Market Crash Windows Discussed

These are not new to our ($40/year) Peoplenomics.com subscribers.  They’ve had these for a couple of weeks now.  But, we’re getting near-enough the “fish or cut bait levels” that it would be rude of us not to post them.

Before reading these, you need to understand this is not trading advice but it IS the result of more than 20-years of research into how markets really work.

One of the points of the research (other than markets are semi-cyclical in nature and therefore semi-predictable) is that when Crashes occur, they do not happen at the top of trend channels.  The happen when channel bottoms are being tested.

From a review of the data, we can list a few “Days from Peak to Major Declines” that we might want to keep an eye on:

As you can see, there are a couple of date ranges that should have our undivided attention.

OK…that’s Problem #1.

There’s a Second Problem???”

Hell yes…isn’t there always?  This will take some explaining, but do try to follow along because it’s potentially the most important news item you will ready this month.  Really…seriously!

That’s the global market breakdown.  If you don’t what Elliott Waves are, the Wikipedia entry on point is here.  The original book by R.N. Elliott may be purchased from Amazon ( The Major Works of R. N. Elliott) but more approachable is the Prechter and Frost book ( Elliott Wave Principle: A Key to Market Behavior) which lays out how markets move in wave of 3 or 5, with an occasional 7, and the odd X-waves and such.

All this sounds pretty “esoteric” until you look at our Global Aggregate Index an d discover two very disturbing facts:

1) There is a complete Global five wave advance from the 2009 lows that not only looks complete, but is also breaking down seriously into a Wave 3 down…

How bad can the Global picture get?

VERY, VERY, VERY BAD.

On the Peoplenomics Subscriber Master Index page, there is a small spreadsheet I wrote a good while back called  “openbrain.xls”  Using it, or the in-house extended version (programmer’s privileged, huh?) we can plug in the size of the first wave down globally and then project where the bottom might be.  Having a dart toss on the board, we can then roll in (or in this case OUT) of global stock funds with POSSIBLY better odds than a random walk would provide:

We see (looking up the high of V on the Global Index supporting data – which no, we don’t share) we peg the high at 39,245.01 and the first low (or the A or 1 down that followed) at 35,711.14.  When we plug this into the “father” of the brainamp spreadsheet, notice the Wave 5 range we COULD be looking at:

I know what you should be thinking up to this point:  “OK, Ure, there’s a chance that the Global Market could drop from where we are this morning down 14 percent or so…but wouldn’t things get better from THERE???”

Sadly, no.  Because the Second Problem is THIS:

We know that Elliott Waves “nest” at least until you get out to the decades and centuries level, at that.  So here’s the problem:

“What if this is only Wave 1 down or a much LARGER DEGREE Global decline?  What does that tell us about the pending crack-up of Globalism?”

Plug the 29,518 number (the fifth wave low in Global 1 down if it works this way as shown above) and the new count infers a near-death-experience for Globalsm.  This is how ugly things COULD GET by 2021:

Consider what kind of count MIGHT imply:  A whacking of about 80 percent of stock market values globally.  Now you know why I was writing Wednesday about the Depression of 2021 on the subscriber side.  Not whack-job talk.  Just “running some numbers…”

Believe me, since it was a Russian (Nikolai Kondratieff also spelled Kondratiev) that invented the long wave economics angle back in the early 1920’s and before the First Great Depression, no one is likely to have a better bead on this outcome than the Russians.  They may be “shaping WW III” already and there’s mounting evidence this is the case.

Why do you think liberals support the mass feminization of America?  Decline of the warrior class?  Open borders?

There’s War on the horizon…simple as that.  When the global order collapses, someone is going to go for the gusto.

Which would explain a lot of the headlines today since it would explain why the Russians might be already engaging in “shaping operations” against both the US and the Europeans Union because if and when the Global Blow Down happens, there will be finger-pointing and the possibility of a global war by 2024.

“What Can Be Done About It?”

Basically?  Nothing.

Sure, at a personal level you can make the long-term strategic commitment we made when this sort of outcome became inevitable at some point due to the whole world getting off the Gold and Silver standards.  And this, in turn, allowed central governments everywhere to just “make up money” out of thin air.

But you see, this causes knock-on effects.  For one, the purchasing power of money declines.  This looks like “inflation” but in reality, the purchasing power of money is being eroded.

Remember, too, that when there’s a crash, and companies begin to go bankrupt in large numbers, that a Depression doesn’t just wipe out debt because on the other side of the ledger (when you study accounting a bit) you’ll. come to [appreciate that for every bankruptcy there is an EROSION OF SAVINGS.

