TL;DR: The odds of a market rally into tomorrow’s New Moon is possible. The war fronts are stable (bad). And GovDown may last until Turkey Day – My! What a fit!
Fly Me to the Moon?
Our consigliere, an otherwise rational tax attorney, able to leap tall CREs and LLCs, did a tremendous study of market cyclicity in 1979. As an up and coming CPA/Tax Lawyer sort. Anyway, point is that he noticed significant market peaks tended to happen around the New Moon.
Cue the AI:
“New moons marked the start of months for Babylonian and Hebrew calendars, while the Chinese term Shuò signals the first day of the lunar month. Mariners tied the dark Moon to spring-tide timing, and farmers treated it as a reset point for sowing cycles. In many traditions the unseen Moon is a hinge in time: a moment of deliberate pause before the first sliver of returning light sets the next month in motion.”
We will skip over the Mariners reference (31% chance of going to the Series) and drop right into the “sowing cycles” of farming, instead.
Profits have been growing but even with the blip higher at the open today we still have this mess on our hands from this historical standpoint:
As we were discussing on the Peoplenomics side of the house this weekend, the ultimate tone of the week (past New Moon) could be set by the fate of Europe. Which, so far this week is putting on a modest rally.
On the other hand? Gold is back sniffing around $4,300 on the Futures while Silver is holding over $50 and those made-up currencies backed by,…um…air? From kissing $104,000 Friday to making a hard charge at $111,000 this morning, if you like volatility, you’ll love this one.
For us? Our idea of a relaxing Sunday was sitting on the screen porch contemplating the Food Reactor project in the ShopTalk Sunday column. Which you did read, right? We’re still clinging to the idea that Durable Wealth – the kind you carry around between your ears (in one of the rare untaxed places left on Earth) is what matters.
Say, would it be too macabre to wonder if it’s OK to put a couple of pennies over the eyes before being cremated? You know, just in case? (Halloween is coming and with Stephen King dialing it back, we’re here to help weird along, don’tcha know?
Turkey Time!
We’ve been contemplating filing a lawsuit in Federal Court over the GovDown (government shutdown, if you’re new around here). Grounds? Consumer Fraud. See, here’s the logic:
We pay our taxes (and then some) all regular and auditable-like. But we also expect 100 percent of what we thought we were buying. (Being older, maybe we’re just…you know…funny that way…)
For all the belly-aching and whining – and stories like Lawmakers deadlocked as shutdown enters fourth week. If you waste your time on partisanship, you can sort media by which side they’re blaming for the mess. Liberal enclaves will cite the R’s as the baddies. (Rep. DelBene Blames GOP for Government Shutdown).
Maybe it was the second glass of wine last night. But, we sort of concluded that it’s much easier to play the right-left “on them” game than admit we generally elect worthless pieces of crap to higher office. (YMMV, but we’re not seeing much variance in the samples, right?)
Honestly, we STILL can’t fathom the Trump pardon in the “full diaper” Santos decision last week. Politics always Depends.
Where was I? Oh yes! When do we start getting tax rebates based on government non-performance?
No Kings and Performance
Ubofficially, anti-Trump liberals ginned up over $100-million for No Kings rallies this weekend.
But the real “snookering” of both remaining “normal people” was the headlines and hysteria about Camp Pendleton: I-5 freeway closed due to Marines anniversary event in Southern California.
Anyone from the area will tell you the gun emplacements are west of I-5 and the targets of east of I-5 and this has been going on for years. But, when you have Gruesome stalking the Oval, it’s somehow not surprising. This was about signage and timing as well as public IQ testing when comes down to it.
Still, that doesn’t stop the liberal media from bu8llhorning Nationwide ‘No Kings’ protest exposed the Trump admin’s key vulnerability: analyst – Raw Story. But just who was the “analyst” you’re wondering? Here; let’s put a dime in The Reality Machine:
“Brian Tyler Cohen, born in 1989 and educated at Lehigh University, built his reputation not in a newsroom but in the digital commons of YouTube and podcasts. His show, No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen, began in 2020 and quickly became a hub for progressive voices. By 2024, he was a New York Times best-selling author and a frequent MSNBC contributor. His reach is massive, his production slick, and his tone unmistakably partisan.
Cohen is less a journalist than a political performer—a skilled communicator serving a clear ideological mission. His “analysis” functions as affirmation for the liberal audience still nursing the trauma of the Trump years. He packages outrage into digestible clips, reinforces the moral high ground, and hands Democrats a rhetorical win each news cycle.
