Jobs: Location Matters; Masks: Stupid Partisans

We have two “stories that matter” in addition to the continually soars, jacked-up-on-cash shit-show previously known as the Stock Market.  Normally, given the serious hit to both employment  and economic activity, stocks would decline to lower levels of equilibrium as risk and reward rebalance.

However, with the (not really)  Federal (and with no…) Reserve, save the “full faith and credit…”  (as a right to tax you, the Citizen) you are living through the Hollowing Out of the former World Reserve Currency.

The domino-like collapse will take some time but it will result in a global restructuring and the slow letting-go of Globalism into reconstituted Trading Blocks.

The process, near as we can estimate, will go something like this:

  • Money’s purchasing power will be diluted as  excess cash is pumped into the economy.
  • Very short-term, there will be a vibrant price-spike as excess cash bids up goods with “utility value.”
  • Under the surface, however, the amount of  foreign goods that may be purchased with the former reserve currency (“dollars”) will descend.  As a result?  Overseas buyers will demand more excess cash, realizing that when they need to “flip cash into goods” there will be a higher discount rate.
  • This becomes rising prices of imported foreign goods.  Which (and there’s a silver lining here) will be a major incentivization to on-shore manufacturing.
  • This is fine with China, however.  Armed with their “kinder, gentler, more “narrated” version of Soviet-style buffer states (sold to the gullible West as the Belt and Road Initiative), the Chinese will be in position to build a large middle class.
  • The U.S., faced with the return of excess cash will eventually increase taxes (dramatically!) at a time of falling employment.  Due to a wide, developing pattern of lower consumption (lockdown, rising prices) as well as sham climate change, and robotization.

Sizing all this up? My first point this morning is to direct you to the story about how “Sex robots will ‘fundamentally change human existence’ after revolutionary upgrades.”  The takeaways are that a) sex robots are getting smarter, while b) humans are getting dumber.  And in the end, we’re all f*cked.

(Say, Mr. Chipper is  in a mood this morning, ain’t he?)

Jobs Data:  Location Matters

Before we get into the monthly job-spinning, let’s all hold hands for a minute and consider the detail level quietly released by the Labor Department Wednesday.  We do this in order to appreciate how totally uneven massive unemployment is in the current “stage of events.”

“Unemployment rates were higher in May than a year earlier in all 389 metropolitan areas, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A total of 109 areas had jobless rates of less than 10.0 percent and 16 areas had rates of at least 20.0 percent. Nonfarm payroll employment decreased over the year in 357 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in 32 areas. The national unemployment rate in May was 13.0 percent, not seasonally adjusted, up from 3.4 percent a year earlier.”

And remember how tourism collapsing is “doing in” places?  A couple of salient lines in the report:

“Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI, had the highest unemployment rate in May, 33.4 percent, followed by Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ, 32.4 percent. Logan, UT-ID, had the lowest unemployment rate, 4.8 percent.”

Gambling’s Death?

Remember all those glorious road trips Elaine and I used to take?  Driving across the country and having marvelous meals and our share of winnings in casinos?  We may see a dramatic change in the American propensity to gamble thanks to the virus.

And in “Sin City”  Not so much (out of town, anyway) sinning going on, says the data:

“Of the 51 metropolitan areas with a 2010 Census population of 1 million or more, Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, had the highest unemployment rate in May, 29.0 percent. The next highest rates were in Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI, 23.7 percent, and Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL, 22.6 percent. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ, had the lowest jobless rate among the large areas, 8.3 percent, followed by Birmingham-Hoover, AL, and Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT, 8.7 percent each.”

This all gets to what I’ve always considered “The Big Hole” in economic thought.  Convention holds there to be microeconomics (as in an individual business or small geographic region) and macroeconomics (the whole McGillah).

One of the notions on Peoplenomics is that there is a modelable structure of complex interactions which define how economic “upset” ripples through the economy.

As Hawaii is experiencing, a collapse of tourism hurts every island location.  It ripples-back to the Mainland, too.  It factors in airline, cars rental, hotel chains, and food service sectors that “play in the Islands” and those once-upon-a cruise ship lines, as well.

Economic Ripples 101

It’s very much a “knock-on” process.  Done long enough, it will transform the “virtuous cycle” of the economy into the “vicious cycle.”  With the Fed gambling our economic future  on the chance that if they can throw enough paper to the crowds, we won’t notice disaster, until after the election.  Though, our ponder now is whether this stock market can continue “subdividing” its wave-count until the latter days of August, which could then propel us into utter economic collapse this fall. Which will install Slow Joe, and leave the TDS crowd with nothing to whine about.

Well, except for the immediate impeachment drive on Biden for his role in Ukraine, but that’s next year’s grist.

We living not as free-thinkers, but as stooges and partisans.  Our alternative is to look at the data, pass on social media almost entirely, and chart ourselves an independent course based on dead reckoning and skimpy, manipulated and massaged data.

So much for today’s foreplay:

Jiggering Unemployment Data

We begin by recalling the “numerator” is the top number in a fraction.  The “denominator” is the bottom.  Since we don’t trust government figures when comes to employment reports, the ONLY number we really focus on is the total number of people employed.

That’s because the RATE can be jacked-around by any number of 2-bit bureaucrats who choose…

Here’s how the game is played:  Say you have 158-million people in the Labor Force and 20-million are unemployed.  Simple arithmetic says 138-million are working.  Oh, and 20 million divided by 158-million is a 12.658% unemployment rate.