The only way to play is to have no debt, as we see it.  Own from land and the instruments of production even if it’s nothing more than a power rototiller and a few pounds a heritage seeds for vegetables that have lots of nutritional value and not too many pests locally.  For us, that’ broccoli.

My Personal Work Plan

I’ve been writing about the economy since 1970 and more or less full-time for the past nearly 20-years.  One this is clear:  Wise counsel of bright people is always helpful. Please feel free to post outlooks and ideas in our Comments section and pass along this website to your friends.  Unlike social media, where there’s a lot of politics and effort to control/harness people’s general distractions, around here the goal is simply to engage in limited politics, but keep a weather-eye out for the major storm clouds.

Unequivocally, today, I am pointing at the sky.  A collapse of the Global markets will begin the process of blowing over the Houses of Cards.

It is not certain…that’s juyst the nature of weather forecasting.

Pension funds will be crushed if it does happen, and governments, finding they cannot deal with the bailout costs, will pass them along to their “tax chattel” – us.

This weekend, my friend Robin Landry and I will be spending a few hours going over our views.  Robin’s an optimistic realist and thinks there may still be one more major move up before we get to finis.  With the global markets breaking down into an obvious third wave down, the odds of a new series of all-time highs seem to me tow be lessening.  But, Robin’s been doing this 43-years now…and his view is often golden.

Then, just after Thanksgiving, my consigliere is coming to visit.  Anyone smart enough to forecast a global war in the 2024 timeframe back in 1979 (ignoring being a lawyer, CPA, extra-class ham licensee, pilot, etc…) is a useful fellow to bounce things off of as I work out this year’s annual Peoplenomics forecast.

A lot of things to think about this weekend…While Elaine and I will be taking in a show at a casino north of Dallas, it may be one of our last distractions for a while.

Things are likely to be serious even after Thanksgiving as you can see in the “hot dates” listed above.

It may sound trite, but this is a good Friday to say it:

: “God help us all.”

Today’s Adventure?

Futures are down 183 as we head to the open.  As I read it (again, never advice, mind you) this is a bounce and we should be a higher levels than yesterday sometime next week and ready to break either way after the election returns.

It would have been worse, but GDP just came out and looks pretty good:

On the other hand, as we’ve been ragging this morning, this is not a global answer and that’s where the problems are.  Still, best back-to-back quarters in four years.

Short Takes

Democrat Cory Booker may have been the 11th mail “pipebomb” publicity target.  I look for him to run for the WH in 2020, btw.  I mean, if you’re going to run, got to get a “package” right?

Claire McCaskill’s husband invested in pro-veteran properties that tried to evict homeless vets over $233 owed rent.  That ought to help the GOP candidate, huh?

Vladimir Putin invited to Washington in early 2019: John Bolton.  Will he be coming to make a “final offer” to play nice?

Social Media’s fall in slow motion continues as Snap shares sink as two million users move on.

Another Historical Replay

Go rewatch the old move “Who Killed Roger Rabbit?”

The plot involves the ripping out of electric street cars in Los Angeles and the press for GM’s diesel buses.

And the replay reciprocal now appears as “GM wants Trump administration to back national electric vehicle program.”

How stupid are we?  (Very!)

Moron the ‘morrow… have a great weekend!

author avatar
George Ure
Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share UrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/

23 thoughts on “Market Crash Windows Discussed”

  1. G, Ure hot dates are buggin me out this AM.
    Nibbled on SDOW Nov 17 Calls @1.07 average cost (20 lot = 2000 shares)yesterday. Will blow out 5 @ $1.42/33%level, sell 5 more @$1.60/50%level.Will hold the remaining 10 over the weekend, with Sell Stop order in place in case positive news breaks out over weekend.
    Editorial note, my apologies to Bill S. for missing the word LET in quote from Julius Caesar yesterday. So..once again going into Friday trading day methinks another from same is appropriate..
    ” Welcome Ye, Goats and Dogs, to Cyprus”
    W. Shakespeare, J Caesar

  2. Brilliant! But very complicated, indeed.
    However, thank you for this long & scary explanation, but it makes imminent sense.

  3. Well said, George. The war has been raging for several decades. It started in earnest with 9/11, when one of America’s economic temples was attacked in conjunction with their center of military power – the Pentagon, aka the American ‘military/industrial’ complex. One should not fail to see this intentional targeting. War and economy are inevitably, fatalistically linked.

    The U.S. is also experiencing an escalating ideological civil war waged via social media and the MSM, collectively ‘the media.’ This war uses propaganda to control what one learns, e.g. sees, hears and ultimately thinks. It is, at its core, a war targeting minds where individual beliefs and values become the casualties.

