The real economic truth is that we don’t have a new consumer product that will result in lots of employment, unless you’re an app builder and already there are signs and portents that’s a kind of peaky thing.
But that doesn’t stop more conventionally-minded economists from wringing their hands about the possibility of a U.S. default later this month. It’s one of the hot items as Congress gets back to work today.
Besides the potential for a budget crisis, we note that Paul (secret trade dealer and open border believe) Ryan is still floating around as a possible Speaker of the House.
This is turning into all kinds of fun to watch, since the Repugnican Corporate Committee is being forced into the unenviable position of reveal just “whose bitch” it really is. My money is that it will eventually be revealed as the all-time sub for the K-Street mob (always a top).
But, like whether the gay old party is going to come out as lap-puppies for corporations over time, is not the issue. It’s TIMING that matters. Status quo is a hard drug to kick and the Repugnicans will no doubt try to talk themselves out of going to rehab until the party is all but dead from overdosing on financial favors…the current political drug of choice.
You see, there are two ways this can work. One way would be for the corporations to install a moderate who will keep the harness gear on and thus, maintain the corporate quo. The other way (if we don’t get 50-shades of crooked) would be for the Republicans to re-emerge as the party of small central government and states rights and, as long as we’re at it, a balanced budget.
The repugnicans have suffered a curious kind of slow-onset values rot that has been going since the Reagan days. You’ll remember that radio bloviators have been doing their best to deify Ronald Reagan as the best Republican ever. Yet a liberal friend reminded me this weekend:
“ Reagan holds the percentage record for debt growth outside of WW2.
Strangely enough, Reagan also holds the record in percentage growth of non-military Federal government employees (my personal favorite measure of “size” of government), followed by Bush2.
In both cases, the fastest growth of Federal civilian employment was when the GOP controlled both houses and the White House. On that measure, it is really quite surprising that there only two sessions of Congress since WW2 during which the number of employees dropped.
Those were both All-Dem Congresses, the first two years of Clinton, and the first two years of Obama.
But here we go on to the second part of the problem: the Demoncrats come along on a good story and do a little “window-dressing” on the front end, but as soon as they get their mits on power the same problems come back.
Which is why the demoncrats are just as bad as the repugnicans: They are promoting what one NY Post write described as an “eminently indictable presumptive nominee” while the current office sitter has failed every measure of transparency with the secret (sell-out?) trade deal and what I believe to be impeachable misfeasance on immigration.
{Hat tip to Michael Walsh of the NYPost for that fine phrasing about her we cannot support.)
Since it’s Monday, though, it’s easy to blame Congress, so that’s where spin-the-breakfast cereal ends this morning. And, as always when we play Spin The Breakfast Cereal, there’s a terrible mess to clean up afterward.
And this time is no different. So we’ll milk it for all its worth…
About That Market
Figuring the political circle-jerk isn’t getting us anywhere, Wall Street should wake up this week and run for hiding. In fact, a 10% decline in stock prices would make a lot of sense in here. People aren’t buying a lot, except cars and that doesn’t an economy make.
So in Asia overnight Japan was down 8-10ths of a percent, China held its own, and in Europe today Britain and France were down a bit while Germany was up a bit.
Bitcoins were up to $266 but some of that is coming on news hype. Seems that CryptoCoinsNews is reporting that an Oztralian commission is looking into the bankster scree closing down bank accounts of Australian Bitcoin traders/dealers.
Like government, banks hate competition…so this should be an interesting thing to watch.
The Weak Ahead
Until we start seeing some good news in the flow, there’s not much upside left in the stock market, as I see it, Oil is going to thrash around in the upper 40’s seems like, and while that’s going on, the vultures in the oil patch with deep pockets will be trying to buy up future resource on the cheap. When that pie’s been sliced, then oil will recover.
And that should be in time to slap the economy back down. That is, if the Fed threats to raise interest rates before the year is out don’t do us in first.
A broken budget, soaring (creatively accounted debts) and two arguable co-opted by the corporate purse parties are hardly grounds for optimism. Remember we still have 14+ months of the current regime to suffer through before we can even hope for change.
And given how the policies of both the demos and repervs are nearly identical, we can only sit back and see what the Big Check Writers are out buying.
Hype and Hope should lead to a modest increase in 2016 markets, but after Q1 ‘17 I’ll be leading the fear-mongers – but not as long as the S&P stays above 1,700.
If it gets smacked down below that in the turdbulence (sic) to come, I’ll be introducing myself to the dust bunnies under the bed where we’ll be hiding.
Housing Starts tomorrow. Leading Economic Indicators Thursday. But with little besides political follies, with the kids back in school, this would be a fine week to sneak in a vacation, skip class, or go traveling, depending on where you are in Life.
