Market Stalls as Social War Rages

by

We find ourselves in an interesting kettle of fish today with the markets taking the Fed decision Wednesday NOT to move rates as a negative.  Forget the fact that most experts were predicting no move.  That doesn’t matter to a world “on edge” about the Middle East, trade discussions, and, oh yeah, the ongoing left-wing social media revolution aimed at dis-electing the properly-elected president of the US on the vaguest of allegations.  Good God…it just never stops, does it?

On this (miserable, long, drawn-out) debacle, the latest nonsense includes:

  • Prosecutors Highlight Paul Manafort’s Lavish Lifestyle on Day Two of Trial. Pardon us, but when government doesn’t like how someone spends their money?  Well, if there’s a tax evasion charge… It’s the Al Capone playbook for tax evasion.
  • Then we have the report/tweet that “Trump calls on Sessions to stop Mueller’s Russia probe, raising specter of attempted obstruction.”  Sessions has been so weak in all this, we wonder who has what on him in his “control file”?  Maybe Sessions thinks this is how impartiality works, but the presidential appointments aren’t expected to behave in an impartial way.  They get to “call the law” as they see it. Holder sure did, right?  Why, it’s like Sessions going to a hotly-contested Southern football game, sitting on the 50-yard line and staring frozen and mute at the field.  Something’s wrong with this picture.  People in the South stand up for something – even if it’s wrong.
  • We are never surprised when CNN tosses another publicity-happy democrat in the spotlight to bash Trump on any possible pretext: Here’s one who calls the president’s demand a “blatant threat.”  Gosh, really?  WTF else would a dem call it? FMTT..Pile-on news plays on….
  • ABC News has figured out “Special counsel Mueller wants to ask Trump about obstruction of justice: Sources.”  Come on, you need “sources” to figure that out? Mueller wants to bring as much rope as he can get into the Oval and he’ll bring a chair if he can, know what I mean?

Of course, Me-Tooing and riding the “wave of hate” will continue tomorrow, and the day after, and the month after……as the Digital Mob/Digital Uprising (DM/DU) In America and Globally continues.  Doubt it?  Let’s roll with the data..:

The REAL goings on are a lot more devious than the standard RIGHT-LEFT crap spewed by the co-opted followers in the media and the rating slut consultants.

Fact is, we now have TWO GOVERNMENTS in America.  One elected and one pretending to power via the SOCIALIST MEDIA.  This is where we file stories like these:

We contend – and this is based on the data which we hold is very clear – that Social Media is more dangerous that automatic weapons and Bernie Sanders combined!.  More reasons for such an outlandish view?

In case you missed it, these are happening within – and without – these formerly United State.  Hourly if not more often, too.  The Social War is On!

We don’t need Mueller trying to finger more unprosecutable Russians.  Why, his team of Trump-haters hasn’t jailed people over the Clinton email server remains a Deep State Bermuda Triangle (the corners of which are Uranium 1, Foundation, and Servers – how soon the Seth Rich murder got lost in the septic system of the Deep, huh?) is obvious.

No, this is likely too much detail to fathom at this hour.  Instead, I just look to the business headlines and try to see the way ahead…

As the NY Times business desk summed it up: “Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady but, Defying Trump, Signals Increases to Come.”

In many ways, the Fed is right:  If – on the (we pray) small chance the GOP loses the House for failing to close ranks and support Trump, the Wall, cracking down on illegals voting and other  issues, the Fed will need to clean up another collapse.

These are, in longwave economics (which is my bag) quite predictable.  Most people miss them…confusing them with secular events.  The one around 1960 gets blamed on Vietnam.  1970 was over Boeing’s bust and anti-war protests.  Who knows about 1980, but the one in 1990 got us into the sandbox.  The 2000 Internet Blow-off and $8-trillion Tech Wreck was “covered” by the War on Terror showing up with uncanny predictability leading to LIHOP/MIHOP charges.  And then the Housing Bubble blow-up of 2008.

So when you look at the “heartbeat” of the economy, there’s a very clear pattern and the Deep State runs it all, which is why they figure Trump’s gotta go and the democrats have a ton of insiders who believe they are “doing good” for the country, even now.