How do we make that look better?  Shade the workforce numbers higher.  Because if we could just add 10-million to the workforce (168-million) than the same number of unemployed (20-million) becomes an unemployment rate of only 11.9%.  Seeing how this works?

Partying Like It’s 1999

What most people fail to internalize – as we look at an uncertain future – is how massive the virus impacts have been.  Do you realize we have wiped out all jobs gains since 2000?

This is the “elephant in the room.”  Trump can talk all day about MAGA and the like, but he had the great historical misfortune to be on the bridge of The Economic Titanic when we hit this iceberg.

Problem is, we’re leaking below the waterline now.  In ways many people can’t see.

Life in the Fifties – Flashback

A colleague and I wrote a long  economics book (point-counterpoint kind of thing) that we never published.  But, in it, we agreed that Peak Prosperity for America likely came in 1960, or so.  

The problem?  In a nutshell it’s that we stopped being a “goods economy” in 1954.  That is, up until then, we had more people producing “real goods” than we had “people waiting on them” – in other words, the  service sector.

My colleague and I went back and forth…how many  service jobs could one worker support?  We thought between 1 and 2 service employees for each goods producer would be “reasonable.”  That was then…

Just before the virus hit, the services sector was employing 131.26-million while manufacturing (Thanks Robots!  Thanks Asia! Thanks idiots in Washington!) was just 12.85-million.  Converting, that’s about 10.2 people  serving the goods for EACH goods producer.  And you wonder while the National Debt’s piling up?

LIfe in the 1950’s

My buddy  The Major and I came up in the middle class, well-integrated neighborhood called Beacon Hill in Seattle.  Pick a race, pick a religion, a cuisine…it was ALL on Beacon Hill.  We enjoyed  all cultures Our dads both worked – his managed a bank, mine ran a fire station.  His mom did hair, mine answered the switchboard at Seattle City Light.

The families lived well – got good vacations, and rode the bus to go downtown. Men wore white shirts, sensible ties and haircuts.  Women wore dresses.  And we didn’t go out much.  Families worked on their homes.   The Major’s dad was excellent at home-building and his mom was a great artist.  My mom canned when vegetables and fruits were “running” in the Pike Place Market.  Homemade garlic dills? OMG.

Occasionally, we’d go bike-riding – 20-50 mile rides.  At the end of which, my record was 2 orders of fries and 6 cheeseburgers plus a chocolate shake.   Dag’s ort  Dick’s was the only sensible choice for “fast food.”  For Chinese, you went to Chinatown.  For Italian, you went to “garlic gulch” (Rainer Valley).

People  worked.  They  saved.  They weren’t  waited on They canned.  They did their own nails. About 20% of homes had small gardens.  Taxes were modest.  Invention was high and workmanship was supreme.  There’s a reason I favor  real solid steel tools in my shop over most modern “disposables.”

Don’t look now, but we might all be going back there.  We are, in my judgement, well into Economic Overshoot territory now.  But time will tell.  Been wrong before, but 10-servers for each “goods producer?”  Hard to believe than can pencil-out, forever.

Now the Data

Enough of the lead-in and contextualizing.   Dope-up on the Happy Talk here:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 11.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In June, employment in leisure and hospitality rose sharply. Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, education and health services, other  services, manufacturing, and professional and business services. “

Dow Futures were up more than 400 points.  We may have dead people stacking up, but hey!  Look at them jobs!

Still, economic reality is?

  • Total number of people working is? 142.182-million.
  • Total in Services? 4.263-million
  • Total Goods Producers? 504-thousand.
  • The Services / Goods ratio:  1 Goods Producer down to 8.4 service workers.
  • And the number of all “simply estimated into existence” in the CES Birth Death Model? 295,000 with 220,000 of that coming in Leisure and Hospitality workers.  Take some aspirin and call me in the morning.

As the  Moody Blues sang (Nights in White Satin): “Just what the truth is
I can’t say any more..”

Trade Gap Higher, Too

Dandy…just peachy-dandy:

“The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $54.6 billion in May, up $4.8 billion from $49.8 billion in April, revised.    “

Well, what did you expect, for crying out loud?  We don’t make much, and we have fewer servants waiting on the few remaining workers.  Shopkeeper economies do tend to collapse, you know…  Just not yet

Masked Partisans

Heading into this Fourth of July weekend (is it Miller Time, yet?) we have found a very good paper you might want to read if you’re still undecided on whether to wear a mask, or not.

You know, some are calling it Cult of the Mask, others decry public health risk.  And likely the reason is the data is not entirely clear, except it is.

Start with the paper “Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures.”   Then, click over to Figure 2 here and observe that despite what some misrepresent, the data tilts modestly toward wearing a mask.

Elaine and I are still Cloroxing everything coming home from the store. Stand upwind of people.  And, George II (firefighter/EMT son) won’t get his CV-19 test results until today.  He’s got two fellow firefighters who are positive, though not on his shift.

While we respect the opinions of people who don’t wear masks, we point to the data and note how it tilts to mask wearing Sure, you may not wear a mask and remain healthy, or wear one and get the virus any way.

But, to us, it’s a lot like going into a casino.  Do you put your bet with the House or against it.  The “House” in this case argues for the mask.  So does our age and, frankly, cowardice since we’re in our seventies.