    “The media is the most powerful entity on earth. They have the power to make the innocent guilty and to make the guilty innocent, and that’s power. Because they control the minds of the masses.”
    ~ Malcolm X

    • Warhammer,
      I agree with what you said, but don’t you think the biggest abuse of power is by our President that uses his safe house..aka Fox News to spew his version of news and information that is contrary to what we many times witness before our own eyes.

      Everyone wants to blame the MSM, but they are just reporting what comes out of Trumps mouth. I don’t need to adjust the volume on my TV. I hear the same idiotic statements that everyone else hears. The MSM replays it.. and Fox spins it to explain what he really meant to say.

      The danger is not allowing all of us to have an opinion and calling out Trump on his lies and deceitful statements. His vitriolic blasts against the very same media that made him famous in the first place is a sign that he himself knows that he has huge shortcomings, but would rather kill the messenger, rather than engage in a self awareness/ accountability/ humbling correction of himself.

      • When the NY Times yesterday ran a fantasy piece about a US Secret Service agent giving his glock to a Russian agent to kill Trump? What kind of bullshit is that? (correct answer: Highly parisan sticking ideas in people’s heads kind, that’s what!).

    • Assuming flight 93 was headed for either the capitol or the WH, 911 was a trifecta attack on political leaders, military leaders and economic leaders.

      If they just wanted body count, lots of college stadiums have 80k+ people in the stands on Saturday.

  4. A great site for living frugally is Mr. Money Mustache: http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/ . While his focus is early retirement, his commentary on cheap/frugal/self-reliant living will be quite useful in the event of a worldwide depression. I have no affiliation with him.

  5. Told my kids we are up against some very bad times. One said, “Ma, you’ve been saying that since the 70s.” I answered, “Yes, but this time, I’m right.” Prepping is always on my mind.

  6. George, such a beautiful economic dissertation, and then you finish with: “Why do you think liberals support the mass feminization of America? Decline of the warrior class? Open borders?” Please. Really? Like if you don’t beat your woman, you’re a sissy?

    The fact is that Conservatives’ ACTUAL policy is a failed disaster, so of course Conservatives have to switch to this goofy culture wars stuff to distract.

    Your team controls all of the government, and still 1. no tightening of the rules, 2. no super increase of amnesty judges, and 3. no tightening of penalties on employers. Instead caging kids is their solution? Goofy. So, who’s really in favor of open borders? Because if Conservatives actually solves the borders, your team loses the prime ingredient in its anger propaganda machine.
    Your team hates banning pre-existing conditions, a cornerstone of O-care, which they tried to kill off 50+ times, so now they outright lie about it. Please. So silly.
    Had your team not cut taxes and not lied us into Iraq, the national debt would be paid off now. Trash the dollar’s purchasing power much? Force interest rates up much? Even Keynes thought massive deficit stimulus in good times was dumb.

    George, let’s face it, Conservatives have substituted anger, culture wars and racial animus for actual competence. And in the process, have looted the treasury. Looted it like a banana republic. Best, Mike.

    • let’s take this one lie at a time:
      George, such a beautiful economic dissertation, and then you finish with: “Why do you think liberals support the mass feminization of America? Decline of the warrior class? Open borders?” Please. Really? Like if you don’t beat your woman, you’re a sissy?
      I didn’t say that – those of the programmed voices in your head installed by the liberal media. Try to read what I’m saying and get meds for those voices you hear!

      The fact is that Conservatives’ ACTUAL policy is a failed disaster, so of course Conservatives have to switch to this goofy culture wars stuff to distract.
      WTF? When the dems block over appointment for God knows how long? then, in the wreckage of appointments say righteous shit like this? come on Mike, honest up here.

      Your team controls all of the government, and still 1. no tightening of the rules, — blocked at every turn by Pelosi, schumer et al. OMG and now Chelsea is running…we are soooo screwed. Oh, not “my team.” I vote least of bad or worst.

      2. no super increase of amnesty judges, [since if we build a wall and keep em out, no democrat open border flood to deal with?]

      and 3. no tightening of penalties on employers. [Deep state blocks enforcement]

      Instead caging kids is their solution? Goofy. [No, goofy is the parents sending their kids…come on, you reading the lefty pamphlets now?]

      So, who’s really in favor of open borders?