The unavoidable conclusion is that there is no making the Market happy.  You see, if the rates had gone up, the market was of a mood to scream “Too much, too fast, economy won’t support it!”  But, with the Trump points on the board and a first-look at jobs being good in the ADP report for July (+219,000 jobs), the market went into the bipolar opposite which sounds to us like “What do they see that’s bad, such that they didn’t raise rates?”

Down on Wall Street, the glass is always half-empty when you approach what to us looks like a long-term high, but maybe (in our work, anyway_)  until the middle-to-end of August.  I’ll hold the “We told you so” because the market will open down today, up tomorrow after jobs and then up through options a few weeks out, at least that might not be an entirely silly bet, for now.

But that does circle us around to jobs and the latest data du jour is the Challenger, Gray, and Christmas (in August, lol) Job Cuts report just out today:

As the press release goes on:

“The pace of downsizing fell to the lowest level of the year in July, as U.S.-based employers announced plans to cut 27,122 workers from payrolls during the month, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

July’s total fell 27.1 percent from the 37,202 cuts announced in June and 4.2 percent from the same time last year, when 28,307 cuts were announced.

Last month’s total was the lowest of the year, falling below the previous low of 31,517 recorded in May. July’s cuts were the lowest since November 2016, when employers announced 26,936 cuts.”

We will get some other data as the day goes on – Factory Orders come in at 10 this morning.  But the “half empty view” prevails going into the open with the futures down 160 points on the Dow, or so.

And in the morning’s Tulip check, Bitcoin is still around $7,560….

Good News – And Bad…

As Time reports Drinking Too Much Alcohol (And Too Little) Is Linked to Dementia.

Time to put on the Flak Glasses and go watch the Tweet-fire at the Social War Front.  Be safe and “Moron the ‘morrw…”

Comandante Ure out…

39 thoughts on “Market Stalls as Social War Rages”

  1. Manafort is being charged for tax evasion if I understand correctly, then why is Al Sharpton who owes 4 million in back taxes still walking around free? The Democratic double standard comes into play again.

  2. George,

    Thank you for bringing some clarity each morning to this mad max world. For some reason today, a line from Desiderata came in to my head.

    …..and whether or not it is clear to you no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

    Peace

  3. On the Manafort trial listen to what the Judge is saying to Muller’s team he’s got their number and has told them so in not very polite terms, like it is not a crime to spend the money you make any damn way you want!

  4. El Comandante Supremo U.

    I’m old but I have a decent memory. Remember Craig Livingstone?

    (Dealing in colorful shorthand here for efficiency and humor value.) He was (is?) a Clintonista Enforcer “Beef” operative, with intelligence and creative talent.

    Early on, he got detailed to waltz over to the FBI and secure a large number of secret un-vetted raw intel files (shall I call them “Dossiers”?) on… …just about everybody in Gov who might ever be a “problem” — and probably many others. Their cover story (they said later) to the FBI gatekeepers and secretkeepers was that this Very Long List of folks were all being considered for Important GovJobs, and needed “review” by the C-Team.

    Right.

    Over many months, 1200, 1800, 2500, 3600, and, finally, “many” such files were admitted to as the total; and in a Big Show of faux-“honesty,” they were supposedly “returned.” No chance, of course, that the Xerox machines weren’t a hummin’ plenty before that event… …of course.

    I believe much of the Clinton Magic then, AND NOW, springs from the judicious application of the correct dose of blackmail to the files’ subjects. I’m sure the very same effect keeps that database constantly refreshed, even now.

    It explains a lot about things that do happen, and should not, and things that should happen — but don’t.

  5. George – the other day you wrote how a fed rate hike would be a deep state move against trump. If you could please explain how the fed keeping rates unchanged is not a deep state move in favor of trump. Thanks.

    • LOL – had they raised rates, it would have been a torpedo. market should turn up today or tomorrow and no DS play.

      • George, You called it the other day. Instead of the Fed moving the market…the selloff we had on Monday ended up influencing the Fed and they held rates. That impressed the heck out of the market.

        Tech stocks are on fire today. Tesla alone is up $41 on the day. Amazon is up $34. I am heavy on both. May short Tesla tonight….it’s the history of that stock.