Oil Dropping, Too
Somewhere off in the background, there are stories about how future demand in China is one driver of the falling oil prices today.
Bolstering the concern is the continuing decline in the Baltic Dry Shipping Index which closed last week at 754. A couple of months back, this index was up in the 1,000+ range. When it gets down into the 600s, it is sometimes taken as a sign that real recession is on the way.
We still anticipate more downside action in markets through November, and possibly into early December this year.
Fake Reviews?
Ever wonder if some of those reviews on Amazon are real?
Well Amazon is going after the shysters who put up fake reviews.
I wonder how much of a hit that will put in Fiverr revenue…
Drone Registration Overdue
May be in the works as the government looks at the airspace conflicts that are cropping up.
As mentioned in Coping this morning, anything more than 250-feet above the closest charted obstruction is a reasonable.
Reagan would be a non-starter, today. Former Democrat, former governor of a blue state, union member and leader, consulted psychics, divorced and remarried, etc.. Our contemporary media would crucify him for his economic policies (rightfully so),’fake’ homespun mannerisms, humor and speech patterns. The craziest thing, to me, is that conservatives still venerate him.
otoh, he was as neo-con as they get, so he might have a pretty good chance, after all. e.g. Beirut Barracks Bombing, among other military ops.
(He and Carter got a bunch of my buddies killed…for no strategic, economic or political gain. They were both incompetent, imo. Of course, nothing’s changed, since. SGT USMC 1976-1983.)
you should read the book the real Jimmy Carter.. before I started to read it I pretty much thought Jimmy was responsible for the whole catastrophic situation that raised up during his administration and pretty much despised him because of it.. He actually wanted to stop wars and draw back our military from all these needless wars and put more protection on our own country rather than someone elses and balance our budget ( you don’t see many congressmans little Percy’s or Priscilla going to war on the front lines..for some reasons the wealthy are able to get their kids exempt from being on the front lines.. I personally think if a congressman wants a war he should be a leader and be out front leading the battle like the leaders of old. but then I beleive as naive as our leaders are.. that this time if a war goes full fledge it will touch every single man or child on the planet.. even though they have the bunkers built.. ).. but after getting some of the facts straight about the carter administration he took the fall for a lot of stuff that Congress did causing so much to the laborers of our nation.. I now both admire him and understand him more while also despising him for doing a two face and not coming forthright to the country like reagan would have done ( but then which politician was really honest except for rand and bernie but they don’t have a chance.. that is why donald trump will be great as president.. the squeaky wheel gets the grease he would shame congress into going to work.actually have some body reading this.. can I say crap online that is in the bills beyond the cover explanation and bring that to the public.. LOL).. It was really congress that voted in the millionaire welfare act that put the burden of the budget totally on the backs of the working class causing the double digit inflation.. if I am reading it right in the news.. our wonderful representatives want to do the exact same thing all over again.. even with the catastrophic results of the seventies. maybe it has just been long enough for the majority of the voters to die off and the younger groups believe the BS coming out of congress..
I definitely blame congress for the mess we are in.Now for my rant of the day. they haven’t done a thing in a few decades just point at the other side and say its bubba’s fault he did it don’t look at me.. well why didn’t you do something the only two on the floor bringing up any issues that mean anything to the public are rand paul and bernie sanders…We don’t take care of our own country but will gladly ship money to help some other country or business that has interests in another country, Just take a look at some other country we have rebuilt then take a look at detroit city or pittsburg penn as an example does the americans tax dollar help americans.. medications are charges so high because the pharmaceutical companies have to gain back the research money that our elderly move every winter to mexico or close to it so they can buy them over the border, Oh why doesn’t the pharmaceutical companies share that research cost to all their people world wide.. and why do we the people give them grants to do research.. Our country is so bad that our infrastructure is failing yet we blame our elderly and poor and disabled.. lets take care of ourselves first use our tax dollars for america once again.(http://www.sott.net/article/250592-Audit-of-the-Federal-Reserve-Reveals-16-Trillion-in-Secret-Bailouts ) then when we are strong again we can help someone else. if they were my grandkids they would all be standing in the corner till they can behave and act like adults. if they were my employees they would have been fired decades ago.. every time one comes up for reelection they bring up thirty year old dead issues that everyone with half a brain would know they will table the minute they get in office.. take the new dead issue subject of defunding planned parenthood.. ( oh the Rowe vs wade supreme court issue) they didn’t do it for eternity or for ten years or twenty years or until the planned parenthood could prove that it wasn’t happening. they didn’t defund them ten years ago or twenty years ago. no they defunded them till the election and personally I question whether or not they can do anything about an issue that was passed by the supreme court.. but then the issue won’t really be heard about till the next elections campaign season when they will dredge up this dead horse to drag around because it gets a lot of sentiment from the public.. then take illegal immigrants..Oh what this was a major problem since before i started shaving.. and a major issue in the election campaigns during the carter administration and reagan administration etc etc…. Logic says you will not be able to ship out twenty million people plus their kids.. so what is the logical step to do.. you could.. but we don’t want to go there..because we would be going Adolph on them and the companies that hire them.. seize all the assets of any company that hires an illegal immigrant and imprison the corporate heads and the people that hired them.. we can’t do that.. you can’t just ship them so why not tax them.. no benefits till they get their citizen ship but they have to pay a non resident tax and all the other taxes that every wage earner has to ship back or imprison those that have criminal back grounds.. but wait.. our industrial complex has been running from the usa so fast so they don’t’ have to pay any form of taxes on goods and services.. shouldn’t they.. and why do we have to take people that don’t want to live in their own country but want us to live by their laws. OH do I blame congress.. yes.. they should all be voted out.. not just this time but for three elections till the hint goes around that they need to go to that big city actually sit at a desk and do something.. bills brought up should be put to a vote during regular business hours and by the majority of the members on the floor.. that way everyone will want to be there so nothing gets in without them knowing they should write the bills and then read them.. if they are to lazy to look at the words then hire a reader to sit in front of them and read it to them.. audio books do hire reader.. then why do we the public blame congress.. hmmm..