And in Japan, possibly the most “mask-happy place on Earth?”  A mere 18,913 total cases.  Whereas our “freedom” to not wear masks has netted us 2.687-million cases.  Japan has had just 977 deaths, as of this morning.  We’re sitting over 128-thousand.  Freedom at work, or stupidity?  You make the call.

Ya’ll have fun with bullshit “mask partisanship.”  We bet with the House. Just remember, there’s no such thing as 5% dead.  Markets and Life, we always bet on the data.

But there’s gotta be losers, I suppose…  We’re still rolling with “First do no death.”

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

author avatar
George Ure
Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share UrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/

57 thoughts on “Jobs: Location Matters; Masks: Stupid Partisans”

  1. you did it good on the old 4th july .. what a stich up that was about warning being long .. nah .. just gotta sit back and wait .. words are not extreme enough to describe this .. but there must be some god , somewhere , ready to punish with everything. and before you patriots and do gooders jump up and start your planned attacks on truth and fact from a guy like me .. remember .. I could not give a rats posterior .. sounds better with ass .. so hoot holler , party , covid , and get your market up another 1000 or 2 .. happy days

  2. George, what are your thoughts about the velocity of money with the current shutdowns of food service locations and the entire leisure travel industry? Do you think the Vm is now reflecting different measures of the economy?

  3. Here’s what I think I know (or believe):

    1) C-19 is highly communicable.
    2) I tick some of the “co-morbidity” boxes.
    3) I hate The Mask. I’m not claustrophobic — but it
    makes me feel closed-in and uncomfortable.
    4) Outdoors, in warm weather (here) it really makes
    one feel a LOT hotter.
    5) A mask may disturb the O2 / CO2 balance in
    normal respiration. (Maybe: maybe not much.
    Depends who one reads and believes.)
    6) It should be a purely medical issue, NOT a
    political issue.
    7) Surgeons wear such masks to reduce the chance
    of contaminating the surgical field. (Reasonable.)
    If it was ineffectual, they probably wouldn’t.
    8) I don’t want conflicts with virtue signaling Karens
    in public. Nobody “wins.”

    So, I wear one when I go into a store. Otherwise,
    I mostly don’t.

    • WE HAVE A WINNER!!!

      Ure doesn’t wear a mask at the ranch. BUT

      When I handle mail, packages, etc, I scrub.
      Neighbor leaves eggs? Clorox wipe.
      Store? More bleach-spray before going in the house.
      Neighbor comes over? 6-feet and I stay UPWIND
      No hand shakes
      No hugs
      Shoes off at the door. Bonus: Clean floors, but we did that on the boat, too…
      No disease!

      • Yeah, I’m with William and George on this. I have a table in the garage with a couple germicidal UV tubes lamps on a stand that the mail goes under for several minutes at least, and packages get unpacked… and stuff gets wiped down with disinfectant wipes…. and I get washed up in the laundry room out there. I just don’t socialize in person. (Ham radio works fine!) And masked for stores and needed shopping… with hand sanitizer afterwards. Extra masks, hand sanitizer, and wipes are kept in the car for shopping trips.
        “Just because I’m paranoid, doesn’t mean they’re not out to kill me!”

      • “When I handle mail, packages, etc, I scrub.”
        Yup.

        “Neighbor leaves eggs? Clorox wipe.
        Store? More bleach-spray before going in the house.”
        Bleach is your friend. I use pool shock.

        “Neighbor comes over? 6-feet and I stay UPWIND”
        Same here — damn’ difficult in a “light & variable” wind…

        “No hand shakes
        No hugs”
        I disinfect after a “fist bump.”

        Old, young, healthy or not, we only get one chance with this bug. Carelessness can be fatal. I choose not to spin that revolver cylinder.

        WarGames is a philosophical masterpiece…

    • I don’t wear a mask at all here in FL. So far, I have not been denied admission to any store and no one has approached me. Of course, I am a spunky 60 something former Marine Corps officer, so I don’t think a millenial is likely to intimidate me. I also don’t social distance. I refuse to be shaken down by all the entire Covid 19 nonsense. We destroyed an economy for a huge psyop that could have been taken care of by protecting some vulnerable elderly – which I am not even in my 60’s.

  4. velocity of money .. well I aint George but my bit .. does it really matter in a communist controlled state ? does anything matter except for USSA ?

  5. Discussing the “wearing a mask or not” issue with a expat living in Thailand the other day, he made a good point when i told him that observation study seams to point that wearing one does help (just look at the cases and the death in most Asian country i said). He told me then: “maybe… but remember that in these cultures, they don’t “kiss” friends and family and mostly never shake hands.” That’s efficient social distancing on a daily basis… and a factor that might make “wearing a mask” seems to be efficient. I don’t know the answer yet but it does make me wonder.

  6. Remember the other side of mask wearing. To protect others from yourself if you have the virus and don’t know or have it and cannot quarantine. Here is the crux. I wear a mask and I will not interact with anyone else not sheltering with me who is not wearing a mask. I wash my hands or use hand sanitizer after leaving any public interactions. This makes sense, I don’t know how they take precautions who else they interact with or if they are infected. So if you want my business or my interactions with your business. Everyone there must have a mask and that mask must cover their mouth and nose. I have to believe you are running your establishment with some healthy processes, in protecting your employees and customers. The only way the economy can start running better is is everyone has that comfort level to interact, even if social distanced. So one can be proud, they don’t wear a mask, but it will drive other customers like me away from that establishment and encourage us to continue to hunker down just that much longer.