  6. “the ongoing left-wing social media revolution aimed at dis-electing the properly-elected president of the US on the vaguest of allegations. Good God…it just never stops, does it?”

    The truly sad part about that is.. THEY HAVE TO…I think that once you sell your soul to the devil he owns it and you are subject to doing his bidding. Even the good ones that are left that are truly concerned about our country are in a conundrum state.
    from my perspective.as long as we keep voting in the same irresponsible people that have a rotten work record haven’t done anything that they said they would poor attendance history etc. to office then. WE DESERVE ALL OF THE THINGS THEY DO TO US..
    A young man came over to visit with me because he is running for office.. he asked if he could place a yard sign out and of course started to tell me how he felt about issues that I am passionate on.. I asked him one question.. what did you do during your last term..
    are there any postings about any activities..did you write or start any legislation of course .. He didn’t and was stumped.. the canned answers wouldn’t cut it.. I of course won’t vote for him again.
    https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/mems.php
    on a note from their side.. if someone tossed a few million at me. well I would probably vote the way they wanted me to..
    how to change it.. let them donate it.. to whoever or whatever.. but as an employee of the state and federal govt.. the money donated should be turned over to the states distributed evenly and the voters decide who gets it and what projects get finished..or if they want to just give it to some legislator that would be fired as a dishwasher at any restaurant or any burger flipper..
    now here is something..
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCYZZPwJr_c
    this tower is basically 1800 feet up.. tough job.. I know a great deal of these guys and am goodd friends with the owner of one company that travels around the world doing this.. anyway.. a bunch of guys was just up a tower that was a few hundred feet higher than this one to change the light bulb.. the guys get finished and are told that they must have disconnected a fitting the tower wasn’t working.. they head back.. what they discovered is the slick stick at the very top had fallen to the ground.one guy and I was talking and he said heck I was just up there..(my guess is he reassessed how much that job was worth to him ) . yesterday my friend that owns the company posted job openings for tower climbers..guess what the starting pay is.. ..20.00 an hour.. it truly shocked me a bit I thought even in the seventies water tower painters and workers made 7.50 and high powered line men made about ten dollars an hour.. the owner is a nice guy and very generous.. pays well but I never had any idea that to do that job was a twenty an hour job.. a bottom feeders position.. phew..

    • YOU may…. “(WE) DESERVE ALL OF THE THINGS THEY DO TO US”..BUT do not speak for me…..as long as the ‘money’ is handed out to politicians at ALL levels…YOU get the ‘shaft’ as well as me BUT …I did not vote for anyone….as they ALL get corrupted…even the ‘good ones’…since they are rendered…useless….as in their ideas do NOT get put into action or law……

    • $20/per sounds about right. They get a bump in rate for every 25 feet they go up. RTV station with which my bigbro was connected, had an 850 foot tower. The painters, bulb-changers, and antenna tweakers were getting $58+ at the top, in 1975.

      • you know Ray.. I was curious if the pay starts when they punch in and go to a job and ends when they return or if it is just on a daily basis.. truck drivers get paid while they are driving and not while they are parked.. the same with mobile MRI drivers and technicians.. Of course I won’t ever ask any of my friends since it NOMDB… but I was curiously thinking about it..

      • Ray .. I know that the kid that owns the company…( I have known him since he was on a tricycle) is a good generous man to.. and most of the kids working for him in any of his many outposts.. are making decent money.. definitely not an eighty or hundred grand job earnings… and one crew just got back from I think south america.. it would make sense if they got paid while traveling.. I do know that no matter how much it is.. I won’t ever get on one of those poles LOL LOL I have a tough time getting on a step stool LOL LOL.. and definitely not for twenty an hour.. the same reason I wouldn’t drive truck cross country.. those people drive like maniacs in the cities..

    • The farm block has lived on subsidies for generations, as one labeled it being taken care of from the cradle to the grave, the USDA in its latest report states that it now has 1.30 billion pounds of surplus cheese and 2.5 billion pounds of surplus meat the greatest amount in history, of the country.The surplus milk plant over in the next county reported they dumped some 1.3 million pounds of milk last year, and the lay-off sited reported that some 1.5 million gallons of milk was dumped,five of the large dairy farms in this area sold out last month ranging from $12 million to al most $30 million but yet they cry the price of milk is to low,no I would say the farm block is making out very very well in fact to well when the government/taxpayer ends up paying for not only those billions of pounds of surplus cheese and meat but also the storage cost….

