Markets Go STMR, Glitter Dips, BitJumps, Tech-forward Old

It’s the “day after” Cyber Monday. At least early, the pretense of normal shows up before lunch. Take the meeting.  Could be a short visit.  As we’ll explain.

Cynic’s Agenda

• STMR probably means “short-term manic rally.”
• Glitter might hint gold is taking a comp time day, but silver fundies rock.
• BTC has “debrinked itself” but just for now.
• ATR? Tech shows up but the basics matter.

yUP  (yeah – UP)

Europe was up modestly ahead of the U.S. open.  Despite the talk that a 1929 replay remains in the wings, the punch bowl isn’t empty yet.  Why, even in Japan, source of the (nearly) free money to float whales and such,

But Japan is an interesting fairytale, if the kids want to hear it.  See, back in December of 1990 – call it 35-years ago.  The Nikkei 225 was around 40,000.  And then it collapsed while the country sorted out promising more than they could deliver to an aging but skilled and hard-working population. Similar to the brick wall ahead for the US when the Social Security Trust Fund has to dial us back into a lower standard of living.

Back to the timeline: about July of this year, the breakout finally based enough so that Japan finally got over 50,000.  Still, only over 48,000 overnight and it’s a cautionary tale about how Illusory Finance is Playing the Peeps.

The way it works?  Crooks in control tout “Magical Growth.”  People eat the growth mushrooms. But out in the back room, the bankster class is watering down the purchasing power of the money such that over the long-term, the Reality is Growth is really (Growth minus Monetary Inflation) which equals Quality of Life (QOL) improvement. About zero.  But it keeps 8-billion busy and away from controllers.

It’s a little more complicated because of something called dispersion.  Making up money takes a while to wash out into the whole system, but then it becomes a pretty “simple to ride” pony after that. Jigger rates up and down – that’s the tugging on the reins to drive this way or that.

So Why a STMR Now?

Easy.  This is jobs week.  Whether people are losing jobs due to AI is hardly the point.  The real fact is 50 percent of spending is by the top 10 percent.  As that club gets smaller (but higher-paid) then widget counts fall.

See, it’s easy to blame AI for the systemic failures now (and soon) appearing.  But in reality, as explained in one of my analytic pieces over at Hidden Guild, the real problems with AI are humans in the back room trying to install guard rails.

We live in a “managed perceptions Fun House.”  We get on (scary) Adventure Ride Earth when born and the exits are via the mortuaries.  Along the way, some people wake up, spend a few years figuring out the ride and then decide (consciously) whether to play-along or not.

Mostly? Herd of sheep.  The “herders” will use a day like this (ahead of ADP tomorrow, Challenger Thursday and then the (run to the dust bunnies) federal numbers Friday.

Buy the Rumor – sell the news.

ONE FUN HOUSE MIRROR REMAINS

How many people can be sucked into buying stocks (paper) instead of paying off their homes (shelter) or getting out from under any interest-charging debt?  Fingers in the ears, please: this is what the Pied Pipers of Wall Street will be shilling now:

Black Friday spending came in strong but not exuberant this year, showing a consumer that’s still willing to buy but increasingly tactical about where each dollar goes.

Our early read is that foot traffic was up modestly, with discount-driven categories like electronics, apparel, small appliances, and home goods carrying most of the weight. What stands out is the shift in behavior: shoppers hunted for deeper discounts, stacked loyalty rewards, and leaned heavily on buy-now-pay-later to stretch budgets that are clearly tighter than a year ago.

Retailers responded by starting promotions earlier and spreading them wider, flattening the old “big spike” pattern into a more controlled, multi-day revenue wave. Many extended to today.

Cyber Monday tracked as the larger of the two events again, with online sales setting another record but only by a narrow margin. The growth is coming not from impulse buying but from algorithmic price watching, cart-abandonment nudges, and the consumer habit of waiting until Monday to pull the trigger on electronics and tech-centric items.

The overarching theme is cautious consumption: people are still buying, but they’re buying strategically, with heavier reliance on mobile, coupon extensions, and BNPL. Taken together, Black Friday and Cyber Monday suggest a retail landscape that’s still alive but heavily conditioned by inflation fatigue, discount expectations, and a consumer trained to wait for the best deal rather than splurge.