  7. HAhahaha – U funny Mr Ure, U funny.

    The data/study Ure cited says right there in the Abstract “..these measures DID NOT support a substantial effect on transmission of the lab confirmed infuenza”

    What gives – pre-existing conditions? Hmmmm

    – Can it be U have become one big fat bastard during the clampdown..can U say morbidly obese? That would certainly explain Ure behavior..baa baa fat sheep? Its a blood thing, not a lung thing says the otterly deplorable reader.

    How many Microns large is covert19 virus? – got a face mask to go with that n95 mask?

    Thirtythou on the Dow is prolly light – more like FORTYTHOU on the DOW.

    – what with the beloved FED buying FOREIGN Company Bonds with US Taxpayer dollars to pump up the US Economy or do they realize those dollars are Losing value every minute of everyday…BTC = $9250 this AM.
    “..baby, baby, baby, light my fire
    I wanna take you higher” -Sly & FS

    ECD favorite Holiday is here ! Fireworks, BIG BOOMS, Buds&Suds, Bikini’s, BBQ, Burgers&Dogs, Women’s beach volleyball,FAMILY, dogs hiding in the bathtub from loud Fireworks – Flag be waving PROUD on the ECD’s flag pole this weekend – KABOOM.

    “Fight the Horror of this mental load, …the world is a manacled place..”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHHBDK-vq0E

  8. Hi George,

    I respect your right to wear a mask anytime you want. I happen to believe the whole mask craze is silly though. You can find papers against mask wearing just like you can find them for wearing. One example is here: https://medium.com/@thealchemicpharmd/why-i-dont-wear-a-mask-93342d4c6715

    What I have noticed about most people wearing masks is that they are constantly touching their mask and face while adjusting the mask. I believe they are touching there face much more often than they would if they did not have a mask on. I still respect there right to wear a mask as long as they don’t tell me I have to wear one. I believe Ted Nugent nailed it on the head with the following quote regarding Covid:

    “Why do I have to stay home just because ??? are scared? How about ??? stay home…. ?? stay in ???? house indefinitely, ??? wear a mask, ??? socially distance yourself from me, ??? avoid restaurants, ??? avoid baseball games, ??? stay off the roads, ??? avoid malls and beaches and parks, ??? believe the made-up death numbers, ??? believe the media hype, ??? Get your toxic vaccine while avoiding vitamin C, sunshine and the things God gave us to actually heal.

    I’m done playing ???? dumb game. We are not “all in this together.” I’m not wearing ???? dumb tin foil hat anymore. I’m no longer going to be a prisoner of your fear. I’m no longer staying in my house or catering to ??? because ??? are scared. I’m not wearing a mask and I’m not staying 6 feet away from you anymore because I’m not afraid of you. You are not my enemy and if I get sick, it’s not because of ???, it’s because of me and my system, which not only have I been addressing for quite some time, but I also know how to treat if I get sick.”

    Have a great 4th!

    • Just a fine point here, Scott:
      When Ure goes looking for data (having read the book “Think Like Doctor”) I look to the source and the creds.

      Thus, when people send me (pardon this) shit from the MSM and audience harvesters, Ure goes back over his “Think Like a Dcotr memory. One of the points is “Be super clear on info sources.”

      Take that Medium article. Click the link to the cite and it’s a 2012 paper. Not current. As I said this morning, look at the day in Japan. They haven’t cracked a thousand deaths yet – 977 – and they wear masks.

      Then look to the author. Is he a doc? Infectious disease guru? Nope: “Medium member since April 2019 · Personal Growth, Psychology, Life and the universe · “Your playing small does not serve the world.”
      Medium member since April 2019·Editor of Econix” Which is? A “resource hub for entrepreneurs” and an “Airbnb Superhost”?
      No, I don’t see where the logo (The Alchemist/Pharmacist) came from – as a credential is not cited. But one must ask – with Airbnb bookings in the shitter from CV-19 is other motivations are (pardon this) “masked.”

      OM2 and I have been friends for a very long time – I respect him and his views and he respects mine. As it should.
      But, we are both hard-headed old sonsabitches in that when he’s running an offshore platform as a drilling engineer, or I’m doing “real research” both of us have extraordinarily high thresholds “of proof.”

      Fact is: He’s out putting up fending at his place and I’ve been out “yarding” already and we both probably sweat more in a day that most “slickers” sweat in a year. Heat burns out a lot of crap from the old body…

      My point is that experientially, I have chosen to wear masks because in MY WORLD they are not a sign of anything but good sense.

      1. I wear a mask when cutting aluminum in my shop.
      2. I wear a mask AND run dust collection when woodworking
      3. I practice air control when welding.
      4. I have a history of asthma so I’m in an elevated risk category
      5. I take allergy medication (Singular) to aid in breathing
      6. I’m over 71 – halfway to 72. Elaine’s a few years ahead of me.

      We don’t take ANY advice from online story-tellers. Many will start with a conclusion and then “back-fill the data for fit.”

      There’s also the matter of “Who do you trust?”