  8. I took a shot & placed an order for my first 3x ETF Short. SQQQ at 12.78. That is what my charts say is the buying price.

    • He who bets against Ure’s Golem, may live long enough to fold ’em. Burma shave. I expect a higher close sayeth the automaton.

      • I must be missing something but Golem for me just said “stay long”. It isn’t predicting a higher close, it’s just telling me that we don’t have the appropriate symmetry yet for the market to turn, could close lower or higher on the day, but stay long is all I’m getting from it. Which, of course, appears to the be correct course of action.

    • The Dow turns positive at 1:15 PM EDT – The Golem laughs his mechanical laugh. George can afford dinner for a change.

      • If you use 5-min. charts stay with 5-min.
        If you use 15-min. stay with 15-min. charts. You seem confused–no good ;-).

      • Bruno, good point. I should have stayed with my day charts & all would have been well. Sold out the position when everything went negative. Apple saved me from the error of my ways.

  9. Since it seems that a majority of the US citizenry still believes that 19 guys with box cutters, and no commercial airliner flight training, pulled off 9/11, and that fighting endless wars in the ME ever since makes sense, seems they will believe anything.

    • And Building 7 didn’t do a free-fall pancake and, even though there’s not one shred of an airliner anywhere at the Pentagon the perfectly round hole in its side was made by the same type of plane that left a very distinct impression, wings and all, on the towers before they collapsed. Yah … right.

    • As far as I’m aware it can be nothing more than supply & demand, it’s all pure speculation. There are hundreds of them out there that move in tiny amounts all the time based purely on speculation. There is no value, nothing to mark it against as far as I can see.

  11. Ahh yes the “clowns” aka deep state or just the “ the tools of the “illumined” international bankers” . In any case if you are paying attention, you would remember that a young attorney in the US Justice Department exonerated Mr Manfort on these exact charges 7 years ago
    . The name of that young attorney was/is Rod Rosetien himself. How exactly does this garbage “donkey show” ever get to a district court? Perhaps it is indeed a setup, but the Prosecuter is the one who has been setup…

  12. George – Let me explain where I am coming from in regard to President Trump – and for the purposes of this post, no discussion of Russian influence or the why and wherefore involved.

    Three topics – first the economy with a minor related puzzle. At the current moment in time, the growth rate is very good, even given the over hyping of how great it is in relation to previous quarters. Except that the recent imposition of tariffs will put a large dip in future quarters. I wonder whether the president is truly understanding how much of an effect this will cause. (The puzzle – I am amazed at the ‘turnover’ of the people working in the government – it should be a plum of a job, but, but . . . this has turned into a ‘fire sale’ and qualified people won’t work for the Trump Administration.)

    Next, immigration – in particular the separation of children from their parents. Whoever came up with this cluster needs the old ‘remedy’ of being tared and feathered and run out of town on a rail. That the president thought this was an appropriate procedure in dealing with the problem on the southern border is mind-blowing. And to compound this – losing track of where the parts of the families involved are? It speaks highly of the peaceable nature of the parents that they haven’t gone berserk unlike some U.S. citizens might. (So I notice that illegal people coming in from the north don’t have this done . . . My Norwegian and Swedish ancestors came in presumably legal – from Canada. I can say that given what I know of their descendants, this would have not worked – and they had huge families, 12 and 15 kids respectively on only one side.)

    Finally, President Trump has an absolutely terrible track record dealing with leaders of other countries – immediately after the beginning of his term, he attempted using his skills on the president of Mexico and it seems that the ‘guy’ at least from the standpoint of our leader did not give him the proper ‘respect’ . . . So when he meets with our country’s traditional friends he is ‘enfant terrible’ and doesn’t know how to conduct himself. And our enemies – leaders of countries where most Americans would NOT want to live – he is friendly with . . . I swear he would wish to meet with Satan himself! (He may still do this one day the way he is going.)

    So this is where I am coming from, George.

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