So, no matter what happens the rest of the week?  Wasn’t growth or spending, was it?  If needed they’ll use the AI whipping boy which needs to be tarred-and-feathered and put back in the box, pronto.  But they have an ending for every story…Truth, Justice, and the American way have nothing to do with it.

We now go on to your scheduled programming…

Today’s Public Programming Episodes

[Try turning the volume down sometime:  Then it’s just you, a box with pictures on it, your autonomy and agency and notice what they’re feeding you.  Love, education, advancement?  Can we have some of what you’re smoking, please?]

Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace (formerly King of Drones) Episode 751: White House envoy Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow over Ukraine peace deal.

In the backup war: Episode #1278 “Bumpy road to Tehran” Israel’s Netanyahu requests a pardon to end ongoing corruption trial.

Redundant backup war: Hegseth or Admiral Bradley: Who approved the second Venezuela boat strike?

And to give it all an “air of real” Plea deal with son of drug kingpin ‘El Chapo’ details abduction of legendary Sinaloa capo.

If MLM (Major League Media) were really covering news – it was fading fast when I left the game several decades back -someone would file a FOIA to get an accounting of all federal government funds (yes, even the Agencies) paid to all media.  Because everyone’s clear that NPR is “state media:” but the biggest coverup of all (after Epstein) is how crooked the whole shitteree has become.  I’d do it, but kinda busy being old right now.

Around the Ranch:  TFO -Tech Forward Old

Guilty!  Yes, me.  Bought more tech.  The 86 inch TV is now sitting in the dining room as Elaine and I work today on engineering how two oldsters can make it all fit in the living room.  Back braces on order.  About a 50 point each lift – but maybe a neighbor will help me…

And yes, I bought another mini PC.  And (thanks for the idea to reader Eleanor!) a wooden weaver’s loom for Elaine (and a book on how to build a power loom for me).

Been meaning to mention though, that through all the fog of credit cards, most people probably didn’t buy the one thing that has a good track record of saving lives.  Because despite all the crap in news about home invasions by an army of meth heads deluxe, the real statistical risk of death for most of us?  FALLING.  Let’s go over this:

Every year in the United States, roughly forty thousand older adults die from unintentional falls, making falls the leading cause of injury-related death for people over 65. The numbers climb a little each year as the population ages, and millions more seniors are treated in emergency rooms for fall-related injuries that never make the fatality lists.

By comparison, deaths from home invasions are statistically rare and not consistently tracked as a separate category. Most break-ins do not result in fatalities, and the number of people killed during forced-entry crimes is only a tiny fraction of overall homicide figures. The bottom line: tens of thousands of seniors die annually from falls, while fatal home invasions remain uncommon and represent a very small share of violent-crime deaths.

Now, sure, the occasional home invasion can be a killer event.  But – nothing a bedside 9 mm can’t slow – if you have the bedside NV tools.  And if the nearby night-fighter rig is loaded every fifth round a tracer so you can see where it’s going downrange at night odds stack in the homeowner’s favor. And the right aim-point and, and, and…

But seriously – while you’re piling on the credit card debt, go buy a full load of grab bars and safety rails.

We need all the readers we can get (and keep!). By our research it takes 50-years to raise an average replacement reader ready to face reality as we do around here….

One for the Road: AI Writer’s School

OK back to pondering the ultimate writer’s dilemma. Is it more correct to say “I have to fart while thinking about this”? Or should it be “I have to think about this while I fart.”? Guidance from the Silicon Twins:

“The correct form depends entirely on what you want the reader to picture first — the thinking or the farting.

Here’s the breakdown:

“I have to fart while thinking about this.”
This places the fart as the foreground action and the thinking as the background task.
Implication: “Thinking is happening, but the fart is the headline event.”

“I have to think about this while I fart.”
This puts thought in the lead and demotes the fart to ambience.
Implication: “The fart is incidental — the brain is doing the heavy lifting.”

Writer’s choice:
If the fart is the comedy beat, use fart first.
If you’re being philosophically serious in a bodily tragic way, put the thinking first.

Grammatically, both are correct.
Stylistically, go with:

“I have to think about this while I fart.”
It scans better, lands softer, and sounds like a normal sentence delivered by a man who’s seen too much of both markets and life.”

Yeah…but this gets us to the statistical analysis o slider risk….

Write when you get rich…if you can hold it…

George@Ure.net