      When it comes to medical matters, if you’re not a doctor (and I have friends who are) your sources and opinions are your own and I hope do not sway anyone else. Because you’re into a region of “medicine” where the first rule is “First do no…” what? Harm.

      There’s a reason I’m still alive, as is my son – still waiting on his CV-19 results. Sure, the Ure’s do what some would consider “a bit out of the ordinary…” Son have about 1,300 skydives (class C) I gave up counting hours as PIC in single engine aircraft. We live the fast life. BUT – and this is totally the point here: We get the BEST goddam advice we cvan find.

      For us that’s PUBMED and our doctors.

      There is no point in even having a doctor is you’re not going to listen to their advice.

      Also remember what we learned in the climate scam: Many times the “researchers” will cite “facts” that aren’t supportive of their case…knowing that most people are too lazy to read the studies. And finally…

      There is a mountain of difference between our N100 and N95’s and a cloth mask. If a study is about cloth masks,.; I shit-can it on the spot.

      For really bad-nasty shit in the shop, I use a Scott (as in AirPack) tactical full face with a fresh chemical cartridge. Not a cloth mask – many of which are a joke. Luck to get down to 5 microns with some.

      Like I said, Ure’s threshold of proof may be different than yours.

      • I generally agree, with some caveats. Peak Prosperity has had a long running series on youtube with long talks by Chris Masterson, a pathologist; though he usually talks about economics. One of the most important takeaways was a study that indicated that the effectiveness of masks was exponentially improved as the percent of people wearing them increased. Above 60% made a significant difference and above 80% made a massive difference! If only 10% wear them they’re not that effective, unless you’re wearing a respirator level mask(with exhaust filtering). There appears to be more evidence that the virus is transmitted well via surfaces, so hand washing and sanitation has its place.

        When I’m working on a roof or out on my property, I never wear a mask. There are no people within many hundreds of feet(at least) and there’s nobody to either give or receive the virus. The sun here is extreme and the UV does kill all viruses. In a store, I generally wear a mask, though buying coffee at a gas station is more problematic. The governess here has dared to up the ante with $100 potential fines for not wearing masks. It’s anybody’s guess if it will be enforced.

        Masks do have social downsides and I’ve noticed that wearing one changes others’ behavior. In particular, I’m perceived as more of an object and less of a human. No doubt, political subversive types will try to use masking to their advantage.

        What does matter is keeping up the vitamin C, D from sun or pills, and zinc, at least, along with everything else for optimum health. The best approach is the one not advertised, along with blending in public. Standing out is a peculiarly American flaw.

      • It’s worth considering the names and location of the authors…and who lives next door.

        Graphs (data) vs ‘conclusions’ (Impressions).

      • This is the advice on masks from the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, the same group that is suing the FDA to stop the agency’s repression of hydroxychloroquine:

        https://aapsonline.org/mask-facts/

        Our governor just issued a mask-up order. Although it has no legal teeth, there has been plenty of peer pressure (mostly from the left) to the effect of “we know what’s best, so shut up and do what you’re told”. That, i think, is the main cause of the backlash that’s happening.

        If absolutely required, I’ll have to go along, but I’m under no illusion of these pieces of cloth being the magic bullet its proponents seem to think it is. This virus will not cease to be a problem until either enough people have immunity to stop its spread, or it mutates to a less harmful form. I suppose a really potent antiviral drug could wipe it out, but I can’t see big pharma letting a potential cash cow be disposed of so easily.

      • “My point is that experientially, I have chosen to wear masks because in MY WORLD they are not a sign of anything but good sense.”

        AMEN GEORGE…..

        I was wearing masks before masks were needed.. same reasons.. I always have a cough.. its the farm dust and allergies but hey.. that is the smell of money in these parts.. wood working painting.. or working with caustics..what ever the activity is I wear one.

  9. I don’t have clue why the words “you” or “your” was changed to question marks when I pasted the quote from Ted Nugent but I am sure you figured out what he was saying.

  10. Spent several days this past week in the viral soup South of Ft. Worth on “va-cay” with the family. Just about every brick and mortar store was shut down with few exceptions but we did manage to find a couple of dine-in restaurants to patronize. Mask wearing became mandatory the second day we were there so I’ve got my “face bra” and wear it where I have to. We’ll see if anyone in the family comes down with anything in the next couple of weeks. “So far so good” they all said on the way down the cliff face.

  11. Yesterday there was a demonstration in Los Angeles, and while it seemed like most wore masks, it was waaay too much togetherness! no 6 foot clearance, and yelling slogans negates the masks. just saying.

  12. Yesterday I posted some “mask wearing” art put out years ago – too coincidental to ignore for me. The link was taken down within a very short time. However, Jim Stone has it on his site, which I found with Tineye and following links: http://82.221.129.208/.vi7.html

    Interesting this entire shortage of coins – never had folks asking me to use a credit card until this week, because no coinage in the tills…? I still have my 5 gallon jugs of coinage – just never took it to the bank…

    Off to work on the fences!

    • Many banks no longer cash in change. My personal and company bank don’t. The new company bank does. Go figure.

    • I buy workable bullion..copper nickle, iron, etc.
      Gold historically hasnt held much value. The uses for it are very limited.. where iron is highly useful so is copper..
      During the Weimar depression glass had great value. So did wood and coal.
      When this first started it was bleach and toilet paper.
      There are still limits on toilet paper and bleach is tough to find..
      I’m working to replenish my stock..and am finding limits..