Very punnacious writing this morning, for sure.
Regarding drones – those very useful and dangerous toys, I agree in principle, but differ in the details. An individual should have the right to use a drone within limits over his own property, even if near an airport, but the limits would need to be much more constrained, like 50′ AGL within the first mile, and 100′ AGL for the next four miles around an airport. I see nothing wrong with having the current limit of 400′ AGL for model airplanes beyond that.
As a pilot I’m also concerned about skydiving drop zones over airports. This can be a bit scary when the airport is also open and uncontrolled.
Most voters aren’t aware of another of Ronald Reagan’s major contribution to American Society – raiding Social Security……
“Ronald Reagan and The Great Social Security Heist”
what really surprises me .. it that we as a civilization have bought into a ponzi scheme that is so big so massive that it has overpowered everything since the history of the human race. Men and countries have died protecting it . that no one has ever realized that it is just a scam..a plan designed and implimented by a few that wanted to be ever powerful over every one in the world.. and we as a civilization are all bound to this scheme to. It amazes me that we have literally sold our souls for a number.. sold to us by some guy wearing plaid pants and a green fur coat and hat with a feather in it and a gold tooth.. saying.. just looky this.. isn’t it nice..
We always favor September for Flying vacations as prices are dropping due to the tourist season closing and mostly the weather in the States is decent and all parks and off flyways are still open and useable It is our favorite time to fly in our neck of BC lots of places to land and have a good time and a picnic or two. Besides I speak Canadian well as it is my Native language .
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Sometimes you should check your facts. For example, the fact that the House of Representatives came under the Rethuglicans (I think that’s what you call them) immediately after those rare two sessions of Congress that cut the Federal work force. If I recall my high school civics lessons, all spending begins in the House of Representatives. That would mean the spending and regrowth of government cranked right up again as soon as Gingrich and Boehner took the gavel. I rate these as “swing and a miss.”
for some reason I can’t copy what you wrote and have it appear…. a bug in the comment function
What I was criticizing was your statement that the so-called “second part of the problem: the Demoncrats come along on a good story and do a little “window-dressing” on the front end but as soon as they get their mits on power the same problems come back.”
“Repugnican?”
No, no, no… I prefer “Repukelican” and “Democrap”
“Demoncrap” rolls the two versions together. Or there’s always Republicraps & Demonplicans, since they’re hard to tell apart after they get to DC, the world capital of broken promises.
And I prefer “Douchebag Circus” to “District of Corruption”… though both are technically correct. So is “Das Corporation”.
Republicans talk about job creation, about preserving family farms and defending small businesses, and reforming Medicare and Social Security. But almost without exception, every proposal put forth by GOP lawmakers and presidential candidates is intended to preserve or expand tax privileges for the wealthiest Americans. And most of their plans, which are presented as common-sense measures that will aid all Americans, would actually result in higher taxes for middle-class taxpayers and the poor. With 14 million Americans out of work, and with one in seven families turning to food stamps simply to feed their children, Republicans have responded to the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression by slashing inheritance taxes, extending the Bush tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires, and endorsing a tax amnesty for big corporations that have hidden billions in profits in offshore tax havens. They also wrecked the nation’s credit rating by rejecting a debt-ceiling deal that would have slashed future deficits by $4 trillion – simply because one-quarter of the money would have come from closing tax loopholes on the rich.
Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-the-gop-became-the-party-of-the-rich-20111109#ixzz3p7IGL8Ty
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http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-the-gop-became-the-party-of-the-rich-20111109