Calling him a news analyst is technically defensible—he analyzes news—but the essence of his work is advocacy wrapped in commentary. In the modern propaganda economy, he’s one of the left’s most effective amplifiers: articulate, relentless, and perfectly aligned with the narrative machinery that thrives on perpetual opposition.”
Hmm. Might have to take some indecent liberties with my resume, too. Marketing works as long as the fish are biting.
Hit the Snews Alarm!
Yes, kiddies, time to roll through the utter absurdity of life.
OK, we have been watching Trump ramp up against drug trafficking in Venezuela but now comes this: Trump to Increase Tariffs, Cut Subsidies to Colombia Over Drug Trafficking. Where is all this going? Well, with incursions into Mexico and now Venezuela, we can’t help but wonder if the Developer In Chief is planning to make a United States expansion into Central and South America next? Or is there something else at play?
For example? Well, how about China pulling on the rare earths choke collar? Which involves Colombia how?
“Colombia’s mineral map is being redrawn as geologists confirm promising deposits of rare earth elements—particularly in the departments of Vichada, Guainía, and Meta. Long overshadowed by gold and coal, these frontier regions host monazite- and bastnäsite-bearing sands linked to ancient igneous intrusions and weathered laterites. Early surveys suggest commercially significant concentrations of neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium—the metals essential for high-efficiency magnets, wind turbines, and electric vehicles. Political stability, improving infrastructure, and proximity to Atlantic and Pacific shipping lanes position Colombia as a potential Western-friendly alternative to Chinese supply dominance, provided environmental safeguards and indigenous rights are handled with more care than the nation’s historical resource rushes.”
What Trump is trying to ensure, least-wise seems to us, is protecting another one of our “soft flanks.”
Social Security Budgeting Outlook: Social Security’s 2026 COLA Forecast: What Retirees Ages 62 to 80 Should Expect TL;DR? figure 2.7 percent which is the hot number on the street for now. But with GovDown no official number until late this week (or next).,
Around the Ranch: Annual Wellness Check
Elaine and I go in to our PcP (no, not angel dust – at our age that’s a Primary Care Provider). I’ve been writing a standup routine for it.
“Do you Feel Safe at home?” With the TV on or off?
Then comes the memory test: “Can you remember three words—apple, penny, table?” Sure, but can you remember where you parked the car? Or that you had a car? Or, if married, who drove here?
“Any trouble dressing yourself?” Only when the waistband argues with breakfast. Or, “Those pants look like crap on you, George…” Hmm.
They always finish with, “Do you have any firearms in the house?” I tell them, “How do you want me to score the nail gun and the staple gun in the shop? Do grease guns count…come on, give me some guidance here. Besides the number of rounds if we can red nail loads would make me sound like a terrorist cell…”
By the time we get to “How’s your mood? Do you get depressed?”
I’m thinking—depends on the market, the moon, and how long the wait is at the pharmacy. It’s like open mic night at Medicare—except they’re holding the clipboard and you’re just trying to keep your co-pay from heckling.
“Your blood pressure’s a little elevated today.”
“Yeah – tough room…”
Write when we’re over Monday, I plan to rehearse all day.
George@Ure.net
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G.A. STEWART: Donald J. Trump is empowered by the hubris and power of Israel, his own ego, and the perception of his place in history.
August 20, 2025
Trump calls Netanyahu and himself ‘war heroes’ for striking Iran…
“War Heroes“, please give me a break; too many good people have earned that title the hard way. Maybe Trump should start wearing his medals on his dinner jacket like King Charles III.
The Donald J. Trump one-dollar coin put it into perspective for me.
Donald J. Trump has an ego that never seems to be satisfied… From his Nobel Prize dreams, to wanting to paint a new Air Force One with the Trump colors, and then to the issuing The Donald J. Trump $1.00 Coin.
When I saw the coin, I immediately thought of its two-headed nature and the Roman god Janus.
https://theageofdesolation.com/nostradamus/2025/10/19/janus/
“Trump one-dollar coin ”
A.I. says dictator leaders frequently put their faces on their countries’ money as a form of propaganda to project absolute power and cultivate a personality cult.
Necromonger
..https://youtu.be/etxQGtbD7i4?si=d4wu2nGJ_AjHcwer
John Rubino: While Everyone’s Distracted… Most people have no idea what just happened.