  13. You know George you took me back to a better time.growing up in the forties and fifties,everyone in town had a garden, a cow or two,a pig and a few chickens,took their excess milk down to the cheese factory where half the kids in town would gather when the curd was ready,and a lot of hands would dip into the vat to scoop out hand fulls of warm curd.Perhaps so called advancement isn’t all its cracked up to be,perhaps its little but delusion as we were sold a pack of goods and still are, as society which is the bedrock of any nation wanders aimlessly around as if its lost all purpose,lost all faith in everything.Will it come back again I think it will as the people find that what they gave up was worth much more then what they have today….

  14. Hi George, I am having a hard time understanding the CV19 situation.
    Even if you test positive, so what.
    I, like another of your readers do not understand why you take the official numbers as real.
    If we tested for most bacteria and or virus we would find most people a carrier without symptoms.
    That being said I do not understand the pro mask stance.
    All masks, even N95 unless custom fitted like the one George Jr has will not stop all if any virus
    or bacteria. It is even written on the packaging. What is a given is the stopping of O2 and the rebreathing of CO2 and whatever else your body in it’s God given intelligence wants to expelled from your body.

    • For one, I take them with many grains of salt. But my son picks up victims and cases and yep…they die.
      On the virus, the N95 will provide little (some) reduction at the virus size level. Where they rock is in air suspended droplets. The whole point of a mask (custom fit, checked with a handful of saccharine tossed in the air) is to reduce the viral load so the body’s natural defenses can resist. Augmented by C, zinc, D (mixed) and Melatonin at night…

    • The goal is to reduce the risk of myself being infected. It is a very simple thing wearing a mask, with a pretty low cost, to reduce the risk of getting or spreading the virus. Don’t let perfection interfere with improvement. My wife and myself must care for elderly parents and family with comorbidity risk. Though we are pretty healthy, staying virus free allows us to continuing caring for those who are at a very high risk of a bad outcome if they get infected. It honestly baffles me why people are fighting taking such simple precautions. I have never supported government lockdown or mask wearing laws. I also have no issue with businesses requiring mask or other precautions they believe in. They also should get to decide their own policy. We should own ourselves, our businesses, and take our own risks. But at times like this we need to put on our big boy pants on and do the things that keep from making things worse. Your wearing a mask may keep me from being infected, and help me continue to fulfill my responsibilities to care for my family.

      Making laws that people just ignore also adds no value and just provides more grist to the problems of to many laws and to much interactions with the police state.

    • “Even if you test positive, so what.”

      Unfortunately…that’s a common ..thought.
      Why have house insurance or car insurance etc. Why have AED’s in public places..

      The thing is that you don’t see the need until it affects you or someone you love..
      That is why I have two AED’s one in the garage one in the house.. you hope you never have to use it.. but statistics show the odds are you’ll be on the toilet or overdoing manual labor when it happens..

      • These things are all precautionary measures to slow the progression..

  15. Here is a “Just Be Aware” (JBA) alert for you. I’ve been reading that the Fed Reserve has declared that due to the “Pandemic” (ie an allegation against all of us peons), the FR will not be making coins available to banks while they “work on the problem” (seen NYT, June 25).

    Here’s the JBA alert which might or might not be true for all stores, but here is what happened to me this morning.

    I made my weekly trip to our local chain grocery store. The total charge was $59.09. I paid with cash I was due 91cents change. No change was given. The cashier didn’t even blink as she shorted me the 91cents change. JBA!

    • If there’s a currency recall either for re-issuance like the Zim notes, or just so we can have a two tier system for currency controls, the coinage probably won’t change. It’s too much expense for too little return. Therefore, minimizing coins makes sense to the controllers.

      Another thought is that the coins are actually treasury money, unlike the FRNs. There may be an effort to minimize this, similar to that which withdrew all United States Notes on favor of FRNs.

      I’ll keep stacking – even the cupro-nickel slugs. Why not?

    • Lol lol lol lol…
      I am sad to say this JW but a lot of college grads besides not being able to count without a calculator have a tough time reading the daily paper to..lol lol..
      It drives me nuts at times.. during times like that that are so obvious it hurts my wife resorts to pulling my leash and choke collar so I don’t offend anyone.
      You never know who the idiot is.. the ass you offend today may be the ass you have to kiss next week..

    • “the FR will not be making coins available to banks while they “work on the problem”

      I suspect its because they see a huge correction similar to the weimer headed this way.
      In the past to keep the value of the coinage from costing more than its face value they would eliminate the metals whose price would affect the value. Copper and the penny co.es to mind and silver and the quarter..
      I think if we accelerate into a Weimar depression all coinage would be valued more than face value.

  16. “Money’s purchasing power will be diluted as  excess cashis pumped into the economy.”

    I am seeing that right now.. a 3 lb.. package of hamburger patties 30 dollars.. I went and bought bananas, gallon of milk, bacon, buns, and a few other small items all of that in january would have been between 25 and thirty dollars. Two days ago it was just shy 70 dollars.. and we haven’t even begun to sink. Those cost increases go back on the food chain line and forward..
    Consider our power companies increase last fall..it wasn’t that much. BUT.. considering the average employee that modest increased about 4 cents an hour..employers didnt raise their wages the four cents. So that left the hourly wage employees to reduce inessential spending that much. Brick and mortar just like a household have set expenses.
    It’s a vicious cycle. The increase I seen was all on essential items..
    Will we see million or ten million dollar loaf of bread once this gets underway.

