say I am a permabull. I did some selling before the summer to raise cash to take advantage of a summer decline which has not happened yet. Bye the bye, you are the only summer bull so far.

        Now I can use the summer cash for Golem, if I get the nerve to buy a 3x ETF Short.

  2. If the market confirms to a short strategy, I hope I have the nerve to invest in a 3x ETF Bear. Years ago a wise man told me, I never short a stock (before ETF’s & charting software), because if short a $60 stock, your maximum profit is $60, but if you buy a $60 stock, your profit is unlimited. The stock can go to $120, $200, $600, etc. Time is on your side with a long, but not with a short. But you must buy quality, no junk that a stranger recommended on a plane flight.

    • The logic applies only in the case the stock ever goes to zero.
      Even during the great depression it was hard to find stocks that lost more than 25% in a modest time…so a $60 stock down to $45. But if you were short 3X the gain would be on the order of 70-75%. If it goes to half you have a double, and so forth.
      A tremendous amount of what passes as stock market “wisdom” comes from people who don’t know what it’s like to play the real, balls to the wall, trading game. Oh, and a 3X on a $50 stock doubling is a 300$ return ($180) if you could find it.
      So when I do triples, long or short and catch a 3% move in a week, my (hopefully gains) would be 9%…
      It can go against you…which is why we spend so much time on the algos and charts….

      • Thanks George. Where else can a guy (or girl) get personalized feedback that could be worth $1,000’s for $40 a year.

  3. Thank God for flashbacks! I haven’t seen an analog TV waveform since we turned it off in 2009! :-)

    • You are one of the few people who will fully “get” what I was explaining in PN this weekend.
      All you got to have is a good sense of math and a broadcast engineering background…and a side of lava…

    • The green boxes indicate where we had (anomalous) very close to identical closes.
      And this is where the analogy to the “back porch” on an analo0g television signal comes in.

      You will note that the signal is not precise, but obviously good enough for home use. I back-tested and came up with annual that were unheard of. So I plan to go “hear ’em” now. As the data unfolds, the placement for a specific index may be meaningful but we will discuss that on the PN site. after the market bottoms this week or early next for this portion of the :”heartbeat.”

      Meantime, I was not kidding when I said the three posts on te4chnique will not be available anymore after 8.22 or so. This is a “thank you” to current subscribers and I may raise prices thereafter SIGNIFICANTLY to what PN should be priced at – maybe $600/year. Something on that order.Depending on how this project works out. If we put too many people in the financial lifeboat it will sink…so subscribers only. I plan to reward the long-=term subscribers by “being there for them”

  6. Comrades,

    Zeus Running Water dreamt of filtering the hypnotic noise if entering the Valley of Fear perchance the exit door leads in?

    I plan to watch more TV responsibly while still continuing to read “Rock Breaks Scissors: a Practical Guide to Outguessing and Outwitting Almost Everybody” by William Poundstone.

  7. Tomorrow will be an interesting day in the market.
    Chartwise, Stochastics are showing the beginning of a downtrend for longs, & the beginning of an uptrend for shorts. But neither has been confirmed by the Automatic Trend Line. Monday should give some insight to this.

  8. ‘Been a minute since I’ve seen that wave, too… First time I was probably four (bigbro was a LET), last was in the ’70s when I went from repairing TVs to repairing sportscars.

    I was glad to see you use the word “coincidence.” This tells me you tried your damnedest to prove it was, before you accepted it as a “phenomenon.”

    Now, a question: In your examination of the phenomenon, in what ways can either the Fed or a 3rd party event (like a war) cause the EEG to hiccup?

  9. Where is the instructions for the “G” Rock Thing? I want to build it!!!
    -MC

  10. An emotional response will be evidenced in a Fibonacci market response. The creative collective intelligent design will guide the market. lol

    Hope this wasn’t too circumlocutory, for you fabulous bunch of boys! lol

  11. Emotional doubt driven by an unconscious seeded guilt, will project low volume ratios, manifesting in a groundhog day algorithm scenario.

    buybacks – take the money and run.

  15. For self learning algorithms such as those used by the stock market, with bad/faulty data comes bad decisions. Low volume trading introduces quirks and misleading trends. These quirky trends become incorporated into the algorithms and are used to project future Fibonacci support and resistance levels. This can result in buy and sell rapid transactions being truncated, extended or worst rejected.

    Low volume trading by it’s nature of being a product of low level traders is susceptible to an emotional response. This emotional response injects quirky data. Short of introducing new code into the algorithms which introduces another level of complexity, that further muddies the analysis; nothing can be done to correct/alter the current rapid trading projections, sans a complete rewrite of the algorithms. Too verbose? lol

    Trade at your own risk, gamblers!

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