On October 16th, 2025, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York quietly injected $8.35 BILLION into the financial system through something called a Repo Operation, and that’s just what they admitted publicly. Nearly 80% of that was backed by mortgage-backed securities, not Treasuries.
Translation: the banks are running out of cash, and they’re now pawning off their riskiest assets just to get short-term liquidity.
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/10/the-u-s-quietly-bails-out-its-banks/
pardon me , Mr Ure,,,
“Honestly, we STILL can’t fathom the Trump pardon in the “full diaper” Santos decision last week.”
from a simple search on Brave,,,
“A commutation, which is what former U.S. Rep. George Santos received from President Donald Trump, reduces or ends a person’s prison sentence but does not erase the underlying criminal conviction.
In Santos’s case, the commutation released him from federal custody after serving less than three months of his more than seven-year sentence, but he remains a convicted felon.
He could still face financial penalties, though Trump’s clemency order appears to clear him of further fines, restitution, probation, or supervised release, according to the Justice Department’s pardon attorney.
In contrast, a presidential pardon would forgive the offense and typically restore civil rights, but it goes further than a commutation by effectively nullifying the conviction.
Trump did not issue a pardon to Santos, only a commutation, meaning Santos’s conviction for wire fraud, aggravated identity theft, and other charges remains on his record.
Trump justified the commutation by calling Santos a “rogue” who was “horribly mistreated” in prison, particularly due to long stretches in solitary confinement, but emphasized that the decision did not absolve him of guilt.
Analysts confirm that because it was a commutation and not a pardon, Santos is not exonerated.”
Well, pardon ME. I want to know the WHY behind it – and it’s just not fitting with what I thought I’d voted for.
Brokeback “mountaineers” always stick together,just like Burds of a Feather.
Just a lil “what, what’ tween friends is all – https://youtu.be/w7BzqsMSy1s?si=ldAFoabe2rGXfUJo
well I don’t know why,,, just that is NOT the better gift of a PARDON,,, when over half of CONgess is guilty of greater crimes, it seems to be demoncrat talking point in the news feed,, the commutation that is,,,
but Hunter got a actual ‘pardon’ signed by slo joe, pardon for UNconvicted crimes against America
Trump recently refered to Rand Paul and Massie as liddle”,,, that is a pointed finger calling them pedos,,, in my monkey brain is the hopful thought of needing more prison room for incoming politicians, both sides demons and rinos
politics,,, go figure,,, but it is pig wrestling dirty
We be mightily miffed over the Tarde War Talk per your chart. There are too many tardes so if a few fall in war, well, so it goes. We should _not_ be talking about these Tardes. National Security and all. ~~ Egor ~
Pure oint? ( gotta patent a way for IA to typi makos)
Heads up G-Doggy,
Prediction.- soonly be barking at Moon.. Lunacy I tell ya, lunacy.
New Moon on Monday ? – https://youtu.be/m3a4OTh2Y8w?si=UEbFYrcwFF8AF5Hz
..”fire dance thru the night”. NERP, Tuesday.
Best to take advantage of this awesome NRG..for next 10 Days after that NRG will be at its strongest. Just thinking about it, will be enough to get Process going.
One big reason for collecting as much of this NRG as possible ? The stars say November is going to be a real bitch. Merc retro will be Least of our problems in NOV.’
November = Ureanus will be out of control. Sure do hope that does not carry over to lower GI area/issues.
Nov 5 is Full Moon(door closes) – Ureanus will tightly clash with the planet of War- enlil/setes planet, MARS.
Could be explosive, Ureanus will also clash Mercury, and good ole Mercury rules….wait for It………………………………………………………………………COMMERCE..rutrow.
Lost planet Airmen – better call Commander Cody, he will know to do.. https://youtu.be/lpK1ylZboyc?si=WOY-oZ3MeW68rO7i
“government shutdown”
The shutdown could possibly be a 4DTrump plan.
Without the Feds fluoride dosing may finally stop. Nobody in accounting to pay the Vaxx vendors so those could end. Without the Department of Education staff getting paid educational control defaults back to the states just like Trump said.
Trump still has ICE and DHS keeping us safe.
Fictional drama?