  17. George,
    -Excellent economic analysis. Amazing how closely you (independently) are tracking Roubini (who’s last missive suggested that UBI to support macro demand as the wealth gap dramatically worsens would likely come to pass to stave of 1930s style unrest).
    -But I think your ‘Standing on the bridge of the Titanic’ analogy is overly generous to Trump. He was the one [redact – not responsive to story, useless political blaming – g].
    -And now this [redact for more bash – g].
    Best, Mike.

  18. George,

    I’d be more impressed if you had cited a link from an independent medical/epidemiological source that was not affiliated with the Center for Disease Control. Yes, there are plenty of examples online. The below is an informative one, and while the article is not written by a medical doctor, the author does a literature review of medical research done over the past two decades or so on virus transmission and specifically on the use of masks relative to this.

    https://www.sott.net/article/434796-The-Science-is-Conclusive-Masks-and-Respirators-do-NOT-Prevent-Transmission-of-Viruses

  19. I have been wearing a mask since day 1 of the SIP. Grocery stores, Home Depot and other essential Businesses have not let people in without one since March 17th. But when I walk on the street, in any local urban town or city, I have my mask on.

    Even had some washable masks made courtesy of some of my daughter friends. The only time I don’t wear a mask is when I go running…and even then, I Try to find remote trails and to be safe, I strap that mask to my wrist and if I am on a narrow trail, and see someone coming my way, I put it on for common courtesy to the other people. The air I exhale while running is exerting particles at a rapid pace, so why wouldn’t I quickly put on that mask?

    Going out in public without a mask Is basically giving a middle finger to those that take it seriously or may be immuno-compromised. Who wants to be that guy?

    Not me. Wear a damn mask for at least the next month. Let’s sto- this damn virus during the hot July and August months. .

  20. “Trump can talk all day about MAGA and the like, but he had the great historical misfortune to be on the bridge of The Economic Titanic when we hit this iceberg.”

    You know. Because of Covid19..it basically erased all of the good things that the president was able to achieve even with a congress fighting him the whole way..
    Now nasty N is eerily quiet.. people that can’t see past the bold narcissistic manner that he shows are unable to see the wisdom of what he has been able to accomplish. They forget he isn’t a politician there aren’t any pushed puff speeches..
    Unfortunately I think the puff daddies ranting about his faults and not pointing out his strengths may win.. get old sleepy into office. Give nasty and the boys their shot at the title..
    Dump a shiztload of water on the table.. let those that dodnt make their months expenses and those without a job a meager chance to push it a couple of months. Let sleepy joe and nasty nancy have their shot.. we here at least know where this Is heading..you would have to be totally naive to not see it coming..
    The boat will sink..unfortunately for the vast majority of us with a dependance on them. We will have to figure something out..
    It’s where millionaires are broken down. Poor enslaved

  21. That reported Maui unemployment stat at 33% is still low. The state unemployment agency is running on overload and there are many more cases ‘pending’ that they have not gotten to yet. Yes, Hawaii was topheavy dependent upon tourism, and tourists arrivals are now down 98.9% from last year. An informal local newspaper poll of workers here on the Big Island showed that some 65% of workers here are unemployed now. Many small businesses that serviced tourists will never reopen. I don’t know what will happen around September when unemployment benefits expire… just in time for the second covid wave. Already we are seeing ‘cluster spikes’ from family gatherings.

  22. Anti maskers

    I, I, I, me, me, me. Typical American. Only worried about themselves. Not a care in the world if they infect a thousand people from their self centered bravado. So smart! Nobody can assail your wisdom, because you make it up as you go.

    Pro maskers

    People who don’t want to infect anyone. You’ve known them your whole life. This is your dentist, your doctor.

    Every time I read the anti mask statement I just hear a selfish, ego-slave, who thinks their opinion matters at all (that’s the first symptom of your madness). I for one am changing my views. I hope that all the anti-maskers die off now. For one simple reason, I won’t have to hear your bloated opinions any longer.

  23. They arrested Maxwell..Epstein’s associate.. they just said shes willing to negotiate and give names… to get a lesser sentence..lol lol how fast do you anticipate that it will take for her to be extremely depressed .
    I’m still waiting to see how long it takes Assange to decide hes to down to move forward ..

  24. “1960, or so. ”

    My uncle said there was a recession that began in 1958 ending in 1961. During that time he worked for Hydramatic (GM). They made transmissions.

    At a certain point all the plant staff was on a three day work. He said transmissions were stacked to the ceiling everywhere in the building. He’d go to the bar and have to buy a round “we’ve got a live one”.

    He says to jump start the economy cities/towns were told to buy cars.

  25. and a special mention to hippie insider dalio for a medal on the 4th . triple gold leverage and now gunna save the ussa .. pump boys pump .. forget technical forget the old stuff just listen to guru dalio . cures covoid 2

  26. {From memory…}

    Breathe deep, the gathering gloom
    Watch lights fade from every room
    Bedsetter people look back and lament:
    “Another day’s useless energy spent”
    Impassioned lovers wrestle as one
    Lonely man cries for love and has none
    New mother picks up and suckles her son
    Senior citizens wish they were young

    Cold-hearted orb that rules the night
    Removes the colors from our sight
    Red is gray, and yellow, white
    But we decide which is right…
    And which IS an illusion

    IIRC performed with the London Festival Orchestra.
    I haven’t heard it this Millenium.
    If it don’ end wid da gong, it ain’t da real version!