      Because if Conservatives actually solves the borders, your team loses the prime ingredient in its anger propaganda machine. [Politicizing an invasion of OTMs…god you’ve been washed]

      Your team hates banning pre-existing conditions, a cornerstone of O-care, which they tried to kill off 50+ times, so now they outright lie about it. Please. So silly. [YOUR TEAM said it would save money, I could keep my doctor and a host of other inadmissables…if you want to go there I’m, ready and I’m not an idiot. See healthcare earnings/… ‘zat where dem’s invest? In the payoff beneficiearies? That why Biden can raise money? healthcare peeps?

      I won’t even waste time on the rest of it except to say that both parties have a hand on the gallows lever and have since YOUR TEAM screwed us all with the Great Society pap and then covered up JFK’s murder by the big money and intelligence community. so please, read, think, and get back to us. Bait and Switch – it’s the democrat way. Remember who backed the early KKK? Democrats, lol. The republicans are the Party of Lincoln…

    • Mike,

      Wouldn’t it be great if we all [could] just “get along”? (Rodney King, LA) Saw things the same way? There were only one set of facts? We could agree on the role of government? Place politics should play in our society versus why we are here on this planet?

      It will never happen. That’s the beauty of it. A bunch of rich white guys (willing to risk all) anticipated the future. Still, an amazing accomplishment that we push aside for the petty.

      My three millennial sons side with your team. All feel guilty over being white. Where this came from, I don’t understand (maybe public school), but it is what it is.

      If my dad had lived, I would love to have a had discussion with him about what his life was like up until to WWII. How his views changed?

      Without question, it is more probable that my sons, and younger people, will be challenged by serious events (like the Great Depression, WWII, a plague or worse) that catch them off-guard. They are going to respond. We will re-generate the reason for America, once again. Any views we Old Farts have right will be completely forgotten.

  7. 20% of the DJIA is based on a “service” aspect with a strong need to be “trendy”. With the history of consumer “fickleness”, these companies are all on borrowed time. One bad PR episode and the slide begins.

    The need for constant revision in light of market share opens new market opportunities by millennials. Old hat names in food or alcoholic beverages services that just aren’t trendy enough. Millennial’s value identity uniqueness above brand loyalty! lol

    old types just don’t get it! lol

  8. The GOP needs to hire an Elvis impersonator to cut an ad:”Don’t Be Fooled.”

    The bomber’s Twitter page revealed that he followed 32 people,NONE OF THEM REPUBLICANS.

  9. The 3.5% growth rate in the third quarter, is primarily the stocking of inventory for the 4th quarter holiday season. Consumer spending in the 4th quarter will determine whether the 2019 outlook will favorable or unfavorable. KISS! lol

    With the dollar being high, foreign exports will be flat. In the U.S. the heavy lifting will fall on U.S. consumers to keep the economy afloat above the 3% growth level.

    In China, much of the same consumer burden is falling on their small middle class. Their task is to keep their economy from falling below 6% growth level.

    We will see if the old adage about there being no winners in a trade war, still carries/holds water. lol

  10. Love the post today George..

    Don’t be surprised if everything gets dragged on.. I thought last year it would start crumbling and missed it. Everything went on as business as usual.
    The whole situation terrifies me.
    Our society today hasn’t had the privilege of living in hell.
    And this time I fear will be substantially worse.

  11. “Robin’s an optimistic realist and thinks there may still be one more major move up before we get to finis.”

    See, George, that’s what confuses me, and leads to many missed opportunities! Here are two ‘extremely smart’ people reaching opposit conclusions, looking perhaps at the same data “like Elliott Waves.”

    You always say that this is NO investment advice, OK, but I value your opinions and conclusions; Otherwise, why read it?

    However, I’d been more successful trading short term (5 or 15 minutes) using tested moving averages with standard deviations.
    Again, saying your work is excellent, but for making money in the stock market EW had been a hindrance for >60 years plus, because it causes doubt into once own market wisdom. (I don’t need to see this in the reader’s comments ;-)).

  12. Worst that happens, George, is that we are over-prepped. How can that be a bad thing?

    Feel fortunate that I live in a small, walkable town. Wiliamsburg, VA. Many fo us old people walk here in the early morning. We will take care of each other during a crisis.

    Likely, during an economic (war) collapse, they will send the students home. The administration will fear the liability of having snowflakes to manage. The new wellness center won’t be large enough, with its yoga seats, to accommodate the traumatized. Their coursework will move to being online, if there is an uninterrupted line.

    All of the permanent residents, like me, will enjoy the peace and quiet of their absence. We do every summer, every break. Then, we will take care of each other. Just as we acknowledge each other (without the headphones and cell phones in tow), each morning. Our political differences won’t matter much. We might even hope, in unison, that our planetary warming were really true. The opposite won’t help our broccoli seeds grow.

    Like your work.

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