Diana was looking over my shoulder yesterday morning while I scanned Shoptalk. Hurry up or we’ll be late for church she says. Well if we didn’t have to drive an hour to get there. Anyway on the trip she asked me about the dishwasher project. Since we just had to replace ours there is a dead one sitting in the middle of the shop waiting to be resurrected into who knows. I think it’s a dandy idea. “Don’t even think about bringing that thing back into my kitchen. You’re not going to start growing things there again”. While she is looking at her new tablet that was supposed to be a Christmas present for one of the grandkids she tried to show me a video about using one to make a pet washing station. I’m driving, can’t look now but I can see you trying to stuff a 100lb Anatolian or Repro, (Recon look alike who joined the ranch a while back.) into one and hitting the start button . “You’re so not funny, Cowboy.”
Stay safe. 73
“Annual Wellness Check”
I recently told the Docs front office staff, when they said “sir, you missed filling out and signing several pages”, that I don’t do surveys like those. Told them as the patient, I get to ask the questions that are a concern to me. They also wanted my consent to record the whole audio of my visit with the doctor to better serve me in the future, I refused to give consent! They weren’t too happy with me. The doctor never brought it up. He’s a good guy and understands.
re: “Douyin” (Shaking Sound)
Folks,
Former UK PM Boris Johnson is perhaps not expected at the upcoming Ukraine-Russian peace talks in Hungary.
“House & Garden” noted his purchase a year following the failed 2022 efforts of the £3.8 million Brightwell Manor situated in Brightwell-cum-Sotwell, Oxfordshire. A new swimming pool had been approved despite concerns for the local newt population who travel in armadas. Apparently a moat on the property surrounding a former castle of King Stephen, a grandson of William the Conquerer, had been filled in following the civil war and Anarchy of the 12th century.
More recently a famous 20th century Manor resident had been the Very Reverend W. R. Inge KCVO FBA, Dean of St. Paul’s Cathedral and author. Amongst his many works is “The Fall of the Idols” published in 1940.
Amazon’s Ring to partner with Flock, a network of AI cameras used by ICE, feds, and police
Amazon’s surveillance camera maker Ring announced a partnership on Thursday with Flock, a maker of AI-powered surveillance cameras that share footage with law enforcement.
https://techcrunch.com/2025/10/16/amazons-ring-to-partner-with-flock-a-network-of-ai-cameras-used-by-ice-feds-and-police/
(“Elaine and I go in to our PcP (no, not angel dust – at our age that’s a Primary Care Provider). I’ve been writing a standup routine for it.”)
lol lol lol…this mornings fun activities… last week I had to cancel my primary care provider appointment do to the part time job hours..the scheduler called to make a new appointment.. the VA…the hour she said was unbelievable.. an appointment at a time they do have open for early morning surgeries.. I paused and said ..are you sure that time..yes.. Is the VA healthcare is still run by the government isn’t it..yes… you do know its ran like a government office no one will be there. they won’t even have the lights on yet.. nope that’s the time I guarantee they will be there working hard.. I show up.yup the.lights are all off I am the only one.. no body is around..a half hour to forty five minutes later the check-in girl comes in goes to take her coat off ..I say to her…..your really late…she gets logged in.. then checks she thought I was wrong no one in their right mind would schedule for that hour.. turns her computer on and checks..gets this odd look on her face then says yes the scheduler had picked that hour for my appointment….logs me in as arrived then i sit for another forty five minutes until the PA comes in..I was laughing..I knew some one was being a smart ass about this appointment and this time it wasn’t me..obviously they scheduled me for the no body’s there hour for shits and giggles for not showing up for the first appointment. reminded me of the guy we were waiting for meds.. all of a sudden he lifted his head confuse and said..where did everyone go..lol lol I said this is a government clinic they all went home turned off the lights and left the night lights on and just the night crew on working..I wasted three hours I could have been reading waiting for them to show up and go to work..
https://x.com/ethicalskeptic/status/1980271675909317045?s=42
What is the value of a wellness check from an MD these days? You can do vitals at home and don’t need that insufferable paternalistic attitude. If you’re married or have a GF, your wife can see your entire body and you can see hers, even if some would prefer not to. No test is worth doing(usually) unless it will affect actions going forward, so that gets into the realm of personal soul searching. Again, this is my perspective and not the norm. I see no benefit to having a medical record that’s not private. HIPAA is designed to distribute your records, not for privacy and autonomy.
” your wife can see your entire body” So, you don’t undersdtand monetization in marriage, lol