    So, other than misspelling “colours,” how’d I do…?

  27. As far as masks, and whatnot: The average House margin in Vegas is 2.6% That 2.6 percent provided enough money to build modern Las Vegas.

    If wearing a mask, increasing D3, zinc, selenium, and melatonin, affords only a 2% gain each, after a while those “2% bumps” begin to add up. Throw in vitamins C and E, and a teaspoon of chaga (a medicinal mushroom that’s stupid high in antioxidants) in a cup of coffee daily, and even without a daily chlorinated quinine dose, I’m still in the 70th percentile range for either not getting it, or not getting a severe case of it, if I do. My intention is not to avoid the virus, but merely to delay being infected until it mutates into a more-benign form.

    I wear a mask when shopping. I also TOUCH NOTHING unless I’m putting it in the cart (and then use just one hand), hold my breath when I pass someone, use just that same one hand to do payment (if paying cash I take my change in that same hand), toss the change (including bills) on my dash (and in the sun), and dose my hands and car handles when I climb in. The mask goes on the dash for natural UV decontamination, before I leave the store, the change does not get touched for two days.

    • “That 2.6 percent provided enough money to build modern Las Vegas.”

      Hey, Ray –

      That looks good on paper…. most folk who go to the gambling houses do not gamble that way.

      Ideally slipping a $20.00 spot into any machine most likely will get $15.00+ back. Most folks don’t gamble that way. They keep the $15.00 riding and get $10.00 back… and reride the $10.00…. going looking for a jackpot.

      Here’s the casino strategy:

      Best scene casino

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltURKC_V8Hg

  28. 1. now would be a good time to buy stuff made overseas. I bought a pair of hiking boots, some shoes and long pants. Don’t really need them now, but I will eventually and they don’t spoil.
    2. automation. There will be a tax on automation. To keep it simple, for each robot that replaces 10 human work hours there will be a tax of X or X% of average wages. That money will go towards universal basic income. It’s a done deal. No one knows it yet. Same as universal coverage, medicare option or single payer. Universal coverage is a done deal. We will be like most of the rest of the world eventually – a public plan with options to supplement with private plans. It will be done. It’s the only thing that makes sense. The question remaining is how long the current stakeholders can delay it. Automation tax and universal basic income are coming.

    • Yee haw! Another long-ago Peoplenomics concept is ready to arrive: I called it the Tax on Robots for replacing tax-generating humans. Excellent (he said in his best Monty Burns voice).

      And you’re DFR (dead frigging right) on tool costs which is why Ure has been inviting in what?

    • “That money will go towards universal basic income.”

      Cost: $10,400,000,000,000 (assuming $1000/wk for all pre-COVID employees and all families on welfare subsistence)

      “Universal coverage is a done deal.”

      Cost: $6,240,000,000,000 (assuming the least-cost UAW Health Plan as a baseline for coverage)

      In 2019, the government’s revenues amounted to $3.5 trillion

      —$133 billion (or 4 percent) more than in 2018. Source: CBO, Nov 7, 2019 ( https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-11/55824-CBO-MBR-FY19.pdf )

      Now, I’m somewhat lacking in “new math” skills, having learned arithmetic when it was an exact science, but I’m failing to see how subtracting $16.6 trillion dollars from $3.5 trillion dollars yields a viable budgetary number or a happy result…

      • It doesn’t Ray…

        That’s why I suspect we may see million dollar loaves of bread and 3 thousand dollar cups of coffee..
        We already have seen where a pack of toilet paper cost as much as ten ounces of silver.. and more for hand sanitizer..

        In my opinion its WIEMER HERE WE COME…
        In greece when they got rid of their form of social security the elderly were dumpster diving for food.. young women were selling their bodies for a can of soup..
        I was reading a story once in a Zimbabwe newspaper where the front page story was about a french company willing to teach the women how to market sex..
        A report once ( that has since vanished from view) about china and south american countries marketing young women to the USA .. (what was written in it made me cry ) was it gayes site or shtf where they had someone that survived Bosnia..
        In the USA it could have been avoided. Greed took us down the easy road to hell

  29. I wore masks for 8 straight years, over 1/3 of each day throughout Dental School, then in practice (I gave that crap up in 1994).

    It’s not a big deal, but keep in mind, they were discarded and new one’s used several times per day. I don’t know how crazy I am about the idea of wearing the SAME one all day, multiple days in a row, creating a nice warm, moist environment for bacteria and viruses to replicate themselves in. Or… the silly idea of using a cloth bandana which is even worse and practically useless.

    Maybe if folks carried a few around, swapped them out, and used the sanitize cycle in the wash each night it would help, but who knows. Those $1.99 surgical masks are not really meant to be used like $500 shirts you wear 15 times then take to the dry cleaners.

    The research certainly supports wearing one, but are their tests only a single blast of bacteria then gauging effectiveness, or are they put through the rigors I described… Bombardment several times a day, days in a row, same mask, etc…

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